Regional Summary
The Centre Cannot Hold This week’s events across Europe reveal something worse than populists rising: the continent’s governing parties are losing authority not because their opponents are strong, but because they have become incoherent. From Berlin to Stockholm, centrist leaders stumble over self-inflicted crises, diplomatic blunders and compromises that undermine their own credibility. The real danger is not that the far right is rising — it is that the mainstream has forgotten how to govern. Germany offers the starkest case. The government has collapsed to a 15% approval rating, yet the AfD overtaking Friedrich Merz’s CDU in polls owes less to any populist masterstroke than to centrist fumbles. Mr Merz claimed that Syria’s president had proposed returning 80% of refugees, only for Ahmed al-Scharaa to contradict him in London. A government spokesman dismissed this as a “sham conflict,” a phrase that captures the administration’s relationship with facts. The CDU is mired in a deepfake scandal in Lower Saxony and a Wehrmacht-nostalgia incident in Brandenburg — problems that suggest not a party under siege from the right, but one unable to police its own ranks. Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, has managed things more deftly, but her week exposed the limits of improvisation without strategy. Blocking American bombers from Sigonella while touring Gulf capitals was tactically clever — it signalled independence to Arab partners without formally breaking with NATO. Yet calling it “technical compliance” fools nobody. The contradiction between claiming alliance loyalty and denying operational access will demand a reckoning. With Fratelli d’Italia slipping in polls and Marina Berlusconi circling Antonio Tajani’s leadership of coalition partner Forza Italia, Ms Meloni’s balancing act grows more precarious. The central bank’s warning of possible recession and 2.6% inflation from the Iran crisis leaves her little room for acrobatics. France shows how mainstream weakness feeds extremism more efficiently than extremist strength does. Polling showing Édouard Philippe narrowly beating Jordan Bardella in a possible second round sounds reassuring until you note that Mr Bardella commands a 13-point first-round lead and the left is busy destroying itself. Fabien Roussel, the Communist leader, declared “a rupture” with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed, ensuring that left-wing fragmentation will deliver Mr Bardella an easier path. Emmanuel Macron spent four days in Asia promoting “strategic autonomy” while his domestic political order crumbles. The president’s detachment from France’s gravest electoral challenge since 1958 is itself a symptom of the governing class’s inability to focus. In Scandinavia, the pattern repeats with Nordic precision. Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, has promised the Sweden Democrats cabinet seats after next year’s election, completing a decade-long journey from quarantine to coalition partner — a shift driven less by SD’s brilliance than by the Moderates’ need for a majority. In Norway, Jens Stoltenberg, the former prime minister, admits in his memoir that he secretly proposed discussing NATO troop withdrawals from Eastern Europe with Russia in 2021 — without consulting the Baltic states. This reveals that even the alliance’s most trusted stewards were improvising. Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s current prime minister, lost a parliamentary vote on fuel taxes to a cross-party revolt, yet announced he would seek re-election in 2029. What emerges is not polarisation but weakness. Governing parties are not losing arguments to populists; they are losing the capacity to make arguments at all. Diplomatic blunders go unexplained, coalition partners drift into rivalry, fiscal discipline yields to parliamentary ambush, and leaders treat foreign travel as a substitute for domestic authority. When the centre empties itself of substance, it should not be surprised to find others filling the space.Country Summaries
Germany
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the president, called the American-Israeli war against Iran a violation of international law, prompting Israel’s ambassador to accuse him of breaking the country’s constitutional commitment to Israel’s security.
The diplomatic crisis came as Germany’s government collapsed. The coalition’s approval rating hit a record low of 15%, while the far-right AfD overtook the governing Union in national polls, 26% to 25%, for the first time. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, saw his approval drop 8 points to 21%.
CDU scandals made things worse. In Niedersachsen, the party fired a staff member for making a sexualised deepfake video of a female colleague and suspended another for covering it up. In Brandenburg, Frank Bommert, a CDU politician, drew criticism for posting Wehrmacht vehicle footage on Instagram.
