Regional Summary
The Strongman’s Paradox From Santiago to Brasília to Ottawa, leaders are projecting power outward while confronting the limits of their authority, suggestsing that foreign-policy theatre has become a substitute for governing. José Antonio Kast’s five-metre border trenches are the week’s most vivid case. Chile’s president has moved at remarkable speed—2,905 arrests in three days, corporate tax cuts from 27% to 23%, the scrapping of 43 environmental decrees—yet the breadth of the offensive betrays its fragility. Thousands marched in 16 cities against the environmental rollbacks, and his approval ratings, though high at 57%, carry the highest disapproval of any new president since 2010. Mr Kast can build walls and appoint retired admirals, but his arithmetic depends on a divided opposition that may unite. Washington’s eagerness to negotiate access to Chile’s rhenium supply, where the country controls roughly half the world’s stock, gives him a foreign-policy prize that costs nothing at home. The border barrier is a prop; the mineral deal is the real leverage, handed to him by American need, not Chilean strength. Mark Carney’s 47 trips in 100 days make the same point from the opposite direction. Canada’s prime minister has turned diplomacy into a full-time job because the alternative—dependence on a hostile Washington—is untenable. That he and Pierre Poilievre, his Conservative rival, now text each other to coordinate abroad is less a sign of national unity than of shared desperation. At home, Mr Carney is gaining power not through defections and helpful by-election numbers, inching toward a majority he never won at the ballot box. His budget cuts $60 billion from science, tourism and foreign aid to fund defence—a shift that makes strategic sense but concedes that Canada’s room at home has narrowed even as its ambitions abroad have expanded. Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president, achieved the week’s tidiest diplomatic result when King Felipe VI acknowledged Spanish colonial abuses, ending a freeze that began under her predecessor in 2019. The gesture cost Spain little and gave Mexico a symbolic triumph it can brandish alongside a pending EU trade deal and World Cup preparations. Yet Pemex, the state oil company, tells the story at home more honestly: safety risks at its facilities have risen 117% across recent administrations, with nearly four-fifths of known problems past their repair deadlines. Mexico can stage a reconciliation with a European monarch and rehearse bomb-detection drills for a football tournament, but it cannot fix corroding pipelines. Brazil’s contest is the starkest example of the gap between political spectacle and governance. Lula flew to a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit in Bogotá attended by just five heads of state to deliver speeches on Latin American sovereignty, then announced the re-nationalisation of a refinery Jair Bolsonaro had privatised—gestures aimed at his base, not at economic logic. His real problem is closer to home: Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign is gaining ground even in the northeast, traditionally unfriendly terrain for the Bolsonaro family, while the Workers’ Party has focused its attack on a single opponent. That Brazil’s two political camps have reached rough parity—one led by a president wielding Petrobras investments as campaign tools, the other by the convicted son of a prisoner in intensive care—says more about the limits of both sides’ agendas than about either’s strength. The common thread is not ideology but evasion. Left or right, these leaders find it simpler to build fences, sign communiqués and rack up air miles than to repair refineries, balance budgets or hold together fractious coalitions. Foreign policy is where executives enjoy the widest discretion and the fewest legislative vetoes; it is also where results can be announced before they are delivered. When governing at home grows hard, leaders head for the airport.Country Summaries
Chile
José Antonio Kast spent his first week as president building trenches on Chile’s northern border, a blunt symbol of how fast he plans to implement his far-right agenda.
Kast travelled to the border with Peru to oversee construction of barriers up to five metres high, backed by increased military presence. He declared Chile had been ‘violated by illegal immigration, drug trafficking and organised crime’ as he launched his Border Shield Plan. The barriers mark the most concrete policy shift since he took office, implementing the anti-migration stance that helped him win the presidency.
While building barriers, Kast acted elsewhere. His government arrested 2,905 fugitives in police operations during his first three days, seizing over a ton of drugs. He appointed former Navy officers to senior posts, including ex-Vice Admiral Alberto Soto as commissioner for the troubled Northern Macrozone. The appointments show his preference for military experience in civilian security roles.
On the economy, Kast unveiled his National Reconstruction Plan with corporate tax cuts from 27% to 23% over four years, elimination of inheritance taxes, and removal of VAT on housing sales. But controversy erupted over the fiscal situation he inherited, with the government claiming only $40 million remained in the treasury. Opposition parties launched investigations under the slogan ‘Where are the bucks?’
