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Regional Summary

Europe’s Fortress of Words Across western Europe this week, governments grew bolder in what they say while growing weaker in what they can do. From Berlin to Stockholm, leaders issued statements of strategic autonomy, moral clarity and resolve—yet coalition fractures, recruitment shortfalls, scandal and paralysis at home undercut each statement. The gap between rhetoric and capacity is becoming the central feature of European governance. Germany offers the clearest case. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, told the Munich Security Conference that American leadership in Europe may already be “lost” and called for the continent to become a pillar of NATO. Johann Wadephul, a foreign policy spokesman in Mr Merz’s party, accused Russia of murdering Alexei Navalny with a nerve agent and promised to take the evidence to international bodies. Yet the Bundeswehr, the instrument that would underwrite any such autonomy, cannot fill its own ranks. The Lithuania brigade—Germany’s first foreign deployment and the symbol of its new seriousness—has attracted volunteers for fewer than half its positions, with combat units managing just 10%. Support for Mr Merz has sunk to 22%. A leader whose voters do not back him and whose army cannot recruit is a poor candidate to replace American leadership. Britain’s problem runs along similar lines. Keir Starmer, the prime minister, sent the carrier HMS Prince of Wales to the Arctic and had his chancellor declare stronger European ties “the biggest prize” available. Abroad, British foreign policy appeared firm. At home, Mr Starmer lost his chief of staff and communications director in a week over the Mandelson-Epstein affair, faced a demand from Scottish Labour’s leader that he resign, and watched the monarchy drawn into the scandal as Charles was heckled in Lancashire. A revelation—that a think tank close to Mr Starmer had paid to investigate journalists’ personal backgrounds, including their religion—suggested an operation more paranoid than principled. The government that would project power into the High North cannot manage its own internal communications. France and Italy show the same contradiction. Emmanuel Macron, the president, launched Orion 26, France’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, deploying 12,500 troops and 25 ships across the Atlantic coast—yet France’s political energy is consumed by the question of whether Marine Le Pen will be allowed to run for president in 2027, a verdict the Paris appeals court has put off until July next year. Ms Le Pen remains the favourite if eligible, and Mr Macron’s response has been to place allies in key posts while he still can, a strategy the opposition bluntly calls “locking out.” In Rome, Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, skipped Munich for a second year running, preferring her Africa summit, and announced observer status on Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. But her coalition fractured when Roberto Vannacci, a general, quit the Lega to form his own party, taking MPs with him. Ms Meloni tightened her grip through naval-blockade laws and denunciations of protesters as “enemies of Italy,” making up in harsh authority for what she was losing in coalition unity. The Nordic countries, often held up as models of institutional health, were no exception. Sweden’s governing Tidö Alliance split over converting permanent residence permits to temporary ones, with the Sweden Democrats and their coalition partners pulling in opposite directions—even as Swedish Gripen fighters joined NATO’s new Arctic Sentry patrols. Thorbjørn Jagland, Norway’s former prime minister, was charged with gross corruption linked to Jeffrey Epstein, and the sitting foreign minister admitted breaking conflict-of-interest rules. Spain’s Popular Party accepted the necessity of governing with the far-right Vox, even as parliamentary debate descended into invective so bitter that the prime minister called the opposition leader “repugnant.” In each case, the state’s outward posture—NATO deployment, diplomatic firmness, democratic resolve—ran ahead of the domestic politics meant to support it. Europe’s democracies are not failing to act; they are acting abroad while fraying at home. Military exercises grow larger, diplomatic language grows tougher, and institutional commitments multiply—all while coalitions crack, scandals spread and public trust erodes. This is not hypocrisy so much as overextension: governments reaching for a geopolitical role their home support can no longer sustain. The fortress looks imposing from the outside. The question is whether anyone is watching the walls from within.