The diplomatic chaos spread beyond Israel. Mr Merz said Syria’s president had proposed that 80% of refugees return home within three years, but Ahmed al-Scharaa, Syria’s president, contradicted this in London, saying the proposal came from Mr Merz. A government spokesman dismissed the row as “superficial interest in a sham conflict.”
Lars Klingbeil, the finance minister, announced economic reforms including ending joint tax filing for new marriages and setting up a federal housing company. But the Bundesbank warned that state debt had risen to 2.84 trillion euros, above EU limits.
A new military service law will require men aged 17-45 to get approval for trips abroad longer than three months, prompting calls for the resignation of Boris Pistorius, the defence minister.
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- Merz faces backlash over 80% Syrian return target confusion with al-Scharaa — Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, sparked controversy by stating 80% of Syrians should return home within three years, attributing the figure to Ahmed al-Scharaa, Syria’s president, who then contradicted this claim. The communication chaos has drawn criticism across the political spectrum. (spiegel.de)
- Syrian President al-Scharaa completes first official visit to Germany — Ahmed al-Scharaa, Syria’s transition president, met with President Steinmeier, Chancellor Merz, and Foreign Minister Wadephul during his Berlin visit. Germany pledged reconstruction assistance and KfW announced 119 million euros in grants, while business representatives discussed economic opportunities. (spiegel.de)
- Pistorius faces criticism over Australia trip timing and defence procurement delays — Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, drew criticism for taking his wife on official travel to Australia during Easter while key military decisions he had promised by Easter went undelivered. His trip focused on Indo-Pacific partnerships and defence deals, but key defence documents were delayed. (spiegel.de)
- AfD surges in polls amid internal splits over US troop withdrawal — The AfD has risen to first place in several national polls with 26% support, overtaking the Union. The party split internally as Tino Chrupalla, the party leader, demanded US troop withdrawal while Beatrix von Storch, deputy faction leader, opposed the timing, citing security concerns. (t-online.de)
- Brandenburg CDU politician faces backlash over Wehrmacht vehicle video — Frank Bommert, a CDU deputy faction leader, drew criticism from his own party after sharing an Instagram video showing Wehrmacht military vehicles and uniformed participants at a historical vehicle meeting. The CDU issued him a reprimand and removed him from his committee chairmanship. (spiegel.de)
- BND celebrates 70th anniversary while seeking expanded operational powers — The Federal Intelligence Service marked its 70th anniversary with public events and announced plans for expanded capabilities. Bruno Jäger, the service’s president, said it needs to take greater risks and hinted at future operational authorities beyond intelligence gathering, pending legislative reform. (berliner-zeitung.de)
Notes
Notes
Merz faces backlash over 80% Syrian return target confusion with al-Scharaa
March 30 – April 01, 2026
Coalition approval ratings collapse as AfD overtakes Union in latest polls
March 29 – April 05, 2026
Steinmeier under fire for calling Iran war 'violation of international law'
March 30 – April 02, 2026
Klingbeil unveils major domestic reform package targeting taxes and housing
March 30 – April 02, 2026
Pistorius faces criticism over Australia trip timing and defense procurement delays
March 29–30, 2026
CDU Niedersachsen deepfake scandal leads to dismissals and internal crisis
March 29 – April 02, 2026
Other
Italy
Italy blocked American bombers from using a Sicilian base for Iran operations this week, even as Giorgia Meloni toured the Gulf states as the first European leader to visit since the crisis began.
Guido Crosetto, the defence minister, denied the US military access to the Sigonella airbase when American aircraft were already in flight, because of improper authorisation under existing treaties. The government called this technical compliance rather than policy opposition, but the timing suggested something more deliberate — it came as Ms Meloni held talks in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
Ms Meloni’s 24-hour tour took her to meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Emir Sheikh Tamim and President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. Italy depends on Qatar for 10% of its gas and the Gulf region for 15% of its oil, and the government said the meetings were essential for energy security amid fears over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The two moves — blocking automatic US access while deepening Gulf partnerships — show Italy expanding its options within alliance constraints. It is not leaving NATO or breaking with Washington, but it no longer assumes that partnership means automatic cooperation.
