Regional Summary
Defiance on Borrowed Time The Americas this week showed how far declared positions can diverge from what governments do. From Ottawa to Brasília, governments that declared resistance to Washington found themselves, in the same news cycle, quietly maintaining the dependencies those positions were meant to conceal. This is not hypocrisy so much as constraint — but the constraint is real, and tightening. Mexico made the contradiction most vivid. Claudia Sheinbaum’s government issued a formal diplomatic protest over two CIA officers who had joined a Chihuahua state anti-narcotics operation without federal authorisation, invoking the 1848 war: “the last time they came in they took half the territory.” In the same week, her security minister announced on social media the arrest in Buenos Aires of a fugitive rear admiral and thanked the CIA for helping catch him. Fernando Farías Laguna had spent years running a criminal network that smuggled American hydrocarbons through maritime customs, using intelligence directorates he controlled and bribe networks reaching across the military, the civil service, and the private sector. The CIA was simultaneously the subject of Mexico’s sharpest protest of the Sheinbaum presidency and a partner in capturing a major target — all within a single news cycle. Ms Sheinbaum turned the Chihuahua incident against the opposition governor who had let federal channels be bypassed, which was tactically shrewd. But the underlying arithmetic did not change: Mexico’s security apparatus needs American intelligence, and talk of sovereignty cannot alter that. Lula tried a similar manoeuvre and found it less tidy. After Washington expelled a Brazilian federal police delegate who had helped arrest Alexandre Ramagem in Florida, the federal police director-general stripped credentials from a US immigration agent at the American embassy and sent him home. Lula endorsed the move bluntly — “they did it to us, we’ll do it to them” — then said he hoped to normalise relations. The police backed down on a second agent case, signalling retreat rather than escalation. The underlying problem remains: Brazil submitted a formal extradition request for Ramagem; Washington has not responded. Retaliating disrupted the law-enforcement link Brazil needed to press that case. The Workers’ Party congress in São Paulo, meanwhile, revealed a governing coalition more defensive than its manifesto lets on. The Planalto stripped more than ten references to Jair Bolsonaro by name before the document passed and dropped paragraphs touching on financial scandal and interest rate policy. Four polling firms now show Flávio Bolsonaro leading or tied with Lula in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro runoff scenarios — Vox Brasil put the São Paulo figure at 50.4% to 38.1%, outside the margin of error. A governing party that formally adopts judicial reform as a campaign position, framing it as bringing the Supreme Court closer to civil society, has moved from defending institutions to joining the opposition critique of them. That shift — from the government’s asset to its liability — is not easily reversed. Canada under Mark Carney offers the sharpest contrast. Having secured his majority, Mr Carney spent the week using it: rejecting American pre-conditions on the 2026 Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review, treating provincial liquor bans on American alcohol as a bargaining tool, calling Mexico’s president to co-ordinate positions, and winning federal approval for Enbridge’s $4bn Westcoast Sunrise pipeline — designed, in the government’s own words, to “diversify markets by increasing capacity to meet Asian gas demand.” His industry minister flew to Hannover to seek access to the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act. None of this is for show: the pipeline approval is done, construction starts this summer, and the EU bid is live. But Mr Carney’s strength is contingent. Alberta’s referendum, which may include an independence question if a petition drive hits its target, converges in October with Quebec’s provincial election, where the Parti Québécois is polling at about 31% on a promise to hold a sovereignty referendum if elected. If both become national-unity crises during the trade review, the room to manoeuvre shrinks considerably. What Chile adds — even in outline — is that the gap between posture and practice runs across the ideological spectrum. A president whose politics align with Argentina’s Javier Milei and who campaigned on border hardening sent his foreign minister to the Chungará–Tambo Quemado crossing to begin rebuilding diplomatic relations with Bolivia severed 64 years ago, setting aside Bolivia’s century-old demand for Pacific coastline — the issue that has wrecked every previous attempt. Pragmatism beat ideology at the moment it mattered. The governments handling the region’s pressures best are those willing to act on what is possible rather than what their declared positions require. Canada is the clearest example this week; Mexico and Brazil are the cautionary ones. The question for the months ahead is whether Lula can recover enough ground before his coalition loses the will to hold together, and whether Mr Carney’s carefully built position survives the centrifugal pressures gathering in the autumn. Both answers depend less on what these governments say than on what they are quietly willing to do.Country Summaries
Canada
Having secured his majority, Mark Carney spent the week putting it to work.