The environmental rollbacks provoked the strongest resistance. After Kast withdrew 43 environmental decrees signed by his predecessor Gabriel Boric, thousands marched in Santiago and 15 other cities under the banner ‘Don’t Kast-igate Nature.’ The protests drew environmental groups opposing the scrapping of species protections, national park plans, and pollution controls.
Despite domestic protests, Kast found Washington eager to work with him. The United States began negotiations for access to Chile’s critical minerals, particularly rhenium, where Chile controls roughly 50% of global supply. The bilateral talks are the first concrete result of Kast’s declared preference for closer US ties.
The rapid implementation created unprecedented political polarisation. Cadem polling shows 57% approval but also 34% disapproval — both the highest initial ratings for a new president since 2010. Yet the opposition appears divided, with some centre-left parties backing his border security measures while Frente Amplio criticises them. The splits suggest Kast will find selective support for popular policies like immigration control, while environmental and civil rights groups organise resistance.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Kast launches ‘Border Shield Plan’ with trenches and barriers on Peru border — Kast travelled to the northern border to inaugurate his signature Border Shield Plan, supervising construction of trenches and barriers along the Peru frontier. The plan includes physical barriers up to 5 metres high and increased military presence to control irregular migration. (bbc.com)
- Opposition tensions emerge over Kast’s early moves — Opposition parties warned of potential social unrest over Kast’s policies, while some centre-left sectors expressed support for border security measures. The mixed response highlights divisions within the opposition coalition. (emol.com)
- Kast launches comprehensive government audit of Boric administration — Kast established a Strategic Audit and Fiscal Review Committee to conduct a comprehensive review of the previous government’s performance. The audit will focus on sensitive cases including Convenios and ProCultura scandals. (latercera.com)
- Gabriel Boric establishes post-presidency office and team — Former president Boric opened his post-presidency office in the Bellavista neighbourhood and appointed his team, including former La Moneda officials Antonia Illanes as executive director and Nicole Vergara as communications director. The office aims to continue contributing to Chile’s development. (emol.com)
- Frente Amplio holds first ideological congress with Boric appearance — The Frente Amplio coalition held its first ideological congress at Universidad de Santiago, featuring former president Boric’s first public appearance since leaving office. The event focused on criticising early Kast administration policies and defining the opposition’s future direction. (puranoticia.pnt.cl)
- Chile Vamos tensions with Kast government over appointments — The Chile Vamos coalition expressed concerns to the government about being excluded from key appointments and lack of information sharing. The coalition demanded greater participation in naming regional secretaries, ambassadors, and service heads. (latercera.com)
- Chile’s 2025 GDP growth reaches 2.5% despite mining sector decline — Chile’s economy grew 2.5% in 2025, beating forecasts, driven by investment and consumer spending despite weakness in the mining sector. The Central Bank data gives the Kast administration a stronger economic starting point than expected. (elciudadano.com)
Notes
Notes
Kast withdraws 43 environmental decrees from Boric era, sparking Water Day protests
March 17–22, 2026
Other
Canada
Mark Carney has made 47 international trips in his first 100 days as prime minister, spending 84 days abroad in his first year—triple the normal rate for Canadian leaders. The pace reflects Canada’s push to build alternatives to American partnership, but the most striking aspect is how his Conservative rival is helping.
Mr Carney and Pierre Poilievre, the opposition leader, now text regularly during their international travels to coordinate and show a united Canadian front abroad. Bipartisan coordination on foreign policy is unprecedented in recent Canadian politics, suggesting both parties see seeking new partners as essential regardless of who governs. The two also backed Canada joining France, Germany, Italy and Britain in condemning Hezbollah attacks on Israel—aligning with European rather than North American partners.
At home, Mr Carney is consolidating power through defections rather than elections. Lori Idlout, an MP for the New Democratic Party (NDP), crossed the floor to join the Liberals this week, bringing the governing caucus to roughly 170 seats. With byelections on April 13 in three ridings where the Liberals are favoured, the party could reach the 172-seat majority threshold without calling a general election. Polls show the Liberals holding 45-55% support against Conservative 30-39%, with Mr Carney’s personal approval steady at 63%.
The government is reallocating money to match its international ambitions. Mr Carney’s 2026 budget cuts $60 billion from science, tourism and foreign aid over four years while increasing defence spending—what François-Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, called spending less to “invest more” in priority areas. The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% as Tiff Macklem, the governor, cited a “dilemma” between oil price inflation from the Iran war and domestic weakness from ongoing US trade disputes.