At home, the government faces the aftermath of last month’s constitutional referendum defeat. Ms Meloni replaced the tourism minister this week, swearing in Gianmarco Mazzi from her Fratelli d’Italia party after Daniela Santanchè resigned following the vote. The appointment proceeded without incident, showing the government still functions under pressure. Mr Crosetto also asked the UN to review rules of engagement for Italian peacekeepers in Lebanon after rockets hit their base.
But that pressure is building. Polls show Fratelli d’Italia has dropped to 27.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the opposition Democratic Party has gained to 22%. More worrying for Ms Meloni may be tensions in her coalition partner Forza Italia, where Antonio Tajani faces a leadership challenge from Marina Berlusconi over the party’s direction.
The government extended fuel tax cuts through May at a cost of €500 million, paying for it with EU emissions trading revenue. The central bank warned that Italy could face recession if the Iran crisis worsens, cutting growth forecasts to just 0.5% and warning of potential 2.6% inflation from higher energy prices.
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- Tajani visits Ukraine for Bucha massacre anniversary — Antonio Tajani, the foreign minister, participates in EU ministers’ meeting in Kiev to commemorate fourth anniversary of Bucha massacre. Meets with Mr Zelensky to reaffirm Italian support for Ukraine and discuss Middle East crisis. (tg24.sky.it)
- Mattarella sends Easter message to Pope Leone XIV calling for dialogue — Sergio Mattarella, the president, sends Easter greetings to Pope Leone XIV, calling for recovery of dialogue and moderation in complex international times. Message emphasises Pope’s role as universal reference point amid global divisions. (corriere.it)
- Government stability debate post-referendum defeat — Analysis and debate over government stability after losing constitutional referendum on justice reform. Discussions of potential early elections, cabinet reshuffle, or continuing until end of legislature. Opposition sees opportunity while government projects stability. (iltempo.it)
- Grillo sues M5S leadership over party name and symbol rights — Beppe Grillo starts legal action against the Five Star Movement under Giuseppe Conte’s leadership, claiming ownership of party name and symbol. First hearing scheduled for July in ongoing power struggle between founder and current leadership. (ilfattoquotidiano.it)
- Conte-Piantedosi relationship controversy — Controversy emerges over Interior Minister Piantedosi’s relationship with journalist Claudia Conte and her work assignments. Opposition demands transparency while government allies defend minister’s performance record. (corriere.it)
- Delmastro investigation into mafia money connections — Parliamentary Anti-mafia Commission to hear former undersecretary Andrea Delmastro over business connections potentially linked to Senese clan money laundering. Investigation focuses on restaurant business investments. (ansa.it)
- Salvini’s Easter holiday in Sardinia — Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister, spends Easter vacation in northern Sardinia with partner Francesca Verdini, visiting Alghero, Asinara, and Castelsardo. Participates in Good Friday procession and local activities. (unionesarda.it)
- Bank transfers suspended for Easter period — Regular bank transfers suspended from April 2-6 due to TARGET2 system closure for Easter holidays, as happens annually. Instant transfers remain operational using separate TIPS infrastructure. (ilpost.it)
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Notes
Other
France
France’s 2027 presidential race shifted this week when polling showed Édouard Philippe beating Jordan Bardella 52-48% in a potential second round, reversing the far-right candidate’s lead from November.
The Odoxa poll masks a worse reality for France’s centrist establishment. Mr Bardella holds 34-38% first-round support with 13-point leads over Mr Philippe. Marine Le Pen’s conviction has cleared the way for a younger candidate without weakening the far right’s structural advantage.
The numbers look worse for the National Rally’s opponents because the left is splintering. Fabien Roussel, the Communist Party leader, rejected Manuel Bompard’s proposal for a common left candidacy behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon this week, calling Mr Mélenchon “the worst second-round candidate” and declaring “a rupture” with France Unbowed (LFI). Mr Roussel criticised LFI for running candidates against communist mayors despite their legislative alliance. Left fragmentation will hand Mr Bardella an easier path to the second round.
The split played out in Saint-Denis, where thousands rallied against racist attacks on Bally Bagayoko, the town’s LFI mayor. Mr Mélenchon called it “a moment in French history” and attacked elite media racism, while the government stayed away and Emmanuel Macron, the president, remained silent. The rally showed how racial politics now drives France’s polarisation.
