Regional Summary
The Autocrat’s Toolkit Gets an Upgrade Autocrats across the Middle East and South Asia are building machinery that will outlast any single crisis. Turkey’s president has made the prosecutor who sought 2,000 years in prison for a jailed opposition leader his new justice minister. India’s ruling party is rewriting parliamentary rules while its foreign minister claims “strategic autonomy” to buy Russian oil. Gulf monarchies are using oil profits to buy American infrastructure while creating identity committees in countries where nine in ten residents are foreigners. Turkey offers the clearest case of strongmen building institutions that reproduce themselves. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decision to make Akın Gürlek his justice minister puts the architect of judicial persecution in charge of the entire justice system. Mr Gürlek sought more than 2,000 years in prison for Ekrem İmamoğlu, the jailed opposition leader. The appointment turns an informal arrangement between the presidency and pliant courts into formal structure. The fist fights it provoked in parliament were themselves a symptom: when institutions are captured, physical confrontation becomes the only outlet left. Mr İmamoğlu may work 18-hour days from his cell and call for snap elections, but opposition mayors are already defecting to Mr Erdoğan’s party, citing “harassment and threats.” The machinery works. India’s government is subtler but no less purposeful. The contradiction between Marco Rubio, the secretary of state-designate, claiming that New Delhi agreed to curb Russian oil purchases and S. Jaishankar, the foreign minister, insisting on “strategic autonomy” suggests that ambiguity itself has become a tool of Indian statecraft — agree to enough to secure a trade deal, then reinterpret the terms at home. At home, the attempt to disqualify Rahul Gandhi from parliament, combined with a no-confidence motion against the speaker, signals that the Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition alike now treat legislative procedure as a weapon rather than a framework. Narendra Modi, the prime minister, moved his office to a complex called “Seva Teerth” — “freedom from slavery,” in his telling — wrapping institutional change in nationalist symbolism and making it harder to oppose without appearing unpatriotic. The Gulf monarchies are playing a longer game with bigger budgets. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has shifted its 2030 strategy from vanity megaprojects toward logistics, mining and clean energy — a pragmatic admission that spectacle alone does not build an economy, though $16 billion in memorandums of understanding at a single forum shows the kingdom can still command capital’s attention. The UAE, meanwhile, is using record profits from ADNOC, the state oil company, to buy American infrastructure — Mubadala’s $6.2 billion acquisition of Clear Channel gives Abu Dhabi control of the largest outdoor advertising network in the United States — while simultaneously sending diplomats to Tehran and joining an eight-country condemnation of Israel’s West Bank expansion. The creation of a National Identity Committee in a country where nearly nine in ten residents are foreign nationals tells the story. When a regime that derives legitimacy from tribal authority starts institutionalising identity, it is acknowledging a demographic weakness it would rather not name. What connects Ankara’s captured judiciary, New Delhi’s rewritten parliamentary norms, Riyadh’s strategic shift and Abu Dhabi’s identity anxieties is the recognition that raw power is fragile unless it is embedded in institutions that reproduce themselves. In other words, authoritarianism as infrastructure — purpose-built, professionally staffed and built to function long after the current headline fades.Country Summaries
Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made the prosecutor who wanted to jail opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu for over 2,000 years his new justice minister. The appointment triggered fist fights in parliament and represents the most aggressive use of the courts against opponents since Turkey’s founding.
Akın Gürlek, who as Istanbul’s chief prosecutor led an unprecedented crackdown on the opposition Republican People’s Party, took his oath as opposition MPs tried to physically stop him. The party called the appointment “an attack on the rule of law.” Mr Gürlek’s promotion puts the man behind the judicial persecution in control of Turkey’s entire justice system. It marks a big step up in Mr Erdoğan’s plan to crush electoral threats through the courts rather than elections.
From his cell in Silivri prison, Mr İmamoğlu hit back, telling Reuters that the president should call elections “now” and predicting Mr Erdoğan would lose if he ran again. Mr İmamoğlu works 18-hour days while facing over ten cases, with his main corruption trial starting next month. His imprisonment has not silenced him, but it is part of a broader campaign that is weakening the opposition. Several opposition mayors are now switching to Mr Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, with Keçiören mayor Mesut Özarslan citing “harassment and threats” from party leaders when he quit. Reports suggest three to four more Ankara mayors may follow, potentially shifting council majorities across the capital.