On trade, the shift was sharpest. Mr Carney committed publicly that Canada would not accept US pre-conditions on the July 2026 Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review, rejected what Trump officials called an “entry fee” before formal negotiations begin, and insisted on a “comprehensive approach” linking sectoral tariff relief on steel, aluminium, and autos to the broader agreement rather than letting Washington treat them as separate tracks. “It’s not a case of the United States dictates the terms,” he said. “We have a negotiation.” He tied the continuation of provincial liquor bans on American alcohol to tariff relief — treating them as a bargaining tool — and called Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president, to co-ordinate trilateral positions, with reports suggesting discussions of expanding Canada-Mexico critical-minerals collaboration. A 24-member bipartisan advisory committee, including former Conservative leaders Erin O’Toole and Lisa Raitt, established the negotiating framework. From Washington, Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, told Congress there are “good areas” in the agreement worth preserving — the clearest American signal yet that the US is seeking renewal rather than collapse.
Even as Mr Carney set the terms for negotiating with Washington, Mélanie Joly, the industry minister, flew to Hannover to seek a foothold in the European Union’s Industrial Accelerator Act — a scheme that shields strategic sectors from unfair competition and limits subsidies to EU-based businesses, but allows access for countries with free-trade agreements if they offer reciprocal terms. Ms Joly said Canada wants to be part of “an economic bloc” of middle powers. She also announced a $23m federal investment in a Siemens Canada battery manufacturing research centre, building on the Canada-Germany electric vehicle joint declaration. The European Commission was guarded in response, saying access “depends on the specific commitments the EU has undertaken towards each country” and declining to comment on Canada’s application. Canada has applied; the answer has not come.
The week’s most concrete move was federal approval of Enbridge’s $4bn Westcoast Sunrise programme, adding 139km to the pipeline network and roughly 8.5m cubic metres of natural gas transport capacity per day. The government’s press release was blunt about the purpose: the project is designed to “diversify markets by increasing capacity to meet Asian gas demand.” Work begins this summer; the target is operational by end-2028. The approval extends the Pacific export chain that Trans Mountain and liquefied natural gas (LNG) Canada established, and lands at a moment when the Iran war is generating premium global LNG prices. Pierre Poilievre’s response — “Finally! It took them forever” — and Bloc Québécois criticism that the Liberals are “rushing toward gas and oil” mark the political edges without changing the policy fact.
Not everything went smoothly on the diplomatic front. Mark Wiseman, the new Canadian ambassador in Washington — a Bay Street executive chosen for his Trump administration contacts rather than his diplomatic credentials — sent a reception invitation to parliamentary foreign affairs committee members in English only. Mr Carney said publicly “That’s not right, full stop” while defending Mr Wiseman as the right person for the post. Mr Wiseman apologised before committee — in English — and clarified that supply management was “not on the table” in his diplomatic role. Yves-François Blanchet, the Bloc Québécois leader, was unimpressed: “What does a diplomat do — is he a tape recorder?” Mr Carney made the division of labour plain: Ottawa would make all negotiating decisions, with Mr Wiseman handling access to the Trump business network and Janice Charette handling substance.
At home, the government moved to use its majority to take control of Commons committees. Steven MacKinnon, the House leader, tabled a motion to restructure all 25 Commons committees from a 4-4-1 Liberal-Conservative-Bloc composition — negotiated under the minority parliament — to 7-4-1 in the Liberals’ favour. Mr MacKinnon called it parliamentary convention; Conservatives called it a “cynical power grab” and the Bloc called it a “show of force.” The stakes are real: committee control means agenda-setting, witness selection, and — as in the case of François-Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, and conflict-of-interest questions about his spouse’s employment by a high-speed-rail proponent — the power to limit or pursue investigations into government conduct.
The Conservative opposition is in no position to mount a sustained challenge. New Angus Reid data found 30% of past Conservative voters want Mr Poilievre replaced before the next election, up from 18% in August 2025, with his national unfavourability at 60% — a record. Forty-five percent of Canadians cited his handling of the floor crossings as the reason for his party’s difficulties. Mr Poilievre launched a “Zero Tax on Gas” tour across southern Ontario, calling for the suspension of all federal fuel taxes for the rest of 2026 in response to petrol prices running roughly 15% above US levels. Mr O’Toole told him publicly to “forget the floor crossings, focus on policy” and separately praised Mr Carney’s advisory committee as “more serious than Trudeau’s approach” — a cross-aisle endorsement that cut directly against the Conservative critique.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) continued its retreat. Alexandre Boulerice, the deputy leader and last surviving MP from the 2011 orange wave — elected in Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie at every election since — announced he will leave federal politics to run for Quebec Solidarity (Québec solidaire) provincially. His departure reduces the federal NDP to five MPs with no representation east of Winnipeg. Avi Lewis, the party leader, could not persuade him to stay. The Liberals control the timing of the resulting by-election and are expected to call it alongside the anticipated Beaches-East York vacancy in Toronto, dividing NDP resources across two simultaneous contests.
