Regional Summary
Governing Means Losing This week revealed how quickly power can vanish in the Americas, as leaders from Mexico City to Ottawa learned that governing means abandoning the positions that brought them to power. Left and right face the same problem: winning and keeping power require opposite skills. Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president, faces this dilemma. She reversed her predecessor’s ban on fracking and allowed private partners in energy, breaking with Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s drive for energy independence. The shift was necessary — Mexico imports 77% of its natural gas from American pipelines — but it abandons the nationalism that brought Morena, the governing party, to power. When governing collides with campaign promises, governing wins, but at a cost. Lula now matches Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 race, the first time he has faced such tight competition since 2002. His approval rating has dropped to 29% positive against 40% negative, forcing him to reshuffle his cabinet while controlling state enterprises like Petrobras directly. When Petrobras’s auction drove gas prices up 118%, Mr Lula called it “stupidity, nonsense, banditry,” and the company promptly reversed course. This show of strength only highlighted how much he needs to use it. Coalitions are fragmenting even where leaders appear strong. In Canada, Mark Carney, the prime minister, will win majority control through floor-crossings and by-elections, but Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are splitting despite his 87% approval rating at the party’s January convention. Up to 40 Conservative MPs fear losing their seats under his leadership. In Chile, José Antonio Kast’s approval has sunk to 36% while his own coalition partners feud openly, and students throw water at his science minister during public ceremonies. Morena faces candidate selection controversies and internal accusations of “lies and betrayals.” The weakness runs deeper than poll numbers or coalition math. Across the region, leaders are learning that power built on rallying supporters against enemies cannot make the compromises governing requires. As they make those compromises, their bases fracture, their opponents gain confidence, and the arrangements that seemed permanent prove fragile. The Americas are entering a period where no leader’s position is secure, and the skills that win power are the ones that make it impossible to keep.
Canada
Mark Carney moved within one seat of a majority government this week as Marilyn Gladu became the fifth opposition MP to cross the floor to the Liberals since November. The defections have thrown the Conservatives into crisis.
Mr Carney now controls 171 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons after Ms Gladu, a socially conservative MP, abandoned Pierre Poilievre’s party. Her defection sparked controversy within Liberal ranks over the party’s “big tent” approach, but it positions Mr Carney to secure a technical majority through three byelections on Monday. The Liberals should win two safe Toronto seats and face a tight race against the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.
Mr Poilievre’s troubles run deeper than defections. Up to 40 Conservative MPs fear they could lose their seats if he leads the party into the next election, and some are discussing whether to invoke caucus powers to force a leadership change. His communications director resigned this week, another sign of internal trouble despite his 87% support at the party’s recent convention. Mr Carney delivered a campaign-style speech to Liberal delegates in Montreal, emphasizing national unity and “Canada Strong” messaging.
Mr Carney is hosting Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, in Ottawa next week for their first meeting. The talks will focus on trade and defence ties, including cooperation on critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and quantum industries. The meeting continues Canada’s push to strengthen Nordic partnerships. The Bank of Canada convened an emergency meeting with major banks on Friday to discuss cybersecurity risks from Anthropic’s Claude Mythos AI model, which can find vulnerabilities in major operating systems. The talks followed similar discussions in the United States.
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- Three federal byelections Monday could deliver Liberal majority government — Three federal byelections on April 13 could secure a majority government for Mr Carney’s Liberals. The party is expected to win two safe Toronto seats (Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale) but faces a competitive race against the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne, Quebec. (cbc.ca)
- New NDP Leader Avi Lewis announces critic roles as party begins rebuilding process — Avi Lewis, the federal NDP leader, announced critic portfolios for his six-person caucus as Parliament prepares to resume. Don Davies will serve as Parliamentary Leader, while Heather McPherson becomes House Leader. Lewis is rebuilding the party after its worst election result in decades. (cbc.ca)
- Christine Fréchette elected new Quebec Premier as CAQ chooses successor to Legault — Christine Fréchette won the Coalition Avenir Québec leadership race to become Quebec’s new premier, replacing François Legault. She becomes the province’s second female premier. The CAQ is currently trailing the Parti Québécois and Liberals in polls ahead of a potential fall election. (radio-canada.ca)
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Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum broke with her predecessor’s energy doctrine this week, announcing that Mexico will pursue fracking to boost natural gas production despite Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s long opposition to the technique. Ms Sheinbaum said the government would use fracking with environmental controls and keep private companies out, but acknowledged that Pemex lacks the technology to do it alone.
