Regional Summary
The Hardliners’ Wobble The hardline consensus that has unified central and eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fracturing—not because the threat has receded, but because the political costs have grown too high to bear alone. Estonia shows the clearest crack. Alar Karis, the country’s president, broke with his government by suggesting Ukraine should decide for itself about territorial concessions and calling for EU envoys to join talks with Moscow. Margus Tsahkna, the foreign minister, rejected the position within hours. Estonia spends 5% of GDP on defence, has blacklisted more than 1,000 Russian fighters, and is the EU’s most consistent Russia hawk. Yet even in Tallinn, the presidency now questions whether maximum pressure can last indefinitely. The split is institutional, not ideological—Mr Karis is no dove—which makes it harder to dismiss. Lithuania’s reversal is blunter. Inga Ruginienė, the prime minister, called her country’s decision to host a Taiwanese representative office a mistake that cost Lithuania dearly, and signalled “first small steps” toward restoring relations with Beijing. China’s foreign ministry responded warmly. Lithuania opened that office in 2021 as an act of principled defiance; barely four years later, the new government treats it as a warning about acting without allies. The episode shows how quickly small states recalculate when the diplomatic bills come due—even as NATO’s multinational battlegroup near the Belarusian border swells to 5,000 troops and the three Baltic states dismantle bureaucratic barriers to cross-border military movement. Defence integration deepens at the very moment diplomatic bravado retreats. Poland illustrates this from another angle: not a crack in foreign consensus but a fight over who controls the narrative. Karol Nawrocki, the country’s president, summoned a National Security Council meeting to investigate the Sejm Speaker’s alleged “eastern contacts,” aligning himself with the American ambassador’s decision to sever contact with the same official. Donald Tusk, the prime minister, fired back, insisting that “allies should respect rather than lecture each other.” The dispute is nominally about one politician’s associations, but its real subject is whether Washington or Warsaw defines what loyalty to the alliance requires. Mr Tusk’s trip to Kyiv—where he signed letters of intent for joint weapons production with Ukraine—showed that Poland intends to be a defence-industrial partner, not a compliant client. Power-sharing has turned Poland’s security establishment into a contested arena rather than a unified front. The Czech Republic tells a similar story. Andrej Babiš’s new government survived a no-confidence vote while protests continued in support of Petr Pavel, the president. But Mr Babiš’s coalition quietly delayed the transfer of L-159 aircraft to Ukraine for maintenance, while using creative accounting to claim defence spending of 2.07% of GDP when the real figure is closer to 1.7%. The Czech National Bank held rates steady, and bond markets shrugged at a modestly wider deficit. Independence at the central bank provides a stability anchor that political theatre above cannot dislodge—but the slow dilution of Ukraine commitments is real, even if it is dressed in technical language. The region is finding that wartime solidarity is easier to declare than to maintain. Presidents quarrel with foreign ministers, prime ministers push back against ambassadors, coalition arithmetic quietly trims defence pledges, and diplomatic gambles are recast as errors. Each country still arms, trains and spends. But the political machinery that held eastern Europe’s consensus together is cracking under the weight of duration, cost and competing ambitions. Unity, it turns out, is a depreciating asset.Country Summaries
Estonia
Estonia’s foreign policy consensus cracked this week when President Alar Karis publicly broke with his government over Russia strategy.
In interviews with NBC and Euronews, Mr Karis said Ukraine should decide for itself about territorial concessions for peace and advocated for EU special envoy participation in negotiations with Russia. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna swiftly rejected his position, creating the first major public disagreement between Estonia’s constitutional institutions since 2022. The controversy raises questions about Mr Karis’s potential second term and signals growing domestic pressure for accommodation despite the government’s hardline stance.
Even as his president called for dialogue, Mr Tsahkna reinforced his hardline stance. He visited Ukraine to open a resilience centre in Kyiv and continued pushing for EU-wide entry bans on Russian military veterans. Estonia added over 1,000 Russian fighters to the Schengen blacklist while seeking broader European support for the veteran ban initiative. The split reveals an institutional divide over the sustainability of Estonia’s threat-maximalist posture toward Russia.