While the far right gains ground nationally, it is implementing its agenda locally. Several newly elected RN mayors removed EU flags from their town halls this week, including in Carcassonne and Cagnes-sur-Mer. The move sparked controversy and exposed internal party divisions, but also showed how the far right uses symbolic politics to signal its anti-European stance.
Meanwhile, Mr Macron spent four days touring Japan and South Korea, promoting European “strategic autonomy” and a “third way” between Chinese and American influence. The Asia trip brought escalating tensions with Donald Trump and punctuality problems that embarrassed French diplomacy. The president’s foreign policy focus was disconnected from the regime crisis taking shape at home, where polling suggests France faces its most severe electoral challenge since 1958.
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- Macron concludes Asia tour promoting ‘third way’ strategy amid tensions with Trump — Emmanuel Macron completed a four-day visit to Japan and South Korea (March 31-April 3), promoting European strategic autonomy and a ‘third way’ between Chinese and American influence. The trip was marked by diplomatic tensions with Trump, punctuality issues in Japan, and cultural exchanges including Dragon Ball references. (lemonde.fr)
- Sébastien Lecornu proposes using fuel tax surplus to finance economic electrification plan — Sébastien Lecornu, the prime minister, announced plans to use surplus fiscal revenues from rising fuel prices to finance an electrification plan for the French economy. The proposal came amid criticism over rising fuel costs and government refusal to cut fuel taxes. (lesechos.fr)
- En Marche movement celebrates 10th anniversary as Macron’s political legacy debated — April 6, 2026 marked the 10th anniversary of Emmanuel Macron’s launch of the En Marche movement in Amiens in 2016. Multiple outlets analysed the movement’s evolution, successes, and current state under Gabriel Attal’s leadership. (actu.fr)
- RN mayors remove EU flags from town halls after municipal victories — Several newly elected National Rally mayors removed the European Union flag from their town halls, including in Carcassonne, Cagnes-sur-Mer, Harnes, and Canohès. The gesture sparked controversy and revealed divisions within the far-right party over European policy. (franceinfo.fr)
- Macron’s popularity returns to spring 2025 levels despite fuel price concerns — Polling shows Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating has rebounded to 19%, matching his spring 2025 levels, despite ongoing concerns about rising fuel prices. The recovery is particularly strong among 18-25 year olds. (huffingtonpost.fr)
- Lecornu’s approval ratings remain higher than Macron’s despite governing challenges — Polling shows Sébastien Lecornu’s approval at 35-36%, maintaining higher ratings than Emmanuel Macron despite facing parliamentary challenges and lacking a clear majority for his legislative agenda.
Notes
Notes
Macron concludes Asia tour promoting 'third way' strategy amid tensions with Trump
March 30 – April 04, 2026
Sébastien Lecornu proposes using fuel tax surplus to finance economic electrification plan
March 30 – April 03, 2026
2027 presidential race takes shape with Philippe vs Bardella polling scenarios
March 30 – April 05, 2026
Saint-Denis mayor Bally Bagayoko faces racist attacks, organizes anti-racism rally
March 31 – April 05, 2026
Left-wing parties clash over 2027 primary strategy and Mélenchon candidacy
March 31 – April 05, 2026
Macron's popularity returns to spring 2025 levels despite fuel price concerns
March 31 – April 05, 2026
Lecornu visits Bordeaux to announce new security measures and municipal cooperation
March 31 – April 03, 2026
Lecornu's approval ratings remain higher than Macron's despite governing challenges
March 31 – April 02, 2026
United Kingdom
Donald Trump called British aircraft carriers old and broken-down and dismissed the UK as an unreliable ally during an Easter lunch speech recorded and released by the White House. No American president has ever mocked British military equipment this way.
Mr Trump mocked Keir Starmer’s reluctance to send carriers to the Iran conflict, though Whitehall sources say he never requested the vessels. The speech was later deleted from official channels. Yet King Charles’s state visit to Washington will proceed as planned from 27-30 April, with a congressional address scheduled for 28 April to mark America’s 250th anniversary.
