Skip to main content

​
Regional Summary

The Transatlantic Crack-Up The American alliance, treated as the fixed point of European security and diplomacy, is the main source of instability that European governments must manage. From Paris to Rome to Oslo, leaders who had shaped their foreign policies around Washington’s preferences found themselves scrambling against their main ally — and discovering that their domestic arrangements are too fragile to absorb the shock. France’s response was theatrical. Emmanuel Macron used Davos to denounce American attempts to “subordinate Europe,” while his Foreign Ministry launched a meme-laden social media account to counter disinformation from both Moscow and Washington — a pairing that would have been unthinkable two years ago. Yet the telling detail was quieter: a French magistrate reported that American State Department officials had approached her to cast Marine Le Pen’s conviction as political persecution. If true, this represents not diplomatic friction but interference in the courts, and it landed in a country where Ms Le Pen’s appeal trial — and with it her 2027 presidential eligibility — already consumes the political oxygen. France talks tough abroad while governing at home through constitutional workarounds; Michel Lecornu, the prime minister, broke his own promise and rammed the budget through parliament under Article 49.3, surviving censure motions from left and right. Confronting America is easier when it distracts from the absence of a working majority. Italy’s case is telling because Giorgia Meloni had invested heavily in her personal rapport with Donald Trump. She called his Greenland tariff threats “an error,” telephoned him to say so, then issued a sharper rebuke after he disparaged NATO allies’ service in Afghanistan — a remark that touched the memory of 53 dead Italian soldiers. The pivot was strategic as well as emotional: within days Ms Meloni was in Berlin signing defence and competition agreements with Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, building a “Merzoni” axis as a rival engine to the old Franco-German partnership. Yet her coalition remains fractured. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister, received Tommy Robinson, the British far-right agitator, at his ministry, forcing Antonio Tajani to distance himself publicly and reminding observers that Italy’s diplomatic shift rests on a government whose members cannot agree on which foreigners to be seen with. Britain and the Nordic states show the pattern. Keir Starmer called Mr Trump’s Afghanistan slur “insulting and appalling” and demanded an apology — language no British prime minister has used toward a sitting American president in decades. King Charles reportedly raised concerns through private channels, an intervention that hints at how far normal diplomatic channels have broken down. In Norway, Mr Trump sent Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister, a message linking Greenland to the Nobel Peace Prize, prompting the foreign minister to float European Union membership. Sweden chose European solidarity over reflexive support for America, its prime minister declaring the country would not bow and scrape; meanwhile Jimmie Åkesson of the Sweden Democrats overtook the Social Democrat leader as the most trusted politician, a milestone that underscores how domestic realignments complicate any government’s space to manoeuvre abroad. Even Spain, consumed by a deadly train crash and territorial financing disputes, found King Felipe defending European unity before the European Parliament in terms plainly aimed at Washington. Germany, the continent’s largest economy, split the difference. Mr Merz spoke coolly at Davos about strategic autonomy; his finance minister called Mr Trump’s tariffs “blackmail.” Yet Berlin quietly waited for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s secretary-general to broker an Arctic framework, after which the threats evaporated. Germany’s Bundeswehr posted its best recruitment figures in 12 years — but experts publicly questioned whether 1,236 tonnes of German gold sitting in New York Federal Reserve vaults remained safe under an erratic American president. That a serious country entertains such a question shows how deep the mistrust runs. European governments are being forced to treat the United States both as an essential partner and an unpredictable threat — and none of them has the political stability to sustain that balancing act for long. The alliance is not breaking; it is becoming the problem it was designed to solve.

