Regional Summary
The Sovereignty Reflex Across the Americas this week, governments clashed with Washington — but the real story is how they are now shaping domestic politics more than foreign policy. From Ottawa to Mexico City to Brasília, leaders are discovering that standing up to the United States wins votes, consolidates coalitions and justifies spending that might otherwise face scrutiny. Sovereignty has become less a principle than a political instrument, and the leaders wielding it most boldly are the ones with the most to gain at home. Mark Carney’s pledge to defend Greenland “however necessary” against American pressure is the sharpest example. The Canadian prime minister’s promise is striking not for its military weight — Canada lacks the means to do much about Greenland on its own — but for what it does for Mr Carney at home. His government sits two seats short of a majority, and his muscular posture on sovereignty has already lured a fourth opposition MP into the Liberal caucus, this time from the northern riding of Nunavut, where Arctic defence spending lands directly. The $35 billion announced for northern military bases sounds formidable, but $32 billion was already earmarked under the previous government. The repackaging is the point: in a country rattled by tariffs and presidential insults, the appearance of defiance matters more than the substance of new spending. José Antonio Kast, Chile’s new president, demonstrates that the sovereignty reflex can work in the opposite direction. Rather than distancing himself from Washington, Mr Kast signed a minerals agreement with the United States on his first full day in office, framing alignment with American interests as an assertion of Chilean independence after years of left-wing governance. The deal on rare earths and supply chains is thin on detail, but its political purpose was unmistakable: it told both his base and his opponents that Chile’s rightward shift would be fast and transactional. His approval ratings, above 50%, give him room to move. Yet the same week brought reminders of the institutional rot he inherits — a police officer shot dead responding to a drunk and disorderly call, and plainclothes officers killing a man who mistook them for robbers — suggesting that governing will be harder than signalling. Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, both face the less comfortable version of this dynamic: sovereignty rhetoric that buys time but cannot paper over domestic fractures. Ms Sheinbaum’s retort to Donald Trump — that Mexico’s sovereignty is “non-negotiable” — played well with voters, yet the same week her own coalition allies handed her a first legislative defeat by blocking electoral reform, the clearest crack in the ruling alliance since 2018. In Brazil, Mr Lula revoked the visa of a Trump adviser who tried to visit Jair Bolsonaro in prison, casting the move as a defence of national dignity. But polls show him tied at 41% with Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical run-off, his approval rating sinking, and 19 of his 38 ministers about to leave the cabinet to run for office. The visa spat distracted nicely from a 38-centavo diesel price rise that forced him to offer subsidies. Incumbents and newcomers alike are converting external pressure from Washington — whether through tariffs, military posturing or diplomatic meddling — into domestic political capital. The conversion is often efficient: it rallies bases, justifies spending, and forces opponents into uncomfortable positions. But it is also depreciating. Each act of defiance must be louder than the last to register, while the underlying problems — fragile coalitions, split voters, institutional decay, commodity-price shocks — remain stubbornly unresolved. Sovereignty is a renewable rhetorical resource; the political credit it buys is not.Country Summaries
Canada
Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, promised to defend Greenland against American threats “however necessary,” the strongest rejection of US leadership since the trade war began.
At a summit in Oslo with five Nordic countries and Germany, Mr Carney said his country stands “four square behind the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity” regarding Greenland. Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, thanked Mr Carney for helping Denmark withstand “totally unacceptable pressure” from the Trump administration. The leaders issued a joint statement on closer defence cooperation.
The Greenland commitment shows a broader pattern of Canadian defiance. Mr Carney also rejected the Trump administration’s decision to ease Russian oil sanctions, saying Canada will keep its sanctions and join European leaders in opposing the US move. Chrystia Freeland, a former Liberal minister, called the American decision “effectively writing a cheque to Putin.” Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor, noted that six of seven G7 members opposed the US move.
