Regional Summary
The Militarisation of Normality Central and eastern Europe’s democracies are retooling for a war that has not yet reached most of their soil. From gold vaults to volunteer drone networks, from Baltic border controls to Romanian motorway budgets, the state machinery is being rebuilt around conflict — and the political costs are starting to show. Ukraine shows this pattern clearly. Kyrylo Budanov, the former intelligence chief, now runs the Presidential Office — security professionals have replaced political operatives at the top of civilian government. The defence ministry has given official advisory roles to two Telegram influencers, one with 156,000 followers, the other responsible for delivering more than 256,000 drones. The result is a state that has stopped pretending the line between civil society and the war effort still exists. These moves come alongside the biggest diplomatic opening yet — talks with Russia described as free of “pseudo-historical lectures” and a security-guarantees document said to be ready for signature. The contradiction is sharp: Ukraine is at once preparing to negotiate peace and building permanent war readiness into its institutions. Poland’s version is fiscal rather than institutional, but just as telling. The National Bank’s purchase of 102 tons of gold in 2025, making it the world’s largest buyer for the second straight year, suggests a country not at ease with the international monetary order. Adam Glapiński, the governor, frames the policy as building “credibility and security,” yet the gold now exceeds the European Central Bank’s own holdings. Meanwhile, the political system that must fund both butter and guns is seizing up: the governing coalition and the presidency have stopped speaking to each other, with opposition parties refusing even to attend meetings called by Karol Nawrocki, the president. When the prime minister must rebuke the president for his response to American remarks about NATO, the system designed to project allied unity instead advertises its dysfunction. Finland and the Baltic states show how security concerns now drive policy well beyond defence budgets. Finland’s State Audit Office found that the government’s claimed €10 billion in savings is €3.5 billion — a gap that matters when the country is trying to meet EU deficit rules and push military spending toward 3% of GDP. Estonia, spending 5% of GDP on defence while producing the world’s highest density of unicorn startups, proposed an EU-wide entry ban on nearly a million Russian veterans, a policy that would have seemed fantastical three years ago. Lithuania created a “military Schengen” with its Baltic neighbours, eliminating peacetime barriers to troop movements. Each step makes sense. Taken together, they describe societies reorganising around a threat assessment that leaves little room for the priorities — welfare, infrastructure, fiscal prudence — that defined European normality before 2022. The strain shows where consensus is thinnest. In the Czech Republic, 90,000 people took to the streets over a foreign minister accused of threatening the president’s adviser. Yet the government confirmed it would resist NATO pressure to move beyond 2% defence spending — a position that clashes with its aspirations to be taken seriously in a three-pole world. Romania, the EU’s second-largest beneficiary of a new €16.6 billion defence fund, plans to reach 5% of GDP in military spending by 2035 while running a 9.3% budget deficit, the worst in the union. Latvia’s security services now assess that Russia views the Baltics much as it viewed Ukraine before the invasion — a sentence that, once written into an official report, changes the calculus of every budget line. What emerges is not ideological militarisation but militarisation as bureaucratic habit: gold reserves swelling, drone operators drawing government salaries, border controls redesigned for armoured columns, and audit offices struggling to balance the books. These democracies are not becoming garrison states. But they are discovering that preparing for the worst, year after year, reshapes institutions in ways that no peace deal can easily reverse.Country Summaries
Ukraine
Ukraine’s security guarantees from America are ready for signing, and peace talks with Russia have taken a procedural leap forward.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the US security guarantees document is completely ready following talks in Abu Dhabi, with Ukraine now waiting for partners to set a signing date before Congressional and parliamentary ratification. The document would provide binding security commitments beyond previous assurance frameworks. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed that bilateral Ukraine-Russia meetings occurred within the trilateral framework, describing a “qualitative change in Russian delegation composition” with no more “pseudo-historical lectures” and substantive discussions on ceasefire parameters, monitoring procedures, and timeline definitions. Military representatives held separate track negotiations.
Even as it negotiates, Ukraine continues expanding its military capabilities through an unusual route: formalising volunteer expertise. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Serhii ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov as defence technology advisor and Serhii Sternenko as unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) effectiveness advisor. Both run prominent Telegram channels — Mr Beskrestnov has 156,000 followers and focuses on counter-drone systems and captured equipment analysis, while Mr Sternenko’s foundation has delivered more than 256,000 drones to Ukrainian units. The appointments represent systematic integration of wartime innovation networks into permanent military organisation. Separately, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) confirmed that its Alpha unit struck five Russian airbases in 2025, destroying 15 aircraft including Su-30SM, Su-34, MiG-31, Mi-28, and An-26 platforms, with an estimated $1bn in damage including ammunition and fuel storage destruction.
