Regional Summary
The Price of Shelter The war with Iran is revealing which Middle Eastern and South Asian governments can absorb punishment and which are postponing its consequences. Across the region this week, states took hits to oil infrastructure, airspace and budgets, yet responded not with panic but with a rush of deal-making, austerity and repression. The pattern looks like resilience. It is actually opportunism: regimes using external crisis to accelerate existing domestic agendas—centralising power, disciplining spending and silencing opposition—while hoping the international order holds together long enough for the bills to come due elsewhere. Saudi Arabia shows how to convert strategic vulnerability into planned change. Aramco’s 12% profit drop and its first-ever share buyback signal real fiscal strain. Yet Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, has used the moment to do what peacetime politics made difficult. He shelved NEOM’s most absurd ambitions in favour of data centres and industrial zones. He locked Pakistan into a mutual-defence pact that gives the kingdom military options beyond Washington. At a French fair, investors pledged $3.8 billion in fresh property investment, suggesting foreign capital still trusts the Saudi trajectory—or at least fears missing out on it. The crown prince’s domestic calendar, from arts universities to Vision 2030 anniversaries, proceeded without interruption, projecting a normality that is itself a political act. Pakistan is discovering that crisis on multiple fronts leaves no room for pretence. General Asim Munir’s government is backing Riyadh, bombing Taliban positions in Kandahar and imposing austerity measures—school closures, salary cuts of up to 30%, a four-day working week—that no elected government could survive without serious unrest. The State Bank held its policy rate steady, but the decision to allow emergency crude-import procedures for 60 days amounted to an admission that normal economic governance had been suspended. Imran Khan’s party is already threatening a nationwide movement, sensing that war-driven hardship could do what courtroom battles could not. Pakistan is not adapting to crisis so much as being reshaped by it, with the military tightening its grip on both foreign and economic policy under cover of emergency. Turkey and India show how middle powers exploit the fog of regional war for domestic ends. In Ankara, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan positioned himself as indispensable mediator—Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, shuttled between Iranian and Western interlocutors—while the judiciary opened the largest corruption trial in Turkish history, aimed at eliminating the opposition’s leadership. The central bank held rates at a punishing 37%, daring inflation to blink first. The message was unmistakable: orthodoxy at home, diplomacy abroad, repression where convenient. Narendra Modi turned a phone call with Iran’s president into a tangible win—safe passage for liquefied petroleum gas tankers—then used the energy crisis against Congress on the campaign trail, calling opponents “puppets of anti-India forces.” Emergency fuel regulations and ₹42,000 crore in infrastructure launches served the dual purpose of crisis management and electoral stagecraft ahead of state elections. The United Arab Emirates proved the point. Iran struck the Ruwais refinery complex—922,000 barrels a day, the backbone of Abu Dhabi’s downstream economy—and the Emirates responded not with escalation but with a rush of institution-building: an Australian military deployment secured within days, diplomatic calls to a dozen capitals, a sovereign wealth fund property venture with a French partner, and an award for artificial intelligence-driven financial surveillance, all while the attorney-general arrested 25 people for spreading panic online. The government even folded Emirati Children’s Day into its crisis messaging, telling families their children were safe. Every gesture carried a second meaning: reassurance doubled as control. War does not simply test these governments—it offers them cover. Each of these states used Iranian aggression to justify measures—austerity, repression, military centralisation, diplomatic realignment—that would have drawn sharper scrutiny in peacetime. The danger is that the crisis becomes self-sustaining: regimes grow comfortable with emergency powers, populations grow accustomed to diminished expectations, and the question of whether the adaptation was wise gets deferred until the shooting stops. Resilience, in this region and this moment, is often just another word for opportunism. Headline: Opportunity Knocks, Disguised as a MissileCountry Summaries
Saudi Arabia
Iranian attacks have cut deep into Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues, but the kingdom is adapting rather than collapsing.
Saudi Aramco reported $104.7 billion in profits for 2025, down 12% from the year before. The state oil giant has been forced to cut production and reroute exports through the Red Sea pipeline as Iranian strikes disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Amin Nasser, the chief executive, warned of “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets if the crisis continues. The company announced its first-ever share buyback worth $3 billion, a sign of financial stress and an attempt to shore up investor confidence.
Yet private money keeps flowing into the kingdom’s transformation projects. King Salman Park secured $3.8 billion in new commitments at a property fair in France this month, bringing total pledged investment to over $5 billion. The project won backing from international developers for a metro-linked district and cultural neighbourhood, suggesting that outside investors still believe in Saudi Arabia’s economic pivot despite the regional chaos.
That pivot is becoming more realistic. Saudi Arabia has quietly scaled back the most fantastical element of NEOM — the 170-kilometre linear city — and is focusing instead on AI data centres and industrial development. Rising construction costs played a part, but the shift also reflects Mohammed bin Salman’s move away from megaproject dreams towards commercially viable infrastructure.
The security pressure is relentless. Saudi forces intercepted over 250 Iranian drones and missiles this week alone, targeting oil facilities, air bases and diplomatic sites. Major General Turki Al-Maliki confirmed successful intercepts at Prince Sultan Air Base and the Shaybah oilfield. The kingdom’s defences are holding, but the scale of attacks shows the strain on Saudi military systems.