The energy shift came as Ms Sheinbaum launched the first of 15 planned Economic Development Poles, a $540 million project in Tlaxcala that will create more than 5,000 jobs. The pole features infrastructure including business centres, worker housing, and treatment facilities — industrial policy that goes well beyond the traditional maquiladora model. Both moves mark a more business-oriented approach than López Obrador’s, though still within his sovereignty framework.
Security forces seized 164 cartel drones since 2024, concentrated in Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Michoacán, while naval operations led to 81 arrests and nearly 2 million illegal cigarettes at Mexico City’s airport. The Senate ratified Roberto Velasco as foreign minister to replace Juan Ramón de la Fuente, who resigned for health reasons. Mr Velasco brings extensive experience in North America ahead of next year’s USMCA review.
Ms Sheinbaum also ended eight years of diplomatic tension with Spain, announcing she will attend a summit in Barcelona and inviting the Spanish king to Mexico’s World Cup inauguration. Congress approved Plan B electoral reform despite heated sessions that included lawmakers throwing oil at each other during an environmental debate.
Omar García Harfuch’s cultural phenomenon continues. The security secretary now has 84.4% approval and his merchandise — including towels, blankets, and “Harfuchas” bread — sells well. The Wall Street Journal covered his “sex symbol” status, noting his appeal particularly among women aged 40-50. The attention strengthens his position in 2030 succession politics while Morena faces pre-election tensions over candidate selections for 2027 gubernatorial races.
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- Banxico cuts interest rates amid inflation concerns and internal division over monetary policy — Banxico cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a divided 3-2 vote, despite rising inflation reaching 4.59% in March. Minutes reveal disagreements over Middle East conflict impacts and future rate decisions, with some members wanting to pause cuts. (elfinanciero.com.mx)
- Fire at Pemex Dos Bocas refinery controlled with no casualties — A fire broke out at the Pemex Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco, in the coke storage area. The incident was controlled by 150 Pemex personnel with support from the Navy Secretariat (SEMAR), National Defence Secretariat (SEDENA), and local authorities. No injuries were reported, and Ms Sheinbaum confirmed operations continued normally. (energiayecologia.mx)
- Mexico and US agree on border infrastructure modernisation plan — Mexico and the US concluded meetings in Washington for the Binational Group on Bridges and International Crossings, agreeing on a modernisation plan for border infrastructure to enhance security while easing commercial flow. The Foreign Affairs Secretariat (SRE) announced advances in technical coordination mechanisms. (mipuntodevista.com.mx)
- Morena faces internal tensions and electoral challenges ahead of 2027 elections — Morena is experiencing internal divisions with governors and leaders clashing over candidate selections for 2027 gubernatorial elections. The party faces challenges in states like Campeche, Michoacán, and others, while dealing with high-profile resignations including Montserrat Caballero in Baja California. (eluniversal.com.mx)
- Universal Health Service credentialing begins for seniors aged 85 and over — The Universal Health Service credentialing process started in April for people aged 85 and over, who can complete the procedure from April 13-30 at modules installed in various regions. The programme aims to provide comprehensive health coverage with new credentials requiring certified CURP. (nmas.com.mx)
- 13 soldiers linked to case for deaths of two girls in Sinaloa — A federal judge in Los Mochis linked 13 soldiers to criminal proceedings for their alleged responsibility in the deaths of two girls and injury of four family members in Badiraguato, Sinaloa in 2025. The case involves an incident during military operations on a highway. (quadratin.com.mx)
- US-Mexico cooperation leads to arrest of Cuban national wanted in Florida — Mexican federal forces arrested Yoexy Vila Hernández, a Cuban citizen wanted in Tampa, Florida for drug conspiracy charges, in an operation in Cancún involving multiple agencies including the Security Secretariat (SSPC), Navy Secretariat (SEMAR), and National Guard. The arrest demonstrates continued bilateral cooperation in security matters. (elfinanciero.com.mx)
Notes
Notes
Sheinbaum inaugurates first Economic Development Pole in Tlaxcala with \$540M investment during multi-state tour
April 10–12, 2026
Banxico cuts interest rates amid inflation concerns and internal division over monetary policy
April 09, 2026
Omar García Harfuch becomes pop culture phenomenon with merchandise and high approval ratings
April 6–12, 2026
SEMAR operations yield major drug seizures and illegal surveillance equipment removal