Elsewhere, the government pressed ahead with defence improvements. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur announced one-third increases to conscript allowances — from 115 to over 150 euros monthly — plus air defence upgrades and a new defence education programme for eighth-graders. The ministry allocated €11 million for conscript allowances in the 2026 budget. Meanwhile, the Bank of Estonia has sold most of its gold reserves while global central banks are buying, keeping only 256.6 kg for historical reasons. Europe’s largest battery storage park opened at Kiisa through Estonian-French cooperation, representing €170 million in investment and improving grid stability after desynchronisation from Russia.
The institutional fracture comes as Estonia maintains 5% GDP defence spending and continues its EU policy entrepreneurship on anti-Russian measures, suggesting the unified hawkish consensus that has characterised Estonian governance may be under stress.
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- Estonian military and Defence League conduct training exercises — Estonian Defense Forces and the Defence League (Kaitseliit) conducted various training exercises including the Pikne exercise with allies, pioneer company training, and skiing competitions. Military services and recruitment activities continued across different units. (mtdemocrat.com)
- NATO conducts Arctic planning amid broader security discussions — NATO began military planning for Arctic Sentry mission while conducting exercises and assessments. Estonian experts discussed European defence capabilities and alliance burden-sharing amid changing geopolitical dynamics. (err.ee)
Notes
Notes
President Karis triggers foreign policy crisis with Ukraine negotiation comments
February 04-8, 2026
Foreign Minister Tsahkna visits Ukraine and advances Russian veteran ban proposals
February 01-6, 2026
Defence Minister Pevkur announces military improvements and conscription reforms
February 02-7, 2026
Other
Ukraine
The United States has imposed a June deadline for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, putting active timeline pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government as talks resume in Abu Dhabi.
The deadline emerged as Mr Zelensky revealed that Abu Dhabi talks had produced no breakthrough on territorial issues in Donbas, despite Russia presenting a $12 trillion economic package called the “Dmitriev package.” The US has proposed next trilateral talks in Miami, but Mr Zelensky expressed concerns about bilateral US-Russia negotiations happening without Ukraine. The deadline pressure appears to be driving a shift in Ukraine’s communication strategy. For the first time since the war began, Mr Zelensky gave a detailed assessment of battlefield losses, stating that 55,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed with a “great number” listed as missing. The rare official casualty disclosure breaks Ukraine’s previous pattern of wartime information control.
Ukraine enters these deadline-driven negotiations from a position of military strength. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian drone units eliminated 29,700 Russian troops in January versus only 22,000 recruited by Russia. Ukrainian forces launched three offensive operations in 2025 and formed a dedicated drone command, with about 25% of frontline clashes now Ukrainian-initiated and drones causing 60% of battlefield damage. General Syrskyi’s kill-to-recruitment ratio represents a measurable advantage as Ukraine positions for negotiations.
But vulnerabilities persist. Russia fired over 70 missiles and 450 drones targeting energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts and forcing nuclear power plants to reduce output. Mr Zelensky promised personnel changes in areas with unsatisfactory air defence results, as the systematic energy destruction campaign continues. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Ukraine introduced new lending limits and eased currency restrictions, transferring over 3.3 billion hryvnias for defence needs in January while forecasting gradual economic recovery despite wartime challenges.