​
Country Summaries

​
FranceFrance

France is pushing back hard against American pressure under President Donald Trump’s second term, adopting a confrontational stance that spans from public criticism to institutional counter-measures. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Emmanuel Macron delivered a combative speech criticising US trade policies and calling out attempts to “subordinate Europe” — all while wearing aviator sunglasses due to an eye condition that made him an unlikely viral sensation. (Multiple outlets) Mr Trump responded with mockery, but the French eyewear manufacturer saw its stock rise 28%. More seriously, Mr Trump threatened 200% tariffs on European countries opposing his Greenland acquisition plans and leaked Mr Macron’s private messages, though he later suspended the tariff threats after talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. (Le Figaro) The confrontation goes beyond rhetoric. France’s Foreign Ministry launched a new social media account using memes, irony and pop culture to counter disinformation and attacks from both Russia and the US, gaining 80,000 followers in a sharp break from traditional diplomatic communication. (Challenges) Even more striking was the revelation that US State Department officials had approached a French magistrate in May 2025, seeking to portray Marine Le Pen’s conviction as political persecution. Magali Lafourcade, Secretary General of the National Consultative Commission on Human Rights, reported the contact to the Foreign Ministry as potential interference in French judicial proceedings. (Le Parisien) Even as it squares off with Washington, France’s domestic politics remain stuck in crisis mode. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu broke his promise and used Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget after parliamentary negotiations stalled, surviving two censure motions from the far-left and far-right before announcing plans to build 2m homes by 2030. (Multiple outlets) The episode demonstrated France’s continued dependence on constitutional workarounds to govern with a minority government. The most consequential political event, though, was Ms Le Pen’s testimony in her appeal trial for alleged EU funds embezzlement. She spent over ten hours adopting a more conciliatory tone and admitting some “negligence” while denying intentional wrongdoing. Her 2027 presidential candidacy hangs on the verdict, as she currently faces a five-year ban from holding office. Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, her party’s president, campaigned for “several dozens” of municipal victories in March while criticising Mr Trump’s European policies — suggesting the far-right is positioning for mainstream credibility ahead of a potentially pivotal 2027 election.

​
United KingdomUnited Kingdom

Britain is in open diplomatic confrontation with the United States, marking the most serious alliance crisis since Suez. President Donald Trump threatened 10% baseline tariffs rising to 25% in June on the UK and European allies over their opposition to US control of Greenland. Prime Minister Keir Starmer rejected the demands and condemned the threats as “completely wrong.” (The Guardian) The economic coercion escalated into personal attack when Mr Trump claimed NATO troops “stayed a little back, a little off the frontlines” in Afghanistan. Mr Starmer responded that the remarks were “insulting and frankly appalling” and suggested Mr Trump should apologise for comments about 457 fallen British soldiers. (The Guardian) The crisis reached constitutional dimensions when King Charles III allegedly raised concerns through private channels about Mr Trump’s Afghanistan comments, reportedly contributing to the president’s subsequent backtrack. The monarch’s intervention demonstrates how even constitutionally neutral figures are being drawn into what was once manageable diplomatic friction. (Daily Mail) The diplomatic rupture has coincided with accelerating domestic political fragmentation. Labour’s National Executive Committee voted 8-1 to block Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, fuelling speculation about his leadership ambitions and deepening internal party tensions. Unions and members of parliament (MPs) criticised the move as undemocratic. (The Guardian) The Conservatives face their own haemorrhaging as Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, and Andrew Rosindell, a member of parliament, defected to Reform UK within days. Kemi Badenoch, the party leader, sacked Mr Jenrick before his defection and warned against “psychodrama.” Despite the defections, polls show Ms Badenoch’s approval rating rising, suggesting some stabilisation of the Conservative position. (The Guardian)