The most significant domestic shift is now complete. Kyrylo Budanov, former head of Main Intelligence Directorate, has been officially appointed head of the Presidential Office, replacing his previous role in military intelligence. Mr Zelensky emphasised that Mr Budanov would focus on security issues, defence forces development, and diplomatic negotiations. The appointment establishes security professional rather than political operative leadership of the Presidential Office, representing a structural shift in decision-making architecture toward military-intelligence background.
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- Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reports intense Russian offensive attempts near Pokrovsk — General Syrskyi described the situation as difficult on the Pokrovsk and Ocheretyne fronts, with Russian forces bringing up reserves and using infiltration tactics while Ukrainian forces focus on inflicting maximum losses on enemy reserves. (united24media.com)
- Mr Sybiha calls for sustained international pressure on Russia following attacks — Mr Sybiha urged continued global pressure on Russia after strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure including a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia. He emphasised blocking Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ and adopting stronger European Union sanctions while securing International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmation that Russian energy attacks pose nuclear threats. (pravda.com.ua)
- Russian disinformation campaign targets Mr Budanov with false narratives — Ukrainian analysts report Russia launched a special information operation against Mr Budanov using fake narratives about CIA training, personal conduct, and alleged conflicts with military leadership. The campaign includes fabricated stories and ‘insider’ messages on social media. (en.interfax.com.ua)
- General Syrskyi conducts military medical and command meetings at General Staff — General Syrskyi held meetings on medical priorities in the Armed Forces and with frontline commanders. He discussed development of medical battalions and recognised servicemen for courage and professionalism in combat. (ukrinform.net)
- Mr Zelensky appeals for more Western air defence systems — Mr Zelensky called on Western allies to provide more air defence support as Russian strikes left hundreds of buildings in Kyiv without heating during freezing temperatures. He blamed delayed European payments for keeping Ukraine’s air defences ‘simply empty.’ (euronews.com)
- Ukraine ends diplomatic passivity toward Hungary, Mr Sybiha announces — Mr Sybiha said Ukraine is ending its policy of diplomatic ‘non-noticing’ with Hungary and will respond decisively to unfriendly steps and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from Hungarian leadership, including attempts to drag Kyiv into Hungary’s domestic politics. (ukrinform.net)
- Ukraine prepares sanctions against President Lukashenko for war complicity — Mr Sybiha announced Ukraine is preparing sanctions against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to hold him accountable for supporting Russia’s war, saying Belarus bears equal responsibility with Russia for the invasion. (kyivindependent.com)
- Ukraine offers security cooperation to Moldova over Transnistria — Mr Sybiha said the threat of continued Russian military presence in Moldovan Transnistria is becoming increasingly obvious and that Kyiv is ready to consider Moldova’s appeal for further practical security cooperation. (en.interfax.com.ua)
- Mr Sybiha emphasises Poland’s support for Ukraine’s EU membership — Mr Sybiha said Poland supports Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership and is one of its biggest advocates, emphasising that Ukraine’s EU membership is in Poland’s interest and noting progress on sensitive historical issues. (europeannewsroom.com)
- Mr Budanov commemorates Battle of Kruty heroes — Mr Budanov honoured the memory of the Heroes of the Battle near Kruty on the anniversary, emphasising their importance as symbols of courage and resistance for modern Ukraine and calling for building a country worthy of their sacrifice. (news.novyny.live)
- Mr Zelensky cautious on Russian bombing pause during extreme cold — Mr Zelensky said he was waiting to see whether Russia would observe a proposed pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during bitter winter cold. He noted no formal ceasefire agreement exists but indicated Ukraine would halt energy strikes if Russia did the same. (theguardian.com)
- National Bank cuts key policy rate to 15% — The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered its key policy rate from 15.5% to 15%, with Governor Andriy Pyshnyy saying the bank will continue to respond flexibly to shifts in monetary risks. (ukrinform.net)
Notes
Notes
SBU releases compilation video of drone strikes destroying Russian aircraft worth \$1 billion
January 28-30, 2026
Sybiha calls for sustained international pressure on Russia following attacks
January 27 - February 01, 2026
Investigation reveals Tymoshenko's alleged plot to undermine Zelensky's parliamentary majority
January 30, 2026
Other
Poland
Poland’s cohabitation crisis has deepened to the point where opposition parties now refuse to meet with the president at all. When President Karol Nawrocki invited all parliamentary clubs to meetings this week, the Civic Coalition and Left declined, with politicians saying the sessions “bring nothing” and accusing Mr Nawrocki of “torpedoing government actions.” Only Law and Justice (PiS) and minor parties participated, highlighting the complete breakdown of institutional cooperation between the executive branches.
