Regional Summary
The Broker’s Dilemma The Iran war shows that middle powers gain leverage not by fighting but by making themselves useful—yet the price of usefulness keeps rising. Governments from the Gulf to South Asia are scrambling to convert a crisis they did not start into influence they badly want, only to find that diplomatic ambition collides with domestic fragility. The gap between what countries promise abroad and what they can sustain at home widens. Saudi Arabia illustrates the contradiction. Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, is urging Washington to intensify strikes on Iran, calling the campaign a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East. Yet the war he wants enlarged is already dismantling his grandest domestic project. NEOM, the centrepiece of Vision 2030, cancelled more than $5bn in construction contracts this week. Aramco rerouted crude shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz and its chief executive vanished from international conferences. A crown prince lobbying for wider conflict and signing a drone-defence pact with Ukraine—whose battlefield expertise he needs precisely because Iranian missiles keep hitting his kingdom—is not a strategist in command of events. His two ambitions, regional dominance and economic transformation, now work against each other. Turkey has extracted the most from the crisis most cheaply. Donald Trump called Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, “fantastic” for staying out of the fighting, while Iran’s president thanked him in Turkish for condemning Israeli strikes. Ankara has become the only capital trusted by both Washington and Tehran to relay messages. But neutrality is not free. The Central Bank sold 60 tons of gold in a fortnight to defend the lira against volatility from the war. At home Mr Erdoğan’s government prosecuted Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, alongside hundreds of co-defendants, while arresting opposition mayors across six provinces. The diplomatic prestige Turkey earns abroad rests on a political system that is destroying democracy at home. Pakistan’s bid is the most audacious and the most precarious. Field Marshal Asim Munir telephoned Mr Trump to pitch Islamabad as a venue for peace talks, and Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, followed up with Gulf leaders to cement the offer. The gamble is that brokering a deal would transform Pakistan from a country always seeking IMF bailouts into one everyone needs for talks. Yet Field Marshal Munir undermined the effort immediately by telling Shia clerics who “love Iran so much” to emigrate there—a remark that inflamed sectarian fury days after at least 35 people died in the suppression of Shia protests. A country that cannot manage its own sectarian divisions is unlikely to be trusted to manage a negotiation between the powers that exploit them. Military operations against Afghanistan resumed after an Eid pause, a reminder that Pakistan’s borders are no less volatile than its diplomacy is ambitious. India, by contrast, has chosen the opposite strategy: quiet self-sufficiency dressed up as strategic autonomy. Narendra Modi, the prime minister, spoke to Mr Trump about Hormuz security, shipped 38,000 tonnes of petroleum to Sri Lanka and approved $25bn in defence deals—all without committing to any side. His foreign minister’s dismissal of Pakistan as a mere “broker nation” was less a diplomatic statement than a declaration that India considers mediation beneath it. The posture works so long as oil keeps flowing from 41 different suppliers, but it also means India accumulates no diplomatic capital from the crisis, only hardware. The countries trying hardest to shape the conflict are the ones most destabilised by it. Saudi Arabia wants escalation but bleeds investment; Turkey wants mediation but burns reserves and prosecutes opponents; Pakistan wants relevance but fans the sectarian fires the war ignites. Brokering influence from someone else’s war is seductive precisely because it appears cheap—until the invoice arrives at home.Country Summaries
Saudi Arabia
Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, is pushing Donald Trump to hit Iran harder. He told the American president to “ramp up attacks on Iran” and called the US-Israeli campaign a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to Saudi intelligence sources. The kingdom is “not just calling for the military campaign to be continued, but to be intensified.” Mr Trump confirmed the lobbying, saying “Yeah, he’s a warrior. He’s fighting with us.”
But the war the crown prince wants escalated is already hurting his own economy. NEOM, the flagship project of his Vision 2030 plan, canceled over $5 billion in construction contracts this week, including Italian contractor Webuild’s dam project and Malaysian firm Eversendai’s steel works for the Trojena ski village. The cancellations follow what MEED, a Middle East business publication, called “a review of Neom last year, as Saudi Arabia reassesses priorities under its Vision 2030 programme.”