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- US sets June deadline for Ukraine-Russia peace agreement with Trump mediation — Mr Zelensky revealed that the US has given Ukraine and Russia until June to reach a peace deal. Talks resumed in Abu Dhabi with mixed results, including discussions of a ‘special economic zone’ in Donbas and Russian proposals worth $12 trillion. Mr Zelensky expressed concerns about bilateral US-Russia negotiations happening without Ukraine. (washingtonpost.com)
- Ukrainian forces increase offensive operations as drone warfare intensifies — General Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian drone units eliminated nearly 29,700 Russian troops in January, exceeding Russia’s recruitment. Ukraine launched three offensive operations in 2025 and formed a dedicated drone command. About 25% of frontline clashes are now Ukrainian-initiated, with drones causing 60% of battlefield damage. (euromaidanpress.com)
- Prime Minister Svyrydenko meets NATO and EU leaders on energy assistance — Prime Minister Svyrydenko held meetings with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to discuss urgent assistance for Ukraine’s energy sector through NATO’s disaster response coordination centre. She also announced new utility billing policies during energy crisis and government audits of mineral extraction permits. (ukrinform.net)
- Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Defence Minister, implements Starlink restrictions — Mr Zelensky appointed 35-year-old former Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov as the new Defence Minister. Mr Fedorov announced that only verified and registered Starlink terminals will operate in Ukraine to prevent Russian drone use, working with SpaceX to impose a whitelist system. (pcmag.com)
- Sybiha launches diplomatic initiatives on various international issues — Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha made multiple diplomatic statements including criticism of football governing body FIFA’s potential readmission of Russia, initiatives to amend International Atomic Energy Agency statutes, calls for maintaining sports sanctions against Russia and Belarus, and urging resistance to Russian nuclear blackmail. He emphasised that only Trump can stop the war. (ukrinform.net)
- Russian attack on bus carrying miners kills 16 workers — A Russian drone strike targeted a bus transporting DTEK mine workers in Dnipropetrovsk region, killing at least 16 people. Mr Zelensky condemned it as an ‘odious act,’ while Mr Sybiha called for accountability and emphasised it targeted civilians with no military value. (franceinfo.fr)
- National Bank of Ukraine implements new financial policies — The National Bank of Ukraine introduced new lending limits and eased currency restrictions effective January 14. The central bank transferred over 3.3 billion hryvnias for defence needs in January and published inflation forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting gradual economic recovery despite wartime challenges. (minfin.com.ua)
- Ukrainian experts discuss NATO viability and EU membership prospects — Ukrainian analysts raised questions about NATO’s combat effectiveness while emphasising the growing importance of EU membership. Experts noted concerns about US commitment to Europe following Trump’s Greenland statements and suggested NATO may no longer be viable as a combat-ready alliance. (eurointegration.com.ua)
- Ukrainian forces conduct strikes on Russian facilities and receive new equipment — Ukrainian forces struck the Russian oil depot ‘Balashovo’ and other strategic facilities as part of operations to reduce enemy capabilities. The Armed Forces also received 70 new electronic warfare systems from German partners, including mobile reconnaissance and jamming equipment. (news.online.ua)
- Kyrylo Budanov appointed Head of Presidential Office — Former Main Intelligence Directorate chief Kyrylo Budanov was appointed as Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine effective January 2, 2026, replacing his previous intelligence role with this senior administrative position. (ukranews.com)
- Russia deploys Oreshnik missile system in Belarus — Mr Zelensky warned that Russia has deployed its Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus as part of efforts to draw the country deeper into the war. Mr Zelensky stated that Ukraine will ensure the weapons system ‘does not even start operating.’ (kyivindependent.com)
Notes
Notes
Ukrainian forces conduct strikes on Russian facilities and receive new equipment
February 06-8, 2026
Other
Poland
Poland’s cohabitation crisis has escalated into active institutional conflict, with President Karol Nawrocki using national security mechanisms to target the same official under US diplomatic pressure.
Mr Nawrocki called a National Security Council meeting for February 11, with the agenda including investigation of Sejm Speaker Włodzimierz Czarzasty’s “eastern contacts.” This coincides with US Ambassador Tom Rose announcing that he would sever contact with Mr Czarzasty over alleged eastern connections. The timing positions the president in direct opposition to the government’s defence of the Sejm Speaker, escalating cohabitation tensions beyond legislative vetoes into competing institutional authorities.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded publicly by criticising the ambassador, stating that “allies should respect rather than lecture each other” and defending Polish institutional autonomy against US pressure. The dispute reflects broader strain in US-Poland relations as Warsaw asserts greater independence from American demands while simultaneously deepening alternative partnerships. During a February 5 visit to Kyiv, Mr Tusk and President Volodymyr Zelensky signed letters of intent for joint weapons and ammunition production between Poland and Ukraine, alongside discussions on post-war reconstruction and energy cooperation. An evolution from logistics support to defence-industrial partnership.