The dysfunction is spilling into Poland’s alliance management. Prime Minister Donald Tusk sharply criticised Mr Nawrocki and former President Andrzej Duda for their response to controversial Trump remarks about NATO soldiers in Afghanistan, saying their role is not to lobby for other countries but to guard Polish national dignity. The public disagreement reveals cracks in Poland’s dual-track strategy of using the president to manage MAGA relationships while the prime minister coordinates with Europe.
Even as the political system strains, Poland is pursuing assertive economic statecraft. The National Bank purchased 102 tons of gold in 2025, making it the world’s largest buyer for the second year running, according to the World Gold Council. Governor Adam Glapiński now controls over 550 tons, ranking Poland 12th globally and exceeding the European Central Bank’s 506 tons. Mr Glapiński defends the policy as building credibility and security despite economist criticism of returns. Meanwhile, Polish Oil and Gas Company (PKN Orlen) demanded immediate repayment of a $28.7 million loan from Grupa Azoty Polyolefins after banks put the company in default, part of continued unwinding of troubled state-owned enterprises from the PiS era.
The political complications extend beyond the ruling coalition. Sławomir Mentzen’s New Hope (Nowa Nadzieja) faces potential dissolution over financial irregularities, with reports of communication breakdown between Mr Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak. Party members are criticising Mr Mentzen’s leadership while Confederation (Konfederacja) risks losing millions in state funding, adding to the fragmentation on the right ahead of 2027 elections.
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- Jarosław Kaczyński hospitalised with respiratory infection — PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński was hospitalised in Warsaw with a seasonal respiratory infection, potentially pneumonia. He is expected to remain hospitalised for several days for tests and observation. President Nawrocki called him during his hospital stay. (rmf24.pl)
- Court dismisses Kaczyński defamation case due to minimal harm — A Warsaw court dismissed the defamation case brought by Civic Coalition MEP Krzysztof Brejza against PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński. While the court found Mr Kaczyński’s statements met the criteria for defamation, it dismissed the case due to minimal social harm. The case concerned Mr Kaczyński’s March 2024 statements about Mr Brejza before the Pegasus commission. (polsatnews.pl)
- Nawrocki-Sikorski meeting on ambassador nominations — President Karol Nawrocki met with Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski to discuss the ongoing dispute over ambassadorial nominations. The meeting was described as ‘good and constructive’ with both sides expressing hope for finding common ground on the diplomatic appointments. (tvn24.pl)
- Nawrocki commemorates 81st anniversary of Auschwitz liberation — President Karol Nawrocki delivered a speech at the 81st anniversary commemoration of Auschwitz liberation, calling the camp a symbol of complete dehumanisation and barbarism. He emphasised the role of Polish victims and criticised previous German failures to act. Russia’s Foreign Ministry later criticised his remarks about the Soviet role. (wydarzenia.interia.pl)
- Kaczyński rejects potential alliance with Grzegorz Braun — PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński categorically ruled out any coalition with Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation Crown of Poland, comparing such an alliance to ‘an alliance with Putin.’ He spoke during a meeting in Skarżysko-Kamienna, saying cooperation with Mr Braun would be ‘beyond all doubt’ unacceptable. (tvn24.pl)
- Mentzen’s Nowa Nadzieja to merge with Imperium Kontratakuje — Sławomir Mentzen announced that his New Hope party will merge with the newly created Imperium Kontratakuje party at a February 21 congress in Warsaw. The merger aims to resolve legal problems facing New Hope after a court decision to remove it from the party register due to financial reporting failures. (rp.pl)
- Mentzen’s business results show profit despite revenue decline — Kancelaria Mentzen, controlled by Sławomir Mentzen, achieved net profit in Q4 2025 compared to a loss in the same period previous year. The company improved its full-year 2025 results despite declining revenues, mainly through cost reduction. Mr Mentzen announced no business forecasts for 2026, comparing them to fortune-telling. (wiadomosci.wp.pl)