The kingdom’s oil business is suffering too. Saudi Aramco cut crude shipments to Asian markets for the second straight month because Iranian attacks have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. The company rerouted supplies through the Red Sea port of Yanbu while the chief executive canceled appearances at energy conferences.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia signed a defense cooperation agreement with Ukraine during Volodymyr Zelensky’s Gulf visit. The Ukrainian president’s deal focuses on sharing Ukraine’s drone warfare expertise to help defend against Iranian attacks. Iranian forces have fired over 740 drones and 54 ballistic missiles at the kingdom since late February, most of which Saudi defenses have intercepted.
Despite the external pressure, the crown prince’s grip on power at home remains firm. The government continued routine activities including cultural events, sports competitions, and diplomatic protocol, showing that the state functions normally even as the kingdom lobbies for a bigger war next door.
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- Trump mocks Mohammed bin Salman while reports reveal Saudi Crown Prince lobbying for Iran war escalation — Multiple outlets reported that Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, has been privately urging Mr Trump to continue the Iran war, calling it a ‘historic opportunity.’ This coincided with Mr Trump making crude remarks about the crown prince ‘kissing my ass’ at a Saudi investment forum in Miami, creating diplomatic awkwardness. (nytimes.com)
- Saudi Arabia intercepts hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles amid regional conflict — Saudi defense forces intercepted over 740 drones and 54 ballistic missiles since late February as Iran targets Gulf countries in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes. The kingdom reported daily interceptions of Iranian projectiles targeting Riyadh and eastern regions. (arabnews.com)
- NEOM megaproject cancels billions in contracts as Saudi Arabia scales back Vision 2030 plans — Saudi Arabia’s NEOM development terminated multiple construction contracts worth over $5 billion, including Italian contractor Webuild’s dam project and Malaysian firm Eversendai’s steel works for the Trojena ski village. The cancellations signal a broader scaling back of the megaproject amid cost pressures. (bloomberg.com)
- Ukraine signs defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states — Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, signed defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar during an unannounced Gulf tour. The deals focus on sharing Ukraine’s drone warfare expertise to help Gulf nations defend against Iranian attacks. (reuters.com)
- Saudi Public Investment Fund announces new five-year strategy rollout — Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), announced the sovereign wealth fund will unveil its new 2026-2030 strategy within weeks, focusing on attracting more third-party capital and strengthening Saudi Arabia’s position amid regional tensions. The fund has grown to over $1 trillion in assets. (bloomberg.com)
- Saudi Foreign Minister conducts diplomatic outreach amid regional crisis — Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister, participated in Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers meetings in France, visited Pakistan for four-nation talks on the Iran conflict, and held bilateral meetings with counterparts from India, South Africa, and other nations as Saudi Arabia coordinates diplomatic responses to regional tensions. (arabnews.com)
- King Salman and Crown Prince send condolences and congratulations in diplomatic outreach — King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, sent condolence cables to Algeria on the death of former president Liamine Zéroual, to Oman over flood victims, and congratulatory messages to Pakistan’s National Day. The routine diplomatic contacts continued despite regional tensions. (arabnews.com)
Notes
Notes
Trump mocks MBS while reports reveal Saudi Crown Prince lobbying for Iran war escalation
March 24–28, 2026
Saudi Arabia intercepts hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles amid regional conflict
March 25–29, 2026
Saudi Aramco cuts oil supply to Asia as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force route changes
March 23–26, 2026
NEOM megaproject cancels billions in contracts as Saudi Arabia scales back Vision 2030 plans
March 24–26, 2026
King Salman and Crown Prince send condolences and congratulations in diplomatic outreach
March 23–29, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
Iranian attacks on the UAE have escalated into economic warfare, with missiles and drones now targeting industrial facilities after more than 2,400 projectiles.
UAE air defences intercepted 16 ballistic missiles and 42 drones on March 29 alone, bringing intercepts to 414 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,914 drones since February 28. The attacks have killed 11 people including soldiers and foreign civilians, with Iran now hitting industrial sites including Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah plant.
The UAE has responded economically. The Central Bank approved a package worth over 1 trillion dirhams to strengthen banks during the attacks, including easier access to cash and relief on capital ratios. Banks hold 920 billion dirhams in liquidity with foreign exchange reserves exceeding 1 trillion dirhams.
Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC’s chief executive, warned that blocking the Strait of Hormuz amounts to “economic terrorism” as the company cut LNG production due to shipping disruptions. Mr Al Jaber spoke by video at the CERAWeek conference and travelled to Washington for meetings.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE president, met Volodymyr Zelensky in Abu Dhabi as part of the Ukrainian president’s Gulf tour to discuss security and cooperation. Mr Zelensky had signed air defence agreements with Qatar during the same tour, part of Gulf coordination against Iranian drone threats.
