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Regional Summary

When the Atlantic Frays Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s president, declared this week that the Iran war is “illegal under international law” — the most explicit rupture with Washington since the Federal Republic’s founding. His words follow from the position staked out by Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, and Boris Pistorius, the defence minister: Germany will not be drawn into a conflict it was never consulted about. The result at home is a government that can afford bold moves because it has chosen defiance abroad. A 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund, a 17% jump in federal investment, a proposed overhaul of the tax code — these are the moves of leaders who know that standing up to Mr Trump plays well with voters, as the CDU’s breakthrough in Rheinland-Pfalz confirms. But the AfD’s 19.5% in that same election, its best western result to date, suggests that once nationalist sentiment is stirred, it does not flow in only one direction. Britain’s predicament is less dignified. Mr Trump’s mockery of Keir Starmer, the prime minister, and dismissal of the Royal Navy’s carriers as “toys” is cruel partly because it is not entirely wrong: the defence secretary’s inability to say how many warships the navy has made the insult land harder. Yet the humiliation is useful to Mr Starmer, whose approval ratings have risen as voters rally against American bullying. The deeper damage is economic. Oil and gas prices have surged by the most since Russia’s 2022 invasion, the Bank of England is holding rates at 3.75% with hikes now expected, and Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has been forced to ration energy support. A war Britain refused to join is nonetheless taxing its economy as if it had. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National seized 74 town halls — its biggest local gains in modern history — while the left alliance tore itself apart, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon savaging his own former allies. Ms Le Pen’s trip to Budapest to back Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, in vetoing a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine shows the deeper danger: the transatlantic rupture does not just embolden the far right at home, it gives it a foreign-policy programme. In Rome, Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, watched voters reject her constitutional referendum by a comfortable margin, a rebuke sharpened by coalition infighting within Forza Italia. Even her government’s one unifying moment — protesting Israel’s blocking of Palm Sunday Mass in Jerusalem — showed how readily European leaders now reach for gestures of independence from Washington. The Nordic countries are feeling the same strain. Norway announced its largest defence increase in decades — 115 billion kroner through 2036 — only to see its coalition crack when parliament voted to cut fuel taxes against the government’s wishes, blowing a 6.7-billion-kroner hole in the budget. Sweden’s Liberals formally accepted the Sweden Democrats as a governing partner, completing that party’s journey from pariah to power, while Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, picked a public fight with Hungary over leaked EU discussions with Russia. Even Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, clinging to his “No to war” stance in congress, reshuffled his cabinet to elevate technocrats over politicians — a tacit admission that the political class is not trusted to manage the crisis. The Bank of Spain warned that a prolonged Iran conflict could nearly triple inflation and cut growth by a third of a percentage point. American coercion is not producing compliance; it is accelerating Europe’s break-up. Governments that defy Washington win popularity at home but face economic blowback they cannot control. Far-right parties exploit the disorder to present themselves as the only honest brokers of sovereignty. And defence spending, long deferred, is being ramped up in a hurry that guarantees waste and shortages — Sweden’s 134 cold-weather injuries in two months of Arctic training show the problem. Europe is not uniting against America so much as fragmenting in its shadow, each country improvising its own balance of defiance and dependence. That is not an alliance in crisis. It is an alliance discovering it may no longer be one.

Country Summaries


Germany flag Germany

Donald Trump attacked Friedrich Merz for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw NATO support from Germany. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the president, hit back by declaring the Iran war “illegal under international law”—the most explicit break with American leadership since the Federal Republic was founded. The confrontation started when Mr Merz criticised Mr Trump’s Iran policy as “massive escalation.” Mr Trump then called out the chancellor for Germany’s refusal to help. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, condemned the lack of American consultations and said Germany had no clear strategy or exit plan. He emphasised “this is not our war” during an Asia-Pacific tour where he signed defence deals with Japan, Singapore and Australia. Even as it clashes with Washington, Germany is pushing major domestic reforms. Lars Klingbeil, the finance minister, announced plans to scrap joint taxation for married couples, raise taxes on high earners and cut income tax for 95% of workers. Mr Merz did not rule out raising VAT from 19% to 21%, though business groups opposed the idea. The government increased federal investment by 17% to 87 billion euros in 2025, with plans to reach 120 billion euros next year through a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund. The reforms follow the CDU’s win in Rheinland-Pfalz with 31% of the vote, ending 35 years of SPD rule. But the AfD won its best western German result with 19.5%, becoming the strongest party among 18-44 year-olds and winning 29% of workers. The far-right breakthrough in traditionally moderate western regions shows expansion beyond eastern strongholds. Mr Merz caused fresh controversy by claiming “a significant portion” of Germany’s violence comes from migrant groups during a Bundestag debate on violence against women. The SPD faces growing pressure over western election losses, with talk of Mr Pistorius replacing the party’s co-chairs. The Bundeswehr continues to struggle with personnel shortages and equipment problems despite increased funding. Someone leaked a classified procurement document, forcing an officer’s suspension. Germany established a National Security Council as a cabinet committee to coordinate security policy across nine ministries.