- Former ABW deputy chief dismissed from service for political activity — Lech Wojciechowski, former deputy head of the Internal Security Agency (ABW) during PiS era and later National Security Bureau (BBN) employee, was disciplinarily expelled from ABW service for violating the ban on political party activity. Minister Tomasz Siemoniak announced the decision, emphasising there is no place for political activists in special services. (wiadomosci.wp.pl)
- Orlen rebrands PGNiG operations under unified corporate identity — PKN Orlen announced the change of Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG) brand to Orlen and rebranded PGNiG retail operations as myOrlen. The change aims to strengthen integration of the multienergy group and introduce the Orlen Vitay platform as a central digital hub for energy services. Existing contracts and payment methods remain unchanged for customers. (biznes.interia.pl)
- Orlen delays KSeF electronic invoicing implementation for gas station customers — Orlen announced that printed invoices for business customers at gas stations will continue to be available until at least April 1, 2026, despite the mandatory e-invoicing system launching February 1. The decision responds to customer demands for a transition period. Other fuel networks follow similar approaches. (motoryzacja.interia.pl)
- Tusk promotes government successes on international stage — Prime Minister Donald Tusk highlighted Poland’s achievements in various social media posts and public appearances, including promoting the success of the government’s in vitro programme and Poland’s positive international image. He responded to frequently searched Google questions about Poland and celebrated reaching a historic trillion-dollar GDP milestone. (wiadomosci.gazeta.pl)
Notes
Notes
Tusk criticizes Nawrocki and Duda over response to Trump's NATO comments
January 30 - February 01, 2026
Orlen delays KSeF electronic invoicing implementation for gas station customers
January 28 - February 01, 2026
Other
Finland
Finland’s government faces a fiscal crisis as an official audit revealed its budget savings are less than half what was claimed — 3.5 billion euros rather than the promised 10 billion.
The State Audit Office’s findings expose major gaps in the right-wing coalition’s austerity programme, with unfulfilled employment effects, incomplete welfare savings, and tax cuts that reduced the fiscal impact. Finance Minister Riikka Purra’s ministry estimates the actual effect may reach 5 billion euros by 2027, but this still falls well short of targets. The shortfall deepens Finland’s challenge in meeting EU deficit rules while funding its NATO military buildup, which aims to field one of Europe’s largest reserve armies at 2.5% of GDP spending, rising to 3% by 2029. Yet the underlying economy shows recovery signs — GDP grew 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with employment and working hours rising. Multiple research institutes project 1.0-1.5% growth for 2026 driven by consumption and investment recovery.
The fiscal strain comes as Finland’s main opposition party faces an escalating scandal that could reshape electoral dynamics ahead of 2027. Tytti Tuppurainen, the Social Democratic Party parliamentary group chair, faces allegations of inappropriate behaviour toward staff and MPs from multiple sources. MP Pia Hiltunen publicly described inappropriate pressure over voting decisions. Party leader Antti Lindtman defends Ms Tuppurainen, but the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has ordered an external investigation. The timing is damaging: the SDP was leading polls by significant margins before the scandal broke. Multiple parties have launched similar internal investigations into workplace culture.
Diplomatically, Finland demonstrated its confidence as a NATO member by directly challenging China on Ukraine while preserving commercial ties. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, raising Ukraine concerns and calling on China to work toward lasting peace. Finnish companies signed 11 trade agreements, but Mr Orpo stressed that China’s support for Russia undermines EU-China relations. Meanwhile, President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre published a joint op-ed in the Financial Times supporting Greenland’s territorial integrity and warning against US annexation attempts — a rare public challenge to an ally on core principles.
The president also demonstrated Finland’s soft power through an unexpected cultural moment. Mr Stubb and First Lady Suzanne Innes-Stubb participated in Yle’s 60-hour Muumi book reading marathon, drawing widespread public praise for their animated performances. Public comments emphasised the uniqueness of having a head of state reading to the nation on television — a gesture of cultural engagement during Finland’s strategic transformation.