Meanwhile, the right-wing opposition faces its first concrete succession questions. Law and Justice Party (PiS) leader Jarosław Kaczyński was hospitalised January 28 with suspected pneumonia and infection, discharged February 6 after successful treatment. The week-long hospitalisation sparked informal discussions about party leadership succession, with some party members expressing concern that such health episodes may become more frequent given his age, 76. The health scare puts visible pressure on a party structure built around Mr Kaczyński’s personal dominance.
Mr Nawrocki also exercised presidential powers independently this week, using his clemency authority for the first time by pardoning three individuals while rejecting five other requests. The pardons were granted for humanitarian reasons involving elderly and ill individuals in cases of unintentional traffic accidents, business fraud, and criminal threats, demonstrating his willingness to act without government consultation.
Poland’s security apparatus is broadening its focus beyond current military threats. Mr Tusk announced the formation of an analytical team and possible criminal investigation into Polish connections in Jeffrey Epstein documents, suggesting the network may have been a Russian KGB “honey trap” operation targeting Western elites. Annual military qualification also began February 2, covering 235,000 people including women with medical, technical and specialised skills needed by the military, as Poland continues building toward its 300,000-person force target.
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- Donald Tusk fulfils pizza promise to young Gdańsk footballers — Prime Minister Donald Tusk delivered pizza to young footballers from Gdańsk academy, honouring a bet made during November 2025 tournament. The story became viral social media content showing Tusk’s informal interaction with youth. (wiadomosci.onet.pl)
- President Nawrocki attends Winter Olympics ceremony in Milan, meets international leaders — President Karol Nawrocki travelled to Milan for Winter Olympics opening ceremony, meeting Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and other world leaders. He visited Polish Olympic team in the Olympic village and attended various diplomatic events. (sport.pl)
- Political polling shows KO maintaining lead over PiS, coalition scenarios uncertain — Multiple polls show Civic Coalition (KO) leading with around 32% support, PiS at 23-24%, with Confederation third. Polls suggest neither major bloc would have clear majority, potentially requiring smaller party cooperation to form government. (wiadomosci.onet.pl)
Notes
Notes
Jarosław Kaczyński hospitalized with infection, returns home after week-long stay
February 02-8, 2026
Donald Tusk visits Kyiv, announces joint weapons production agreement with Ukraine
February 01-7, 2026
US ambassador cuts ties with Polish Sejm speaker, Tusk responds defending Czarzasty
February 04-5, 2026
President Nawrocki convenes National Security Council meeting targeting Czarzasty
February 03-8, 2026
President Nawrocki attends Winter Olympics ceremony in Milan, meets international leaders
February 03-7, 2026
Political polling shows KO maintaining lead over PiS, coalition scenarios uncertain
February 02-8, 2026
PKN Orlen completes rebranding from PGNiG, consolidates energy services under single brand
February 01-6, 2026
2026 military qualification begins, covering 235,000 people including women with specialized skills
February 02-7, 2026
Other
Finland
President Alexander Stubb delivered an unusually blunt critique of American foreign policy, stating that the current US administration operates on “an ideology that contradicts Finnish and European values” and undermines the international order.
Mr Stubb’s remarks, delivered in a parliamentary opening speech, marked a departure from Finland’s traditionally circumspect diplomacy even as he emphasised that bilateral ties remain strong enough to permit such direct disagreement on climate change and international institutions. The assertiveness extends beyond criticism: Italian media reported that former President Sauli Niinistö is being considered for a new EU special envoy role to reopen dialogue with President Vladimir Putin, a move discussed between President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President António Costa. Mr Niinistö’s security policy experience and historical management of Moscow relations are viewed as key assets for post-conflict Russia engagement.