Country Summaries

FranceFrance

France knows when it will learn whether Marine Le Pen can run for president: July 7, 2026, when the Paris appeals court will rule on her eligibility for the 2027 race. This timing settles the biggest unknown in French politics. The court finished Ms Le Pen’s embezzlement trial this week and said it will decide whether she remains barred by the five-year ban prosecutors want or can run for president. If eligible, she would be the overwhelming favourite to win. Emmanuel Macron is placing allies in important jobs while he still can. He nominated Amélie de Montchalin, the budget minister, to head the Court of Auditors, France’s audit office. Opposition parties called this part of a “verrouillage” strategy to place allies in important posts before 2027. Critics questioned how Ms de Montchalin could audit budgets she herself designed. Political tensions are turning violent. In Lyon, a 23-year-old nationalist militant named Quentin Deranque died after being assaulted outside a conference featuring Rima Hassan, a hard-left politician. Right-wing politicians accused the far-left France Unbowed party and antifascist groups of involvement, drawing connections to a collective linked to Raphaël Arnault, a party deputy. The political class condemned the violence while partisan blame grew. While domestic crisis worsens, France continues showing strength abroad. It launched Orion 26, its largest military exercise since the Cold War, moving 12,500 troops, 25 ships including the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, 140 aircraft, and 1,200 drones across the Atlantic coast. The Armed Forces Ministry called the exercise “without precedent.” France also handled a routine diplomatic scandal with institutional efficiency: when a French diplomat, Fabrice Aidan, was shown to have exchanged many emails with Jeffrey Epstein and been investigated by the FBI in 2013, Jean-Noël Barrot, the foreign minister, said he was “appalled” and referred the case to prosecutors.
Marine Le Pen appeal trial concludes with verdict scheduled for July 7, determining her 2027 presidential eligibility
February 08-14, 2026
Emmanuel Macron appoints Amélie de Montchalin to head Cour des comptes amid accusations of 'verrouillage' strategy
February 09-14, 2026
François Villeroy de Galhau announces early departure from Banque de France, allowing Macron to name successor
February 09-12, 2026
French diplomat Fabrice Aidan cited in Epstein files, Quai d'Orsay launches investigation
February 10-11, 2026

GermanyGermany

Germany declared the end of American leadership in Europe this week, with Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, telling the Munich Security Conference that “the leadership claim of the U.S. is being challenged, perhaps already lost.” Mr Merz’s speech was the clearest statement yet of German independence, calling for Europe to become a “self-sustaining pillar” of NATO while explicitly rejecting Make America Great Again (MAGA) cultural politics and protectionism. He discussed European nuclear deterrence with France. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, escalated the confrontation, warning that American unilateral actions — including Greenland claims and excluding European allies from Ukraine negotiations — “damage our alliance and strengthen our adversaries.” It was the harshest German criticism of American behaviour since Donald Trump returned to power. But Berlin’s bid for independence reveals how much easier it is to declare autonomy than to achieve it. The Bundeswehr is struggling to recruit volunteers for its first permanent foreign deployment, with only 28-47% of required positions filled for the Lithuania brigade despite attractive financial incentives. Main combat forces report just 10% volunteer response rates. The defence ministry is scrambling with information campaigns and reducing minimum service from two years to one. Germany is also leading the diplomatic response to Russia. Johann Wadephul, the foreign minister, revealed that five European countries have evidence that Russia killed Alexei Navalny with Epibatidin nerve agent in prison, calling it “state-sponsored murder” and announcing plans to refer the case to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The new assertiveness abroad comes as politics at home face a deepening crisis. A growing nepotism scandal threatens the Alternative for Germany’s anti-establishment credibility just as the party could win power in Saxony-Anhalt. Multiple AfD officials employed family members of party colleagues in well-paid positions, with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund’s father earning nearly €100,000 annually in a Bundestag member’s office. Allegations include €13.8 million losses at the NIUS media outlet and “secret societies” within the party. Mr Merz called for legal regulation to prevent “cronyism and nepotism.” The governing coalition’s troubles persist despite the chancellor’s foreign policy successes. Coalition approval fell to 22%, its lowest yet, with only 44% of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) voters and 34% of Social Democratic Party (SPD) voters satisfied with government performance. Mr Merz moved up slightly in personal rankings, from 19th to 17th place, but the AfD and CDU/CSU remain tied at approximately 25% in federal polling.
Chancellor Merz delivers keynote speech at Munich Security Conference calling for stronger, more independent Europe
February 13-15, 2026
AfD faces nepotism scandal with family members employed by party colleagues
February 08-15, 2026