​
ItalyItaly

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni broke with diplomatic protocol this week to publicly criticise President Donald Trump, calling his Greenland tariff threats “an error” in a challenge to her administration’s closest foreign partner. The rebuke came during a press conference in Seoul, where Ms Meloni stated she does not support Mr Trump’s threatened tariffs against European countries sending troops to Greenland. She telephoned Mr Trump to express disagreement and worked to mediate between American and European Union positions through NATO. (governo.it) Days later, the Italian government issued an even stronger condemnation after Mr Trump remarked that NATO allies “stayed behind” during Afghanistan operations. Italy’s official response called the comments “unacceptable” and demanded respect for the 53 Italian soldiers killed and over 700 wounded in the conflict. (governo.it) The shift signals Italy’s willingness to challenge Washington when national honour and core interests are at stake, despite Ms Meloni’s privileged relationship with Mr Trump. Even as Italy pushes back against America, it is deepening alternative partnerships within Europe. Ms Meloni met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for bilateral government consultations, announcing enhanced defence and economic cooperation and signing agreements on competitiveness reform. The leaders positioned their partnership as an alternative to traditional Franco-German EU leadership — the so-called “Merzoni” axis that observers see as potentially Europe’s new motor. (ilsole24ore.com) Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani added to the more assertive tone by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “ungrateful” for his Davos criticism of European support, revealing growing Italian frustration with Kyiv’s demands. (ansa.it) The coalition faces mounting internal pressures that could complicate this diplomatic recalibration. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini caused political uproar by receiving British far-right extremist Tommy Robinson at the Transport Ministry, prompting condemnation from opposition parties and forcing coalition partner Mr Tajani to distance himself publicly from the meeting. (repubblica.it) The incident exposed deepening fractures within the government and Mr Salvini’s willingness to embrace internationally toxic figures despite the diplomatic embarrassment it causes. Meanwhile, institutional resistance mechanisms remain engaged ahead of Italy’s constitutional referendum in March. President Sergio Mattarella emphasised judicial independence in remarks to magistrates, stressing that Italy’s Constitution is founded on separation of powers and that judicial decisions must be made “according to law and not based on external reasons due to conditioning, prejudice, influences.” The presidential intervention represents pushback against the government’s judicial reforms as the referendum approaches.

​
NorwayNorway

President Donald Trump sent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre a message stating he no longer feels an “obligation to think purely of Peace” after not receiving the Nobel Prize, demanding “Complete and Total Control of Greenland.” The message was a response to a joint Norway-Finland attempt to deescalate tariff threats. (PBS NewsHour) The unprecedented escalation triggered coordinated Norwegian responses. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide broke a major political taboo by suggesting Norway should reconsider EU membership due to Mr Trump’s tariff threats, though Centre Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum criticized the timing as “unwise.” (Document.no) Mr Eide also met with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen for crisis talks, reaffirming Norway’s full support for Denmark and Greenland. The Danish foreign minister emphasized the need to distinguish friends from enemies while maintaining focus on Ukraine support. (BT.no) The crisis also activated NATO coordination mechanisms. Defence Minister Tore Sandvik attended an emergency meeting with Nordic defence ministers and Secretary-General Mark Rutte to discuss enhanced Arctic missions, with Denmark and Greenland proposing increased NATO presence in the region. (NRK) Even as the diplomatic crisis escalated, Norway signaled economic continuity. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg told Bloomberg TV that the $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund sees no reason to withdraw from US markets despite geopolitical tensions, emphasizing that the fund’s presence reflects US market size. (Bloomberg)

​
GermanyGermany

President Donald Trump threatened tariffs against Germany, then backed down after NATO talks—a whiplash week that epitomises Germany’s fraught alliance reality. The turmoil began when Mr Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight European countries, including Germany, over Greenland reconnaissance missions. Lars Klingbeil, the finance minister, called the threats “blackmail” and warned that Europe would respond firmly with counter-measures. (Stern) Chancellor Friedrich Merz took a more measured tone at Davos, calling for European strategic autonomy and warning that Europe must not rely solely on US partnerships in the new era of great power politics. (Spiegel) The crisis ended when Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, negotiated a face-saving “framework agreement” on Arctic security cooperation, and Mr Trump withdrew his threats. (Multiple sources) Even as it weathered diplomatic pressure, Germany continued rebuilding its military. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, reported the best recruitment results since conscription ended, with 3,000 more soldiers in 2025 bringing the German armed forces (Bundeswehr) to 184,200 personnel—its highest level in 12 years. (Tagesschau) Yet vulnerabilities persist. The Bundesbank faces 2.5 billion cyberattacks annually, while experts question the security of 1,236 tons of German gold stored in New York Federal Reserve vaults given Mr Trump’s erratic policies. (Spiegel)