Italy flag Italy

Voters rejected Italy’s constitutional referendum on judicial reform this week, with 53.7% voting No. Giorgia Meloni pushed out her tourism minister and other officials. The defeat wiped out a key part of the government’s plan to reshape Italy’s institutions. The referendum shows Italy’s constitutional safeguards work against executive overreach. Coalition troubles also loom — in Forza Italia, Marina Berlusconi challenges Antonio Tajani’s leadership after 14 senators forced out the party’s Senate group leader. Even as it struggles at home, Italy protested when Israeli authorities blocked Cardinal Pizzaballa from celebrating Palm Sunday Mass in Jerusalem. Mr Tajani, the foreign minister, summoned the Israeli ambassador and Ms Meloni called it “an offence to believers.”
Italy reaches NATO 2% defense spending target through expanded budget classifications
March 26–27, 2026
Opposition calls for Meloni to address Parliament following referendum defeat
March 26–28, 2026

France flag France

The far-right won its biggest local victory in modern French history this week, taking control of 74 town halls, up from 22, and winning seats in 84 départements. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella called the result a historic breakthrough for the Rassemblement National, but the party failed to capture Marseille, Toulon, and Nîmes. Urban France still rejects the far-right. The far-right gains came as the left alliance fractured. Jean-Luc Mélenchon attacked Olivier Faure, the Socialist leader, and Marine Tondelier, the Green leader, calling them “venomous” and “harmful impostors” after mixed municipal results. He also targeted François Ruffin and former ally Raquel Garrido, widening splits ahead of the 2027 presidential race. Ms Le Pen travelled to Budapest to back Viktor Orban and support Hungary’s veto of a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine, calling it a good decision given France’s debt levels. Emmanuel Macron announced a trip to Japan and South Korea to find common ground on the Middle East crisis. At home, the government held the line on spending despite pressure. Sébastien Lecornu, the prime minister, announced €8.5 billion in ammunition spending through 2030 but rejected calls for fuel subsidies, saying the deficit at 5.1% left no room. The Bank of France gained €12.8 billion from selling gold reserves but cut growth forecasts due to the Middle East conflict. Police foiled a terrorist attack at a Bank of America branch in Paris, with officials pointing to Iranian links.
Bank of France realizes €12.8 billion gain from gold operations, announces economic forecast revisions
March 24, 2026
Jean-Luc Mélenchon attacks PS and Green leaders after municipal setbacks, deepens left-wing divisions
March 24–25, 2026
Macron announces upcoming Asia trip to Japan and South Korea amid Middle East tensions
March 27–28, 2026

United Kingdom flag United Kingdom

Donald Trump mocked Keir Starmer on social media and called Britain’s aircraft carriers “toys” as relations between the two countries soured this week. Trump shared a Saturday Night Live sketch ridiculing Mr Starmer as weak and dismissed British military forces while attacking the UK’s refusal to join military action against Iran. Trump’s attacks now go beyond policy disagreements to questioning the alliance itself, though the abuse is boosting Mr Starmer’s approval ratings at home. When Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, tried to rally G7 allies for Iran action, European foreign ministers including David Lammy, the foreign secretary, refused military support and agreed only to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after hostilities end. The tensions come as Britain’s military weakness shows. John Healey, the defence secretary, was ridiculed after he could not say how many warships the Royal Navy has during interviews about Iranian missile threats. Critics noted that Britain has “more admirals than warships.” Washington approved a potential $1 billion arms sale for British submarine development, but experts warn the AUKUS programme may be delayed by production bottlenecks. Meanwhile, the Iran war is forcing Britain to limit economic damage. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, ruled out help for all households facing rising energy bills, promising support only for those “who need it most” while warning companies against price gouging. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but markets expect four quarter-point rises as oil and gas prices jumped by the most since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The surge threatens to push inflation above target and end hopes of rate cuts. King Charles knocked over a commemorative plaque during a visit to Oxford, joking it was a “disaster,” while transport delays forced a last-minute switch from helicopter to car. He confirmed his upcoming US state visit despite diplomatic tensions. Nigel Farage faced protests and club apologies after a controversial visit to Ipswich Town Football Club during his local election campaign.
Starmer authorizes Royal Navy to intercept Russian 'shadow fleet' vessels in UK waters
March 15, 2026

