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Regional Summary

The Sovereignty Shuffle When middle powers assert independence from Washington, they end up proving how little room they have to manoeuvre. Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, declared at Davos that “the old order is dead.” But his retreat told a truer story. Within days of announcing trade deals with China, including a quota for 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a reduced tariff, Mr Carney was forced to clarify, under threat of 100% American tariffs, that no comprehensive free-trade agreement was planned. The episode captured a pattern across the Americas: leaders defy the United States, only to discover that the ties binding them to Washington are real, not rhetorical. Even Mr Carney’s domestic reward was mixed. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, praised the Davos speech and offered bipartisan cooperation — a rare gift — yet Quebec separatists seized on Mr Carney’s bungled reference to the Plains of Abraham to trigger the strongest federal-provincial backlash in years. Defying outsiders does not buy unity at home; it can sharpen old fractures instead. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, tested the same approach with more theatrical flair and no less contradiction. His New York Times op-ed denouncing the American capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro as the first military attack on South America in two centuries was followed by drama. On the same day, he held a 45-minute call with Xi Jinping to coordinate what Brasília calls Global South resistance. Visa exemptions for Chinese citizens reinforced the message. Yet Mr Lula cannot escape Washington’s grip either. Brasília saw Donald Trump’s invitation to join a Gaza peace council as a trap: accept and become a subordinate, decline and confirm opposition. Mr Lula chose rhetoric — “Brazil will not submit to hegemonic projects” — while keeping dialogue open with Washington, a formula that depends entirely on American patience. At home, the 2026 election is already sharpening. Mr Lula signalled he will run again with his vice-president, but polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, beating him in a run-off, and a rally of 18,000 for the imprisoned former president showed that Bolsonarismo retains real power to mobilise. Sovereignty talk abroad may yet prove a weak substitute for economic results at home. Mexico offers the clearest illustration of how dramatic sovereignty coexists with practical dependence. Claudia Sheinbaum, the president, banned American military aircraft from landing at civilian airports, a move designed to look firm on television. Days later her security secretary met the FBI director and handed over 37 criminals to American custody, bringing the total transferred to 92 — with the condition that none would face the death penalty. Ms Sheinbaum’s approval rating sits at nearly 70%, proof that most Mexicans accept the balancing act. But her governing coalition is creaking: allied parties have stalled electoral reform because they were not consulted, and her party, Morena, lacks the votes for constitutional change on its own. Sovereignty gestures are easier than coalition management. José Antonio Kast, Chile’s incoming president, is attempting a different kind of independence — from his own coalition. His cabinet of 24 ministers includes 16 independents, the most technocratic line-up in Chilean democratic memory. Mr Kast sold this as “emergency governance,” free of party quotas. Coalition partners, given almost no input, were not charmed. The gamble only makes sense if Mr Kast can bypass Congress through executive competence, yet he enters office with a weak legislative position, a predecessor still facing a reopened embezzlement case, and deadly forest fires testing state capacity in the south. His early foreign-policy moves — studying the Dominican Republic’s border-fence model, deploying a naval vessel to Antarctica — signal a presidency built on security and sovereignty claims. Whether technocracy without a legislative majority amounts to strength or isolation remains to be seen. What unites these cases is not merely posture but paradox. Each leader is using sovereignty talk to shore up support at home in an era when American unpredictability makes such talk both more appealing and more dangerous. Mr Carney, Mr Lula, Ms Sheinbaum and Mr Kast all discovered the same thing this week: the louder you proclaim independence, the more visible the constraints become — economic, institutional, coalition — that make true independence impossible. Middle powers across the Americas are performing sovereignty rather than practising it, and the audience they most need to convince is at home.

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Country Summaries

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CanadaCanada

Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the “old order is dead” in a landmark speech that earned him a standing ovation at the World Economic Forum and marked Canada’s most explicit break from Western institutional deference in decades. In Davos, Mr Carney called for middle powers to band together and urged countries to condemn economic coercion “even by allies” — a reference to American trade threats. (The Globe and Mail) He backed the rhetoric with concrete action, announcing trade agreements with China and investment deals with Qatar during the same trip. President Donald Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada pursues a trade deal with China, prompting Mr Carney to clarify that while limited agreements were made on electric vehicles and agriculture — including a 49,000 Chinese EV quota at a reduced 6.1% tariff rate — no comprehensive free trade agreement is planned. (CBC News) The prime minister is expected to spend much of 2026 travelling internationally to secure new partnerships, with a goal of doubling non-US exports within a decade. (CTV News) The external pressure is producing contradictory domestic responses. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre offered to help fast-track Liberal legislation on trade and affordability measures when Parliament resumes, calling Mr Carney’s Davos speech “well-crafted” — an unusual display of bipartisan cooperation in the face of US threats. (CBC News) Yet Quebec sovereigntists mobilised fiercely against the prime minister this week, with Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon accusing him of “rewriting history” after Mr Carney described the Battle of the Plains of Abraham as the beginning of Canadian “partnership” rather than conquest. (Radio-Canada) The backlash forced Mr Carney to cancel a planned news conference and prompted federal-provincial sovereigntist coordination not seen in years. Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet appeared at the PQ convention declaring “Paul is my chief” and calling for unity between sovereigntist parties — the first time a Bloc leader was invited to speak at a PQ event since 2023. Both demanded an apology from the prime minister. The episode shows how even amid external threats that historically unified Canada, the country’s linguistic and regional divisions remain as sharp as ever.