At his one-year mark, commentators said it is time to deliver. Mr Carney’s Nanos contribution-to-Canada rating sits at 7.2 out of 10 — an all-time high — and he holds a 25-point net favourability lead over Mr Poilievre. But the BBC was direct: “The country has been willing to give him a lot of rope.” That rope now has to produce results. Two risks converge in October: Alberta’s referendum, which may include an independence question if the Prosperity Project petition reaches 178,000 signatures, and Quebec’s provincial election, where the Parti Québécois is polling at about 31% on a promise to hold a sovereignty referendum if elected. Alberta is already the only province where dissatisfaction with the Liberal majority exceeds satisfaction. If both events become national-unity crises during the CUSMA review, governing will be harder than it looks today.
The Canadian Armed Forces posted their best recruitment year in three decades. In the last fiscal year, 7,310 regular members enrolled, surpassing a target of 6,957, with next year’s target raised to 8,200. The gap between actual and authorised strength remains, but two consecutive years of hitting targets suggests the worst of the personnel crisis may be over.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Carney holds firm on CUSMA review terms as US demands pre-conditions and entry fees — Mr Carney said repeatedly this week that Canada will not accept US dictation of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review terms, rejected pre-negotiation concessions, and tied the provincial ban on US liquor to tariff relief. Coverage spans US demands for an ‘entry fee,’ Mr Carney’s 24-member advisory committee, his phone call with Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president, and escalating exchanges with US trade officials. Mr Poilievre called Mr Carney’s approach ‘showboating,’ while Mr O’Toole praised the advisory committee as more serious than the approach taken under Justin Trudeau. (reuters.com)
- Liberals move to seize majority control of Commons committees amid opposition pushback — With their slim new majority secured through floor crossings and by-election wins, the Carney Liberals tabled a motion to change House committee composition to give themselves a majority on all 25 Commons committees, drawing sharp criticism from Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois who called it a ‘power grab’ and a ‘show of force.’ Steven MacKinnon, the House leader, defended the move as reflecting parliamentary convention. (globalnews.ca)
- Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady at April 29th decision as Iran war drives energy inflation — Ahead of the Bank of Canada’s April 29th rate announcement, economists broadly expected rates to remain at 2.25%, as energy-driven inflation from the US-Israel-Iran conflict complicated the monetary policy outlook. Tiff Macklem, the bank’s governor, signalled it would ‘look through’ the short-term petrol shock while watching for broader inflationary spillovers. The bank also appointed two new deputy governors. (theglobeandmail.com)
- OpenAI apologises for not alerting police before British Columbia school shooting that killed eight — Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, apologised after the company identified an account linked to a person who later carried out a mass shooting at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School in British Columbia, killing eight people, but determined it did not meet the threshold for a police referral. David Eby, British Columbia’s premier, said OpenAI had the opportunity to prevent the attack. (theguardian.com)
- Liberal majority by-election dynamics: Terrebonne win, Liberals eyeing NDP’s last Quebec seat — Analysis of the Liberals’ recent by-election sweep and the implications for the Bloc Québécois, New Democratic Party (NDP), and Conservative parties, including Liberal designs on the Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie seat about to be vacated by NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice. Polling showed Liberals leading Conservatives by 12 points nationally. (hilltimes.com)
- Canada’s US ambassador Wiseman apologises for English-only invitation to MPs — Mark Wiseman, the new Canadian ambassador to Washington, sent an invitation to federal MPs for a reception in English only, drawing a public rebuke from Mr Carney and criticism from Bloc Québécois and Conservative MPs. Mr Wiseman appeared before a parliamentary committee and apologised, but faced continued questions about his views on supply management and his ability to represent Quebec’s interests. (nationalpost.com)
- Poilievre reshapes Conservative opposition with new caucus roles and Senate demand — Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre announced two new caucus roles — a Pacific Gateway Economic Engagement Caucus and a Property Rights Task Force responding to a British Columbia Supreme Court ruling — while calling on Mr Carney to appoint more Conservative senators before mandatory retirements reduce Tory representation below recognised party status. He also sought an Auditor General review of immigration screening. (cbc.ca)
- BC Conservative leadership race enters final stretch with five candidates and 42,000 members — The British Columbia (BC) Conservative Party confirmed five finalists for its leadership race — Iain Black, Caroline Elliott, Peter Milobar, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, and Yuri Fulmer — after membership swelled to 42,000. All five took part in a debate in Vancouver and members will vote in May. The race featured divisions between moderate and populist wings, with reconciliation policy emerging as a fault line. (vancouversun.com)
- Lapu Lapu Day festival attack one-year anniversary: Carney and Eby mark victims — Mr Carney and David Eby, British Columbia’s premier, issued statements marking the one-year anniversary of a vehicle attack at Vancouver’s Lapu Lapu Day festival, which killed 11 people, calling it a ‘senseless act of violence.’ (theglobeandmail.com)
- Carney condemns political violence following DC White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting — Mr Carney joined world leaders in condemning political violence and offering condolences after a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, saying he was relieved the US president and first lady were safe. (nationalpost.com)
- Winnipeg man faces expanded criminal charges including genocide advocacy for threats against Carney — A Winnipeg man previously charged with making online death threats against Mr Carney and Jewish and Muslim communities was hit with additional charges including advocating genocide and wilful promotion of hatred after Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) investigations into posts on social media platform X.