At home, the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) has emerged stronger from a harassment scandal that dominated headlines for weeks, with support climbing to 25% in the latest polling — a 1.1-point increase despite the controversy. The ruling National Coalition Party fell to 18.8%, giving the SDP a commanding 6-point lead ahead of the 2027 elections. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s coalition also lost a parliamentary seat when MP Mikko Polvinen, suspended from the Finns Party in October for voting against the government line on healthcare, formally joined the Centre Party group. The defection reflects tensions over regional healthcare needs versus coalition discipline and marginally weakens the government’s numerical advantage.
Security preparations continued with the Finnish Defence Forces beginning anti-personnel mine training using existing blast charges while new mines are developed domestically, with production targeted by the end of 2027. The training operationalises Finland’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty last June, addressing capability gaps that the Ukraine conflict identified as critical against Russian tactics.
Economic pressures persist. Finance Minister Riikka Purra floated potential pension reforms — changes to accrual periods for education, survivor benefits, and unemployment — while emphasising these were personal views and would not be implemented by the current government. The remarks signal future reform directions amid ongoing fiscal constraints. Meanwhile, a prolonged cold snap drove electricity prices above 82 cents per kilowatt-hour, prompting opposition criticism of Mr Orpo’s response after he had criticised similar prices under the previous government in 2022.
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- Mr Orpo announces intention to continue as party leader — Prime Minister Mr Orpo announced on February 7 at National Coalition Party leadership days that he wants to continue as party chairman. He has led the party since 2016 and addressed economic policies and criticism of unemployment figures. (is.fi)
- SDP harassment scandal continues with leadership battles and news agency corrections — Ongoing harassment allegations within the SDP involving multiple MPs. Tytti Tuppurainen was re-elected as parliamentary group leader, Kim Berg stepped down, and the Finnish news agency STT made partial corrections to reporting about Ms Tuppurainen’s leadership style after she threatened legal action. (is.fi)
- Mr Stubb attends Milan Winter Olympics opening ceremony — Mr Stubb and his wife Suzanne Innes-Stubb attended the opening ceremony of the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics on February 6. They also sent an encouraging video message to the Finnish Olympic team. (yle.fi)
- High school students celebrate traditional penkkarit — Finnish high school seniors celebrated traditional penkkarit festivities on February 5, riding trucks through cities in costumes and throwing candy to passersby. The tradition marks the end of regular classes before final exams. (yle.fi)
- Ben Zyskowicz announces retirement from parliament — National Coalition Party MP Ben Zyskowicz, parliament’s longest-serving member who started in 1979, announced February 4 he will not seek re-election in 2027. The 69-year-old suffered a stroke last summer but continued his duties. (yle.fi)
- Parliament establishes working group on healthcare regions — Mr Orpo announced the establishment of a parliamentary working group to address the future of healthcare regions (hyvinvointialueet). Opposition parties welcomed the initiative after previously calling for such cooperation. (hs.fi)
- Defence Minister warns about public disclosure of military information — Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen expressed concern about how much information is being disclosed publicly about defence procurements and capabilities. He suggested Finland should tighten rules about what military information is made public. (iltalehti.fi)
- Mr Stubb conducts regional visits — Mr Stubb made official visits to Vantaa on February 3 and is scheduled to visit Kouvola on February 11. The visits included meetings with locals, school visits, and inspections of military units. (vantaansanomat.fi)
Notes
Notes
Stubb delivers parliamentary opening speech criticizing US foreign policy ideology
February 04-7, 2026
Other
Lithuania
Lithuania is attempting to reverse one of its most controversial foreign policy decisions, calling its Taiwan office a costly mistake and signalling a desire to restore relations with China.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said Lithuania “jumped in front of the train and lost” by opening the Taiwanese Representative Office without coordinating with partners, hinting at “first small steps” to restore China relations. Beijing responded positively, with China’s Foreign Ministry saying “doors remain open” and hoping Lithuania will “turn its desire to improve bilateral relations into concrete actions.” Opposition leader Čmilytė-Nielsen criticised the stance as uninformed. The reversal represents the most significant bilateral diplomatic shift since the current government took office.