The Cabinet, chaired by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, praised the “heroic defence spirit” of the Armed Forces while approving the National Space Strategy 2031 and over 120 international agreements.
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- Mubadala exits CoolIT Systems in $4.75 billion deal with 15x return — Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company is selling its minority stake in data centre cooling company CoolIT Systems to Ecolab in a $4.75 billion deal led by KKR. The transaction gives KKR a 15x return and shows the growing demand for AI-driven data centre cooling solutions. (thenationalnews.com)
- Mubadala Energy secures new Indonesia gas exploration block in Andaman Sea — Indonesia awarded Mubadala Energy the Southwest Andaman exploration block under a Production Sharing Contract, holding 100% interest. This adds to the company’s portfolio in the Andaman Sea basin, where it has made previous discoveries and is becoming a leading explorer in the region. (arabianbusiness.com)
- ADNOC and OMV announce leadership for Borouge Group International polyolefins merger — ADNOC and Austria’s OMV appointed Roger Kearns as CEO and Sultan Al Jaber as chairman of Borouge Group International, a new global polyolefins company created by merging their businesses. The $60 billion platform will combine Borouge, Borealis, and NOVA Chemicals. (reuters.com)
- UAE Cabinet praises Armed Forces defence spirit, approves National Space Strategy 2031 — The UAE Cabinet, chaired by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, praised the heroic defence spirit of the UAE Armed Forces and approved the National Space Strategy 2031. The Cabinet also approved over 120 international agreements and new health and nutrition strategies. (news.webindia123.com)
Notes
Notes
ADNOC adjusts operations amid Strait of Hormuz disruption, CEO calls blockade 'economic terrorism'
March 23–26, 2026
UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed holds talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Abu Dhabi
March 28, 2026
ADNOC and OMV announce leadership for Borouge Group International polyolefins merger
March 24–26, 2026
UAE Cabinet praises Armed Forces defense spirit, approves National Space Strategy 2031
March 29–30, 2026
Other
Turkey
Donald Trump called Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a “fantastic leader” for keeping Turkey out of the Iran war, giving Turkey the American recognition it has sought for its broker role.
Mr Trump thanked Turkey for staying neutral, calling the country “really wonderful” and saying it provided “tremendous support” by remaining outside the fighting. The praise came as Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, announced that US-Iran negotiations had begun, with Turkey helping to facilitate the talks. Mr Fidan said Americans coordinate with Turkey, which then informs the Iranians, making Ankara a key mediator.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, also expressed gratitude. Mr Pezeshkian issued a message in Turkish thanking Mr Erdoğan for condemning Israeli attacks on Iran and praising Turkey’s “historical solidarity with the Islamic community.” Both Washington and Tehran now recognise Turkey as a power broker.
Yet this role carries economic costs. Turkey’s Central Bank sold roughly 60 tons of gold worth $8 billion during the first two weeks of the Iran war to defend the lira against regional volatility. Even as he managed regional diplomacy, Mr Erdoğan met with BlackRock’s Laurence Fink to discuss investment opportunities.
At home, the government’s persecution of opposition figures continued. Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Istanbul mayor, appeared for a third week at his corruption trial alongside more than 400 other defendants. He condemned the prosecution’s evidence as “lies” and “garbage.” Several Republican People’s Party (CHP) mayors were also arrested in corruption operations across multiple cities, affecting six provinces and over 20 district municipalities. The party calls the operations political attacks on opposition-controlled areas.