Turkey stuck to its usual diplomatic routine abroad. Mr Erdoğan met Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister, to discuss Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean issues, the Gaza peace process, and Syria — standard talks between NATO allies. Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, upset Baghdad with comments about Kurdistan Workers’ Party presence in Iraq, prompting Iraq to summon Turkey’s ambassador, though Ankara said the remarks addressed terrorist threats to Iraq’s territorial integrity. More telling was Mr Fidan’s silence during a televised interview when asked whether Turkey should get nuclear weapons — he responded only with a smile. Israeli and Greek media saw this as deliberate ambiguity, with Greek outlets calling it a “silent signal” that Turkey “closes no doors and leaves all scenarios open.”
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- Nationalist Movement Party celebrates 57th anniversary with Bahçeli’s ‘Terror-free Turkey’ message — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli marked his party’s 57th anniversary with speeches emphasising the ‘Terror-free Turkey’ process and brotherhood between Turks and Kurds. Mr Erdoğan sent a 57-rose bouquet with Turkish flag motifs to congratulate Mr Bahçeli.
- Bahçeli praises Turkish TV drama, calls actor to offer gift — MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli called the lead actor of the ‘Yeraltı’ (Underground) TV series to praise the show for encouraging youth to avoid bad habits. He offered to send a ‘bozkurt’ (grey wolf) painting as a gift to the cast.
- Central Bank raises 2026 inflation forecast amid economic pressures — Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) Governor Fatih Karahan announced upward revision of 2026 year-end inflation forecasts during the quarterly inflation report. The bank maintained its cautious and data-dependent monetary policy approach while reserves showed decline due to gold price effects.
- Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party delegation prepares for İmralı visit as part of ‘Terror-free Turkey’ process — Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) announced that its İmralı delegation would visit Abdullah Öcalan on February 16. This follows meetings between DEM Party leaders and President Erdoğan as part of the ongoing ‘Terror-free Turkey’ initiative.
- Bloomberg reports speculation about Bilal Erdoğan as potential successor — US-based Bloomberg published analysis suggesting President Erdoğan’s son Bilal Erdoğan is being politically groomed as a potential successor. The report discussed his increasing profile and possible roles within AKP leadership structure.
- National Intelligence Organisation chief meets with Libyan Prime Minister in Tripoli — National Intelligence Organisation head İbrahim Kalın met with Libyan PM Abdulhamid Dibeybe in Tripoli to discuss regional issues and coordinated international efforts to support Libya’s political process.
- Turkish Armed Forces participate in NATO’s Steadfast Dart 2026 exercise — Turkish military participated in NATO’s largest exercise with TCG Anadolu and TB-3 drones making notable impression. NATO praised Turkish forces’ capabilities during the multinational training in Germany.
- Erdoğan issues gambling warning, leading public banks to restrict betting payments — President Erdoğan warned that gambling addiction threatens family institutions, saying ‘every phone has become a casino.’ Following his statement, three state banks restricted payments to gambling websites through mobile banking.
Notes
Notes
Multiple investigations and trials continue against jailed Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu
February 10-15, 2026
Foreign Minister Fidan refuses to answer nuclear weapons question during TV interview
February 10, 2026
DEM Party delegation prepares for İmralı visit as part of 'Terror-free Turkey' process
February 10-15, 2026
Finance Minister Şimşek promotes Turkish economic resilience at international forums
February 09-13, 2026
Erdoğan issues gambling warning, leading public banks to restrict betting payments
February 08, 2026
Other
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is reshaping its Vision 2030 economic plan, cutting back on megaprojects for practical sectors while managing growing friction with the UAE.