At home, Mr Starmer announced the government will lift the two-child benefit cap, the most significant welfare policy change since Labour took office. The move should lift half a million children out of poverty and comes as the government faces pressure on multiple fronts. Labour MP Karl Turner was suspended for opposing jury trial reforms, while Mr Starmer condemned the Wireless Festival for booking Kanye West despite his antisemitic history.
The Iran war is hitting household finances. The Bank of England warned the conflict represents a supply shock that could force 1.3 million households into higher mortgage payments by late 2028. Banks pulled 1,500 mortgage products and raised rates on the remaining 7,000, with average two-year fixed rates rising to 5.84% from 4.83% in early March. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, met supermarket executives over rising food and fuel prices but faced criticism for profiteering from fuel tax windfalls.
John Healey, the defence secretary, announced air defence deployments to Gulf allies, including Sky Sabre missiles to Saudi Arabia, extended Typhoon operations in Qatar, and air defence teams to Bahrain and Kuwait. Total UK personnel in Gulf and Cyprus defence now reach about 1,000. The defensive deployments continue Britain’s pattern of supporting regional allies against Iranian threats while maintaining the limited approach that has frustrated Washington.
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- Iran war strains UK-US relations as Starmer pursues closer EU ties as Trump criticism grows — Mr Starmer faces pressure from Mr Trump over UK’s limited support for the Iran war, leading the prime minister to announce closer economic and defence ties with the EU. Mr Trump has repeatedly mocked Mr Starmer’s leadership and threatened NATO withdrawal over European allies’ reluctance to support the conflict. (bbc.com)
- Kemi Badenoch leads Conservative campaign focusing on potholes and energy policy — Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, launched her party’s local election campaign with a £112 million ‘pothole patrol’ plan and pledged to scrap carbon taxes to reduce energy bills. Despite challenging polls, Ms Badenoch has emerged as the most popular party leader and ruled out coalitions with Reform UK. (dailymail.co.uk)
- Nigel Farage commits Reform UK to pension triple lock while facing internal challenges — Nigel Farage, Reform UK’s leader, announced his party would maintain the state pension triple lock if elected, funding it through what he called the ‘biggest benefits bill cut in history.’ This follows various Reform UK challenges including the dismissal of housing spokesman Simon Dudley over Grenfell comments. (dailymail.co.uk)
- David Lammy faces opposition over jury trial reforms and makes key appointments — David Lammy, the justice secretary, faced criticism for proposals to limit jury trials to the most serious cases, leading to the suspension of Labour MP Karl Turner who opposed the reforms. Mr Lammy also appointed anti-imprisonment campaigners to the Sentencing Council and met with Syrian President al-Sharaa. (order-order.com)
- Royal family attends Easter services amid King Charles’s health and family dynamics — King Charles and Queen Camilla led the royal family at Easter Sunday service at Windsor Castle, joined by Prince William, Princess Kate and their children. The service marked their return after two-year absence, while notable absences included Princess Beatrice and Eugenie following Andrew’s status changes. (bbc.com)
- Syria’s President al-Sharaa visits London for talks with Starmer and King Charles — Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president, made his first official visit to London since the fall of Assad, meeting with Mr Starmer and King Charles. Discussions focused on migration, border security, counter-terrorism cooperation, and Syria taking back more refused asylum seekers from the UK. (reuters.com)
- Grooming gangs investigation reveals allegations against Starmer’s CPS record — An investigation by the Daily Express alleged that Keir Starmer’s Crown Prosecution Service committed a ‘betrayal’ of grooming gang victims during his time as director of public prosecutions. A Rochdale survivor branded Mr Starmer’s account of her case ‘vile’ and accused him of lying for political gain. (express.co.uk)
- MI6 assessment shows Ukraine at strongest frontline position in 10 months — Mr Zelensky revealed that British intelligence from MI6 indicates Ukraine’s frontline is at its most robust position in nearly a year, with Ukrainian forces having liberated 20 square kilometers of territory, dealing a setback to Russia’s military campaign. (the-express.com)
- GCHQ conducts outreach sessions with students on language analysis careers — GCHQ held online outreach sessions with French and German students to showcase how language analysts contribute to the agency’s counter-terrorism and cyber security work, though some student questions remained unanswered for security reasons. (deltatrust.org.uk)
Notes
Notes
