Regional Summary
The Hedging Powers Middle powers from Asia to the Gulf built alliances this week that work against each other. India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE each deepened ties with the West while defying or undercutting Western partners. Their diplomatic positions look less like strategic ambiguity than strategic incoherence. Narendra Modi used Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Mumbai to sign over 20 defence and technology agreements, making France a “Special Global Strategic Partner” — giving New Delhi leverage against Washington’s demands that it stop buying Russian oil. Yet India also courted American goodwill by hosting an AI summit where the Adani Group pledged $100bn in renewable-energy-powered data centres, a commitment meant to appeal to both Silicon Valley and the White House. Mr Modi cannot tell Marco Rubio that Indian energy choices are none of America’s business and ask American capital to bankroll his digital ambitions. The contradiction works until one patron forces a choice. Turkey stretched the logic further. Ankara celebrated 74 years in NATO by showing off its TB3 drones in the alliance’s biggest exercise, then jailed a Deutsche Welle journalist for insulting the president, daring Germany to do something about it. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan offered troops for a Gaza peacekeeping force in Washington as his courts prepared espionage proceedings against Istanbul’s opposition mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu — the man Western capitals regard as Turkey’s democratic hope. The Kurdish peace process, meanwhile, is hostage to the constitutional arithmetic that could extend presidential rule beyond 2028. Every outward gesture of alliance loyalty serves an inward consolidation of power, and Western partners, needing Turkish drones and Turkish geography, swallow the affront. Saudi Arabia’s hedging crossed into open confrontation with another middle power. Mohammed bin Salman ordered airstrikes against UAE-backed forces in Yemen and sent a formal complaint to Abu Dhabi listing grievances from Sudan to the southern coast — an escalation between two states that once presented a united front. Yet the crown prince simultaneously decorated a retired American general with the King Abdulaziz Medal, reinforcing the security guarantee that underpins his entire modernisation programme. The kingdom is also paring back Vision 2030’s grandiose projects in favour of manufacturing and mining, an implicit admission that spectacle without returns cannot survive a world of tighter capital. Saudi Arabia wants American protection, Chinese investment and regional dominance; the Yemen strikes suggest that juggling all three is growing harder. The UAE denied this week that Mohammed bin Zayed, its president, was unwell, a sign of how much its web of global bets depends on a single decision-maker. His government posted record oil revenues, expanded Bitcoin holdings through BlackRock, committed to an AI supercomputer in India and met American officials on Gaza — all as a senior adviser attacked Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia’s founding creed. Abu Dhabi is betting against its own closest ally even as it bets against the West. This is not balance-of-power diplomacy in any classical sense. It is something messier: middle powers accumulating options faster than they can reconcile them, betting that no partner will call the bluff because each needs something in return. That bet holds until a crisis — a forced choice on Russian oil, a Yemen escalation, a leadership vacuum — reveals that overlapping alliances are not the same as reliable ones. Hedging, pursued to excess, becomes its own vulnerability.Country Summaries
India
India struck back at American pressure this week by deepening ties with France and offering its military new options for weapons, while its foreign minister again rejected Washington’s demands to stop buying Russian oil.
Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Mumbai produced more than 20 agreements that elevated India-France ties to ‘Special Global Strategic Partnership’ status. The deals include setting up Hammer missile manufacturing and H125 helicopter assembly lines in India, giving Modi’s government new options as it faces continued American pressure over the February trade deal’s Russian oil commitments. At the Munich Security Conference, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s external affairs minister, again told Marco Rubio, America’s secretary of state, that India’s energy decisions are based on market forces and national interests, not Washington’s preferences.
Even as it pushed back against America, India worked to repair damage elsewhere. Modi sent an invitation through the Lok Sabha speaker for Tarique Rahman, Bangladesh’s new prime minister, to visit New Delhi. The move marks India’s bid to reset ties after losing Sheikh Hasina, a friendly neighbour, to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) election victory.
At home, Amit Shah, India’s home minister, said the government will eliminate left-wing extremism by March 31, sticking to a deadline that would cap security operations launched after the Sindoor incident. He credited the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) forces with cutting Maoist presence from 12 states to scattered pockets.
Modi also used an AI summit in New Delhi to cast India as a technology leader for the Global South, promoting a ‘Design and develop in India. Deliver to the world’ plan. The Adani Group announced plans to invest $100 billion in renewable energy-powered AI data centres by 2035, likely to draw another $150 billion across related sectors, though the commitment comes amid legal challenges facing the conglomerate.