The kingdom’s $925 billion Public Investment Fund (PIF) announced a new 2026-2030 strategy focusing on logistics, mining, manufacturing and clean energy while cutting back on some megaprojects. Saudi Aramco started light oil condensate production from the Jafurah gas project after completing Phase 1 — the kingdom’s first major fracking operation, with initial cargoes sold to Asian buyers. The PIF Forum generated $16 billion in memorandums of understanding.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted Britain’s Prince William for an official visit on trade and economic cooperation, showing continued high-level Western engagement despite human rights concerns. But the kingdom’s relations with the UAE have soured to the point of commercial disruption: though 30 Emirati entities were listed as exhibitors at Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show, their presence was barely visible on the show floor. Defence industry sources linked the absence to deteriorating ties over regional disputes including Yemen. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the defence minister, also signed a memorandum of understanding with his Somali counterpart to strengthen defence cooperation as Somalia seeks regional backing against Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.
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- DP World CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem resigns after being named in Epstein files — Dubai-based port operator DP World announced new leadership after CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem was identified in recently released Jeffrey Epstein files, showing extensive correspondence between the two men over more than a decade. (edition.cnn.com)
- Public Investment Fund unveils revised five-year strategy with focus shift — Saudi Arabia’s $925 billion Public Investment Fund announced a new 2026-2030 strategy focusing more on logistics, mining, manufacturing, and clean energy while scaling back from some megaprojects. The PIF Forum yielded $16 billion in memorandums of understanding. (reuters.com)
- World Defense Show 2026 concludes with $8.8 billion in contracts signed — Saudi Arabia’s third World Defense Show in Riyadh ended with over 60 military and defense contracts worth $8.8 billion signed with local and international companies. The event highlighted the kingdom’s push to localise 50% of defense spending by 2030. (saudigazette.com.sa)
- Saudi Arabia scales back giga-projects including NEOM to focus on 2034 World Cup — Saudi Arabia is reportedly scaling back ambitious megaprojects including NEOM’s ‘The Line’ to prioritise 2034 World Cup preparations and address budget constraints. Construction contracts dropped nearly 40% as the kingdom reassesses its Vision 2030 priorities. (agbi.com)
- Saudi Aramco achieves 70% local content target through Iktva program — Saudi Aramco announced its supply chain transformation program Iktva has reached its 70% local content target, contributing $280 billion to GDP and creating over 200,000 jobs. The company plans to increase localisation further by 2030. (english.aawsat.com)
- Saudi Arabia and Microsoft sign memorandum of understanding to advance AI in industrial sector — Saudi Aramco and Microsoft signed a memorandum of understanding to explore digital initiatives aimed at accelerating artificial intelligence adoption in industrial sectors and enhancing Saudi Arabia’s digital sovereignty capabilities. (techafricanews.com)
- Saudi Foreign Minister holds diplomatic meetings at Munich Security Conference — Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan attended the Munich Security Conference, meeting with US officials including antisemitism envoy Rabbi Yehuda Kaploun and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani to discuss regional developments and bilateral relations. (english.aawsat.com)
- Saudi Arabia condemns foreign interference in Sudan amid Rapid Support Forces attacks — Saudi Arabia reaffirmed support for Sudan’s unity and condemned attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Kordofan states, denouncing foreign interference in the conflict while Saudi air defences intercepted Iranian drones over the Eastern Province. (aljazeera.com)
- Controlled comeback of Abdullah clan into crown prince’s inner circle — Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, former head of the Saudi National Guard and son of late King Abdullah, is making a discreet return to influence within the crown prince’s inner circle after being targeted in the 2017 corruption crackdown. (intelligenceonline.com)
- Aston Martin Aramco Formula One team unveils 2026 season livery with Honda partnership — Aston Martin Aramco Formula One Team launched its 2026 season at Ithra in Saudi Arabia, unveiling the AMR26 car livery powered by Honda’s RA626H power unit and featuring Aramco’s sustainable fuel technology. (astonmartinf1.com)
Notes
Notes
Prince William conducts official visit to Saudi Arabia amid Epstein scandal fallout
February 08-14, 2026
King Salman issues royal decrees reshuffling cabinet, appoints new investment minister
February 12-13, 2026
DP World CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem resigns after being named in Epstein files
February 10-13, 2026
Saudi Arabia scales back giga-projects including NEOM to focus on 2034 World Cup
February 08-13, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
The UAE is using record oil profits to fund a $6.2 billion American acquisition while balancing diplomatic ties with both Iran and the Arab world.