Even as Canada distances itself from Washington, Mr Carney is consolidating power at home. Lori Idlout, an NDP MP from Nunavut, became the fourth opposition member to join the Liberal caucus since November, bringing the government to 170 seats — just two short of a majority. Ms Idlout cited the need for a “strong and ambitious government” on northern sovereignty issues. Three byelections in Toronto-area ridings on April 13 could deliver that majority.
The government is also boosting security. Mélanie Joly, the industry minister, announced over $900 million through the National Research Council for defence innovation, including drone technologies, quantum applications, and biomedical countermeasures. Separately, Ottawa introduced legislation giving police and CSIS more powers to track suspects online and obtain telecommunications data from foreign social media companies.
Mr Carney announced $35 billion for northern defence and infrastructure, including military bases in Yellowknife, Inuvik, and Iqaluit. But roughly $32 billion comes from existing NORAD modernisation funds set aside by the Trudeau government rather than new spending.
Economic policy faces outside pressures. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25 per cent when it meets on March 18, as oil prices have risen more than 40 per cent since the Iran war began. Unemployment rose to 6.7 per cent in February, with 84,000 job losses. Economists expect tougher talk from the central bank about rate increases if oil prices stay high.
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- Poilievre announces auto industry plan during US trip — Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, unveiled a plan for a tariff-free auto pact with the United States during a visit to Michigan and Windsor, proposing to remove GST on Canadian-made cars and eliminate tariffs on Canadian vehicle sales to the US. The plan aims to double domestic vehicle production. (ctvnews.ca)
- Trump repeatedly calls Carney ‘future Governor of Canada’ — Donald Trump, the US president, has repeatedly referred to Mark Carney as the ‘future Governor of Canada’ in social media posts and statements, continuing his pattern of provocative remarks about Canadian sovereignty and potential US annexation. (ctvnews.ca)
- High approval ratings and Liberal polling gains under Carney leadership — Multiple polls show Mr Carney maintaining historically high approval ratings with the Liberal Party leading the Conservatives by significant margins. Polling shows 57% of Canadians choose Mr Carney as best PM choice, with the Liberals at 46% nationally versus 35% for Conservatives. (thewalrus.ca)
- NDP leadership race underway as voting begins — Voting has begun in the federal NDP leadership race with five candidates competing to replace Jagmeet Singh. Avi Lewis leads in fundraising with over $1.2 million raised, while about 100,000 party members are eligible to vote. The winner will be announced March 29. (cbc.ca)
- CSIS assesses Iran threat level, new lawful access bill introduced — The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) says the threat level from Iran remains at ‘medium’ following the start of the Iran war. Separately, the Liberal government introduced new lawful access legislation giving police and the agency enhanced powers to track suspects online and obtain telecommunications data. (ctvnews.ca)
Notes
Notes
Carney visits Norway for NATO exercises, meets Nordic leaders on Arctic security
February 11–25, 2026
Carney announces \$35B investment in Arctic defense and Northern infrastructure
February 18 – March 06, 2026
Multiple MPs cross floor to Liberals as Carney approaches parliamentary majority
February 18 – March 11, 2026
Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates amid Iran war uncertainty
February 18 – March 11, 2026
Other
Chile
José Antonio Kast signed a minerals agreement with the United States on his first full day as Chile’s president, making good on his pro-American campaign promises.
The deal creates consultations on rare earths and supply chains vital to Washington’s rivalry with China. Opposition parties questioned what this means for Chilean control over strategic resources, but for Mr Kast the timing sent a clear message: his inauguration on March 11 marked not just a change of government but Chile’s sharpest rightward shift since the return to democracy, and he intends to act on it.
The ceremony completed what many thought impossible years ago — a peaceful transfer of power from Gabriel Boric’s left-wing government to far-right leadership. Dozens of heads of state attended as Mr Kast promised an “emergency government” focused on security and immigration. The handover proceeded smoothly despite a breakdown in transition rules earlier this year, when the outgoing administration refused to cooperate fully with Mr Kast’s team.