Bhupen Borah, former Assam Congress chief, defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of state elections, continuing the ruling party’s campaign to weaken opposition parties. Indian Youth Congress workers disrupted the AI summit with a shirtless protest wearing T-shirts showing Modi and Donald Trump, triggering the usual political row but representing routine opposition rather than serious breakdown.
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- Modi inaugurates Delhi-Meerut RRTS and development projects worth Rs 12,930 crore — Modi inaugurated the remaining sections of the Delhi-Meerut Regional Rapid Transit System and Meerut Metro, along with development projects worth Rs 12,930 crore. The 82-km corridor enables travel between Delhi and Meerut in 55 minutes. (indiatoday.in)
- India and Brazil sign mining partnership targeting $20 billion trade by 2031 — Modi and Brazilian President Lula da Silva signed mining agreements and set an ambitious target of $20 billion bilateral trade within five years. The partnership includes cooperation in critical minerals and green energy sectors. (reuters.com)
- Indian Navy hosts International Fleet Review with global participation — India’s International Fleet Review 2026 commenced in Visakhapatnam with participation from 74 countries, featuring naval ships and delegations. Droupadi Murmu, the president, reviewed the fleet as supreme commander of the armed forces, showcasing India’s growing maritime influence in the Indo-Pacific. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- RBI announces recruitment drives and policy reforms across multiple sectors — The Reserve Bank of India released notifications for 650 Assistant positions and various Grade B officer recruitments, while implementing new foreign exchange management regulations and risk-based premium frameworks for deposit insurance. (adda247.com)
- Congress stages shirtless protest at AI Summit, sparks political row — Indian Youth Congress workers disrupted the AI Impact Summit by staging a topless protest wearing T-shirts with images of Modi and Trump. The protest against the India-US trade deal triggered strong criticism from Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leading to counter-protests and political clashes. (ndtv.com)
Notes
Notes
India and France elevate ties to Special Global Strategic Partnership with Macron visit
February 17–20, 2026
Other
Turkey
Turkish courts ordered the arrest of a German broadcaster’s journalist this week, putting Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s war on press freedom in direct conflict with European allies as his domestic crackdown expands.
Alican Uludağ of Deutsche Welle was detained over 22 social media posts that insulted Mr Erdoğan. Germany’s culture minister called the arrest unacceptable, but Turkish courts ignored the outcry. The case fits the pattern: use any excuse to jail critics, let international allies complain, carry on. Even as Mr Uludağ was being arrested, another court accepted espionage charges against Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s opposition mayor, and set his first hearing for May. The court ordered him held in jail.
The Kurdish peace talks continue along transactional lines. Parliament approved a commission report on democracy with 47 votes. DEM Party delegates kept visiting Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı island, and the party is considering a name change to include “Democratic Republic” in its new structure. The talks remain tied to constitutional arithmetic — DEM’s 56 parliamentary seats are needed to reach the 360-vote threshold for a referendum on extending presidential rule beyond 2028.
Abroad, Mr Erdoğan flew to Ethiopia for his first visit in 11 years, meeting Abiy Ahmed and signing deals. On the flight home, he called for Turkey to be included in European defence systems, saying “Our voice is much stronger now.” Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, represented Turkey at the first Gaza Peace Council meeting in Washington, announcing that Ankara is ready to contribute troops to an international force for Gaza and help train police and rebuild health and education systems.
Turkey marked 74 years in NATO by playing a major role in the alliance’s biggest 2026 exercise. Turkish TB3 drones flying from the TCG Anadolu impressed observers, with NATO describing Turkish forces as “Ready. Capable. Strong.” The display showed Turkey’s continued alliance ties even as it pursues its own regional agenda.
But cracks are showing in the economic stabilisation program. Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister, defended his orthodox policies against growing criticism from within the ruling party. Pro-government media published proposals for economic reform that challenge his approach. Mr Şimşek claimed strong foreign investor interest and ruled out big tax increases, but the internal pressure suggests his tight monetary and fiscal policies may not survive long if they remain politically costly.