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- Nationalist Movement Party Deputy Leader İzzet Ulvi Yönter resigns, Bahçeli cites academic focus — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Deputy Leader İzzet Ulvi Yönter resigned from his party position. Party leader Devlet Bahçeli explained that Yönter left to focus on his academic career and denied any internal conflicts or grievances within the party. (bbc.com)
- Bahçeli calls for ‘Terrorism-free Turkey’, warns against regional war escalation — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli emphasized the ‘Terrorism-free Turkey’ process and warned that the Iran war could spread to a larger regional conflict. He called for regime change in Israel rather than Iran and stressed the need for legal frameworks for the peace process. (posta.com.tr)
- Erdoğan hosts Bosnian presidency chair Denis Becirovic in Istanbul — Mr Erdoğan received Bosnian Presidency Council Chairman Denis Becirovic with an official ceremony at Dolmabahçe Palace. The meeting focused on bilateral relations and regional stability in the Balkans. (dunya.com)
- Justice and Development Party addresses traffic fine complaints following citizen backlash — Mr Erdoğan instructed officials to review new traffic fines after widespread citizen complaints reached the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party discussed the issue in strategy meetings and cabinet sessions, with some members questioning the high penalty amounts. (sozcu.com.tr)
- Former Justice and Development Party MP Bayram Ali Bayramoğlu arrested in financial crimes probe — Former Independent Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (MÜSİAD) president and Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentarian Bayram Ali Bayramoğlu was arrested by Istanbul prosecutors as part of an investigation into unauthorised capital market activities. The probe involves allegations related to forex market operations. (sozcu.com.tr)
- Actor Uraz Kaygılaroğlu reveals details of surprise call from Nationalist Movement Party leader Bahçeli — Actor Uraz Kaygılaroğlu, who plays ‘Bozo’ in the Yeraltı TV series, revealed details of a surprise phone call from Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli. Mr Bahçeli praised the actor for his role and the series’ anti-drug message, calling him ‘a great Gray Wolf.’ (sozcu.com.tr)
Notes
Notes
Other
India
Narendra Modi this week became India’s longest-serving elected head of government, passing 8,931 days in office. His handling of the Iran crisis with Donald Trump shows how India refuses to pick sides.
Even as Mr Modi reached this milestone, Amit Shah, the home minister, launched election campaigns in several states. He promised to deport “all infiltrators from Assam” and fielded the mother of a rape victim in West Bengal, showing how the BJP combines Hindu nationalist messaging with emotional appeals.
This dominance helped Modi handle the Iran crisis. Mr Modi and Mr Trump spoke by phone about the war and Strait of Hormuz security, with Mr Trump praising Mr Modi as someone who “gets things done.” India also supplied 38,000 tonnes of petroleum to Sri Lanka to ease fuel shortages from the conflict.
India hit back at Pakistan’s mediation efforts. S. Jaishankar, the external affairs minister, called Pakistan a broker nation for its role in US-Iran talks, drawing sharp criticism from Islamabad. The attack showed India prefers to deal directly rather than through middlemen.
The government kept building up its military, approving $25 billion in defence purchases including Russian S-400 missile systems and strike drones. This continues the weapons upgrade that began after last year’s confrontation with Pakistan.
The Reserve Bank released its Payments Vision 2028, proposing electronic cheques and tighter control of digital platforms. Mr Modi separately warned Parliament that the West Asia conflict could have lasting effects on energy supplies, though he said India imports from 41 countries and has adequate reserves.
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- Amit Shah campaigns across states, promises deportations and releases BJP manifestos — Amit Shah, the home minister, campaigned heavily in Assam, West Bengal, and other states, promising to deport all infiltrators from Assam and releasing BJP reports attacking opposition governments. He also introduced new police reform bills. (ndtv.com)
- Balendra Shah sworn in as Nepal’s youngest prime minister, India extends congratulations — Former rapper and Kathmandu mayor Balendra ‘Balen’ Shah, 35, was sworn in as Nepal’s youngest prime minister after his party won 182 seats. Mr Modi and S. Jaishankar, the external affairs minister, congratulated him and expressed hope for stronger India-Nepal ties. (ndtv.com)
- BJP releases candidate lists and manifestos for assembly elections across multiple states — The BJP announced candidates for West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and other state elections. Key moves include fielding the RG Kar victim’s mother from Panihati and releasing reports against opposition governments. The party is targeting key constituencies across states. (hindustantimes.com)
- All-party meeting on West Asia crisis sees opposition criticism over PM’s absence — Amit Shah, the home minister, chaired an all-party meeting to brief leaders on the West Asia situation. Opposition parties criticised Mr Modi’s absence from the meeting and questioned the delayed response to the crisis. (hindustantimes.com)