Notes
Notes
Carney holds firm on CUSMA review terms as US demands pre-conditions and entry fees
April 20–26, 2026
Liberals move to seize majority control of Commons committees amid opposition pushback
April 21–23, 2026
Poilievre launches 'Zero Tax on Gas' tour amid growing questions about his leadership standing
April 20–26, 2026
Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady at April 29 decision as Iran war drives energy inflation
April 20–26, 2026
OpenAI apologizes for not alerting police before BC school shooting that killed eight
April 24–25, 2026
Liberal majority byelection dynamics: Terrebonne win, Liberals eyeing NDP's last Quebec seat
April 20–25, 2026
NDP's Boulerice announces departure for Quebec provincial politics, reducing caucus to five MPs
April 20–26, 2026
Poilievre reshapes Conservative opposition with new caucus roles and Senate demand
April 23–24, 2026
BC Conservative leadership race enters final stretch with five candidates and 42,000 members
April 20–26, 2026
Carney pushes back on New Brunswick highway toll, presses provinces on internal trade barriers
April 23–25, 2026
Mélanie Joly at Hannover Messe announces manufacturing investments and EU trade access bid
April 20–24, 2026
Carney condemns political violence following DC White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting
April 26, 2026
Winnipeg man faces expanded criminal charges including genocide advocacy for threats against Carney
Mexico
Mexico formally protested unauthorised CIA operations on its soil this week and publicly thanked the CIA for helping arrest a fugitive admiral in Argentina — a split that, within a single news cycle, exposed the distance between the country’s sovereignty rhetoric and its day-to-day security dealings with Washington.
The sequence began in Chihuahua, where two CIA officers — one carrying a tourist visa, the other a diplomatic passport — joined a state police anti-narcotics operation that destroyed a drug lab. According to Proceso, both wore Chihuahua state police uniforms. Their vehicle went off a ravine; two Mexican officers also died. Claudia Sheinbaum, the president, said the army had no knowledge of the operation, contradicting Maru Campos, the National Action Party (PAN) governor of Chihuahua, who had claimed it was coordinated. The foreign ministry issued a formal diplomatic protest to the US ambassador. Ms Sheinbaum invoked the 1848 war: “the last time they came in they took half the territory.” The key finding was jurisdictional: US agents had joined a state police unit without federal authorisation, using channels that bypassed federal oversight entirely.
Ms Sheinbaum then turned the incident against Ms Campos. She accused the governor of allowing foreign agents in without authorisation and appointed Omar García Harfuch, the security minister, as federal liaison to the governor. Ms Campos initially accepted the arrangement, then established her own state investigation commission. PAN and Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) senators defended her, calling the federal response a smokescreen for security failures. By April 25 the clash had become a full inter-party fight, with Morena and PAN trading attacks publicly.
In the same week, Mr García Harfuch announced on social media the arrest in Buenos Aires of Fernando Farías Laguna, a rear admiral and nephew of former navy secretary Rafael Ojeda, who had fled using a false Guatemalan passport. El Financiero reported CIA involvement in the operation; Argentina’s security minister confirmed it. Mr Farías is accused of running a criminal network that smuggled millions of litres of American hydrocarbons through maritime customs over five years, using the navy’s own infrastructure — including 20 directorates he controlled, among them intelligence posts — and bribe networks reaching across the military, civil service, and private sector. His brother was arrested in September 2025 and is already in prison. Mr Farías’s lawyers have now implicated higher naval commanders, including Mr Ojeda himself. The navy’s public response: “the law is for everyone.”
The CIA, in short, was simultaneously the subject of Mexico’s sharpest bilateral protest of the Sheinbaum presidency and a partner in capturing a fugitive — all in the same week.
