Regional Summary
The Shield Slips American security guarantees, once seen as permanent, are now contingent on Washington’s priorities elsewhere. Every capital in the Indo-Pacific is rushing to adjust, and each response exposes contradictions in its own position. South Korea proves this. America stripped THAAD and Patriot batteries from the peninsula to use in the Middle East, over Seoul’s objections—the first time Washington has removed defence assets from South Korea against its ally’s wishes. Lee Jae-myung, South Korea’s leader, admitted that his country “cannot stop” the move, exposing the asymmetry that decades of alliance had concealed. Mr Lee’s response—fuel price caps, military pension pledges, an invitation to Emmanuel Macron—are domestic sedatives and hedging, neither of which replaces missile defence. His opposition is too busy disowning an impeached predecessor to exploit the opening. Pyongyang may not be so distracted. Japan drew the opposite lesson and acted first. Sanae Takaichi, the prime minister, released oil reserves unilaterally—before consulting G7 partners—and deployed long-range missiles covering the East China Sea. The moves signal that Japan has decided waiting for partnership is itself a risk. Hosting Taiwan’s premier for the first time in 52 years reinforces the point: Tokyo is building relationships that Washington long discouraged, because Washington can no longer be relied upon to hold every line. Ms Takaichi’s approval rating dipped, but her boldness has a domestic constituency that her gift-catalogue scandal cannot touch. Taiwan, most exposed to any shift in American attention, responded with hardware. Parliament unanimously approved $9 billion in arms purchases, and the defence minister denied that Washington had asked Taipei to divert weapons to the Middle East—a denial whose necessity illustrates the anxiety. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) record revenues and deepening market dominance provide Taiwan with deterrence no missile system can match: the world’s dependence on its chips makes an interruption of its economy everyone’s catastrophe. The opposition’s decision to unite for the next elections suggests that even domestic rivals sense the island cannot afford internal division when external shelter is uncertain. Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, and Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president, illustrate two poles of response to American rebalancing. Mr Albanese sent warplanes to the Gulf and endorsed strikes on Iran, binding Australia more tightly to Washington at the cost of rising interest rates and Labour backbench dissent—loyalty to the alliance has a price measured in mortgage payments as well as political capital. Mr Prabowo moved in the opposite direction, calling American strikes “irrational” and offering to mediate, language far sharper than Jakarta’s usual non-aligned boilerplate. Yet his boldness abroad coexists with the quiet intimidation of domestic critics and implausible claims of 300% returns from a sovereign wealth fund—foreign-policy independence is easier to declare than democratic accountability is to practice. America’s pivot to the Middle East has turned its Indo-Pacific alliances from a ceiling into a floor: a baseline each government must build above, using its own resources, diplomacy and economic leverage. The allies are not breaking away, but they are no longer standing still. What holds them together is less shared conviction than shared uncertainty about what Washington will do next.Country Summaries
South Korea
The United States moved missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East this week despite Seoul’s objections, creating the biggest test of the alliance since Lee Jae-myung took office. Washington redeployed parts of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot systems to support operations against Iran, forcing Mr Lee to acknowledge that South Korea “cannot stop” the move while insisting his country can defend itself against North Korea. Analysts warned that Pyongyang might see the withdrawal as an opening for low-level provocations.
The weapons transfer marks the first time America has removed defense assets from Korea for other theaters over Seoul’s opposition. Mr Lee has tried to manage the alliance through what he calls balanced diplomacy, but the redeployment shows how American global commitments can override Korean preferences even within the partnership. The president will host Emmanuel Macron in early April for talks on trade and technology cooperation, part of his effort to build ties beyond Washington.
At home, Mr Lee continues to govern effectively while his opposition crumbles. He announced fuel price caps—the first in 30 years—as oil surged because of the Middle East conflict, tackled Seoul’s housing crisis with new measures, and promised military pension increases. The conservative People Power Party, meanwhile, broke with Yoon Suk-yeol, the impeached former president, this week, apologizing for last year’s martial law crisis and barring his return to politics. But the split has exposed factional divisions as hardliners loyal to Mr Yoon clash with reformists trying to distance the party from the disgraced leader. With local elections coming in June, the party faces candidate shortages and internal conflicts that may prevent it from mounting effective opposition.