- India-UK defence cooperation talks focus on intelligence sharing and military technology — Anil Chauhan, the chief of defence staff, and Britain’s chief of air staff held meetings in New Delhi to advance bilateral defence cooperation. Discussions covered intelligence collaboration, interoperability, and addressing maritime and aerospace security challenges. (idrw.org)
Notes
Notes
Modi-Trump phone call on Iran war sparks controversy over Elon Musk's reported participation
March 24–29, 2026
Modi addresses Parliament on West Asia conflict, warns of long-term economic impact on India
March 24–29, 2026
Jaishankar calls Pakistan a 'dalal nation', sparking diplomatic row over mediation role
March 25–26, 2026
Amit Shah campaigns across states, promises infiltrator deportation and releases BJP manifestos
March 24–29, 2026
India approves \$25 billion military procurement including S-400 systems and strike aircraft
March 26–29, 2026
RBI unveils Payments Vision 2028 with electronic cheques and new digital payment rules
March 23–29, 2026
Balendra Shah sworn in as Nepal's youngest prime minister, India extends congratulations
March 27, 2026
BJP releases candidate lists and manifestos for assembly elections across multiple states
March 23–29, 2026
Modi achieves milestone as India's longest-serving head of government at 8,931 days
March 23–26, 2026
India-UK defense cooperation talks focus on intelligence sharing and military technology
March 25–26, 2026
Other
Pakistan
Pakistan has offered to mediate between America and Iran, with Field Marshal Asim Munir calling Donald Trump to pitch Islamabad as a place for peace talks. Pakistan is trying to use the Iran war to its advantage, drawing on Field Marshal Munir’s relationship with the American president to make Pakistan indispensable rather than merely balanced between competing powers.
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, offered to host talks in Islamabad and held calls with Kuwait’s crown prince about Pakistan’s mediation efforts. The move marks a shift from Pakistan’s usual hedging—trying to avoid picking sides—to positioning itself as a broker in the conflict.
Yet even as Pakistan reaches for diplomatic influence, Field Marshal Munir is creating problems at home. During a meeting with Shia clerics in Rawalpindi, he told those who “love Iran so much” to “go to Iran.” The remarks caused anger from Shia religious leaders, who accused the military of serving American and Israeli interests. The controversy came after at least 35 people died when security forces suppressed Shia protests following Ayatollah Khamenei’s killing.
The sectarian tensions add to Pakistan’s domestic pressures at a time when the government is trying to show unity. Asif Ali Zardari, the president, chaired a crisis meeting with Mr Sharif, Field Marshal Munir and cabinet members to set policy on the Iran war. The meeting stressed consensus and cooperation while reviewing fuel problems and security risks.
Meanwhile, Pakistan resumed military operations against Afghanistan after a brief pause for Eid al-Fitr, ending hopes for a lasting ceasefire in what sources describe as the worst fighting in years between the neighbours. The Taliban claimed over 400 casualties from Pakistani airstrikes, though Pakistan rejected these figures and said it was targeting military installations and terrorist infrastructure.
The State Bank of Pakistan opened digital accounts to all non-residents, not just the diaspora, and cancelled licences for two exchange companies for breaking rules. Government sources also indicate fuel rationing measures are being considered amid supply problems from the Iran war.
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- Pakistan positions itself as key mediator in US-Iran conflict as Army Chief builds Trump ties — Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief, spoke with President Trump about mediating between the US and Iran, with Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, offering to host peace talks in Islamabad. The diplomatic push uses Mr Munir’s relationship with Mr Trump and Pakistan’s ties to both sides. (nytimes.com)
- Imran Khan’s sons speak out about prison conditions as health concerns mount — Imran Khan’s sons revealed details of their father’s deteriorating eyesight and prison conditions in rare phone calls, while addressing the UN Human Rights Council about alleged persecution. International cricket captains have also written to Mr Sharif demanding humane treatment. (theguardian.com)
- PTI legal and political activities continue amid party challenges — Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf faced various legal proceedings with courts extending interim bail for leaders in protest-related cases, while the party dropped plans for an ‘Imran Khan Release Force’ and continued political activities across provinces. (geo.tv)
- Reports emerge about former Army Chief Bajwa’s health condition — Unverified reports circulated claiming former Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa is in critical condition after suffering complications from a head injury sustained in a fall at his residence in February. Official sources have not confirmed these reports. (firstpost.com)
Notes
Notes
Pakistan positions itself as key mediator in US-Iran conflict as Army Chief builds Trump ties
March 24–29, 2026
Army Chief Munir sparks sectarian controversy with 'go to Iran' remarks to Shia clerics
March 23–25, 2026
Other