April 10–12, 2026
Sheinbaum to visit Barcelona for left-wing leaders summit, breaking Mexico-Spain diplomatic ice
April 10–12, 2026
Other
Brazil
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in runoff polling for the first time, leaving Brazil’s president behind 46% to 45% in what could be the country’s most competitive election since democracy returned.
Lula has responded swiftly on politics and economics. He reshuffled his team this week, naming José Guimarães as secretary of institutional relations and Paulo Pimenta as government leader in the Chamber to shore up congressional support before 2026. The moves come as Lula’s approval rating sits at 29% positive against 40% negative, with rejection rates nearly equal between the two camps.
Lula’s intervention in Petrobras was even more striking. After the state oil giant raised gas prices by up to 117% through an auction, Lula called the process “banditry” and “cretinism.” The company immediately reversed course, returning the extra revenues and dismissing its logistics director. The episode shows how far presidents have expanded their control over state enterprises — public criticism now triggers immediate corporate compliance and personnel changes.
Lula is also expanding state control over critical minerals through a new presidential council designed to break with what he calls Brazil’s historical role as a primary exporter. The move comes amid American pressure over strategic resources.
Meanwhile, tensions with the judiciary persist. Lula publicly advised Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, to recuse himself from a bank scandal case because his wife’s law firm has connections to the bank. Other justices reacted poorly, calling the comments unfair to the Court. The exchange reflects the institutional friction that has marked Lula’s third term as he navigates between coalition management and an increasingly competitive political landscape.
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- Flávio Bolsonaro intensifies presidential campaign with events across Brazil — Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, continued his presidential campaign with rallies in Rio Grande do Sul and other states, posting videos with politicians like Romeu Zema and meeting with business leaders. He defended amnesty for January 8th prisoners and promised to ‘climb the ramp’ with his father if elected. (noticias.uol.com.br)
- PT abandons own gubernatorial candidates in multiple states for strategic alliances — The Workers’ Party (PT) decided not to field its own gubernatorial candidates in Rio Grande do Sul and other states, instead supporting the Democratic Labour Party’s (PDT) Juliana Brizola and candidates from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Progressives (PP), and Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) in various states. The strategy aims to build stronger platforms for Lula’s 2026 reelection bid. (poder360.com.br)
- Lula vetoes dosimetry bill amid congressional dispute over January 8th amnesty — Lula fully vetoed the dosimetry bill that would have changed penalty calculation criteria for crimes including those related to January 8th events. The veto intensifies disputes in Congress over amnesty for those convicted in the January 8th cases. (ocafezinho.com)
- Arthur Lira purchases $1 million private jet after leaving Chamber presidency — Arthur Lira, the former Chamber president, bought a private jet for US$1 million in partnership with an agribusiness equipment businessman after leaving office in 2025. The aircraft was purchased through a company created shortly after his departure from the Chamber leadership. (iclnoticias.com.br)
- Central Bank faces criticism over interest rate policy and political pressure — Gabriel Galípolo, the Central Bank president, is under pressure from Lula’s circle over interest rate decisions and for allegedly defending Roberto Campos Neto, the former Central Bank president. Government allies criticise Mr Galípolo for not being more helpful to the reelection campaign. (oglobo.globo.com)
- Police find no evidence of Bolsonaro interference in investigations — Federal Police submitted a new report concluding, for the second time, that Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, did not interfere in police investigations during his mandate. Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, maintains the inquiry open despite police findings. (gazetadopovo.com.br)
Notes
Notes
Supreme Court faces controversy over Master Bank scandal and ministers' involvement
April 8–12, 2026
Arthur Lira purchases million-dollar jet in partnership with agribusiness entrepreneur
April 5–10, 2026
Central Bank officials received millions in bribes from Master Bank, investigation reveals
April 10–11, 2026
Other
Chile
José Antonio Kast’s approval rating dropped to 36% this week, the third straight fall since he took office a month ago. His government cannot hold together the coalition that elected him.