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- Lee Jae-myung announces domestic policy measures including housing controls and fuel price caps — President Lee announced measures to tackle Seoul’s housing crisis, implemented South Korea’s first fuel price cap in 30 years due to Middle East crisis, and called for supplementary budget funding. He also visited local markets and announced military pension service credit increases. (economist.com)
- Samsung reports record R&D spending and competitive smartphone market performance — Samsung spent a record 37.7 trillion won on R&D in 2025, tied with Apple for top smartphone production globally at 239.8 million units each, and launched new Galaxy S26 series showing strong pre-order momentum. (koreaherald.com)
- Former PM Han Duck-soo faces appellate trial on insurrection charges — An appellate trial began for former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on charges of abetting former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s martial law declaration in 2024. (koreatimes.co.kr)
- Yoon Suk-yeol refuses to attend Itaewon disaster investigation hearing — Former President Yoon declined to meet with representatives from the special investigation committee on the 2022 Itaewon crowd crush, refusing to attend a hearing despite requests from the commission. (koreaherald.com)
Notes
Notes
US moves air defense systems from South Korea to Middle East despite Seoul's objections
March 10–12, 2026
Lee Jae-myung announces domestic policy measures including housing controls and fuel price caps
March 9–13, 2026
Other
Australia
Anthony Albanese deployed Australian warplanes and 85 troops to the Gulf following Iranian attacks on regional partners.
Mr Albanese announced that E-7 Wedgetail aircraft and air-to-air missiles would deploy to the UAE and endorsed US-Israel strikes on Iran. Labor MPs questioned the legal basis, while the Coalition welcomed the deployment and the Greens warned against being “dragged into Trump and Netanyahu’s latest forever war.”
The military deployment is hitting Australian households. Financial markets now price a 70% chance that the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its March 17 meeting, with three of the big four banks linking expected hikes to oil price spikes from the Iran conflict. Andrew Hauser, the deputy governor, warned that inflation pressures from the conflict were “not helpful” and called persistent inflation “toxic.”
The deployment sparked domestic criticism. Labor MPs criticized the government for quickly endorsing the strikes, while Grace Tame, the former Australian of the Year, called Mr Albanese a “coward” and “turncoat” for refusing to condemn them. She contrasted his position with his past advocacy for Palestine.
The government appears stable. The Greens confirmed they will support Labor’s superannuation tax hikes in May’s budget, calling it a “once-in-a-generation opportunity for ambitious tax reform.” Dennis Richardson, the former ASIO director-general, resigned from the royal commission into antisemitism, saying he felt “surplus to requirements” and “grossly overpaid” at $5,500 per day.
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- Albanese criticised for joining field invasion at Rabbitohs game — Anthony Albanese faced criticism after running onto the field at Allianz Stadium to celebrate Rabbitohs player Alex Johnston’s record-breaking 213th NRL try. Critics called the move ‘embarrassing’ while supporters defended the long-time Souths fan’s enthusiasm. The incident included reports of an altercation with Roosters officials over lift access. (dailymail.co.uk)
- Grace Tame calls Albanese a ‘coward’ over Iran war stance — Grace Tame, the former Australian of the Year, published a scathing essay in Crikey accusing Anthony Albanese of being a ‘coward’ and ‘turncoat’ for refusing to condemn US-Israel strikes on Iran, contrasting his current position with his historical advocacy for Palestine. (theguardian.com)
- US launches forced labour trade investigation including Australia among 60 countries — The Trump administration initiated Section 301 trade investigations targeting Australia and 59 other countries over their policies on goods made with forced labour. The probe could result in new tariffs if countries are found to have inadequate enforcement against forced labour imports. (cnbc.com)
- Northern Territory requests ADF assistance for flood recovery as waters recede — Lia Finocchiaro, the NT chief minister, requested federal ADF assistance for flood recovery in the Top End as the Daly River reached record levels. Katherine’s mayor had earlier called for military help, with ADF personnel already volunteering in the community. (abc.net.au)
- Angus Taylor faces scrutiny over wealth holdings and opposition leadership approach — Angus Taylor’s extensive property holdings and family trusts came under examination, while his immigration rhetoric and positioning against One Nation drew political commentary. Taylor’s wealth stems from four generations of farming in the Snowy Mountains region. (smh.com.au)
Notes
Notes
Australia deploys military assets to Middle East amid Iran conflict, government endorses US-Israel strikes
March 8–13, 2026
RBA expected to raise interest rates in March as inflation concerns mount amid oil price surge
March 9–15, 2026
Prime Minister Albanese criticized for joining NRL field invasion at Rabbitohs game
March 13–14, 2026
US launches forced labor trade investigation including Australia among 60 countries
March 12–13, 2026
Angus Taylor faces scrutiny over wealth holdings and opposition leadership approach
February 24 – March 13, 2026
Other
Taiwan
Cho Jung-tai became the first Taiwanese premier to visit Japan in 52 years, attending a baseball game in Tokyo and deepening ties despite Beijing’s fury.