Even as it recalibrates its China policy, Lithuania continues implementing planned defence cooperation. NATO’s multinational battlegroup formally merged with the German 45th Armoured Brigade stationed in Lithuania, expanding permanent Western military presence near the Belarusian border with around 5,000 troops and advanced equipment. Separately, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia agreed to eliminate bureaucratic barriers for military movement between territories, creating a unified mobility space that allows rapid cross-border deployment of forces and equipment among Baltic allies.
Domestic politics remain turbulent. Former prime ministers called Ms Ruginienė’s response to Dawn of Nemunas leader Mr Žemaitaitis’s ties to criminal figure Aurelijus Perminas “irresponsible,” while Mr Žemaitaitis disclosed renting his car to the party for €31,500. Ms Ruginienė acknowledged that three possible coalition variants exist and that “nobody is protected” from potential changes, a rare admission of coalition instability.
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- German military wargaming depicts Russian conquest of Lithuania in days — A military simulation conducted by German media and defence experts showed Russia could seize Lithuanian territory and the Suwałki Corridor within days using a humanitarian crisis pretext, with NATO and US forces hesitating to invoke Article 5. Lithuanian Armed Forces criticised the scenarios for ignoring local defence capabilities. (independent.co.uk)
- German armoured brigade becomes fully operational in Lithuania — NATO’s multinational battlegroup formally merged with the German 45th Armoured Brigade stationed in Lithuania, marking a significant expansion of permanent Western military presence near the Belarusian border. The deployment includes around 5,000 troops and advanced equipment as part of NATO’s eastern flank deterrence. (euronews.com)
- US and Lithuania conduct joint HIMARS live-fire exercises — American and Lithuanian forces completed integrated High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) training with live-fire exercises at Kairiai training area. The exercises marked the culmination of the HIMARS apprenticeship programme, aimed at advancing Lithuanian artillery capabilities on NATO’s eastern flank. (army.mil)
- President Nausėda’s property under construction inspection — State Construction Inspection received complaints and launched an investigation into President Gitanas Nausėda’s Vilnius property to determine if construction violated state land boundaries. The inspection follows public concerns about potential regulatory violations. (lrt.lt)
- Environment deputy minister dismissed amid security concerns — Environment Minister Kastytis Žuromskis dismissed deputy minister Edmundas Mačieža, prompting Ms Ruginienė to seek explanations about the circumstances surrounding the unexpected termination. The dismissal occurred during a National Security Committee meeting. (delfi.lt)
Notes
Notes
Ruginienė calls Taiwan representative office opening a 'mistake,' hints at China rapprochement
February 03-6, 2026
Other
Romania
Romania’s far-right opposition leader may have lobbied against his own country’s interests in Washington, according to explosive allegations that underscore how anti-Western forces threaten the nation’s Atlantic alignment.
Dragoș Sprînceană, a Romanian businessman with documented connections to the Trump administration, publicly accused Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion of lobbying to remove Romania from the US Visa Waiver programme for domestic political gain. The allegations include claims that Mr Simion was intoxicated during meetings with US officials and admitted to making damaging statements against Romanian interests. The accusations suggest the party’s challenge to Western alignment extends beyond rhetoric to actions undermining bilateral relations. Romania’s state-level commitment to NATO and the EU remains unwavering, but the country’s largest opposition party appears willing to damage national interests for political advantage.
The governing coalition faces internal strain. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan received a 47-3 confidence vote from National Liberal Party (PNL) leadership but failed to secure the two-thirds majority needed to dismiss 10 regional party leaders with poor electoral results. Stenograms reveal deep divisions, with Alina Gorghiu calling the party “a party of misogynists” and significant resistance to Mr Bolojan’s reform agenda. At the same time, Save Romania Union (USR) deputy Emanuel Ungureanu alleged that National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA) Chief Prosecutor Voineag may be attempting to whitewash corruption cases against former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu related to the Nordis scandal, raising fresh concerns about political interference in anti-corruption investigations.