Canada is positioning itself for a prolonged period of reduced American partnership. The combination of diplomacy, cross-party coordination, and building power at home points to a strategy that outlasts elections—a recognition that the relationship with Washington may not recover regardless of who wins the next American or Canadian election.
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Other Stories
- Poilievre appears on Joe Rogan podcast during high-profile US tour — Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre sat for a 2+ hour interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, discussing tariffs, Trump’s 51st state comments, and Canadian-American relations. The appearance was part of a broader US tour including meetings with Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Michigan officials. (cbc.ca)
- Liberal majority within reach as MPs cross floor to join Carney — The Liberal Party gained seats through floor-crossings, with NDP MP Lori Idlout and Conservative MPs joining Carney’s caucus. Liberals now hold 170 seats and could secure a majority through upcoming April 13 byelections in three ridings. (nationalobserver.com)
- Carney government appeals Federal Court Emergencies Act ruling — The Mark Carney government filed for leave to appeal the Federal Court of Appeal decision that found the invocation of the Emergencies Act was unlawful. Critics say Carney is doubling down on the previous government’s mistakes. (theccf.ca)
- Montreal protests urge Carney to avoid Middle East military involvement — Hundreds of protesters gathered in Montreal calling on PM Mark Carney to keep Canada out of Middle East conflicts and not participate in efforts to ensure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. (ctvnews.ca)
- Carney and Poilievre show rare unity on international issues — Despite being political rivals, PM Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have shown alignment on international issues, with reports that they text regularly during their respective international travels to present a united Canadian front abroad. (cbc.ca)
- Carney climate agenda faces setbacks from oil industry pressure — Key elements of PM Carney’s climate plan are at risk of missing implementation targets as Canadian oil companies push to boost production and seek new export markets, particularly in Asia. The plan includes Alberta pipeline discussions amid uncertain U.S. trade policy. (reuters.com)
- Mayor criticizes federal response to antisemitic violence — Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca criticized the Carney Liberal government’s response to antisemitic violence, saying officials are ‘too busy counting votes, rather than standing up for Canadian values’ and called for more federal action. (nationalpost.com)
- Lobbying strategies shift under Carney government approach — Lobbyists report that the Carney government requires increased focus on data, economics, and return on investment compared to previous Liberal administrations. The approach reflects Carney’s background and different policy priorities. (hilltimes.com)
Notes
Notes
Other
Mexico
Mexico repaired its broken relationship with Spain this week when King Felipe VI acknowledged “much abuse” during the Spanish conquest, leading Claudia Sheinbaum to invite the monarch to the 2026 World Cup. The exchange ends a diplomatic freeze that began under López Obrador in 2019 and shows Mexico can fix damaged relationships while keeping its principles.
The breakthrough with Spain coincided with a visit from Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s president, who focused on finishing an EU-Mexico trade agreement by May 2026. Both leaders stressed an “international order based on law” and set their approach against Mr Trump’s “hard demands” — words that show shared resistance to unilateral pressure as Mexico builds new diplomatic ties.
Mexico is also preparing for the World Cup. The defence ministry sent 1,170 troops to Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, and León for anti-cartel operations while running security exercises that rehearsed World Cup scenarios including explosive detection and diplomatic protection. The planning shows competence for the June 2026 tournament.
At home, Ms Sheinbaum announced major policies. Universal health registration starts in April, letting people receive medical care at any public hospital regardless of insurance. At the 89th Banking Convention, gas stations and toll booths agreed to accept digital payments by the end of 2026, with banks offering to cut temporary fees to reduce consumer costs.