The week’s most important domestic development was less visible but may prove more durable. Ms Sheinbaum moved to displace the party leadership inherited from her predecessor, removing Luisa María Alcalde as Morena’s president — shuffling her to the presidential legal counsel’s office — and installing Ariadna Montiel, the social welfare secretary, in her place, with Citlalli Hernández taking charge of the party’s electoral commission. The party called its National Council for May 3 to formalise the change.
El País, drawing on more than a dozen sources, reconstructed the background: a breakdown between Ms Alcalde and her predecessor’s son, Andrés López Beltrán — Morena’s organisation secretary — that dated from a Japan trip scandal in July 2025, with Mr López Beltrán eventually refusing to reply to Ms Alcalde’s messages. By March 2026, those involved described the situation as untenable. Ms Sheinbaum’s intervention is her most direct assertion of independence from the network that built Morena.
The choice of Ms Montiel matters. The social welfare ministry runs the programmes the coalition relies on most at election time. Since Mexico bars a sitting president from campaigning directly, the party reshuffle is Ms Sheinbaum’s substitute for ballot presence. The political consultancy Integralia noted that Morena is, for the first time, “defending positions rather than expanding” ahead of 17 gubernatorial contests next year.
Even as the CIA incident dominated the week, economic negotiations moved quietly forward. Ms Sheinbaum met Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, at the National Palace to discuss tariffs, rules of origin, and supply chains; Marcelo Ebrard, the economy secretary, and Mr Greer issued a joint declaration at a second meeting and confirmed formal United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review negotiations would begin the week of May 25. Separately, the foreign ministry announced it was “finalising details ahead of signing” on the modernised Mexico-EU Global Agreement — a step beyond the previous ratification language. Both are advancing, according to government sources; key documents are not yet public.
The Senate, in the penultimate week of its ordinary period, passed four measures: a federal audit reform, approved unanimously; a contested housing law — backed 75-36, with PAN opposing it as an attack on worker savings — that allows Mexico’s two main housing funds to deploy a 2.4-trillion-peso worker savings pool to acquire and manage properties; an infrastructure ministry reform permitting it to build health facilities; and an administrative justice modernisation. Volker Türk, the UN high commissioner for human rights, visited Mexico from April 19 to 22, meeting Ms Sheinbaum, cabinet ministers, Supreme Court leadership, and all 32 state attorneys general. Mexico asked Mr Türk to support its migrant rights advocacy in multilateral forums.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Sheinbaum inaugurates Felipe Ángeles train linking Mexico City to AIFA airport — Sheinbaum inaugurated the Felipe Ángeles suburban train connecting Buenavista station to the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) on April 26, covering 41 km in under 60 minutes with an initial promotional fare of 45 pesos. Sheinbaum declared ‘mission accomplished’ at the ceremony, noting the project had been delayed but was now transferred to state operation after the private concession ended. (jornada.com.mx)
- Banxico monetary policy debate: inflation stalls above 4% target as analysts anticipate —
Notes
Notes
Deaths of two US agents in Chihuahua drug lab operation ignite sovereignty crisis and federal-state conflict
April 20–26, 2026
SEMAR contralmirante Fernando Farías Laguna arrested in Argentina on fuel-smuggling charges
April 23–26, 2026
Morena leadership overhaul: Luisa Alcalde exits party presidency, Ariadna Montiel likely successor ahead of 2027 elections
April 23–26, 2026
Brazil
Brazil stripped credentials from a US Embassy immigration officer this week and sent him home — the sharpest diplomatic move between Brasília and Washington, and a direct answer to the American expulsion of a Brazilian federal police delegate who had helped arrest Alexandre Ramagem in Florida.
Andrei Rodrigues, the federal police director-general, pulled credentials from Michael Myers, a US immigration agent working from the embassy. Mr Myers departed by April 24. Lula endorsed the move bluntly — “they did it to us, we’ll do it to them” — but said he hoped to normalise relations with Washington. The foreign ministry told the US embassy that the American agent must stop work immediately in the equivalent enforcement area. The police also backed down on a second agent case, signalling that Brazil was pulling back rather than pushing for a wider confrontation.
The underlying dispute remains. Brazil submitted a formal extradition request for Mr Ramagem after his release from US immigration detention; Washington has not responded. The agent expulsions played out and partly settled; the extradition request has not. The practical effect is that the law enforcement link Brazil needed to press the Ramagem case has been disrupted by the very attempt to use it.
