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Regional Summary

The Alignment Bazaar Across the Middle East and South Asia, governments are collecting partnerships like currencies, hedging against a world where no single alliance can be trusted. From Ankara to Riyadh to Abu Dhabi to New Delhi, leaders struck deals that would have seemed contradictory a decade ago — and did so openly, with no embarrassment. The common thread is not ideology but insurance: every government is betting that any one patron may prove unreliable. Turkey shows the logic most clearly. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president, accepted a seat on Donald Trump’s Gaza Peace Council, the warmest American embrace Ankara has had in years, while Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, warned of military action in Syria if Kurdish talks fail. Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party, revealed that Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, had sent him a handwoven carpet — a token of secret talks between lifelong enemies. Yet this same peace process nearly collapsed when a Turkish flag was torn down at the Nusaybin border crossing, forcing a coalition meeting. Mr Erdoğan is running an elaborate trade-off: deepening American ties to boost regional leverage, dangling Kurdish peace to unlock constitutional changes that would extend his rule, and eliminating domestic rivals — Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, was barred from the presidency by a court ruling on his diploma — to ensure no alternative power centre survives. Every moving part depends on every other. Saudi Arabia’s calculation is blunter. Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, secured Major Non-NATO Ally status from Washington, a legal designation that only 20 countries hold and that grants privileged access to American weapons, while pursuing a three-way defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan. The kingdom signed the founding charter for Mr Trump’s Gaza board at Davos even as it scaled back the Neom megaproject, bowing to fiscal reality after years of grand ambition. Riyadh is willing to pay more for American security guarantees precisely because it can no longer assume that oil wealth alone will buy strategic independence. Aramco’s chief dismissed forecasts of oversupply as overblown, but the decision to shrink The Line, Neom’s planned linear city, speaks louder than any Davos panel. The UAE pursued the most elaborate hedging of all. Mohammed bin Zayed, the president, visited New Delhi to sign a defence partnership and a $3 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal, then hosted the first three-way peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and America in Abu Dhabi, then joined the same Trump-backed Gaza board as its Saudi rival. G42, the Emirati artificial intelligence (AI) champion, unveiled a “digital sovereignty” framework designed to reassure Western partners still nervous about earlier Chinese ties — while building a 5-gigawatt AI campus that would make Abu Dhabi vital to the American tech stack. Each move reinforced the others: mediation credentials burnish the investment pitch, which funds the defence relationships, which underwrite the mediation. The circle works only so long as no patron demands exclusivity. India showed that the strategy extends beyond the Gulf. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the external affairs minister, rebuked Poland for engaging Pakistan and criticised selective American tariffs, while welcoming Mr bin Zayed with a pledge to double bilateral trade to $200 billion. The Reserve Bank of India proposed linking BRICS digital currencies for cross-border payments — a step toward reducing dollar dependence that Washington would once have treated as provocation. Gautam Adani’s conglomerate lost $12.5 billion in market value after the Securities and Exchange Commission tried to serve him legal papers by email, yet went ahead with a Brazilian aircraft-assembly deal and a full takeover of IANS, an Indian news agency, as though American legal risk were simply another cost of doing business in multiple jurisdictions. What unites these moves is a shared premise: that the post-American order has not yet arrived, but the exclusively American one is already gone. Each government is therefore building redundancy into its alliances — collecting security guarantees, trade corridors and mediating roles the way a prudent investor diversifies a portfolio. The danger is the same one that faces any stretched portfolio: when a crisis forces a binary choice, the options vanish. This week’s pattern reveals not strategic genius but strategic anxiety — a region busily insuring itself against a future it suspects no single partnership can secure.

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Country Summaries

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TurkeyTurkey

Turkey has shifted from strategic promiscuity toward selective alliance deepening, accepting President Donald Trump’s invitation to join his Gaza Peace Council as a founding member while coordinating intensively on Syria. The invitation represents the most significant upgrade in US-Turkey cooperation since the Kurdish peace process began. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accepted the role, designating Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan as Turkey’s representative, while the two leaders held multiple high-level phone calls to discuss Syria and Gaza coordination. (BBC News Türkçe) Mr Fidan held multiple meetings with regional counterparts and US officials on both conflicts, warning about potential military operations in Syria if negotiations fail while discussing extending the current ceasefire. (Anadolu Agency) The cooperation feeds into Turkey’s broader claim of emerging as a dominant regional power. Mr Erdoğan declared a “new era” in regional politics, arguing that Turkey’s Syria strategy has been vindicated and that Turkey will become “one of central poles in newly reshaped world order.” (Anadolu Agency) The rhetoric comes as Israel banned Bilal Erdoğan and 28 other senior Turkish officials from entering the country, citing “systematic boycott calls, glorification of violence and antisemitic content,” reflecting the complete collapse of Turkey-Israel relations. (Israel Hayom) Even as Turkey deepens its US partnership, the Kurdish peace process shows both remarkable progress and dangerous fragility. Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), issued an 8-point roadmap for Syria calling for Syrian Democratic Forces dissolution while making an extraordinary revelation: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), had gifted him a specially-woven carpet, which Mr Bahçeli named the “February 27, 2025 Peace and Democracy Carpet.” (Türkiye Gazetesi) The carpet gift represents extraordinary symbolism, indicating the depth of MHP-PKK negotiations. The peace process’s fragility became evident when a Turkish flag was torn down at the Nusaybin border crossing during protests. Despite Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party condemnation of the act, both Mr Erdoğan and Mr Bahçeli blamed the party directly, with the president vowing to find those responsible. The incident exposed how easily provocations can undermine the transactional negotiations linking Kurdish peace to constitutional amendments, forcing Mr Erdoğan and Mr Bahçeli into an urgent one-hour coalition meeting at the presidential complex. Meanwhile, the systematic persecution of opposition figures continues. An Istanbul court rejected Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, appeal against his university diploma cancellation, constitutionally barring Turkey’s most popular opposition politician from the presidency. New allegations also emerged about his associates’ use of private jets and North Cyprus trips, adding to legal troubles that could result in sentences exceeding 2,000 years. (Reuters)