No premier had visited since 1972, when Japan severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan. China’s foreign ministry condemned the visit as “evil designs” and separatist provocations, while Taiwan’s opposition questioned the NT$2.14 million cost. Mr Cho defended it as a private trip he paid for himself. The visit signals Japan and Taiwan are moving beyond economic and security cooperation toward normal diplomatic relations.
At home, Taiwan’s opposition parties plan to fight the ruling party together. The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party announced formal cooperation for November’s local elections and the 2028 presidential race. Cheng Li-wun, the KMT chairwoman, and Huang Kuo-chang, the TPP chairman, outlined shared policies on housing, wages, the birth rate, artificial intelligence and climate change. They will pick candidates together, probably using opinion polls to decide who runs where.
Parliament unanimously authorised the government to sign four US arms packages worth $9 billion. The deals include TOW anti-tank missiles, M109A7 howitzers, Javelin missiles and HIMARS rocket systems. Wellington Koo, the defence minister, denied reports that deliveries of MQ-9B drones would be delayed, saying they remain on schedule for the second half of this year. He also said America had not asked Taiwan to transfer weapons to the Middle East.
TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, reported record February revenue of NT$318 billion, up 22% from a year earlier, driven by demand for AI chips. The company captured nearly 70% of the global foundry market in 2025, up from 64% the year before. Sales for the first two months reached NT$719 billion, up 30% from the previous year.
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- President Lai Ching-te faces Beijing criticism over democracy-sovereignty remarks — Lai Ching-te, the president, linked democracy with sovereignty in speeches, prompting sharp criticism from Beijing. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office rejected his remarks as misleading, while mainland officials accused him of making secessionist statements and stirring cross-strait confrontation. (news.cgtn.com)
- Taiwan defense minister addresses US arms deliveries and drone procurement — Wellington Koo, the defence minister, addressed several weapons procurement issues, denying delays in MQ-9B drone deliveries and confirming receipt of US letters for HIMARS purchases. Taiwan’s parliament also authorised $9 billion in US arms deals, while Mr Koo stated the US has not approached Taiwan about weapons transfers to the Middle East. (focustaiwan.tw)
- Taiwan detects Chinese military vessels and aircraft around territory — Taiwan’s defence ministry detected multiple Chinese navy vessels and aircraft operating around Taiwan’s territory over several days in March. Taiwan detected 5-8 naval vessels and aircraft, with some crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. (newsable.asianetnews.com)
- Taiwan shares open lower amid market volatility — Taiwan’s stock market opened down 366 points on Friday, with the main index affected by domestic political developments and global economic conditions. (focustaiwan.tw)
- Former National Security Bureau officer’s prison sentence upheld for leaking classified information — Taiwan’s Supreme Court upheld a four-year prison sentence for a former National Security Bureau officer who leaked classified information while seeking employment in China. The officer was responsible for decrypting electronic cipher machines. (focustaiwan.tw)
Notes
Notes
Premier Cho Jung-tai's controversial Japan visit for World Baseball Classic sparks cross-strait tensions
March 9–15, 2026
Former National Security Bureau officer's prison sentence upheld for leaking classified information
March 13, 2026
Other
Japan
Japan became the first G7 nation to release oil reserves on its own during the Iran crisis, breaking from its usual preference for multilateral coordination to take the lead in global energy markets.
Sanae Takaichi, the prime minister, announced the release of 15 days of private reserves plus one month from state stockpiles without waiting for G7 partners, capping petrol prices at 170 yen per litre. The move signals new confidence in independent economic action when alliance coordination proves too slow, even as Ms Takaichi prepares for a four-day Washington visit next week to meet Donald Trump on Iran and other regional issues.
Japan also kept building military capabilities that give it more room for independent action. It deployed Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles with 1,000-kilometre range near the East China Sea, allowing coverage of almost the entire sea from Kyushu and reaching coastal cities in mainland China. At the National Defence Academy, Ms Takaichi pledged to “drastically strengthen defence capabilities without excluding any option,” using her electoral mandate for constitutional revision and defence expansion.
Even as Japan acts more independently, it maintains close coordination with neighbours when needed. Ms Takaichi thanked South Korea for transporting three Japanese nationals from Saudi Arabia on military aircraft, calling it “bilateral cooperation to protect citizens in third countries.”