His alliance is fracturing. The Independent Democratic Union wants to dissolve Chile Vamos and build a broader coalition, while members of his Republican party reject what they call “campaign-style politics.” The parties fight over how to negotiate, how to coordinate, and whether the Republicans back the government enough in public.
Politics has turned violent. Students at Universidad Austral threw water at Ximena Lincolao, the science minister, insulted her, and shoved her security team during an event in Valdivia. Mr Kast called it “ideological violence,” but the attack shows how toxic things have become.
Markets tell a different story. Mining companies filed projects worth USD 19.6 billion for environmental review in Mr Kast’s first month — 530% more than Gabriel Boric managed in his first month. BHP wants to spend USD 5.15 billion expanding Escondida; Freeport McMoRan has a USD 7.5 billion project at El Abra.
Crime figures contradict his promises. Organised crime homicides rose 36.8% in Mr Kast’s first month compared to last year — 26 cases against 19. That undermines his tough-on-crime pledges, though a month may be too short to judge.
Even diplomatic wins bring complications. Mr Kast’s first meeting with Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, covered border cooperation and organised crime, but their joint statement mentioned Argentina’s Malvinas claim that overlaps with Chilean territory. The foreign ministry had to repair the damage.
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- Government audit reveals irregularities in final months of Boric administration — First audit report by Kast government found over 2,500 late-term hires, transfers exceeding USD 140 million, and questionable contracts in Boric’s final months. Frente Amplio demands explanations for audit methodology. (latercera.com)
- Kast announces first national address to present reconstruction plan — President Kast will deliver his first national television address on Wednesday at 9 PM to present the National Reconstruction Plan, featuring 43 measures focused on employment and economic recovery. The plan includes fiscal, institutional and growth dimensions. (df.cl)
- Protected Schools projects aim to enhance security in educational establishments — President Kast signed two bills to improve school security including metal detectors, bag searches, and stricter penalties for school violence. Opposition criticises measures as punitive rather than educational. (emol.com)
- President Kast takes drug test and proposes mandatory testing for officials — President Kast voluntarily took a drug test and announced plans to require periodic drug testing for parliamentarians and public officials. The move fulfils a campaign promise and addresses criticism about delayed implementation. (latercera.com)
- Former President Boric plans international travel to European progressive summits — Ex-President Gabriel Boric will make his first international trip as former president to participate in progressive democracy summits in Barcelona and literary festivals in Wales, requiring congressional permission for travel. (emol.com)
Notes
Notes
Kast announces national broadcast to present 'National Reconstruction Plan' with 43 measures
April 8–12, 2026
Kast undergoes drug test and proposes mandatory testing for officials and congressmen
April 6–7, 2026
Political tensions emerge between Chile Vamos and Partido Republicano in governing coalition
April 6–12, 2026
Gabriel Boric begins international activities as former president with European trip
April 10–12, 2026
Other