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BrazilBrazil

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva published a combative op-ed in the New York Times condemning America’s capture of President Nicolás Maduro as “another lamentable chapter in the continuous erosion of international law,” declaring it the first direct American military attack on South America in over 200 years. The timing was deliberate. On the same day President Donald Trump launched his Gaza Peace Council, Mr Lula held a 45-minute call with President Xi Jinping to coordinate Global South resistance, with Mr Xi emphasising the need to protect developing nations’ interests and strengthen the UN’s role. (G1) Mr Lula also announced visa exemptions for Chinese citizens, reciprocating China’s 2025 measure. The diplomatic offensive reflects Brazil’s increasingly assertive sovereignty positioning, even as it creates pressure on the country’s traditional multi-alignment strategy. Mr Trump’s invitation for Mr Lula to join his Gaza council has been analysed as a “diplomatic trap” — accept and subordinate to a US-controlled framework, or decline and assume public misalignment. (Gazeta do Povo) Brazil, Mr Lula declared, “will not submit to hegemonic projects” while maintaining dialogue with Washington. (G1) At home, both sides of Brazil’s polarised political system are mobilising for 2026. In a private meeting, Mr Lula signalled plans to run for re-election with Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin, saying “in a winning team, you don’t change players.” (Veja) The Workers’ Party (PT) is already organising across multiple states, pressuring Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to run for Senate in São Paulo depending on Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s presidential intentions. Meanwhile, a rally organised by Deputy Nikolas Ferreira drew 18,000 people to Brasília calling for former President Jair Bolsonaro’s release, demonstrating that the imprisoned former president’s movement retains substantial mobilisation capacity. (G1) New polling shows the race will be competitive: while Mr Lula leads most first-round scenarios, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro defeats him 48.1% to 41.9% in a hypothetical runoff.

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MexicoMexico

Mexico is drawing explicit operational boundaries with the United States while simultaneously deepening tactical cooperation — a careful balance that defines how a junior partner manages an asymmetric relationship. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced this week that US military aircraft will no longer be permitted to land at civilian airports, responding to controversy over a US Hercules aircraft landing at Toluca. Instead, she said, Mexican aircraft will travel to pick up officials for training. (El Financiero) Even as Ms Sheinbaum drew that red line, her Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch was meeting with new FBI Director Kash Patel to discuss increased operational coordination. The meeting covered joint operations and extraditions, and two high-value targets were transferred to US custody immediately afterward. (Tiempo.com.mx) Days later, Mr García Harfuch delivered 37 more criminals to the US in a third major handover, bringing the total transferred to 92. He emphasised that none would face the death penalty and all represented genuine security threats to Mexico. (El Financiero) Ms Sheinbaum’s Fourth Transformation (4T) government maintains strong popular support — 69.5% approval according to Mitofsky polling — but faces emerging coalition management challenges. Electoral reform, a key institutional priority, has stalled amid resistance from allied parties. The Labour Party (PT) and Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (Verde) expressed concerns about the lack of dialogue, with Ricardo Monreal, the National Regeneration Movement’s (Morena) Senate leader, acknowledging that the party lacks sufficient votes for constitutional reform without allied support. Opposition parties are demanding meaningful negotiations. (Política Expansión)

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ChileChile

President-elect José Antonio Kast unveiled a cabinet with two-thirds independents, the most technocratic government in Chilean democratic history. Mr Kast presented his 24-minister cabinet with 16 independents and only eight party members, describing it as a “government of emergency.” The technocratic composition drew sharp criticism from coalition parties over minimal representation, with Mr Kast stating the cabinet “does not arise from quotas or calculations.” The appointment process was notably closed, with parties having little input on final selections. (La Tercera) The unprecedented composition reflects both Mr Kast’s campaign promise of emergency governance and his weak position in Congress, where institutional constraints force adaptation from traditional party-based cabinet formation. As Mr Kast prepares to take power, the outgoing administration faces twin crises. Major forest fires in Ñuble and Biobío regions killed over 20 people and destroyed hundreds of homes, prompting President Gabriel Boric to declare a state of catastrophe. The emergency triggered a massive response including military deployment and international firefighting assistance, testing state capacity during the transition. (BBC) Meanwhile, the Santiago Court of Appeals revoked the dismissal of Mr Boric in a case investigating alleged misappropriation of public funds for hiring a private lawyer. The court questioned the “public necessity” of the contract and ordered the case reopened, keeping Mr Boric as an accused party during his final weeks in office. (Nuevo Poder) The president-elect also began building his foreign policy agenda around border security. Mr Kast met with Dominican President Luis Abinader to study migration control policies and border security measures, specifically the border fence model. Mr Kast indicated the Dominican experience would inform Chile’s “Plan Escudo Fronterizo” starting in March, emphasising biometric controls and systematic identification of border crossers. (La Tercera) Chilean Armed Forces meanwhile conducted Operation Sovereignty with deployment of the multipurpose vessel Sargento Aldea to Antarctica, reinforcing Chile’s territorial claims and logistical presence in the region. (Zona Militar)