ADNOC’s subsidiaries made record profits in 2025 despite lower oil prices, with ADNOC Gas reporting a $5.2 billion profit and ADNOC Drilling achieving record net income of $1.45 billion, up 11%. The windfall is funding the emirate’s shopping spree: Mubadala Capital agreed to buy Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings for $2.43 per share, a 71% premium, with Abu Dhabi putting up $3 billion. The deal gives the emirate control of America’s largest outdoor advertising network.
The UAE continues to hedge its bets diplomatically. Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s minister of state, held talks with Iran’s deputy foreign minister in Tehran, agreeing to maintain regular contact and set up joint technical committees. Days later, the UAE joined Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar in condemning Israel’s decision to expand West Bank powers, calling the moves illegal and damaging to the two-state solution.
The most telling domestic move was creating a National Identity Committee. Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister, set up the body led by Sheikha Mariam bint Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to strengthen Emirati national identity and carry out the National Identity Strategy. In a country where 89% of residents are foreign nationals, the focus on shoring up identity suggests the regime is watching demographic pressures that could threaten its traditional authority.
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- UAE President holds diplomatic meetings with regional leaders — President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed conducted a series of meetings with regional leaders including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, Bahrain’s Crown Prince, and other Gulf officials. The meetings focused on bilateral relations and regional developments. (al-monitor.com)
- G42 signs $1 billion AI infrastructure deal with Vietnamese consortium — Abu Dhabi-based AI company G42 partnered with FPT Corporation and Viet Thai Group to develop sovereign AI capabilities and cloud infrastructure across Vietnam. The agreement includes building three data centers with consumption commitments of up to $1 billion. (prnewswire.com)
- Mr bin Zayed establishes National Identity Committee — Mr bin Zayed, the foreign minister, issued a decision to establish the National Identity Committee, chaired by Sheikha Mariam bint Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The committee will oversee the National Identity Strategy and strengthen Emirati national identity. (bignewsnetwork.com)
- Central Bank activities include gold reserves surge and stablecoin approval — The UAE Central Bank announced a 64.93% surge in gold reserves to $10.32 billion and approved the UAE dirham-backed stablecoin ‘DDSC’. The bank also issued commemorative coins for Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence’s 5th anniversary. (sharjah24.ae)
- UAE hosts international sports and cultural events — The UAE hosted several major events including the UAE SWAT Challenge 2026 with teams from 40+ countries, the second Abu Dhabi Poetry Festival, and the Open Masters Games Abu Dhabi 2026. Kazakhstan won gold and silver at the SWAT Challenge. (mediaoffice.abudhabi)
- Analysis pieces highlight Saudi-UAE regional rivalry — Multiple analysis pieces examined the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, particularly in the Horn of Africa and Sudan conflict, where the two countries back opposing sides. The rivalry extends to Yemen and other regional proxy conflicts. (newarab.com)
Notes
Notes
Other
India
India and America are publicly disagreeing about what New Delhi promised to do about Russian oil.
The dispute erupted at the Munich Security Conference, where Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, claimed India had agreed to stop buying “additional Russian oil” as part of February’s trade deal. S. Jaishankar, India’s external affairs minister, shot back that India remains “firmly wedded to strategic autonomy” and would make “independent choices” that may not align with US thinking, insisting that commercial considerations guide energy buying decisions. The contradiction suggests the trade agreement may not have resolved tensions as cleanly as it first appeared.
India is continuing with military modernisation and internal security operations. The Defence Acquisition Council approved ₹3.60 lakh crore worth of purchases, including 114 additional Rafale fighter jets from Dassault and six P-8I maritime patrol aircraft. The emphasis on proven platforms reflects lessons from last year’s Operation Sindoor confrontation. Separately, Amit Shah, the home minister, declared that Naxalism would be “completely wiped out” before March 31, 2026, citing a security-focused approach that has killed over 500 Naxalites since 2024 and reduced their presence to just six districts.
Domestic politics have become dysfunctional. The Congress-led opposition submitted a no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, accusing him of partisan conduct and denying leader Rahul Gandhi speaking opportunities. In response, Nishikant Dubey, a Bharatiya Janata Party MP, moved to disqualify Mr Gandhi from Parliament entirely. The parliamentary crisis coincided with Narendra Modi’s symbolic relocation of the Prime Minister’s Office from British-era South Block to a new complex called “Seva Teerth,” which he described as “freedom from slavery” and a step toward self-reliant governance.
