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Regional Summary

The Rearming of Europe’s Conscience Governments across western Europe are projecting force abroad while bleeding authority at home, and the gap between the two is widening and forcing a reckoning. External strength is advancing faster than domestic support can sustain it. Germany offers the starkest case. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, has within months stationed heavy armour 30 kilometres from the Belarusian border, proposed giving the Federal Intelligence Service offensive cyber capabilities that critics call unconstitutional, and toured the Gulf to replace values-based diplomacy with interest-based deal-making. Yet his Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union has slipped to 25% in the polls, behind the Alternative for Germany at 26%, and the German business federation has written to express “blank horror” at the government’s economic stewardship. Mr Merz’s personal approval has fallen five points. He is building an expeditionary state on a crumbling electoral base, and Iran’s foreign minister — who called him a man of “disgusting character” — may be crude, but he is not wrong to detect nervousness. Britain shows the same problem compressed into a single week. NATO began planning an Arctic mission, the defence secretary negotiated a billion-pound helicopter deal, and the Bank of England held rates steady — all the machinery of a functioning state humming along. Meanwhile Keir Starmer, the prime minister, lost his chief of staff, then his communications director, while the Scottish Labour leader called for Mr Starmer’s head and the King was heckled in public over the Epstein affair. The Mandelson crisis has not just embarrassed Downing Street; it has collapsed the prime minister’s inner circle while the government’s external commitments roll forward on autopilot. France shows how far a leader can push this gap before it becomes structural. Emmanuel Macron, the president, has placed record military orders — 38 billion euros in 2025, with 42 billion projected for next year — and French intelligence is countering Russian disinformation operations. But Michel Lecornu, the prime minister, has now resorted to Article 49.3 three times to pass a budget, confirming that basic governance depends on bypassing parliament rather than persuading it. Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial may yet leave her free to run in 2027, and Jordan Bardella, her protégé, is already positioning himself as heir, meaning the National Rally can threaten from two directions at once. The Interior Ministry’s reclassification of France Unbowed as “extreme left” is a small administrative act that reveals large anxiety: when the centre cannot win arguments, it redraws categories. The same pattern appears elsewhere. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, faces crowds shouting “thief” and “fascist” in Cádiz even as his country’s banks post record profits and his government picks fights with Elon Musk; Vox has doubled its seats in Aragón to become kingmaker. In Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, announces joint air-defence procurement with Denmark and warns of Russian interference while his deputy calls him “petty” on television and Jimmie Åkesson, the Sweden Democrats’ leader, declares himself ready for the premiership. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, holds 45% approval but watches a former general splinter her coalition partner’s party while leaked Epstein documents tie Matteo Salvini to Steve Bannon. Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s prime minister, publicly rebukes his own crown princess, a former premier faces corruption charges, and an ambassador resigns — all over the same transatlantic scandal — even as intelligence services declare the gravest security environment since the second world war. What connects these cases is not just that Europe is rearming, or that populism is rising, or that old scandals are resurfacing. It is that the political classes capable of sustaining long-term military and diplomatic commitments are losing the domestic legitimacy those commitments need. Armies can be deployed by executive decision; keeping them deployed demands durable coalitions, parliamentary majorities, and public trust. Across western Europe this week, all three are in shorter supply than the ammunition orders suggest. The continent is building a harder shell around a softer core, and that is a structure which does not hold.