Iran war strains UK-US relations as Starmer pursues closer EU ties amid Trump criticism
April 1–3, 2026
King Charles's US state visit proceeds despite Iran war tensions and Epstein controversy
March 31 – April 04, 2026
Starmer condemns Kanye West Wireless Festival booking as sponsors withdraw over antisemitism
April 3–5, 2026
Bank of England warns Iran war could force 1.3 million more households into higher mortgage costs
April 01, 2026
Nigel Farage commits Reform UK to pension triple lock while facing internal challenges
April 2–3, 2026
Rachel Reeves addresses energy crisis with supermarket meetings and support planning
April 1–2, 2026
David Lammy faces opposition over jury trial reforms and makes key appointments
March 30 – April 01, 2026
GCHQ conducts outreach sessions with students on language analysis careers
March 31 – April 03, 2026
Other
Spain
Spain’s far-right is collapsing while its governing coalition shows new cracks. Talks between the People’s Party (PP) and Vox for regional governments in Extremadura, Aragón and Castilla y León missed their April 1 deadline as Vox implodes. The party’s leaders accused the PP of “contraband practices” while facing criticism from expelled members and severe internal problems.
The government coalition has its own troubles. Yolanda Díaz, the second deputy prime minister, missed a Cabinet meeting while on holiday in Mexico, prompting widespread criticism. Ms Díaz had already announced in February that she would not seek reelection, raising questions about Sumar’s future direction and coalition leadership.
While coalition and opposition both splinter, Pedro Sánchez, the prime minister, restated Spain’s stance abroad. He launched a “No to War” campaign over the Iran conflict while announcing a visit to China from April 13-15, one month before Donald Trump’s planned trip. The China visit aims to draw investment and win market access for Spanish products.
Spain’s institutions went about their normal work. The National Intelligence Centre (CNI) expelled an employee of Moroccan origin, fearing he could be recruited by Moroccan intelligence, with the National Court upholding the dismissal. The Bank of Spain reported that the banking sector returned to profitability with 234 million euros in profits for 2025 after previous losses, while warning that employment growth would weaken over the next two years. King Felipe VI made an unannounced Easter visit to Mallorca for a family reunion.
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- Former King Juan Carlos I returns to Spain for Seville bullfight, receives warm public reception — Juan Carlos I flew from Abu Dhabi to Seville to attend the Easter Sunday bullfight at La Maestranza, his first visit to Spain since November. He was accompanied by his daughter Elena and grandchildren and received enthusiastic applause from the crowd. The visit coincided with the declassification of 23-F documents. (elmundo.es)
- Andalusian election campaign intensifies with Socialists seeking to challenge Moreno’s PP dominance — The May 17 Andalusian elections see the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), led by María Jesús Montero, trying to challenge Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party, which polls suggest may lose its absolute majority. The PSOE seeks to rally its base while the People’s Party aims to consolidate its position. Vox appears to be gaining ground while the left remains fragmented. (elconfidencial.com)
- Spanish Armed Forces modernisation and operations continue amid regional and global tensions — Spain’s military is modernising, recruiting more officers, especially in the Air and Space Force, while conducting NATO missions in Slovakia and naval exercises. Defence officials announced plans for AI, quantum sensors, and directed energy weapons, while also raising military salaries. (eldebate.com)
Notes
Notes
Felipe VI makes surprise Easter trip to Mallorca for family reunion and private lunch
April 1–6, 2026
Former King Juan Carlos I returns to Spain for Seville bullfight, receives warm public reception
April 5–6, 2026
PP-Vox regional government negotiations stall amid internal Vox crisis and leadership tensions
March 30 – April 06, 2026
Yolanda Díaz faces political crisis after Mexico trip and announces she won't seek reelection
March 30 – April 06, 2026
Sánchez promotes 'No to War' campaign amid Iran crisis and announces China visit
March 30 – April 05, 2026
CNI dismisses employee of Moroccan origin over security concerns, court upholds decision
March 30 – April 05, 2026
Banco de España reports economic developments and banking sector performance
March 30 – April 06, 2026
Andalusian election campaign intensifies with PSOE seeking to challenge Moreno's PP dominance
March 30 – April 05, 2026
Spanish Armed Forces modernization and operations continue amid regional and global tensions
March 30 – April 05, 2026
Other
Norway
Jens Stoltenberg revealed this week that he proposed discussing NATO troop withdrawals from Eastern Europe to pre-1997 positions with Russia in 2021. The admission jars with Norway’s image as a loyal ally.