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- PM Orpo’s Beijing visit draws coalition partner criticism — Prime Minister Petteri Orpo met Chinese President Xi Jinping and secured 11 trade agreements during visit to Beijing. Finns Party MP Jani Mäkelä criticised meetings with Chinese leadership as ‘problematic’ while Mr Orpo defended raising Ukraine concerns. (yle.fi)
- President Stubb’s Muumi reading marathon becomes cultural moment — President Alexander Stubb and First Lady Suzanne Innes-Stubb participated in Yle’s 60-hour Muumi book reading marathon, drawing widespread public praise for their animated performances and cultural engagement. (is.fi)
- Parliamentary harassment investigations spread across parties — Following SDP scandal, multiple parties launch internal harassment investigations. The National Coalition Party completed study finding no systematic issues, the Finns Party and others conducting similar reviews of workplace culture. (iltalehti.fi)
- Stubb and Norwegian PM warn against Greenland annexation — President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre published op-ed in Financial Times supporting Greenland’s territorial integrity and warning against US annexation attempts amid President Donald Trump’s statements. (is.fi)
- Finance Minister Purra pushes welfare reform and fiscal consolidation — Finance Minister Riikka Purra implemented income support cuts and proposed further welfare reforms, arguing current system doesn’t incentivise work. Also addressed YEL pension reform and criticised opposition economic policies. (suomenuutiset.fi)
- Bank of Finland’s gold reserves reach historic high — Finland’s gold reserves are now worth 6.1 billion euros, the highest ever. Central bank maintains gold is stored across multiple countries including the US, the UK, Sweden and Switzerland as ultimate crisis insurance. (iltalehti.fi)
- Orpo announces parliamentary working group on healthcare reform — Prime Minister Orpo announces creation of parliamentary working group to address wellbeing services areas’ future, responding to opposition pressure. Group to begin work in spring after PM’s statement on healthcare services. (hs.fi)
- Social media restrictions for children gain political support — Prime Minister Orpo, health authorities and two-thirds of Finns support banning or restricting social media use for under-15s, following Australia’s model. Researcher describes current situation as ‘uncontrolled human experiment’. (yle.fi)
Notes
Notes
Finance Minister Purra pushes welfare reform and fiscal consolidation
January 28 - February 01, 2026
Other
Estonia
Estonia is no longer just reacting to Russian threats — it is actively shaping Europe’s response to them.
At a Brussels foreign ministers meeting this week, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna proposed an EU-wide entry ban for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, arguing that nearly 1m Russian combatants pose security risks to Europe. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas reported that “many member states” supported the Estonian proposal, which would systematically blacklist Russian veterans in post-war scenarios. The initiative marks Estonia’s evolution from stress-tested alliance solidarity to policy entrepreneurship within EU frameworks — using its deep institutional embedding to drive coordinated anti-Russian measures rather than merely adapting to external pressures.
The shift reflects a broader pattern of Baltic assertiveness. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur hosted his Latvian and Lithuanian counterparts in Tallinn to sign a joint military mobility agreement simplifying cross-border movement of forces, alongside discussions on Baltic defence cooperation and Ukraine support. Estonia continues spending 5% of GDP on defence while achieving the world’s highest density of unicorn companies — a combination that gives it both credibility and influence within European institutions.
Domestic governance proceeded routinely. The Riigikogu re-passed employment law amendments after President Alar Karis declined to promulgate them in December over constitutional procedural concerns, demonstrating normal democratic checks and balances. Meanwhile, analysis revealed that Estonia’s central bank holds only 256.6kg of gold reserves for historical rather than financial reasons, while neighbouring Finland’s reserves reached a historic high of €6.1 billion. Estonia’s investment assets total €2 billion, equivalent to about 5% of GDP.
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- Pevkur presents defence development plan to parliament — Mr Pevkur outlined Estonia’s defence development plan to 2035 to parliament’s defence committee, promising to submit it to government by April. The plan includes naval modernisation, air defence improvements, and expanding active personnel by 500-600 people over ten years. (err.ee)
- Estonia allocates €400,000 humanitarian aid to Ukraine — Mr Tsahkna announced new humanitarian aid package for Ukraine, stating that Putin uses cold and darkness as weapons against Ukrainians. Estonia also responded to Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia maternity hospital, emphasising continued support for Ukraine. (ukrinform.net)
- Estonia weighs eastern border closure after Russian crossing — Mr Tsahkna said full closure of Estonia’s eastern border remains an option after Russia’s illegal border crossing last month. The government has not yet seen a direct security threat requiring closure but considers it a possible pressure measure. (news.err.ee)
- Kaitseliit recognises best members and conducts training exercises — Estonian Defence League held annual recognition ceremony in Tallinn, naming year’s best Defence League member and youth leaders. Separately, Defence League units conducted training exercises, including in school buildings and various locations. (lounaeestlane.ee)
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Notes
Other
Lithuania
Lithuania is positioning itself as the driving force behind Ukraine’s EU membership, using its upcoming presidency to cement the enlargement agenda while strengthening Baltic defenses against an uncertain geopolitical future.