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- Erdoğan signs major government appointments including Justice and Interior Ministry reshuffles — President Erdoğan signed decrees appointing new deputy ministers to Justice and Interior ministries, including Turkey’s first headscarf-wearing governor as Interior deputy minister. The appointments included 17 deputy governors and 135 district governors. (haber7.com)
- Celebrity drug investigation leads to detention of actor İsmail Hacıoğlu and others — Istanbul prosecutor’s office conducted drug investigation targeting celebrities, detaining actor İsmail Hacıoğlu and others including musicians. Hacıoğlu admitted to ordering drugs via Telegram. Several were released after questioning while some were remanded in custody. (cumhuriyet.com.tr)
- CHP continues opposition rallies with 91st meeting in Kocaeli and plans new regional rallies — CHP held its 91st ‘Standing with People’s Will’ rally in Kocaeli, completing coverage of all 39 Istanbul districts. The party announced the first regional rally will be held in Bakırköy on February 25. Party also dealt with internal issues including disciplinary actions. (halktv.com.tr)
- MHP leader Bahçeli calls TV series actor to praise anti-drug message, sparks unusual political-cultural exchange — MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli called actor Uraz Kaygılaroğlu from the ‘Yeraltı’ TV series to praise the show’s anti-drug messaging for Turkish youth. Bahçeli offered to send a bozkurt painting as a gift. The actor later responded through the series with a scene referencing the call. (sozcu.com.tr)
- Finance Minister Şimşek faces criticism from AKP circles while defending economic policies and foreign investor interest — Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek defended economic policies amid growing criticism from within AKP ranks. Pro-government media published critical economic reform proposals. Şimşek claimed unprecedented foreign investor interest and ruled out major tax increases. (halktv.com.tr)
Notes
Notes
Erdoğan makes official visit to Ethiopia, signs agreements and calls for European defense cooperation
February 16–20, 2026
Erdoğan signs major government appointments including Justice and Interior Ministry reshuffles
February 19–20, 2026
'Terror-Free Turkey' process advances as TBMM commission report approved and DEM Party continues İmralı visits
February 15–22, 2026
İmamoğlu faces multiple legal proceedings as espionage case moves forward and prison access issues emerge
February 18–21, 2026
Deutsche Welle journalist Alican Uludağ arrested for alleged insult of President Erdoğan
February 20, 2026
Celebrity drug investigation leads to detention of actor İsmail Hacıoğlu and others
February 17–21, 2026
CHP continues opposition rallies with 91st meeting in Kocaeli and plans new regional rallies
February 17–21, 2026
MHP leader Bahçeli calls TV series actor to praise anti-drug message, sparks unusual political-cultural exchange
February 15–19, 2026
Finance Minister Şimşek faces criticism from AKP circles while defending economic policies and foreign investor interest
February 18–20, 2026
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represents Turkey at Gaza Peace Council in Washington
February 18–20, 2026
Turkey marks 74th anniversary of NATO membership with major role in alliance exercises
February 15–22, 2026
Other
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia bombed UAE-backed forces in Yemen this week and sent formal complaints to Abu Dhabi, escalating their rivalry from business disputes to military confrontation.
Mohammed bin Salman ordered airstrikes against Southern Transitional Council positions after UAE-backed forces moved into eastern Yemen in December. The crown prince sent a complaint letter to Tahnoon bin Zayed, the UAE’s national security adviser, listing Saudi grievances over UAE activities in Sudan and Yemen. Saudi forces bombed a UAE weapons shipment in Mukalla port and provided air support to evict STC forces. Mr bin Salman called UAE military aid to the STC without Saudi approval a “red line.”
Yet even as it clashed with its Gulf neighbour, Saudi Arabia reinforced ties with Washington. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the defence minister, awarded the King Abdulaziz Medal to retired General Michael Kurilla on King Salman’s orders. The ceremony reflected Saudi-US military cooperation despite the kingdom’s broader strategy of hedging between rival powers.
The kingdom also continued scaling back its grandiose economic plans. The Public Investment Fund transferred its $3 billion stake in Take-Two Interactive to its gaming subsidiary, Savvy Games Group, as part of a broader shift toward established sectors. Saudi Arabia is cutting back grand projects to focus on manufacturing, mining and artificial intelligence — areas with clearer returns than the original Vision 2030 fantasies.
At home, the crown prince maintained his grip through routine governance. King Salman ordered more than 3 billion riyals in Ramadan aid on Mr bin Salman’s recommendation, providing 1,000 riyals for household heads and 500 riyals for dependents. Fahad Al-Saif replaced Khalid Al-Falih as investment minister, bringing banking expertise to attract foreign investment toward the $100 billion target by 2030.