Country Summaries

GermanyGermany

Germany has deployed its first permanent combat brigade abroad since 1945, positioning 1,800 soldiers in Lithuania just 30km from the Belarus border in a historic break with post-war military restraint. The Bundeswehr’s Lithuania brigade officially took command of the multinational battlegroup Lithuania and will eventually reach 4,800 soldiers plus 200 civilians by 2027, including the Panzer Battalion 203 and Panzergrenadier Battalion 122 with heavy armour. Even as Germany commits troops to NATO’s eastern flank, it is expanding intelligence capabilities beyond post-war constraints. Chancellery chief Thorsten Frei announced plans for a new Federal Intelligence Service (BND) law giving Germany’s foreign intelligence service operational capabilities including disrupting drone communications, disabling crypto wallets, and conducting cyber operations — what opposition critics called a potentially unconstitutional “Tabubruch” (taboo break) regarding the separation between police and intelligence services. The military transformation coincides with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s most ambitious diplomatic diversification since reunification. Mr Merz visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE for the first time as Chancellor, meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other leaders to establish strategic partnerships despite human rights concerns. The trip focused on finding new partners in a “rauer werdende Welt” (roughening world) and moving away from values-based toward interest-based foreign policy. Mr Merz said Germany no longer puts Gulf states under “Generalverdacht” (general suspicion). The pivot beyond traditional Western frameworks extended to the Indo-Pacific, where Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul toured Singapore, New Zealand, Tonga, Australia, and Brunei to counter Chinese influence. Germany formally recognised the Pacific island state of Niue and signed raw materials agreements with Australia, with Mr Wadephul emphasising the importance of cooperating with “gleichgesinnten Ländern” (like-minded countries) amid global upheaval. This external assertiveness contrasts sharply with domestic political fragility. INSA polling shows the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) has dropped to 25% while Alternative for Germany (AfD) holds 26%, marking the CDU’s return to second place. Mr Merz’s personal approval fell from 28% to 23%. The German business federation sent a critical letter expressing “blankes Entsetzen” (blank horror) at the government’s economic policies after nine months in office, with 79% saying they see no “engagiertes Bemühen” (engaged effort) to address their concerns. Compounding the crisis, the CDU is engulfed in internal conflict over social policy proposals to restrict part-time work rights and cut dental care, with the party’s worker association calling the proposals from “super-privileged” elites unacceptable and state election candidates publicly rejecting federal party positions. Iran responded to Germany’s tougher stance with personal attacks, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calling Mr Merz a person with “widerwärtiger Charakter” (disgusting character) and expressing hope for government change in Berlin. Mr Merz responded coolly, calling it an expression of “great nervousness and uncertainty.”

United KingdomUnited Kingdom

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival as the Mandelson-Epstein scandal engulfs his government in its deepest crisis since taking office. Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigned this week, followed by communications director Tim Allan stepping down, as the controversy over Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to Washington intensified. The most damaging blow came when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly called for Mr Starmer’s resignation — the highest-profile Labour figure to break ranks. Mr Starmer told his parliamentary party he was “not prepared to walk away from my mandate,” but the government’s inner circle has effectively collapsed. The crisis has spread beyond Downing Street to the monarchy itself. King Charles faced unprecedented public heckling during a walkabout in Essex, with a protester shouting questions about pressuring police to investigate Prince Andrew’s Epstein connections as new US Department of Justice documents were released. Police removed the heckler, but the incident marked an extraordinary breach of royal protocols and public accountability pressure on the constitutional institution. Opposition parties are capitalising on the government’s weakness. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced new policies to support pubs, funded by reinstating the two-child benefit cap, and unveiled a Welsh leader as his party continues its advance. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch successfully forced government document releases over the Mandelson appointment through parliamentary procedure, with polling showing her favourability improving as she positions the Conservatives for potential gains. Even as domestic institutions fracture, Britain’s external strategy continues operating as designed. NATO began military planning for an Arctic mission as tensions rise over President Donald Trump’s Greenland acquisition demands, while Defence Secretary John Healey held talks with Roberto Cingolani of Leonardo about a £1bn helicopter contract affecting thousands of jobs at the Yeovil plant. The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% in a narrow 5-4 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating future cuts as inflation approaches the 2% target.
Starmer fights for political survival as Mandelson-Epstein scandal engulfs government
February 01-8, 2026
King Charles faces public pressure over Andrew's Epstein connections amid royal activities
February 01-8, 2026
Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% after narrow vote but signals cuts ahead
February 01-6, 2026
Reform UK advances policy agenda as Farage faces scrutiny over past allegations
February 02-8, 2026
UK Defence Secretary meets with Leonardo CEO over potential helicopter contract affecting thousands of jobs
February 05-6, 2026