President Gitanas Nausėda made Ukraine’s EU membership by 2030 a “strategic interest for Lithuania” during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to commemorate the 1863-1864 uprising. Mr Nausėda declared that Lithuania will focus on this goal during its 2027 EU presidency, reinforcing the country’s role as Ukraine’s most vocal advocate within European institutions. The commitment came alongside King Frederik X’s state visit, where Mr Nausėda expressed solidarity with Denmark over Greenland’s territorial integrity amid American pressure, demonstrating Lithuania’s broader alignment with Western sovereignty principles.
Lithuania is simultaneously deepening regional defense integration through major procurement and institutional innovation. The country signed a contract with KNDS Deutschland for 12 Leopard 2A8 Leguan armoured vehicle bridges worth €210 million, significantly improving battlefield mobility for Lithuanian forces. More striking was the establishment of a Baltic Military Mobility Area with Estonia and Latvia, removing peacetime bureaucratic barriers for military equipment and personnel transit between the three countries. The agreement creates what defence ministers called a military “Schengen” area, enhancing NATO’s ability to move forces rapidly in response to threats.
Domestic politics, however, revealed cultural and coalition tensions that constrain the government’s room for manoeuvre. Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė sparked controversy by remaining seated during portions of a Catholic mass while presidents and other officials stood or knelt, with her office explaining she is not a practising Catholic and was affected by incense. The incident exposed religious-secular divides around expectations for political leaders in ceremonial contexts. More consequentially, Ms Ruginienė said her governing coalition with the controversial Dawn of Nemunas party will continue unless the Social Democrats make a collective decision to end it, despite ongoing questions about the junior partner’s problematic associations. On economic policy, she proposed giving banks authority to temporarily hold client transfers and reverse fraudulent transactions once fraud is confirmed.
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- Zelensky visits Lithuania for 1863-1864 uprising commemoration and bilateral talks — Mr Zelensky visited Lithuania to commemorate the 1863-1864 uprising alongside Lithuanian and Polish presidents. Meetings with Mr Nausėda covered Ukraine’s EU membership timeline, energy system support, and military cooperation. Mr Nausėda emphasised Lithuania’s continued support for Ukraine. (lrt.lt)
- Danish King Frederik X conducts state visit to Lithuania — King Frederik X and Queen Mary visited Lithuania for bilateral meetings with Mr Nausėda and Ms Ruginienė. Discussions covered Arctic security, Ukraine, and Baltic-Nordic cooperation. A state dinner was held at the Presidential Palace. (respublika.lt)
- Lithuania delays Embraer C-390 military aircraft purchase until 2030 — Lithuania postponed procurement of Brazilian-made Embraer C-390 military transport aircraft, citing priorities for air defence and new military infrastructure. The country will modernise its C-27J Spartan fleet instead and revisit aircraft procurement around 2030. (aerotime.aero)
- Baltic states establish military mobility ‘Schengen’ area — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed to create a Baltic Military Mobility Area to allow easier troop movement between the three countries. Defence ministers signed a declaration removing peacetime bureaucratic barriers for military equipment and personnel transit. (estonianworld.com)
- LRT public broadcaster reform discussions continue — Ms Ruginienė said she wanted to join protests about press freedom but security advised against it. She called for broader public discussion of proposed reforms to Lithuanian National Radio and Television governance, acknowledging lessons from last year’s controversies. (tv.lrytas.lt)
- US-Lithuania joint military exercise Unified Partners 26 concluded — The US Army’s 407th Civil Affairs Battalion and Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union completed joint training exercise Unified Partners 26. The exercise marked a historic milestone as one of the first mounted training collaborations in over a century between the two forces. (army.mil)
- Defence procurement reforms not linked to corruption, PM says — Ms Ruginienė stated that proposed changes to defence procurement procedures are not related to specific corruption cases, as none have been detected. She emphasised plans to reduce intermediaries and purchase directly from manufacturers for major acquisitions. (delfi.lt)
- Opposition demands detailed presentation of defence Plans B and C — Liberal Movement leader Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen said opposition parties are waiting for Ms Ruginienė to present detailed Lithuanian defence plans B and C for scenarios if NATO dissolves. This follows the prime minister’s previous statements about having contingency plans. (delfi.lt)
- President convenes State Defence Council meeting — Mr Nausėda called a State Defence Council meeting to discuss regional security, intelligence service strategies, the National Security Strategy project, transport aviation development, and other state defence matters. (delfi.lt)
- Coalition to continue unless Social Democrats decide otherwise, PM says — Ms Ruginienė said the governing coalition with Dawn of Nemunas will only end if the Social Democratic Party makes a collective decision to that effect, despite ongoing controversies about the junior partner’s connections. (lrt.lt)
- PM responds to Cichanouskaja’s departure to Warsaw — Ms Ruginienė responded calmly to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Cichanouskaja’s office moving from Vilnius to Warsaw, saying she sees neither added value nor loss from the departure. She criticised former prime minister Saulius Skvernelis for suggesting this would open paths to improve relations with Belarus. (respublika.lt)
- Belarus balloons continue flying into Lithuania despite past agreements — Ms Ruginienė noted that Belarusian balloons entering Lithuanian airspace continue as a mix of contraband and hybrid attacks, despite earlier US envoy claims that Alexander Lukashenko promised to stop the flights. The prime minister said balloons flew and will continue to fly. (lrt.lt)
Notes
Notes
Zelensky visits Lithuania for 1863-1864 uprising commemoration and bilateral talks
January 25-26, 2026
Other
Czech Republic
Czech democracy is mobilising against governmental overreach, with 90,000 protesters rallying across the country to support President Petr Pavel in his constitutional standoff with the coalition government.