Domestically, Ms Takaichi’s approval rating fell 4.5 percentage points to 59.3% in March, the lowest since she took office in October, following her distribution of gift catalogues to Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers. But the rating remains high, and she showed tactical flexibility by retaining Yohei Matsumoto, the education minister, despite reports of an extramarital affair, saying she wants him to “repay us through work” and emphasising his specialist qualifications.
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- Emperor Naruhito and family attend baseball game, plan Europe visit — Emperor Naruhito, Empress Masako and Princess Aiko attended Japan’s World Baseball Classic game against Australia, marking the first time a sitting Japanese monarch has attended a professional baseball game since 1966. The imperial couple is also preparing to visit the Netherlands and Belgium in June. (japantimes.co.jp)
- Takaichi states Iran conflict not ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan — The prime minister said the Iran war does not constitute a ‘survival-threatening situation’ under Japan’s security legislation, a designation that would allow Self-Defence Forces deployment. She also said Japan has no plans to send minesweepers to the Middle East. (japantimes.co.jp)
- Japan marks 15th anniversary of tsunami disaster as Takaichi promotes nuclear energy — Japan marked the 15th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. Ms Takaichi attended a ceremony in Fukushima and has pushed to accelerate reactor restarts and promote nuclear power as a stable energy source. (japan.kantei.go.jp)
- US military movements affect Japan-based forces amid Middle East deployment — Reports indicate the US is moving parts of THAAD anti-missile system from South Korea to the Middle East, while Japan-based Marine expeditionary units are being deployed to the Middle East conflict. These movements are reducing US military assets in the Indo-Pacific region. (bbc.com)
- G7 nations coordinate on potential emergency oil reserves release — G7 finance and energy ministers held multiple meetings to discuss coordinated release of strategic oil reserves amid surging crude prices. While initially hesitant, the group expressed readiness to take ‘necessary measures’ and announced support for potential joint action with the IEA. (reuters.com)
Notes
Notes
Takaichi prepares for high-stakes Washington visit to meet Trump amid health concerns
March 11–14, 2026
Other
Indonesia
Prabowo Subianto called the American-Israeli military campaign against Iran ‘irrational’ and offered to negotiate peace, his sharpest criticism of US policy since taking office.
The president said he was ‘surprised’ by the bombing strategy and questioned whether it could achieve regime change. He offered Indonesia as a neutral mediator through its conditional membership in the Board of Peace. Mr Prabowo said the criticism followed Indonesia’s ‘free and active’ foreign policy tradition, but the language was direct for a country that has carefully managed relations with Washington.
Even as he criticised American strategy abroad, Mr Prabowo tightened control at home. Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the vice-president, met a researcher who had claimed that former president Joko Widodo’s university diplomas were fake. Rismon Sianipar apologised and said his research showed the diplomas were authentic, promising to write a book correcting his previous findings. The meeting showed how the government converts critics into supporters.
Mr Prabowo attacked analysts he described as ‘unpatriotic’ and ‘paranoid’ about government success. The opposition research group Celios warned this threatened democratic discourse, but the president’s criticism fits a pattern of undermining civil society critics.
Mr Prabowo claimed the Danantara sovereign wealth fund had achieved a 300% return in its first year while announcing plans to spend up to $1bn on subsidised housing. The fund is expanding from resource extraction into property development, targeting 140,000 apartment units in the Meikarta project. Separately, four Pertamina oil tankers were caught up in Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though two left the Persian Gulf.
The military responded to the Middle East crisis. General Agus Subiyanto, the armed forces commander, ordered Alert Level 1 for all units, including increased patrols at strategic sites and readiness checks. Officials called it standard preparation.
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- Bank Indonesia announces operational schedule for Lebaran holidays — Bank Indonesia set its operational schedule for the Lebaran holiday period from March 18-24, 2026, suspending most services while keeping BI-FAST payment system running. The bank also provided currency exchange services for the holiday through its SERAMBI program. (antaranews.com)
- Prabowo considers work-from-home and four-day work week to save fuel — President Prabowo instructed his cabinet to prepare options for work-from-home policies and shortened work weeks to reduce fuel consumption amid global energy price concerns from the Middle East conflict. (economy.okezone.com)
- Golkar party addresses corruption issues and political developments — Golkar party officials commented on recent arrests of regional leaders by anti-corruption commission KPK, calling for reflection on high political costs. The party also discussed parliamentary threshold proposals and internal organizational matters. (detik.com)
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Notes
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