The diplomatic row was not Brazil’s biggest story this week. The Workers’ Party (PT) held its eighth National Congress in São Paulo (April 24–26), approving a campaign manifesto titled “Construindo o Futuro” — Building the Future. Lula did not attend; he was recovering from surgery to remove a basal cell carcinoma from his scalp and a cortisone injection for wrist tendinitis, and appeared only in a recorded video from a separate progressive leaders’ event in Barcelona. The party approved its blueprint without him.
The document revealed a governing coalition that reads its electoral position as weaker than it would like to admit. The Planalto stripped the manifesto before it passed: they cut more than ten references to Bolsonaro by name, dropped a paragraph defending financial reform that mentioned the Banco Master scandal, and removed explicit references to interest rate policy. Fernando Haddad, the finance minister, called Flávio Bolsonaro “Bolsonarinho” — little Bolsonaro — in the party’s one pointed attack. Edinho Silva, the PT president, called for “humility” in reaching evangelicals and platform workers. The party added agrarian and media reform planks late to quiet internal factions. A banner supporting Nicolás Maduro appeared at the venue and drew opposition attention. Estadão noted the congress “exposes the post-Lula vacuum and resistance to renewal.”
The polls behind this caution moved this week from tied races to leads too large to dismiss. Four firms — Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha and Quaest — now show Flávio Bolsonaro leading or tied with Lula in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro runoff scenarios. Vox Brasil (April 22–25, n=1,480) put the São Paulo figure at 50.4% to 38.1% for Flávio — outside the margin of error and not a statistical tie. Paraná Pesquisas showed Flávio leading the Rio runoff 47% to 39.6%. Lula’s disapproval in São Paulo reached 54.2%. His re-election prospects are worsening in the northeast as well as the southeast — Lula’s fortress and his problem state simultaneously in retreat. An AtlasIntel poll billed by Veja as the key survey of the week had not appeared by week’s end; if it comes next week, it will be the first post-congress national reading and the best guide to whether the São Paulo and Rio leads reflect national drift or regional movement only.
The right coalition benefiting from these numbers is not running a united campaign. A feud between Nikolas Ferreira, a federal deputy from Minas Gerais, and the Bolsonaro family escalated this week over what reads as a triviality — Mr Ferreira switching from black shirts to white, which Bolsonaro loyalists read as an ideological signal. Mr Ferreira called Jair Renan Bolsonaro a “blind mole.” Carlos Bolsonaro called Mr Ferreira an “opportunist.” Flávio Bolsonaro tried to broker peace: “Support cannot be imposed, it must be won.” Mr Ferreira replied that the family’s allies were “undermining the very base your father created.” The quarrel reflects a genuine strategic disagreement: Mr Ferreira wants to reach voters beyond the Bolsonarist core and does not want to compete for attention with Flávio; the family wants loyalty and social media reach from their coalition’s most popular figure. Michelle Bolsonaro further complicated matters by backing a rival to Carlos in a Santa Catarina Senate race. The right’s arithmetic for beating Lula likely requires the kind of expansion Mr Ferreira represents — if the family drives him away, that arithmetic gets harder.
Two developments showed the Supreme Court’s legitimacy problem has deepened. The PT’s manifesto formally adopted judicial reform as a campaign position — framing it as “democratising” the court and bringing it “closer to civil society” — putting the governing coalition alongside the opposition in pressing for judicial reform. Folha reported the court is now split 5–5 between justices who want to fight back against their critics during the campaign and those who want to stay quiet. When the party in power formally calls for oversight of the court it depends on, the legitimacy deficit has moved from opposition attack to governing coalition liability.
Separately, the Superior Military Tribunal authorised the collection of Jair Bolsonaro’s military service documents this week — the first step toward deciding whether he and convicted generals should lose their military ranks. That accountability process is advancing through military justice channels alongside the Supreme Court proceedings.
Lula also signed a law extending tax credits to companies that buy recyclable materials and exempting sellers of plastics, paper, glass and metals from two federal levies — a minor but characteristic use of the tax code to steer industrial activity, routine amid the week’s larger noise.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Lula undergoes skin cancer removal and wrist procedure, discharged same day — President Lula entered Hospital Sírio-Libanês in São Paulo on April 24 for two procedures: removal of a basal cell carcinoma (a common, non-metastatic skin cancer) from his scalp and a cortisone injection in his right thumb for tendinitis. His doctor Roberto Kalil said the procedures were simple, the president was in good humour, and there would be no impact on his schedule. Lula was discharged the same day and returned to Brasília by April 26. (g1.globo.com)
- Bolsonaro awaits court approval for shoulder surgery while military tribunal weighs loss of rank — Former president Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest since March, sought court approval to leave confinement for surgery on a torn rotator cuff; the Solicitor General endorsed the request and it awaits a decision from Alexandre de Moraes, a justice of the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF). Separately, the Superior Military Tribunal (STM) authorised collection of military service documents to evaluate whether Bolsonaro should lose his captain’s reserve rank following his conviction in the coup-plot case. Cármen Lúcia, another justice, also rejected a habeas corpus petition aimed at modifying his house arrest conditions. (diariodopoder.com.br)
- Senate Constitution and Justice Committee to hold confirmation hearing for Lula’s court nominee Jorge Messias on April 29 — The Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee will hear Jorge Messias, Brazil’s Solicitor General and Lula’s nominee to the STF, on April 29 — more than five months after his nomination. Mr Messias has been lobbying senators for votes and is expected to be confirmed, with Zé Guimarães, the government’s liaison minister, saying negotiations are on track for approval.