​
SpainSpain

A deadly train crash killed at least 39 people this week, creating a crisis management test for President Pedro Sánchez’s minority government under pressure from territorial disputes and coalition fractures. The collision in Adamuz, Córdoba, prompted three days of official mourning and intense criticism from opposition parties. Mr Sánchez visited the site promising transparency while facing attacks from People’s Party (PP) leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Vox leader Santiago Abascal over infrastructure management and government response. (RTVE) Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) president Oriol Junqueras seized on the crisis to demand Transport Minister Óscar Puente’s resignation over railway management failures. (El Correo Gallego) The disaster compounded existing pressures from Spain’s fractured political landscape. Mr Feijóo organised 13 regional PP presidents to sign a declaration opposing the government’s bilateral financing agreement with Catalonia, demanding a multilateral approach and promising an alternative model if they reach power. (El Mundo) The territorial financing dispute reflects escalating centre-periphery tensions that the PP is now mobilising through its regional strongholds. Coalition pressures are mounting from both directions. Mr Junqueras threatened to force a February vote on Catalonia’s income tax collection rights if no agreement is reached with the government. (El Correo Gallego) Meanwhile, Mr Abascal’s Vox suspended coalition talks with the PP in Extremadura, claiming the PP offered insufficient cabinet positions — a breakdown that complicates the party’s ability to govern regionally and reflects broader tensions within the Spanish right. (ABC) Amid these domestic troubles, King Felipe VI addressed the European Parliament to mark the 40th anniversary of Spain’s EU membership, defending European unity against what appeared to be a reference to President Donald Trump’s threats. The speech reaffirmed Spain’s European commitment even as the minority government struggles with mounting domestic pressures. (ABC)

​
SwedenSweden

Sweden faced its first major test as a NATO ally when President Donald Trump threatened tariffs over European support for Denmark in his Greenland dispute—and chose European solidarity over automatic American alignment. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson attended emergency meetings in Davos and Brussels, rejected Mr Trump’s invitation to join a “peace council,” and coordinated a seven-nation statement with Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Britain against the tariff threats. “We svassar not for anyone,” Mr Kristersson declared, using Swedish slang for bowing and scraping, while emphasising the importance of US-Europe dialogue. (Svenska Dagbladet) The response demonstrated Sweden’s maturing NATO relationship—moving beyond automatic alignment toward selective coordination based on shared interests. Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard met with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in Stockholm while Defence Minister Pål Jonson travelled to Brussels for Arctic security talks, showing intensive Nordic coordination during the crisis. (government sources) Even as Sweden navigates alliance tensions abroad, its domestic transformation accelerates. Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson reached 43% trust approval this week, overtaking Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson at 42% to become the most trusted party leader for the first time in polling history. Demoskop’s polling chief confirmed this represents a statistical overtaking after gradual convergence from a 28-point gap two years ago, as Ms Andersson lost support among Centre Party and Green voters. (Aftonbladet) The milestone signals the complete normalisation of a party that emerged from neo-Nazi origins to become kingmaker in Swedish politics, strengthening Mr Åkesson’s position ahead of September elections and his demands for cabinet seats in any right-wing government. Meanwhile, Sweden’s NATO integration proceeds on multiple fronts. The Armed Forces announced deployment of JAS 39 Gripen fighters to Iceland for incident preparedness duties during February and March—the first time the Skaraborg air wing has participated in a NATO combat operation. The mission forms part of Sweden’s role in NATO’s Joint Forces Command Norfolk (JFC Norfolk), which covers the Arctic from North America to the Finnish-Norwegian border with Russia. (Svenska Dagbladet)