Mr Stoltenberg, the former NATO secretary general and current Norwegian finance minister, wrote in his memoirs that he suggested these talks without consulting Baltic states. Estonia and other allies have criticised the secret negotiations. Norway’s leadership once considered concessions to Russia that would have changed alliance force posture — a sharp shift from its current push for deterrence.
Even as Norway grapples with this past, it continues to pursue independent diplomacy. Espen Barth Eide, the foreign minister, coordinated virtual meetings with more than 35 countries on the economic fallout from Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait. But he also criticised NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for unauthorised statements supporting American Iran war policy, showing Norway will break with NATO leadership when necessary.
At home, Jonas Gahr Støre’s government suffered a fiscal defeat when parliament voted to scrap fuel taxes despite strong opposition from Mr Stoltenberg. The Centre Party, Conservatives, Progress Party and Christian Democrats backed the cuts, which cost 6.7 billion kroner. Sylvi Listhaug, the Progress Party leader, celebrated the victory and demanded further tax cuts following Sweden’s example. Mr Stoltenberg warned the cuts would increase oil fund spending and fuel inflation.
The central bank faces criticism from economists and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO) for putting its 2% inflation target above employment concerns. Critics want the bank to moderate rate hikes and consider broader economic impacts beyond price stability.
Despite these parliamentary defeats, Mr Støre announced he will seek re-election in 2029. The prime minister, now Labour’s third longest-serving leader, would become Norway’s oldest in over a century if successful. He cited the Ukraine war and security responsibilities as motivation to continue, suggesting confidence in his electoral prospects despite current coalition troubles.
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- Equinor navigates volatile energy markets with major projects and analyst divisions — Norwegian energy giant Equinor benefits from geopolitical tensions driving high oil/gas prices while advancing major projects including $9 billion Brazilian gas investment and wind acquisitions. Analysts remain split on valuation despite strong performance. (ad-hoc-news.de)
- Trump threatens NATO withdrawal over Iran war as alliance faces existential crisis — President Trump strongly considers withdrawing US from NATO after European allies refused to help in Iran war. Pentagon declines to reaffirm Article 5 commitments while NATO Secretary General Rutte prepares emergency meeting with Trump. (newsweek.com)
- Storm Dave brings extreme winds and widespread power outages to southern Norway — Extreme weather system ‘Dave’ hit Norway with dangerous winds, causing thousands to lose power on the southern coast. Meteorological Institute issued red warnings for severe wind gusts across large parts of southern Norway. (nettavisen.no)
- Støre warns of long-term economic consequences from Iran war — Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told Aftenposten that Norwegians must prepare for extended economic impacts from the Iran war, stating the consequences will persist long after any military resolution and that the government cannot pay its way out of the challenges. (aftenposten.no)
- King Harald’s sister Princess Astrid hospitalized with pneumonia — Princess Astrid, 94-year-old sister of King Harald V, was hospitalized with pneumonia and missed the Belgian royal family’s state visit to Norway. She is recovering at Oslo National Hospital. (hellomagazine.com)
- Prince Harry advocates for online privacy regulations and pursues final tabloid lawsuit — Prince Harry delivered keynote speech at privacy summit warning about threats to online privacy while his final lawsuit against British tabloids awaits High Court decision. He emphasized personal costs of taking on powerful media institutions. (townandcountrymag.com)
- King Charles faces criticism for skipping Easter message while honoring other faiths — King Charles declined to issue traditional Easter message, breaking with 2025 precedent, while having previously honored Ramadan. Critics question his role as Supreme Governor of Church of England and Defender of the Faith. (premierchristian.news)
- Støre and Zelensky discuss bilateral cooperation and defense industry partnerships — Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss security cooperation, defense industry collaboration, and Norway’s continued support for Ukraine’s energy sector reconstruction. (president.gov.ua)