Spain flag Spain

Pedro Sánchez removed politicians from his government’s top jobs this week, promoting Carlos Cuerpo, a technocrat who runs the economy ministry, to first vice president. The reshuffle puts three non-Socialists in the government’s top positions, suggesting Mr Sánchez trusts administrators more than party politicians to handle Spain’s economic challenges. Even as he reshuffles his cabinet, Mr Sánchez faces escalating corruption scandals. Audio recordings revealed that the Socialist party spent €20,000 on what it called ‘sewers’ operations — clandestine activities targeting judges, prosecutors, police officers and journalists. The party funnelled the money through campaign banners for Catalonia’s elections. Santos Cerdán, a senior party official, coordinated the scheme. The opposition continues tearing itself apart. Vox moved to expel Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, a founding member who demanded an extraordinary congress to challenge Santiago Abascal’s leadership. Critics within the far-right party say Mr Abascal has turned it into his personal vehicle, with financial irregularities involving consulting companies. Mr Sánchez defended his Iran policy in Congress this week, repeating Spain’s ‘No to war’ stance as Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the conservative leader, called him a ‘fake pacifist.’ The heated exchange showed how entrenched Spain’s opposition to the conflict has become. Yet Spain continues building partnerships elsewhere — King Felipe VI received Senegal’s president and announced €180 million in cooperation. He declared Senegal Spain’s first strategic partner in sub-Saharan Africa, despite the country’s recent ban on homosexuality. Economic forecasts remain solid. The Bank of Spain raised its growth projection to 2.3% for this year but warned that a prolonged Iran conflict could push inflation to nearly 6% and cut growth to 1.9%. The central bank praised the government’s anti-crisis package but said it lacks clear targets.
Israeli minister criticizes Sánchez over police treatment of Catholic patriarch
March 29, 2026

Norway flag Norway

Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s prime minister, announced 115 billion kroner in defence spending through 2036, the biggest military increase in decades as threats mount on Europe’s northern edge. The plan speeds up deployment of the Finnmark Brigade and submarine and frigate purchases, adds drone capabilities, but delays some air defence systems. Mr Støre moved 31 billion kroner to 2030, stretching the plan to 2040 because Norway needs to build deterrence faster than expected. While he presented the military buildup, Mr Støre’s government faced domestic pressure that cracked his coalition. Parliament voted to cut fuel taxes against the government’s wishes after the Centre Party broke ranks to join opposition parties. The defection forced the government to scrap road usage taxes temporarily, costing 6.7 billion kroner and creating a budget crisis. Mr Støre was also criticised for refusing to disclose which investment funds hold his 50 million kroner in assets, despite his own calls for transparency from others. Norway’s central bank held rates steady at 4% but warned rates might rise later this year. Ida Wolden Bache, the central bank governor, raised her forecast for rates and suggested one or two hikes by year-end due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. King Philippe and Queen Mathilde of Belgium completed a three-day state visit with meetings and a state banquet. Espen Barth Eide, the foreign minister, joined World Trade Organisation talks in Cameroon and called his Turkish and Egyptian counterparts on Middle East conflicts.
Government announces 115 billion kroner increase in defense spending through 2036
March 14–29, 2026
Parliament overrides government with fuel tax cuts as Senterpartiet breaks ranks
March 14–27, 2026
Norges Bank holds interest rates at 4% but signals potential increases amid inflation concerns
March 23–27, 2026
Foreign Minister Barth Eide engaged in Middle East diplomacy and international negotiations
March 14–29, 2026

Sweden flag Sweden

The Liberal Party accepted the Sweden Democrats as a governing partner, ending decades of exclusion. Simona Mohamsson, the Liberal leader, declared that Jimmie Åkesson is “no longer a racist.” The two appeared together at a Sweden-Ukraine football match, cementing their new partnership. This makes the Liberals the first traditional liberal party to accept SD in government, completing the Sweden Democrats’ journey from pariah to power. SD’s pull grows stronger. Two Moderate MPs, Arin Karapet and Marléne Lund Kopparklint, defected to SD this week. The Moderates demanded they resign their parliamentary seats, calling it “a matter of decency.” Sources suggest both had been sidelined for disloyalty to the party line. Sweden picked a fight with a fellow EU member. Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, condemned Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian foreign minister, for reportedly sharing confidential EU discussions with Lavrov. Mr Kristersson called it a violation of EU rules and said he hoped Hungary would be excluded from future proceedings. The government announced a 3.4 billion kronor energy relief package as prices rose from the Middle East war. The measures cut petrol taxes by one krona per litre and diesel by 40 öre, and electricity subsidies of 1,000-2,000 kronor for households. Erik Thedéen, the central bank governor, warned that the Iran war could trigger fresh inflation, with some officials split on whether to raise rates this summer. Sweden’s NATO integration hit an embarrassing snag. The Swedish Armed Forces reported 134 cold weather injuries in the first two months of 2026, nearly triple the 47 cases in all of 2025. Most affected were conscripts and military school students, with 13 conscripts suffering frostbite during exercises in Norrbotten.
Liberals accept Sweden Democrats in government cooperation
March 15–25, 2026
Defense Minister announces aid package for Ukraine
March 26, 2026