# Middle Powers Monitor

> Weekly geopolitical intelligence brief tracking how 30 middle-power countries are responding to the fracturing of the liberal international order.

The Middle Powers Monitor (MPM) is published weekly at https://middlepowers.fyi. It analyses structural behaviour — treaty compliance, multilateral engagement, defence commitments, institutional participation — rather than rhetorical alignment. The thesis: being "pro-West" no longer reliably maps to being "pro-liberal-international-order" when the West itself is fractured.

Each brief is produced end-to-end by an AI pipeline that monitors dozens of news sources and government feeds, clusters reporting into stories, and analyses each country across five signal categories. Sources for every claim are cited in the Notes section of each country.

## Coverage

30 countries across six regions:

- **Central-Eastern Europe** (5): Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania
- **Nordic-Baltic** (6): Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Sweden
- **Western Europe** (5): France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain
- **Asia-Pacific** (5): Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia
- **Near East and South Asia** (5): Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, India, Pakistan
- **The Americas** (4): Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile

The United States, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Israel are excluded — hegemons set the field, disruptors break it, and unique cases defy the framework. Coverage selection turns on a single question: is this country doing the work of sustaining the liberal international order, or merely saying that it does?

## Analytical framework

Each country is analysed weekly across five signal categories drawn from international relations scholarship:

1. **Diplomatic alignment** — bilateral and multilateral positioning, alliance commitments, hedging behaviour
2. **Security and defence** — military posture, procurement, force deployment, intelligence cooperation
3. **Economic statecraft** — trade policy, sanctions compliance, investment flows, energy strategy
4. **Institutional engagement** — participation in international organisations, treaty compliance, norm-setting
5. **Domestic constraints** — regime stability, public opinion, electoral pressures, civil-military relations

## Brief structure

Each weekly edition contains:

- **Overview** — a three-paragraph executive essay identifying 3–5 cross-cutting developments visible only at the global level, plus cards linking to each region
- **Six regional pages** — each opens with a regional lead identifying cross-country patterns, followed by per-country sections containing narrative analysis, an "Other Stories" accordion of secondary developments, and a "Notes" accordion with full source citations
- **Watchlist** — items being tracked but not yet warranting full analytical treatment

## Methodology and provenance

MPM is produced by an automated pipeline. AI agents collect news from dozens of outlets, monitor government sources, and analyse each country across the five signal categories. Summaries and overviews are also produced by AI agents. The Monitor draws only on open sources, all of which are cited in each country's Notes section. For full methodology, see https://middlepowers.fyi/about.

The publication is free, has no paywall, and publishes every Monday. Corrections and tips are welcome at editor@middlepowers.fyi.