- Sylvi Listhaug celebrates fuel price cuts and criticizes government economic policies — FrP leader Sylvi Listhaug toured western Norway celebrating successful fuel tax cuts while demanding retailers pass savings to consumers. She also proposed cutting food VAT following Sweden’s example and criticized government for ignoring economic pressures on families. (vg.no)
Notes
Notes
Parliament overrides government on fuel tax cuts despite Stoltenberg's opposition
March 31 – April 01, 2026
Jonas Gahr Støre announces 2029 re-election candidacy, would become Norway's oldest PM in 100+ years
March 30 – April 03, 2026
Former NATO chief Stoltenberg's memoir reveals 2021 Baltic withdrawal discussions with Russia
April 03, 2026
Trump threatens NATO withdrawal over Iran war as alliance faces existential crisis
March 31 – April 05, 2026
Foreign Minister Barth Eide leads diplomatic efforts on Hormuz Strait closure
March 30 – April 03, 2026
Norges Bank faces criticism over aggressive interest rate policy amid inflation debate
March 31 – April 05, 2026
Norwegian Armed Forces expand defense capabilities amid regional security concerns
March 31 – April 03, 2026
Prince Harry advocates for online privacy regulations and pursues final tabloid lawsuit
April 01, 2026
King Charles faces criticism for skipping Easter message while honoring other faiths
April 2–3, 2026
Sylvi Listhaug celebrates fuel price cuts and criticizes government economic policies
April 1–3, 2026
Other
Sweden
Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, has promised Jimmie Åkesson cabinet seats if their parties win next year’s election. Mr Kristersson announced that his Moderates would form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats (SD) after September’s vote, with SD ministers running migration and integration policy. Mr Åkesson welcomed the commitment, joking about becoming “Minister of Migration Åkesson.”
The deal caps a decade-long journey that has taken the Sweden Democrats from political exile to the brink of power. What began as parliamentary support has become a formal partnership with guaranteed ministerial posts in the policy areas that matter most to SD voters.
Pål Jonson, the defence minister, signed contracts worth 8.7 billion kronor for air defences against drones. The mobile “Gute II” systems will be delivered in 2027-2028. The government also appointed an investigator to examine whether conscripts can be deployed on NATO missions abroad, potentially including Swedish forces in Finland and the Baltic states.
Sweden’s central bank and its commercial lenders clashed over interest rates. Major banks including Swedbank, Nordea and SEB raised variable mortgage rates by 0.15 percentage points despite the Riksbank holding its policy rate steady at 1.75 per cent. Elisabeth Svantesson, the finance minister, called the increases “tone-deaf,” while the central bank warned that such moves could influence its future decisions.
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- Kristersson announces Moderate-Sweden Democrat coalition agreement — Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, announced that the Moderates would form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if they win the September election, with the party getting ministerial posts in migration and integration. The announcement drew criticism from coalition partners KD and Liberals, and strong opposition reaction. (latimes.com)
- Break-in at Jimmie Åkesson’s home investigated by SÄPO — Jimmie Åkesson, the Sweden Democrats leader, confronted an intruder who broke into his garage at his home in Sölvesborg. SÄPO has launched an investigation into the security incident involving one of their protected persons. (aftonbladet.se)
- Sweden purchases 8.7 billion kronor air defence systems against drones — Pål Jonson, the defence minister, announced contracts worth 8.7 billion kronor with Swedish defence companies including Saab and BAE Systems Bofors for air defences against drones. The ‘Gute II’ system will be mobile and deliveries scheduled for 2027-2028. (di.se)
- Sweden celebrates World Cup qualification with political leaders present — Sweden secured World Cup qualification after defeating Poland in playoffs. Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, joined celebrations in the dressing room and was sprayed with champagne by player Gustaf Lagerbielke. (aftonbladet.se)
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