Romania’s military modernisation continues. Large-scale multinational NATO artillery exercises Dynamic Front 26 are taking place at Romanian training grounds from January 26 to February 13, with US and Romanian forces conducting joint live-fire exercises demonstrating interoperability and NATO’s eastern flank defence capabilities. The National Bank of Romania released its systemic risk survey identifying major economic vulnerabilities while warning about fraudulent documents circulating with BNR logos, part of its routine oversight amid the country’s acute fiscal crisis and 9.3% budget deficit—the worst in the EU.
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- Marcel Ciolacu faces renewed criticism over governance record and corruption investigations — Former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu faces criticism from Buzău mayor Constantin Toma about his leadership failures, budget blame from Bucharest mayor Ciprian Ciucu, and USR allegations about efforts to influence DNA investigations related to the Nordis case. (digi24.ro)
- Klaus Iohannis’ former protocol car auctioned by Sibiu municipality for €1,000 — Sibiu municipality is auctioning President Klaus Iohannis’ former protocol car, an Audi A6 3.2 FSI used when he was mayor, with a starting price of €1,000 as part of the city’s fleet renewal programme. (antena3.ro)
- AUR proposes elimination of housing taxes and presents legislative priorities — The Alliance for the Union of Romanians presented its legislative priorities including eliminating taxes on first homes and correcting injustices for disabled persons affected by tax increases. (partidulaur.ro)
- Romanian Senate elects new permanent bureau leadership — The Senate elected its new permanent bureau for the current session, with Social Democratic Party (PSD), AUR, PNL and USR representatives taking vice-president, secretary and other positions. (tvrinfo.ro)
Notes
Notes
George Simion accused of lobbying against Romania's Visa Waiver status in the US
February 04-8, 2026
PNL experiences internal tensions as Ilie Bolojan wins confidence vote but fails to remove regional leaders
February 02-3, 2026
Marcel Ciolacu faces renewed criticism over governance record and corruption investigations
February 04-8, 2026
Other
Latvia
Latvia has crossed a military-industrial threshold, becoming the first country to deploy domestically made autonomous drones to North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies.
Latvia, Estonia and Belgium became the first European countries to deploy “Blaze” autonomous interceptor drones manufactured by Latvian defence tech company Origin Robotics. Defence Minister Andris Sprūds announced the delivery as a response to growing airspace threats. This marks Latvia’s shift from defence equipment importer to producer, backed by a €50m allocation for drone capabilities in 2026, up from €20m the previous year. The government reinforced this by approving €40m for defence industry projects targeting military and dual-use manufacturing, with an additional €30m under consideration. The investment aims to create 280 jobs and attract €260m in total investment.
Even as it builds military-industrial capacity, Latvia is expanding its economic diplomacy beyond traditional European Union and NATO circles. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa made a working visit to Dubai for the World Government Summit, leading a delegation that included the Health Minister and entrepreneurs. Ms Siliņa met with representatives from Mubadala, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) sovereign wealth fund with a $380bn portfolio, promoting cooperation in energy, data centres and logistics. She spoke alongside Serbia’s prime minister on national transformation.
Domestic politics, meanwhile, followed familiar patterns. The Latvia First party submitted its sixth resignation demand against Ms Siliņa, citing excessive classification of government documents. Parliament lacked a quorum for the vote, with 46 coalition deputies voting against and one abstaining. The failed motion confirms the government’s ability to maintain discipline despite routine opposition pressure as the October 2026 elections approach.