United KingdomUnited Kingdom

Keir Starmer’s premiership is in crisis as the Mandelson-Epstein affair forces out his closest aides and divides his party. Morgan McSweeney, Mr Starmer’s chief of staff, and Tim Allan, his communications director, both resigned this week over the prime minister’s decision to appoint Peter Mandelson despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. The rebellion spread when Anas Sarwar, who leads Scottish Labour, called for Mr Starmer to quit—the most senior Labour figure to demand his resignation. Cabinet ministers rallied behind him and Mr Starmer told the Parliamentary Labour Party he was “not prepared to walk away from my mandate,” but his inner circle has been severely damaged. The crisis has spread to the monarchy. King Charles made his first public statement on the latest Epstein revelations, expressing “profound concern” and promising Buckingham Palace would help police investigations. The King forced Prince Andrew to leave Royal Lodge and was himself heckled during a visit to Clitheroe—an unusual break with protocol that shows the scandal is undermining respect for British institutions. A third problem emerged when Labour Together, the think tank that helped Mr Starmer win the party leadership, was revealed to have paid £30,000 to investigate Sunday Times journalists’ personal backgrounds, including their religious affiliations. The surveillance operation puts more pressure on Josh Simons, the cabinet minister who commissioned the report, and raises fresh questions about how Labour’s leadership handles press scrutiny. Yet while the government struggles at home, Britain’s foreign policy continues. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, argued that stronger ties with Europe were “the biggest prize” for Britain and said the UK would consider following EU rules even without reciprocal deals—prompting Conservative accusations of Brexit betrayal but showing clear strategic direction. Mr Starmer announced at the Munich Security Conference that Britain would deploy the HMS Prince of Wales carrier strike group to the Arctic as part of NATO’s new mission to counter Russian and Chinese threats. Britain’s diplomacy, it seems, can function even while the government directing it faces its deepest crisis.

ItalyItaly

Italy’s governing coalition cracked this week when Roberto Vannacci, a general, broke from the Lega to form his own party, taking MPs with him and creating the first fracture in Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing alliance. Mr Vannacci registered the statute for his new party, “Futuro Nazionale”, built around an anti-gender, anti-woke, anti-immigration platform that mirrors much of the Lega’s appeal. Several MPs followed him, prompting Matteo Salvini, the Lega leader, to propose a constitutional reform banning lawmakers from switching parties mid-term — a response that reveals how damaging the split could prove. The defection removes one of the Lega’s key electoral assets and threatens to fragment the populist right vote ahead of future elections. Even as her coalition splintered, Ms Meloni pursued Italy’s established strategy of hedging between alliances while deepening specific commitments. She chose to attend the Italy-Africa Summit in Addis Ababa rather than the Munich Security Conference, marking the second straight year she has skipped the European gathering. Instead, she promoted her Piano Mattei for Italian-African cooperation and offered debt suspension schemes for climate-affected countries. Ms Meloni also announced that Italy would likely join Donald Trump’s Board of Peace as an observer, with Antonio Tajani, the foreign minister, set to attend the February 19 meeting in Washington focused on Gaza reconstruction. The government’s tightening of security continued on multiple fronts. Ms Meloni condemned anti-Olympics protesters and railway saboteurs as “enemies of Italy and Italians” after demonstrations and infrastructure attacks during the Olympic Games launch. Her cabinet also approved laws authorising naval blockades to halt migrant boats during periods of “extreme pressure”, with fines up to €50,000 and vessel confiscation for violations. The measures reflect a pattern of expanding executive powers and toughening rhetoric against dissent.
President Mattarella attends Olympics, meets athletes and watches Brignone's gold medal win
February 11-12, 2026
Meloni government approves naval blockade powers against migrants and new security package
February 11-12, 2026