Notes
Notes
PT holds 8th National Congress, approves moderated 2026 manifesto focused on Lula reelection
April 22–26, 2026
Multiple polls show Flávio Bolsonaro leading or tied with Lula in key states ahead of 2026 election
April 24–26, 2026
Brazil-US diplomatic crisis over Ramagem arrest escalates to agent expulsions, then de-escalates
April 21–25, 2026
Bolsonaro awaits STF authorization for shoulder surgery while STM weighs potential loss of military rank
April 22–25, 2026
Right-wing fracture widens as Nikolas Ferreira clashes with Bolsonaro family, Flávio calls for unity
April 22–25, 2026
STF becomes central 2026 campaign target as Zema escalates satirical attacks and court divides on response
April 24–25, 2026
Chile
Francisco Pérez Mackenna, Chile’s foreign minister, met Fernando Aramayo, his Bolivian counterpart, at the Chungará–Tambo Quemado border crossing this week and began rebuilding diplomatic relations the two countries severed 64 years ago — a pragmatic turn few expected from a president who campaigned on border hardening and whose politics align with Argentina’s Javier Milei.
Both governments managed the meeting carefully, setting aside sea access — Bolivia’s century-old demand for Pacific coastline, the issue that has wrecked every previous attempt to restore relations. “We do not have on our agenda a humanitarian corridor,
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Codelco shareholder meeting erupts in public clash between Kast ministers and outgoing board chair Pacheco — At Codelco’s April 20 annual shareholders’ meeting — the last chaired by Máximo Pacheco — Quiroz, the finance minister, and Mas, the mining minister, publicly challenged Pacheco’s management record, citing a 20% output decline over his tenure and demanding self-criticism. Pacheco defended the company’s performance and denied any crisis. Privatisation speculation emerged but the government later dismissed it. Pacheco visited Gabriel Boric, the former president, to discuss Codelco’s future, a meeting widely seen as a show of political support. (bloomberg.com)
- Kast submits sweeping economic reform bill to Congress, relying on People’s Party votes amid Chile Vamos ambivalence — José Antonio Kast signed and submitted the National Reconstruction Plan — a roughly 40-measure omnibus bill combining a corporate tax cut from 27% to 23%, fiscal adjustment and post-wildfire reconstruction funds — to the Chamber of Deputies on April 22. The government secured a pivotal but contentious agreement with Franco Parisi of the People’s Party (PDG) for the bill’s initial vote, while Chile Vamos expressed discomfort at being outmanoeuvred and opposition parties announced plans to challenge the bill at the Constitutional Tribunal on procedural grounds. (emol.com)
- Kast delivers combative speech against Boric legacy at National Renewal council, prompting opposition rebuttals — At the National Renewal (RN) party council on April 25, Kast labelled the Boric government a ‘disaster’ across employment, security and public administration, stating ‘there is no figure where they can say they did well.’ The speech drew immediate responses from former ministers Jackson and Cataldo, from Boric himself — who declined to respond directly — and from the Metropolitan Governor, Orrego, who said Kast was ‘dividing Chile.’ (emol.com)
- Criteria poll: Kast approval nudges up to 38% while disapproval holds at 49% — The April 26 Criteria survey showed Kast’s approval rating rising one point to 38%, while disapproval held at 49% and 13% expressed no opinion. The poll also probed attitudes toward the National Reconstruction Plan and Michelle Bachelet’s potential candidacy for a UN post. (cnnchile.com)
- Kast leads second-anniversary ceremony for ‘Héroes de Arauco’ Carabineros killed in 2024 — Kast travelled to Los Álamos in the Biobío Region on April 26 to mark the second anniversary of the murder of three Carabineros — Sergio Arévalo, Carlos Cisternas and Misael Vidal — killed in Cañete in April 2024. Kast praised the life sentences handed to the three convicted brothers and called for tougher penalties for attacks on public servants. (cnnchile.com)
- Chile and United States sign agreements on critical minerals and organised crime cooperation — On April 20–21, Chile and the United States signed two agreements: a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals investment (copper, lithium, rare earths) and an updated security cooperation agreement providing $1m in American funding to support joint Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Investigative Police (PDI) operations against organised crime. Left-wing media criticised the signing as ceding Chilean sovereignty over resource decisions to Washington. (reuters.com)