Mr Kast followed the American agreement with a domestic agenda. His National Reconstruction plan cuts corporate taxes from 27% to 23%, scraps property taxes for seniors on first homes, and restricts university fee waivers to students under 30. He unveiled the $400 billion peso package from Chile’s fire-hit Biobío region to show his government’s focus on crisis response.
Early polling suggests Mr Kast has the political capital to push through much of his agenda. His approval ratings range from 47.5% to 57%, higher than most previous presidents when they took office. But the numbers show the constraints: 34% already disapprove, reflecting the deep polarisation that brought him to power. Support for his “emergency government” concept polls at 58%.
Two incidents during transition week showed the institutional problems he inherits. A Carabineros sergeant was shot in the head while responding to reports of public drinking in Puerto Varas. He was declared brain dead. In a separate incident, plainclothes police killed a 26-year-old man during a traffic stop in San Bernardo after he fled, thinking the unmarked officers were robbers. Both cases showed persistent problems with police procedures and use of force.
The Central Bank showed its independence by authorising nearly $1 billion in gold purchases for the first time since 1997. The decision reflects a global trend among central banks to buy more varied assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, showing that monetary policy will run on its own track despite Mr Kast’s political changes.
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- Gabriel Boric departs presidency, hands power to Kast after four years in office — President Gabriel Boric completed his four-year term and officially handed power to José Antonio Kast on March 11. In his final days, Boric defended his record while acknowledging mistakes, met with his cabinet for farewell activities, and emphasized an ‘impeccable transfer of power.’ (abc.es)
Notes
Notes
Police officer shot in head in Puerto Varas, declared brain dead after attack during patrol
March 11–14, 2026
Chile signs declaration with US on critical minerals cooperation amid growing Trump alignment
March 11–13, 2026
Other
Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum suffered her first legislative defeat when her own coalition allies blocked electoral reform in Congress, marking the most serious fracture in the ruling alliance since 2018.
The reform failed to win the required supermajority, getting just 259 votes against 234. The Labour Party (PT) and Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM), which normally back the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), voted with the opposition. This was the first time since Andrés Manuel López Obrador took power that allied parties had rejected a constitutional amendment. Ms Sheinbaum announced a “Plan B” package, though how she will navigate the coalition split is unclear.
The defeat caps weeks of tension within the alliance over the changes. But the fracture appears limited to this issue — other parts of government continue working. Ms Sheinbaum’s transparency push continues, with the Anticorruption Secretariat publishing pension details for 98,055 recipients from state companies including Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). Some former officials collect over 1 million pesos monthly, with the highest Pemex pension reaching 1.1 million pesos.
On security, Omar García Harfuch, the security chief, has become a hero after the operation against El Mencho, a cartel leader. The two-hour operation using ground and air forces has sparked a merchandise craze — dolls, blankets and action figures of the security chief now sell in Mexican markets. Early polls show him leading potential candidates for the 2030 presidency, with an 81% approval rating.
Ms Sheinbaum handled a clash with Donald Trump over US military intervention against cartels. Mr Trump posted on Truth Social that “cartels control Mexico” and criticised her for rejecting American military help. She responded that Mexico cooperates with the US on security but national sovereignty is “non-negotiable,” adding the president was “not well informed” about existing cooperation.
Economic engagement continues. Ms Sheinbaum received over 80 Nordic business executives at the National Palace, including representatives from ABB, Ericsson, Maersk, Nokia and Volvo. The Wallenberg Group delegation expressed investment interest after several days of meetings with cabinet officials.