SpainSpain

Spain’s main opposition party has accepted coalition with the far-right as a requirement for future governance. Following regional elections in Aragón where the Popular Party won but lost seats while Vox doubled its representation, Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the Popular Party accepted the need to negotiate with Santiago Abascal of Vox, while setting constitutional limits on such arrangements. The party leadership has normalised what were once unthinkable coalitions with the far-right as the new reality of Spanish politics. This marks a shift from treating Vox as a protest party to accepting it as an essential governing partner. The governing coalition faces its own crisis. Internal tensions within Sumar have erupted as Antonio Maíllo of Izquierda Unida called for leadership renewal beyond Yolanda Díaz, the deputy prime minister, ahead of a new alliance launch. The movement stems from criticism of Ms Díaz’s poor electoral performance and limited involvement in regional campaigns, threatening the stability of Pedro Sánchez’s parliamentary support. These tensions have poisoned parliamentary discourse. A recent session devolved into personal attacks, with Mr Feijóo and Mr Abascal predicting that Mr Sánchez will “end up in the dock” over his handling of a train accident, while the prime minister called Mr Feijóo “repugnant” and a “shameless person.” The exchange marks an escalation from policy disagreement to personal attacks that challenge democratic norms. Spain continues adapting to NATO restructuring. The United States announced NATO 3.0 based on “partnership not dependence,” with European countries taking control of key operational centres. Margarita Robles, the defence minister, defended Spain’s NATO commitments amid continued pressure over defence spending targets. Meanwhile, a Barcelona court formally charged Paz Esteban, former head of the National Intelligence Centre, and two former Civil Guard directors over Pegasus espionage targeting Catalan independence figures between 2018 and 2020.
PP-Vox coalition talks intensify after Aragón election results show continued mutual dependence
February 08-13, 2026
Parliamentary confrontation over Adamuz train accident as Feijóo and Abascal attack Sánchez
February 11, 2026
Left-wing coalition crisis as Yolanda Díaz's leadership questioned ahead of new alliance launch
February 08-15, 2026
Spanish banking sector reports strong performance amid rising cybersecurity concerns
February 08-15, 2026

NorwayNorway

Thorbjørn Jagland, Norway’s former prime minister, has been charged with gross corruption after revelations in the Epstein documents. The charges are an extraordinary escalation in a scandal that has already forced one ambassador to resign. Økokrim, Norway’s financial crime unit, moved against Mr Jagland after documents emerged linking him to Jeffrey Epstein’s network. Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister, gave an interview calling the situation the “brutal reality” of how rich people buy political influence. Parliament agreed to establish an independent investigation commission. Espen Barth Eide, the foreign minister, admitted breaking conflict-of-interest rules when his son received an internship at the Norwegian embassy in Paris. Mr Støre called the violation “serious” but kept his foreign minister in post. The son withdrew from the position. Opposition parties formed majorities to defeat the government on private schools and hospital rehabilitation tenders, handing Mr Støre significant policy defeats. At the Munich Security Conference, Mr Støre described the Trump administration as a “highly demanding development” creating “uncertainty,” while meeting Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, to maintain operational ties. He criticised US “rhetorical attacks on Europe” and emphasised Nordic cooperation as a “hedging strategy.” Despite the diplomatic friction, security cooperation deepens. NATO announced a new Arctic Sentry mission with Norwegian participation, including the country’s Cold Response exercises, as the alliance adapts to Donald Trump’s pressure over Greenland.

SwedenSweden

Sweden’s governing coalition cracked this week for the first time since taking power in 2022, with migration policy driving a wedge between partners and forcing Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, to miss his own press conference. The split came over proposals to convert permanent residence permits to temporary ones. Mr Åkesson’s Sweden Democrats want to push ahead while the other Tidö Alliance parties resist, creating the sharpest disagreement yet in the arrangement that has governed since the right bloc’s election victory. Deportation cases that caused public outcry made the tensions worse, including an eight-month-old baby set for removal to Iran. Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, initially refused calls for a moratorium on such cases, while Mr Åkesson opened the door to finding solutions, revealing how coalition partners respond differently to putting tough migration policies into practice. The political stress has prompted Mr Kristersson to launch a communication campaign ahead of September 2026 elections. He started a new podcast called “Call the Prime Minister” where he takes questions from callers, and hosted female influencers at the government palace. Observers praised the podcast as an effective tool, and the broader outreach represents a clear attempt to win back female voters where the right bloc has lost ground. Even as domestic politics fracture, Sweden’s NATO integration continues. The country deployed JAS 39 Gripen fighters to the alliance’s new Arctic Sentry operation, patrolling around Greenland and Iceland. Pål Jonson, the defence minister, emphasised that this demonstrates Sweden as “a solidary and active ally taking responsibility for common security.” Separately, Maria Malmer Stenergard, the foreign minister, announced that Sweden and four other countries have evidence proving Russia poisoned opposition leader Aleksei Navalny with epibatidin, a rare poison from Ecuadorian frogs. The findings were presented to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
Sweden maintains lower position in global corruption index
February 10, 2026