ItalyItaly

Italy’s ruling coalition faces its gravest threat since taking power as former general Roberto Vannacci broke with Matteo Salvini’s Lega to form his own far-right party. Mr Vannacci left the Lega to establish National Future, taking some parliamentarians with him and prompting Mr Salvini to call it a betrayal. Polls suggest the new party could win 2-4% of votes, potentially weakening the centre-right coalition by creating direct electoral competition with Lega on the far right. The split follows tensions over Mr Vannacci’s controversial positions and electoral ambitions, and represents the most serious coalition fragmentation since the government’s formation. Even as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni grapples with coalition pressures, her government is expanding state power over civil society. The Council of Ministers approved a decree allowing police to detain suspected agitators for up to 12 hours without charges and expanding self-defence protections for officers and citizens. The measures came after violent clashes in Turin and Milan during protests, with the opposition criticising them as an attack on democratic rights. The coalition faces diplomatic embarrassment too. Leaked documents from the Jeffrey Epstein case show Mr Salvini mentioned 89 times in communications between Steve Bannon and Mr Epstein during 2018-2019, when Lega was rising electorally. The documents show Bannon updating Mr Epstein on European right-wing party support, including efforts to build an alliance with Mr Salvini and Marine Le Pen. The opposition has demanded Mr Salvini explain his relationship with Donald Trump’s former adviser. Amid these pressures, Ms Meloni conducted routine Olympic diplomacy, meeting with US Vice President JD Vance in Milan alongside Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She also held bilateral meetings with Chilean President-Elect José Antonio Kast, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during the Olympic period. The week’s most surreal moment came when a restored fresco in Rome’s San Lorenzo basilica revealed an angel bearing a striking resemblance to Ms Meloni. The artist admitted painting the prime minister’s likeness, which was subsequently covered over on church orders after investigations by the culture ministry and Vatican. The incident generated significant media coverage across 28 outlets. Despite these mounting pressures, polling shows the government maintaining 45% approval, suggesting the coalition’s tripartite structure can absorb individual defections while retaining core support.
Church angel resembling Meloni sparks controversy and removal in Rome
February 01-5, 2026

NorwayNorway

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre did something no Norwegian leader has ever done: he publicly criticised Crown Princess Mette-Marit for showing “poor judgment” in her contacts with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The unprecedented rebuke came alongside a corruption investigation launched by Norway’s economic crimes authority against former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland. Mr Jagland, who also chairs the Nobel Committee, faces scrutiny for his Epstein contacts while serving in high-level positions from 2016 to 2018. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide announced that Norway will propose lifting Mr Jagland’s diplomatic immunity to the Council of Europe. The investigation shows accountability mechanisms targeting even the highest former officials, demonstrating that the rule of law applies regardless of political status. Ambassador Mona Juul resigned from her Jordan posting after revelations about her own Epstein contacts. Mr Barth Eide called it a “necessary decision” after conversations during the week, with the Foreign Ministry continuing to investigate how her contacts might have affected her diplomatic work. Mr Støre initially rejected calls for an independent investigation but eventually agreed to parliamentary review, showing that democratic pressure can work even on reluctant leadership. Beyond the scandal, Norway maintained routine operations. Mr Støre sent a message to President Donald Trump urging Russia to extend its bombing pause in an ongoing conflict, and at the Arctic Frontiers conference discussed with EU officials Norway’s opposition to an Arctic oil moratorium. The country’s intelligence services—the Norwegian Intelligence Service, the Norwegian Police Security Service, and the Norwegian National Security Authority—released annual threat assessments identifying Russia and China as primary threats, highlighting sabotage risks and digital vulnerabilities. Ministers emphasised this as the most serious security situation since World War II, though the assessments largely confirmed established threat patterns rather than revealing new dangers.

FranceFrance

France’s 2027 election took a decisive turn this week when prosecutors requested Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility without provisional execution — potentially allowing her to run pending appeal while her party already shifts toward a new generation. In Ms Le Pen’s appeal trial, the prosecutor requested five years of ineligibility and four years in prison (one suspended) but critically without provisional execution. Ms Le Pen said she would be “prevented” from running in 2027 if the court follows the recommendations, but the lack of provisional execution means she could potentially campaign pending further appeal — a significant change from the immediate ban threatened in March 2025. As the legal uncertainty persists, Rassemblement National President Jordan Bardella has accelerated his own presidential positioning, launching municipal campaigns while polls show 69% of RN supporters prefer him over Ms Le Pen for the presidency. Even as the 2027 race reshapes, France’s governance crisis continues to deepen. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu successfully passed the 2026 budget using Article 49.3 after surviving multiple censure motions — his third use of the constitutional workaround, confirming complete dependence on bypassing parliamentary procedure for basic legislative functions. The institutional strain extends to administrative manipulation: the Interior Ministry reclassified France Unbowed from “left” to “extreme left” for municipal elections, prompting Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the France Unbowed leader, to denounce it as “Trump-like” manipulation and announce a Council of State appeal. Internationally, France maintains its confrontational posture with adversaries while accelerating military preparations. French authorities detected a Russian disinformation operation linked to the Storm-1516 network attempting to implicate President Emmanuel Macron in the Jeffrey Epstein affair through fabricated media reports and AI-generated content. Meanwhile, the Defence Ministry placed record orders of 38 billion euros for military equipment in 2025, with 42 billion projected for 2026, including aircraft, missiles, drones and munitions as part of France’s high-intensity conflict preparation.