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- Latvian officials attend Milan-Cortina Olympics, showcase Baltic unity — Prime Minister Siliņa and President Edgars Rinkēvičs attended the Winter Olympics, with Ms Siliņa skating at training and Mr Rinkēvičs meeting athletes and posing with Baltic counterparts. Coverage included equipment delays for Latvia’s largest-ever Olympic delegation of 68 athletes. (sports.tvnet.lv)
- President calls for investigation of Epstein files mentioning Latvia — President Rinkēvičs said Latvian authorities should investigate information in Jeffrey Epstein files that mention Latvia as a potential location for recruiting underage girls. He noted Latvia has not yet received legal assistance requests from the United States. (tvnet.lv)
- President supports European diplomacy with Russia while calling attacks near genocide — President Rinkēvičs said Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure “practically approach genocide” while supporting the idea of a special European envoy for talks with Russia. He and Estonia’s president backed European diplomatic engagement coordinated with Ukraine. (tvnet.lv)
- Corruption investigation launched at two regional hospitals — Investigators suspect officials at Ogre district hospital and Liepāja regional hospital may have caused over €300,000 in overpayments through potentially criminal actions when contracting with medical supply vendors. (tvnet.lv)
- Riga municipal companies dismiss Russian and Belarusian citizens — Multiple Russian and Belarusian citizens have been dismissed from companies owned by Riga municipality, following national policy regarding aggressor state nationals in public sector roles. (tvnet.lv)
- State Security Service initiates criminal case over Russian business ties — The State Security Service recommended prosecutors launch criminal proceedings against a Latvian resident for allegedly providing unauthorised programming services to a Russian company, violating sanctions regulations. (lvportals.lv)
Notes
Notes
Rinkēvičs supports European diplomacy with Russia while calling attacks near genocide
February 02-5, 2026
Other
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic’s constitutional crisis is showing signs of potential stabilization through elite accommodation rather than continued escalation.
The government survived a no-confidence vote as expected due to coalition arithmetic, but tens of thousands of Czechs continued rallying in support of President Petr Pavel. More tellingly, a presidential office meeting with Prime Minister Andrej Babiš expressed confidence that the prime minister will moderate potential disputes with coalition partners. The exchange suggests constitutional tensions may be managed through informal coordination rather than the institutional confrontation that many had feared.
Even as elite dialogue continues, the Babiš coalition is making tactical adjustments to Ukraine support that reflect its internal contradictions. Czech Armed Forces sent eight L-159 trainers for long-term maintenance through 2029, with four of these aircraft previously planned for transfer to Ukraine. The decision effectively delays promised Ukrainian transfers while providing technical cover for the coalition’s reduced Ukraine support. Coalition leaders confirmed the 2026 defense budget at around CZK 185 billion — roughly 1.7% of GDP — using accounting methods to claim 2.07% by including infrastructure spending at other ministries. Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) leader Tomio Okamura continues opposing F-35 purchases despite Mr Babiš stating the project must continue due to contractual commitments.
The Czech National Bank, meanwhile, continues to demonstrate institutional independence that operates regardless of political turbulence. CNB Governor Aleš Michl held rates steady at 3.5% while signaling potential for cuts as inflation pressures ease. The central bank and international investors showed no concern about the government’s higher budget deficit — 310 billion versus 286 billion CZK — with the deficit remaining around 2% of GDP. The steady monetary policy and market confidence provide stability anchors that suggest Czech economic fundamentals remain sound despite the political drama above.
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- Czech military modernization and Ukraine support under scrutiny — SPD continues to oppose F-35 fighter jet purchases while Czech Armed Forces sent L-159 trainers for long-term maintenance, potentially delaying their transfer to Ukraine. Military leadership focuses on training basics and equipment modernization. (novinky.cz)
- Tomio Okamura faces criticism over contradictory positions on German relations — Mr Okamura criticized Sudeten German activities in the Czech Republic while maintaining friendly relations with Germany’s AfD party. Opposition parties and analysts highlighted the inconsistency in his statements about German influence. (hlidacipes.org)
- Czech athletes compete at 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina — Czech Republic’s Olympic delegation includes competitive teams in ice hockey and individual medal contenders in speed skating and other winter sports. The women’s hockey team opened with a 4-3 shootout victory. (expats.cz)
Notes
Notes
Babiš government survives parliamentary no-confidence vote amid dispute with President Pavel
February 01-4, 2026
Other