Minor stories
Minor stories
- King Salman orders SAR 3 billion Ramadan aid disbursement
- Saudi Arabia celebrates Founding Day 2026 marking 300 years of statehood
- Aramco expands partnerships with Microsoft on AI and global energy deals
- NEOM scales back megaprojects amid funding realities
- Saudi Foreign Minister conducts diplomatic meetings at Munich Security Conference
- PIF continues major funding of LIV Golf reaching $5.3 billion investment
- King Salman Park first phase opening scheduled for late 2026
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- King Salman orders SAR 3 billion Ramadan aid disbursement — King Salman directed the release of more than 3 billion riyals in Ramadan assistance to social security beneficiaries, following a recommendation from Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince. The aid includes 1,000 riyals for household heads and 500 riyals for dependents. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- Saudi Arabia celebrates Founding Day 2026 marking 300 years of statehood — Saudi Arabia commemorated Founding Day on February 22, celebrating the establishment of the first Saudi state in 1727. King Salman praised the nation’s achievements, while the Cabinet reviewed preparations and Arab leaders sent congratulations. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- Aramco expands partnerships with Microsoft on AI and global energy deals — Saudi Aramco signed agreements with Microsoft to advance industrial AI and digital talent development. Separately, Aramco’s trading arm secured a 20-year liquefied natural gas deal with Houston-based Caturus and expressed interest in an $11 billion Indian refinery project. (technologyrecord.com)
- NEOM scales back megaprojects amid funding realities — Saudi Arabia’s NEOM project is undergoing significant scaling back, with The Line city reduced in scope and the Trojena ski resort losing Olympic hosting rights. New partnerships like the $5 billion DataVolt data centre project continue, but overall ambitions are being adjusted. (computerweekly.com)
- Saudi Foreign Minister conducts diplomatic meetings at Munich Security Conference — Prince Faisal bin Farhan held meetings with US officials including the antisemitism envoy and senior adviser for Arab affairs at the Munich Security Conference. He also met with his Kazakh counterpart to deepen strategic partnerships. (english.aawsat.com)
- PIF continues major funding of LIV Golf reaching $5.3 billion investment — Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund approved an additional $267 million for LIV Golf, bringing total investment to $5.3 billion with projections to exceed $6 billion by year-end. Monthly spending averages $100 million. (golfweek.usatoday.com)
- King Salman Park first phase opening scheduled for late 2026 — The massive 16.9-square-kilometre King Salman Park in Riyadh, being developed on the site of the former airport, is advancing toward its first phase opening in late 2026. The project includes the Royal Arts Complex and residential districts. (archdaily.com)
Notes
Notes
Saudi PIF transfers \$3 billion Take-Two gaming stake to Savvy Games subsidiary
February 17–20, 2026
Saudi Foreign Minister conducts diplomatic meetings at Munich Security Conference
February 15–18, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan had to appear in public with an American senator this week to deny rumours that he was ill.
Speculation about the UAE president appeared in 28 news sources after the Turkish president and Greek prime minister cancelled visits. Lindsey Graham’s response — the senator called the rumours “false narratives” and said the UAE president was “alive, well and as sharp as I’ve ever seen him” — revealed how sensitive Abu Dhabi has become to questions about leadership continuity.
Even as it managed this crisis, the UAE deployed the oil wealth that fuels its global strategy. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s six listed companies posted record results: $51.8bn in revenue, $16.7bn in earnings, and $9.7bn in profit. That performance bankrolled expansion across technology and finance.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala increased its Bitcoin holdings by 46%, adding $630m through BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Combined with other UAE funds, total exposure exceeded $1bn. The country also committed to an 8-exaflop AI supercomputer in India — a project by G42, the UAE technology firm, that will serve India’s national AI mission under Indian governance, addressing sovereignty concerns while expanding UAE technological influence.
Regional tensions sharpened. A senior adviser to Mr Mohammed bin Zayed criticised Wahhabism, the Saudi religious doctrine — an escalation from proxy competition in Yemen and Sudan to ideological confrontation. But the UAE kept its American partnership intact. Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister, met Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, on Board of Peace initiatives and crisis management in Gaza and Sudan.
The week also brought new security challenges. Officials said they had thwarted AI-enhanced cyber-attacks on vital infrastructure, warning of a “qualitative shift” in terrorist methods.
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- Abdullah bin Zayed conducts diplomatic tour meeting US and regional counterparts — Abdullah bin Zayed, the UAE foreign minister, held meetings with Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, and various regional foreign ministers. The meetings focused on Board of Peace initiatives, strategic cooperation, and regional developments. (state.gov)
- UAE Central Bank issues AI framework for financial sector — The Central Bank of the UAE published guidance on responsible AI adoption for financial institutions, emphasising consumer protection and ethical use. The bank also approved new stablecoin regulations and signed memorandums of understanding to enhance financial supervision. (economymiddleeast.com)
Notes
Notes
MBZ health rumors spark international concern before public appearance with US senator
February 16–20, 2026
Abdullah bin Zayed conducts diplomatic tour meeting US and regional counterparts
February 15–21, 2026
Other