SpainSpain

Spain is a country under pressure. The far-right Vox party doubled its seats to become kingmaker in Aragón while Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez now requires security protocols to avoid hostile crowds on the street. The Aragón regional elections delivered a seismic shift in Spanish politics. Vox doubled its representation from 7 to 14 seats, capturing 17.8% of the vote, while the ruling Popular Party (PP) won but lost seats and Mr Sánchez’s Socialist Party suffered a major defeat with candidate Pilar Alegría. Vox now holds the kingmaker position for Popular Party governance, following the same pattern established in Extremadura. The results are seen as a major blow to the Sánchez government and confirm the far-right’s consolidation as Spain’s third political force. The electoral setback coincided with escalating personal hostility toward the prime minister. During a visit to storm-affected areas in Cádiz, Mr Sánchez faced angry crowds shouting “fascist,” “thief,” and “son of a bitch.” Videos showed him using car transport to avoid walking on streets due to the hostile reception, continuing a pattern from previous incidents including October 2025 Día de la Hispanidad protests. The scenes demonstrate how legitimacy challenges now constrain the president’s ability to engage directly with the public. Even under pressure, Spain maintains its confrontational stance toward US tech giants. Mr Sánchez announced a social media access ban for under-16s, prompting fierce responses from Elon Musk, who called him “Dirty Sánchez,” and Telegram’s Pavel Durov, who sent unprecedented mass warnings to Spanish users claiming Spain threatens to become a “surveillance state.” Mr Sánchez responded with characteristic defiance: “let the techno-oligarchs bark.” The government accused Mr Durov of spreading “lies and illegitimate attacks.” Beneath the political turbulence, Spain’s economic fundamentals remain strong. The country’s six major banks achieved combined net profits of €34 billion in 2025, up 7% from 2024, with Santander leading at €14.1 billion. The banking sector benefited from higher interest rates and strong domestic performance, confirming Spain’s continued outperformance among eurozone peers. Defence spending also accelerated, with the ministry approving €436 million for modernisation of six mine countermeasure ships — tripling the previous allocation — alongside military salary increases of €200 per month and cybersecurity improvements. Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz continued pushing progressive policies, presenting proposals for worker representation on company boards despite business resistance.

SwedenSweden

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson has declared himself ready to become prime minister, escalating electoral competition ahead of September elections and prompting Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to dismiss the possibility. Mr Åkesson’s explicit claim to the top job represents a new level of ambition for a party that has spent years normalising itself as a potential governing force. Mr Kristersson responded by saying Mr Åkesson cannot gather sufficient support in parliament, reflecting growing tensions within the right-wing bloc. The exchange comes as the formal campaign season has begun, with Mr Kristersson launching a three-day bus tour with Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson and Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer, visiting schools and public events with themes of security and economic progress. The governing coalition itself is showing strain. Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch called Mr Kristersson “petty” in a television interview, accusing him of sabotaging energy agreements. The rare public attack by a coalition partner highlighted deeper tensions, with reports that Ms Busch’s Christian Democrats are considering cooperation with the Social Democrats. Such open discord between coalition partners is unusual in Swedish politics and suggests potential instability ahead of the election. Meanwhile, Sweden continues its systematic NATO integration and alliance coordination. Defence Minister Pål Jonson and Denmark’s Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced joint procurement of Swedish-developed TRIDON air defence systems worth 2.6 billion kronor. The systems will help create an entire Ukrainian air defence battalion with deliveries within approximately one year. Mr Kristersson also met with all party leaders to discuss foreign election interference, warning that Sweden is “not immune” to Russian influence campaigns and pointing to recent attempts in Romania, Germany and Moldova.