The demonstrations, organised by Million Moments for Democracy, targeted what protesters called “vulgarity, arrogance and blackmail” in response to the affair involving Foreign Minister Petr Macinka, who stands accused of threatening the president’s adviser over a blocked ministerial appointment. More than 600,000 people have signed petitions supporting Mr Pavel. Opposition parties have now submitted 81 signatures for a no-confidence vote scheduled for next Tuesday. Though they lack the 101 votes needed to topple the government, opposition leaders argue that democracy cannot remain silent about executive overreach.
Even as the constitutional crisis deepens, the government is signalling a more transactional foreign policy approach. Parliamentary Speaker Tomio Okamura criticised the display of a 30-meter Ukrainian flag on Charles Bridge during Unity Day celebrations, calling it an “unnecessary provocation” and confirming government plans for stricter Ukrainian residency conditions. Czech churches condemned Mr Okamura’s statements as “misleading and dangerous.” Meanwhile, Mr Macinka has outlined Prague’s thinking on China policy to US Ambassador Nicholas Merrick, with the government operating on the assumption of a three-pole global order and considering pragmatic engagement with China while remaining anchored in the American camp.
The coalition has also confirmed it will resist NATO pressure to increase defence spending. Current levels will remain at approximately 2% of GDP rather than moving toward the alliance’s new 3.5% target. Mr Okamura stated that current spending is “sufficient,” with the government prioritising domestic spending on families and transport over defence increases.
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- Mass rallies support President Pavel amid constitutional crisis with government — Tens of thousands of Czechs rallied in Prague and other cities to support Mr Pavel in his dispute with the government over ministerial appointments. The protests were organized in response to Mr Pavel’s refusal to appoint Filip Turek as environment minister and subsequent tensions with Mr Macinka. (efe.com)
- President Pavel accuses Foreign Minister Macinka of extortion over blocked ministerial appointment — Mr Pavel accused Mr Macinka of potential extortion after blocking the appointment of Filip Turek as environment minister. Mr Pavel said Mr Macinka sent unacceptable text messages to his adviser threatening political consequences. (politico.eu)
Notes
Notes
President Pavel accuses Foreign Minister Macinka of extortion over blocked ministerial appointment
January 27, 2026
Other
Romania
Romania is executing the largest defence transformation in its modern history, with €16.6 billion in European Union funding now backing an unprecedented military modernisation.
The Romanian government detailed spending plans this week for its allocation under the EU’s Security Action for Europe programme, making Romania the second-largest beneficiary after Poland. The funding covers major defence procurements including Airbus helicopters, Piranha vehicles, air defence systems, and strategic A7/A8 motorway sections. This comes on top of the existing more than $20 billion procurement pipeline, potentially pushing defence spending toward 5% of GDP by 2035. The United States is reinforcing this commitment by deploying a tank unit equipped with M1A2 Abrams tanks to Romania. The Romanian defence chief confirmed the enhanced military cooperation maintains the same overall troop levels while upgrading capability and lethality.
Even as Romania strengthens its military, its anti-corruption institutions showed they retain meaningful bite. The National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA) arrested lawyer and Liberal Party (PNL) Sector 1 member Adriana Georgescu for receiving €60,000 as part of €500,000 promised to influence judicial cases. Ms Georgescu claimed connections to the directorate’s leadership and the presidency. A man posing as a Romanian Intelligence Service general was also arrested. The party quickly distanced itself from Ms Georgescu. The high-profile arrest suggests the directorate can still function against political figures despite revelations of systemic judicial capture in the December 2025 “Captured Justice” documentary.