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- Trump-Sheinbaum clash over US military intervention proposals against cartels — Donald Trump criticized Claudia Sheinbaum for rejecting US military assistance against Mexican cartels, posting on Truth Social that cartels control Mexico. Ms Sheinbaum responded that Mexico maintains security cooperation with the US but national sovereignty is non-negotiable. (jornada.com.mx)
- Pemex contractor’s lavish XV años party with Belinda and J Balvin sparks corruption concerns — Juan Carlos Guerrero Rojas, a Pemex contractor with over 4 billion pesos in contracts, organized an extravagant quinceañera party featuring celebrities Belinda and J Balvin. The estimated 45 million peso celebration highlighted wealth disparities and raised questions about contractor relationships with the state oil company. (eluniversal.com.mx)
- Oil spill affects Veracruz and Tabasco coasts; government coordinates cleanup response — Hydrocarbon residues appeared on beaches in southern Veracruz and parts of Tabasco. The federal government coordinates cleanup efforts through the Naval Secretariat (SEMAR), Pemex, and the Environment Secretariat (Semarnat). Governor Nahle reported the spill originated from a private vessel near Sánchez Magallanes, not Pemex operations. (jornada.com.mx)
- Sheinbaum confirms likely Brazil visit before June following Lula invitation — Claudia Sheinbaum said it’s ‘very probable’ she will visit Brazil before June 2026, responding to multiple invitations from Lula da Silva. She indicated the visit would occur before Brazil’s electoral campaign period begins. (proceso.com.mx)
Notes
Notes
Electoral reform defeated as PT and PVEM break with Morena; Sheinbaum announces Plan B
March 11, 2026
García Harfuch gains popularity following El Mencho operation; spawns merchandise craze
March 13, 2026
Government reveals millionaire pensions in state enterprises; some exceed presidential salary
March 13–14, 2026
Pemex contractor's lavish XV años party with Belinda and J Balvin sparks corruption concerns
March 08, 2026
Oil spill affects Veracruz and Tabasco coasts; government coordinates cleanup response
March 12–13, 2026
Other
Brazil
Brazil’s next presidential race has become a dead heat between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president now in intensive care.
Polls show Mr Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in runoff contests, with the younger Bolsonaro gaining three points above the margin of error. Government approval has fallen to 31% positive against 43% negative. Four polling institutes found these results, confirming that two years of Mr Lula’s third presidency have failed to break the country’s split.
The deadlock has grown more intense as Jair Bolsonaro, serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, went to hospital with his worst case of pneumonia. His son demanded the former president be moved to house arrest, claiming “they are playing with my father’s life.” The health crisis adds a new factor to an unstable succession battle within the Bolsonaro movement.
Mr Lula is losing key ministers to next year’s campaigns. Fernando Haddad, the finance minister, confirmed he will leave to challenge the governor of São Paulo. He is leaving because the president asked him to and represents the biggest change — 19 of 38 ministers will quit by April to run for office.
Brazil’s relationship with Washington has grown testier. The Trump administration is pressing Brazil to label the First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command crime syndicates as terrorist groups. Brazil sees this as meddling in internal matters. When Darren Beattie, a Trump adviser, sought to visit Mr Bolsonaro in prison, the foreign ministry revoked his visa for lying about the trip’s purpose. Mr Lula linked the move to American treatment of a Brazilian minister’s family visa applications.
The government moved quickly to cushion Brazilians from a surge in oil prices driven by Middle East conflicts. When Petrobras raised diesel prices by 38 centavos per litre — the first increase in 311 days — the government imposed subsidies of 32 centavos per litre and zeroed federal taxes, nearly offsetting the rise for consumers. The response showed how the state continues to manage economic pressures from abroad by intervening.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Supreme Court faces a crisis of confidence. Public distrust has reached a record 43%, up from 38% in December, driven by the Master Bank scandal linking several justices to banker Daniel Vorcaro. The court remains internally divided with no clear plan to resolve the crisis.
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- Master Bank scandal creates crisis of confidence in Supreme Court — The banking scandal involving Master Bank and its connections to Supreme Court justices has created an institutional crisis and divided the court. Multiple investigations revealed relationships between justices and banker Daniel Vorcaro, leading to recusals and internal tensions within the court. Public trust in the Supreme Court reached new lows according to polling. (em.com.br)
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