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Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia received formal recognition as a Major Non-NATO Ally from President Donald Trump this week, marking the kingdom’s strongest institutional alignment with Washington in years. The designation, signed by presidential determination under the Foreign Assistance Act, places Saudi Arabia among only 20 countries to hold this status. (Federal Register) Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reinforced the diplomatic momentum at Davos, signing the founding charter of Mr Trump’s Board of Peace initiative for Gaza and conducting calls with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Iran and regional security. (US State Department) The moves suggest Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is strengthening formal ties with Washington while maintaining his broader multi-vector approach. Even as it deepens American ties, the kingdom is making hard-headed adjustments to its economic transformation plans. Saudi Arabia is conducting a major review of its flagship Neom megaproject, with plans to significantly scale back the development. The Line component may be reduced from its original 110-mile scope, and the kingdom has postponed the 2029 Asian Winter Games originally planned for the project. (Financial Times) The scaling back reflects fiscal realities despite continued oil market confidence. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser dismissed forecasts of oil oversupply as “seriously exaggerated” at Davos and announced the company expects $3-5 billion in AI-driven savings for 2025. (Reuters) The kingdom is also expanding its defence partnerships beyond the West. Turkey is reportedly in advanced discussions to join the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed in September 2025, potentially creating a trilateral “Muslim NATO” framework. (Jerusalem Post) The move comes as Saudi Arabia works to counter the UAE’s growing influence around the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, with reported talks involving Somalia, Egypt and Turkey about new defence pacts to expand regional influence beyond Abu Dhabi’s reach.

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United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates

President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan made his most significant bet on India this week, signing defence partnerships and trade targets that position New Delhi as a cornerstone of the UAE’s multi-alignment strategy. Mr Al Nahyan’s three-hour visit to India produced a Strategic Defence Partnership covering defence industrial collaboration, counter-terrorism, and special operations, plus a commitment to double bilateral trade from $100 billion to $200 billion by 2032. (UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs) It was his fifth visit to India in a decade, his third as president. The partnership was anchored by a $3 billion energy deal: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Gas (ADNOC Gas) signed a ten-year agreement to supply 0.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually from Das Island to India’s Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), making India the UAE’s largest LNG customer. (World Oil) Even as it deepens partnerships, the UAE continues to position itself as a trusted mediator across geopolitical divides. Abu Dhabi hosted the first trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks this week, building on its role in facilitating 17 prisoner exchanges that have released 4,641 detainees. Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed said the UAE’s balanced partnerships with all parties enable its mediation role. (UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs) The president also accepted a US invitation to join the Board of Peace for Gaza, with Mr bin Zayed emphasising the UAE’s confidence in President Donald Trump’s leadership and commitment to implementing his 20-point peace plan. (UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs) The UAE’s tech ambitions advanced through G42’s new digital sovereignty framework, which promises governments full data control when deploying AI systems. The CEO set a target of building one billion AI agents in 2026, supported by Microsoft partnerships and positioning for a 5-gigawatt Stargate AI campus in Abu Dhabi. (The National) The framework appears designed to address sovereignty concerns that constrained previous China partnerships while maintaining the UAE’s AI hub ambitions.

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IndiaIndia

India delivered an unusually blunt diplomatic signal this week, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar warning Poland against “fuelling terrorism in our neighbourhood” and criticising selective US tariffs during a Polish deputy prime minister’s visit. The remarks, described as direct diplomatic messaging, showed India willing to actively contest approaches by partners that it views as undermining its security interests. (Indian Express) Even as it pushed back, India deepened ties elsewhere. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates made his fifth visit to India in ten years, with the leaders committing to double bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032, up from the current $100 billion. The three-hour Delhi visit also produced a joint condemnation of cross-border terrorism, demonstrating India’s sustained Gulf engagement with concrete economic targets. (Prime Minister’s Office) The most significant move, though, may have been economic. India’s central bank recommended including a proposal to connect Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries’ digital currencies on the 2026 summit agenda, aiming to facilitate cross-border trade and tourism payments while potentially reducing reliance on the US dollar. With India’s e-rupee already serving 7m retail users since its December 2022 launch, the proposal represents institutional positioning within an alternative financial architecture. (Times of India) India’s major business groups, meanwhile, showed resilience under external pressure. The US Securities and Exchange Commission asked a federal court for permission to serve legal summons to Gautam Adani and his nephew via email, after failed attempts through Indian government channels. Adani Group stocks fell $12.5 billion in market cap on the news. (Reuters) Yet Mr Adani’s conglomerate continued expanding, with AMG Media Networks acquiring the remaining 24% stake in IANS news agency and announcing a partnership with Brazil’s Embraer to assemble commercial aircraft in India. (The Hindu)