The political establishment continues to reject pro-Russian or pro-Trump gestures. Alliance for the Union of Romanians leader George Simion faced fierce domestic and international criticism after attending a Trump anniversary event in Washington, where he participated in cutting a Greenland-shaped cake decorated with the US flag. He also presented a report on Romania’s election annulment to Republican congressmen. The backlash reinforced the cross-party consensus supporting Western alignment.
Romania’s central bank kept key rates unchanged at 6.5% in January to support economic growth while monitoring inflation trends. Officials expect modest inflation decline in the first half of 2026, maintaining coordination with the government on budget preparation as the country grapples with a 9.3% GDP deficit — the worst in the EU.
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- EU and India finalise historic free trade agreement after two decades of negotiations — European Union and India concluded negotiations for massive trade deal eliminating tariffs on 96.6% of EU exports to India. Agreement aims to double trade to 200 billion euros annually by 2030. (hotnews.ro)
- NATO chief Rutte warns Europe cannot defend itself without US support — NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told European Parliament that Europe is incapable of defending itself without American military support and criticised the idea of a European defence pillar as unrealistic. (digi24.ro)
- Central bank announces first banknote signature change in 25 years — National Bank of Romania will change the signature appearing on banknotes starting February 1, 2026, with new cashier general Mugur Tolici replacing Ion Nițu who held the position since 1999. (jurnalul.ro)
- Prime Minister Ciolacu criticised for excessive government reserve fund spending — Economy Minister Irineu Darău accused Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of spending from the government reserve fund equivalent to 15 years of previous governments combined, contributing to budget deficit concerns. (factual.ro)
- Turkish defence company Otokar to acquire Romanian military vehicle partner — Turkish armoured vehicle manufacturer Otokar signed agreement to acquire controlling stake in Romania’s Automecanica to support $1 billion contract for Cobra II vehicles for Romanian armed forces. (defensenews.com)
- Liberal Party faces internal crisis over book promotion costs — Liberal Party (PNL) leadership dispute emerges over 6 million euro cost for promoting former leader Nicolae Ciucă’s book during 2024 election campaign, with current party factions disagreeing over expenses. (fanatik.ro)
- Multiple Social Democratic Party leaders resign in Bucharest after electoral defeat — Three Social Democratic Party (PSD) leaders from Bucharest sectors 2, 4 and 6 resigned following party’s loss in capital elections where candidate Daniel Băluță was defeated by liberal Ciprian Ciucu. (newsweek.ro)
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Notes
PNL member Adriana Georgescu arrested for bribery and influence trafficking
January 28 - February 01, 2026
George Simion faces criticism for controversial US visit and Greenland cake incident
January 27-29, 2026
EU and India finalize historic free trade agreement after two decades of negotiations
January 26-27, 2026
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Latvia
Latvia’s security services warned this week that Russia now views the Baltics much as it viewed Ukraine before the war.
The Constitution Protection Bureau’s annual report assessed that “Russia’s perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to the one Russia had of Ukraine before the war,” warning of continued hybrid warfare including cyber threats to critical infrastructure and information influence operations targeting upcoming elections. The assessment reflects an escalation beyond routine Russian interference to what officials see as pre-conflict intelligence posture.
Latvia is responding by deepening Western integration. Defence Minister Sprūds met with Estonian and Lithuanian counterparts in Tallinn to sign a letter of intent establishing a Baltic Military Mobility Zone, standardising border crossing procedures and coordinating military movement for crisis situations. Meanwhile, the government is reviewing a Justice Ministry proposal to allow extradition of Latvian citizens to Britain for criminal prosecution, expanding current arrangements that cover the European Union, United States, Iceland, Norway and Australia.
Prime Minister Evika Siliņa conducted foreign visits this week, including to Croatia, and told parliamentary foreign affairs debates that Latvia faces a low level of direct military threat while maintaining strong defence commitments. The government also established an inter-institutional working group to counter foreign interference in October 2026 parliamentary elections, with NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence experts warning of industrialised Russian influence operations using artificial intelligence.
Institutional checks continued to function normally. President Rinkēvičs returned two pieces of legislation to parliament (the Saeima) for reconsideration: distance learning restrictions for primary students citing insufficient preparation time, and compensation law changes creating legal uncertainties.
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Other Stories
- Severe cold weather prompts emergency warnings across Latvia — Latvia’s meteorological center issued multiple warnings for extremely cold temperatures reaching -20 to -26 degrees Celsius. Riga municipality expanded support for homeless people and authorities provided safety advice for heating equipment use. (ciklons.tvnet.lv)
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