- Proposed cuts to school feeding and child health programmes trigger political backlash against Kast government — A leaked Finance Ministry memo proposing to end the National School Aid Board (JUNAEB) school meals programme and child health checks in schools sparked a political row. Kast defended the proposed cuts by attacking the Boric government’s handling of the programmes, while Quiroz, the finance minister, faced pressure from both the opposition — which demanded a special congressional session — and from within Chile Vamos. The government reframed the issue as management reform rather than budget cuts. (biobiochile.cl)
- Minister Poduje’s claim that government does not ‘rest on Chile Vamos’ sparks coalition tensions — Iván Poduje, the housing minister, said the Kast government ‘does not rest on Chile Vamos,’ contradicting National Renewal (RN), which describes itself as the government’s main pillar. The remark drew sharp reactions from RN, the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and Evópoli, reopening questions about the government’s coalition strategy. The episode coincided with a broader debate about whether Chile Vamos had ‘run its cycle’ — triggered by Cretton, a UDI deputy — and with calls by Kast to build a wider coalition including the Republican Party (Partido Republicano). (nostalgica.cl)
- Chile and Bolivia’s foreign ministers meet at border crossing in bid to restore diplomatic relations after 63 years — Francisco Pérez Mackenna, Chile’s foreign minister, and Fernando Aramayo, Bolivia’s foreign minister, met at the Chungará–Tambo Quemado border crossing on April 23, later continuing in La Paz and Santa Cruz. Both called the encounter ‘fundamental’ to restoring relations suspended since 1962. The two governments announced a bilateral consular commission and initial economic agreements, including an air services accord. Kast expressed interest in visiting Bolivia. (lanacion.com.ar)
- Kast’s private La Moneda lunch with university friends triggers Comptroller-General inquiry and public apology — Kast initially joked about and then acknowledged an ‘error of ignorance’ after hosting a private lunch for some 50 former law-school classmates at La Moneda palace, prompting a Comptroller-General’s office (Contraloría) inquiry into whether public funds were used. Kast said the cost was borne personally, promised it would not recur and said the inquiry had been answered. (24horas.cl)
- Appointment of ex-Boric minister to San Antonio hospital post sparks political row and mass resignations — The naming of Jeanette Vega, a former social development minister under Gabriel Boric, as medical subdirector of the Claudio Vicuña Hospital in San Antonio provoked a political row, with Republican Party (Partido Republicano) legislators calling it inappropriate. The hospital director was subsequently removed for ‘loss of confidence,’ triggering the resignation of roughly 20 doctors. The Party for Democracy (PPD) accused Republicans of imposing ‘political blacklists.’ (emol.com)
- Chile moves to speed mining permit approvals and streamline investment framework ahead of $100 billion pipeline — Daniel Mas, the economy and mining minister, announced plans to simplify roughly 200 procedures and cut permit processing times by 30% under a new sectoral permitting framework, without lowering environmental standards. The government also appointed Pablo Eguiguren, an economist, to lead the Office of Sectoral Authorisations as its chief permit-reform official.
Notes
Notes
Kast submits sweeping economic 'megarreforma' to Congress, relying on PDG votes amid Chile Vamos ambivalence
April 22–26, 2026
Kast delivers combative speech against Boric legacy at RN council, prompting opposition rebuttals
April 25–26, 2026
Kast leads second-anniversary ceremony for 'Héroes de Arauco' carabineros killed in 2024
April 26, 2026
Chile and United States sign bilateral agreements on critical minerals and organized crime cooperation
April 20–23, 2026
Proposed cuts to school feeding and child health programs trigger political backlash against Kast government
April 24–26, 2026
Minister Poduje's claim that government does not 'rest on Chile Vamos' sparks coalition tensions
April 20–26, 2026
Chile and Bolivia's foreign ministers meet at border crossing in bid to restore diplomatic relations after 50 years
April 23–24, 2026
Kast's private La Moneda lunch with university friends triggers Contraloría review and public apology
April 22–25, 2026
Appointment of ex-Boric minister to San Antonio hospital subdirector post sparks political controversy and mass resignations
April 23–26, 2026