The Reserve Bank of India announced banking reforms, including a compensation scheme for digital fraud victims worth up to ₹25,000 or 85% of fraud value. The “no questions asked” scheme will cover even victims who shared one-time passwords, addressing vulnerabilities in India’s digital payment infrastructure that processes half the world’s real-time transactions.
Despite tensions with Washington, India continues pragmatic engagement with neighbours. Mr Modi was among the first leaders to congratulate Tarique Rahman after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s decisive electoral victory, signalling active engagement with Dhaka’s new administration after 20 years of BNP absence from power.
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- India-US trade deal triggers domestic political storm over farmer impact and energy sovereignty — Mr Modi’s interim trade deal with the US, featuring tariff reductions tied to commitments to stop Russian oil purchases, faces opposition criticism led by Mr Gandhi. Critics allege the deal betrays farmers and compromises energy sovereignty, while the government defends it as beneficial. (nytimes.com)
- Mr Modi visits Assam, inaugurates emergency landing facility and development projects worth ₹5,500 crore — The prime minister conducted a day-long visit to Assam, inaugurating an emergency landing facility in Dibrugarh, Kumar Bhaskar Varma Bridge, and launching various infrastructure projects ahead of assembly elections. (thehindu.com)
- National Security Adviser Ajit Doval holds security talks in Canada, signals reset in bilateral ties — Mr Doval visited Ottawa for security talks with Canadian counterparts, marking the most substantial high-level engagement between the two countries amid efforts to repair strained bilateral relations. (ndtv.com)
- Adani Group faces US investigation over alleged Iranian oil imports, enters nuclear sector — Adani Enterprises disclosed it is cooperating with a US Treasury investigation into alleged Iranian oil imports, while simultaneously announcing entry into India’s newly-opened nuclear power sector through subsidiary Adani Atomic Energy Limited. (thehindu.com)
- Indian Armed Forces conduct major military exercises and modernisation initiatives — Multiple defence activities including Exercise Khanjar with Kyrgyzstan, Indian Air Force (IAF) Exercise Vayu Shakti demonstrating precision strike capabilities, and various procurement and modernisation programs across the three services aimed at enhancing operational readiness. (organiser.org)
- BJP organisational activities and political positioning across multiple states — Various party activities including organisational changes with new president appointment, campaign preparations in different states, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief’s statements on the party’s success, and electoral preparations for upcoming polls. (thehindu.com)
- Congress party activities and internal dynamics across multiple issues — Various party activities including positioning on trade deals, organisational activities in different states, electoral strategies in West Bengal, and leadership statements on various national issues. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- International cooperation initiatives including Quad AI project and maritime cooperation — India participating in various international cooperation frameworks including a $6 million Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) artificial intelligence initiative for agriculture modernisation and hosting International Fleet Review with multiple nations including Quad partners. (freepressjournal.in)
Notes
Notes
India-US trade deal triggers domestic political firestorm over farmer impact and energy sovereignty
February 09-15, 2026
PM Modi inaugurates new PMO complex 'Seva Teerth', symbolic break from colonial legacy
February 13, 2026
Parliamentary crisis as Opposition moves no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla
February 09-13, 2026
PM Modi visits Assam, inaugurates emergency landing facility and development projects worth ₹5,500 crore
February 14, 2026
Home Minister Amit Shah launches major anti-Naxal push, promises complete eradication by March 31
February 08-15, 2026
EAM Jaishankar defends India's strategic autonomy at Munich Security Conference amid US pressure on Russian oil
February 10-15, 2026
Defence Acquisition Council approves record ₹3.60 lakh crore procurement including 114 Rafale jets
February 10-13, 2026
Adani Group faces US investigation over alleged Iranian oil imports, enters nuclear sector
February 09-14, 2026
Indian Armed Forces conduct major military exercises and modernization initiatives
February 08-15, 2026
International cooperation initiatives including Quad AI project and maritime cooperation
February 13-15, 2026
Other