But structural problems persist. Safety risks at Pemex facilities rose 117% from the Peña Nieto to Sheinbaum governments, with 78% of safety problems past their repair deadlines. The problems include aging installations, pipeline corrosion, and equipment failures — state energy companies struggle despite increased federal support.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Mexico continues humanitarian aid to Cuba amid regional solidarity push — Juan Ramón de la Fuente, the foreign minister, reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to continue humanitarian assistance to Cuba during the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)-Africa forum in Bogotá. Ms Sheinbaum announced another aid ship would be sent to Cuba and that civil society initiatives for Cuban solidarity would be facilitated. (jornada.com.mx)
- Political tensions rise as electoral reform faces resistance from allies — Ms Sheinbaum encountered legislative pushback on her electoral reform proposals, including resistance from coalition partners the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the Labour Party (PT). The tensions extend to other areas including responses to teachers’ strikes and internal National Regeneration Movement (Morena) divisions over candidate selections. (proceso.com.mx)
- Oil expropriation anniversary marked with energy sovereignty emphasis — Ms Sheinbaum commemorated the 88th anniversary of Mexico’s oil expropriation in Pueblo Viejo, Veracruz, highlighting Pemex’s return to serving the people and emphasising energy sovereignty as a key policy priority for the administration. (nmas.com.mx)
- Environmental cleanup operations address hydrocarbon spill affecting Gulf coast — The Environment Ministry (Semarnat), the Naval Secretariat (Semar), and Pemex coordinate cleanup operations following a hydrocarbon spill affecting beaches in Veracruz and Tabasco. Officials report 85% progress in cleanup efforts after activating contingency plans to contain the environmental damage. (jornada.com.mx)
Notes
Notes
Banking Convention focuses on digital payments acceleration and financial inclusion
March 19–21, 2026
SEMAR conducts anti-cartel operations in Sinaloa, detains Mayo Zambada family member
March 17–20, 2026
Other
Brazil
Jair Bolsonaro was rushed to hospital with bacterial pneumonia this week, turning the former president’s health into a weapon in Brazil’s 2026 election battle.
Mr Bolsonaro remains in intensive care with no discharge date, while his family push for house arrest and Supreme Court justices privately debate whether to transfer him from prison. The health crisis triggered a battle for control of his movement just as his son Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign gains momentum across the country, including in the northeast where the family had little support.
Lula’s Workers’ Party has noticed. It published a resolution this week shifting strategy to attack Flávio Bolsonaro directly as the main opposition threat, linking him to the Master Bank corruption scandal and abandoning broader criticism of the Bolsonaro movement to focus on the heir. The shift reveals PT concern that the polls are tightening — Flávio is growing in both polls and social media engagement while postponing his government plan until June to avoid taking unpopular positions.
Even as the PT plots its offensive, Lula is using state resources to position himself. He attended a CELAC summit in Bogotá — only five heads of state showed up — to deliver speeches defending Latin American sovereignty against foreign military intervention. Government sources view the regional bloc as protection against American pressure. Meanwhile, he announced that Petrobras would resume investments in Minas Gerais, including a sustainable aviation fuel plant, and declared he would re-nationalize the Refinaria Landulpho Alves that Mr Bolsonaro had privatized.
Meanwhile, coalition politics in both camps continue to churn. Arthur Lira, the former Chamber president, launched his Senate campaign in Alagoas this week, showing the tensions with rival Renan Calheiros that complicate Lula’s alliance-building in strategic states. Rising fuel prices driven by the Iran conflict prompted diesel tax cuts, but governors resist state tax reductions, showing the limits of federal coordination even within Lula’s coalition.
The 2026 contest is shaping up to be fiercely competitive. Brazil’s two political camps reached rough parity — a remarkable fact given that one side’s standard-bearer is the convicted son of a prisoner.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s poll numbers rise as campaign gains ground — Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign grew in polls and social media engagement, with events in northeastern states and postponement of his government plan until June to avoid unpopular positions. (oglobo.globo.com)
- Master Bank scandal developments and political implications — The Master Bank case continued to generate political controversy with attempts to link it to the current government, while banker Daniel Vorcaro prepared a plea bargain deal. Media coverage included disputed presentations connecting various political figures to the scandal. (gazetadopovo.com.br)
- Lulinha investigated in INSS fraud case, opens company in Spain — Lula’s son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva became the target of a federal police investigation over suspected involvement in an INSS fraud scheme, including alleged monthly payments from a lobbyist. He opened a shell company in Madrid amid the investigation. (g1.globo.com)
- São Paulo deputy performs blackface in assembly targeting trans lawmaker — State deputy Fabiana Bolsonaro performed blackface at the São Paulo Assembly while attacking federal deputy Erika Hilton, Brazil’s first trans woman to chair the Women’s Rights Commission. The incident sparked racism and transphobia accusations and calls for her removal. (em.com.br)
Notes
Notes
Lula attends sparsely attended CELAC summit in Colombia, criticizes foreign interference
March 20–22, 2026
Other