Mr bin Salman is responding by expanding his security partnerships beyond traditional American guarantees. Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir met Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi defence minister, to activate their mutual defence pact signed last September. Both men discussed ways to halt Iranian attacks under the pact — the first operational test of Saudi Arabia’s push for other security deals. Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister, meanwhile coordinated with Marco Rubio and other Western counterparts, showing the kingdom is working several diplomatic channels.
Through it all, the domestic machinery runs smoothly. Saudi media marked nine years since Mr bin Salman became crown prince, highlighting Vision 2030 reforms. King Salman established a new arts university in Riyadh. These routine activities suggest the external pressure has not created internal stress or weakened the government’s ability to function.
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- Aramco warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ as Iran war disrupts global oil markets — Saudi Aramco’s chief executive warned of catastrophic impacts on global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues, as the company reported 12% drop in 2025 profits to $104.7 billion and announced its first-ever $3 billion share buyback. The company has been forced to cut production and reroute exports via Red Sea pipeline. (oilprice.com)
- King Salman Park secures $3.8 billion in private investment commitments — King Salman Park Foundation announced over $3.8 billion in new private-sector commitments at MIPIM 2026, including a $3 billion fund for mixed-use development. Retal Urban Development won an $852 million contract for the Cultural Neighbourhood project, bringing total committed investment to over $5 billion. (prnewswire.com)
- King Salman establishes Riyadh University of Arts — King Salman issued a royal order approving the establishment of the Riyadh University of Arts. The initiative underscores the Kingdom’s commitment to bolstering its position as a regional cultural hub and fostering growth of its creative industries under Vision 2030. (saudigazette.com.sa)
Notes
Notes
Saudi Foreign Minister conducts intensive crisis diplomacy amid regional escalation
March 11–12, 2026
Mohammed bin Salman marks nine years as Crown Prince with reform achievements highlighted
March 15, 2026
Other
Pakistan
Pakistan lurched between crises this week as the Iran war pulled it deeper into Saudi Arabia’s orbit while fighting with Afghanistan escalated into what Asif Ali Zardari, the president, called “open war.” Field Marshal Asim Munir’s military regime is managing three fronts at once — backing Saudi Arabia through diplomacy, bombing Taliban positions across the western border, and cutting spending at home because of spiking oil prices.
The Iran war has activated Pakistan’s defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, met Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, in a restricted session, pledging Pakistan’s full support during what he called “challenging times.” Field Marshal Munir and Ishaq Dar, the deputy prime minister, accompanied Mr Sharif. Pakistan positioned itself as a “bridge builder” advocating dialogue to end the war.
Even as it courted Saudi Arabia, Pakistan abandoned diplomacy on its western border. Mr Zardari declared the Taliban had “crossed a red line” with drone attacks on Pakistani civilians. Pakistan hit back with airstrikes on drone storage facilities and military installations in Afghanistan’s Kandahar province. Both sides accused each other of targeting civilians, with dozens killed in cross-border attacks.
The crisis forced tough choices at home. The government cut spending across the board — closing schools, cutting salaries up to 30% in state firms, and moving to a four-day work week because of oil price spikes. The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate unchanged at 10.5% amid uncertainty about the war, though foreign reserves increased by $41 million to $16.34 billion. The central bank authorised special crude oil import arrangements for 60 days, abandoning normal procedures.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) threatened to launch a nationwide movement for Imran Khan’s release amid health concerns. The Islamabad High Court ordered the formation of a medical board to evaluate his condition. The opposition pressure comes as the government faces austerity measures that may fuel popular discontent.
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- Pakistan navigates Iran war crisis through Saudi alignment and domestic austerity — Pakistan responded to the Iran war with diplomacy, pledging full support to Saudi Arabia through meetings between Mr Sharif and the crown prince, while Field Marshal Munir coordinated defence cooperation. Domestically, the government imposed sweeping austerity measures including school closures, salary cuts, and a four-day work week to cope with oil price spikes. (livemint.com)
- PTI escalates pressure over Imran Khan’s health and hospital transfer — PTI warned of a nationwide movement for Imran Khan’s release amid growing concerns over his health in prison. The Islamabad High Court ordered formation of a medical board to evaluate his condition after PTI demanded his transfer to Shifa International Hospital for proper medical treatment. (geo.tv)
- PML-N’s Nehal Hashmi appointed as new Sindh governor — President Zardari approved the appointment of PML-N leader Nehal Hashmi as Sindh governor, replacing MQM-P-backed Kamran Tessori. The move sparked criticism from MQM-P, which claimed it wasn’t consulted on the decision that ended the party’s long-standing hold on the governor’s position. (geo.tv)
- Pakistan launches 5G spectrum auction marking digital transformation milestone — Pakistan kicked off its largest-ever spectrum auction in Islamabad with three telecom companies bidding for 600 MHz of 5G spectrum. IT Minister Shaza Fatima called it a technology revolution aligned with PM Shehbaz Sharif’s Digital Nation Pakistan vision. (phoneworld.com.pk)
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Turkey
Turkey opened the largest corruption trial in its history this week, with Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, and over 400 defendants facing charges that could eliminate the main opposition party’s leadership. The judge refused to let Mr İmamoğlu address the court, and 106 defendants are already in prison.
While the regime pressed ahead with what Human Rights Watch called the culmination of a 17-month campaign against the opposition, Turkey positioned itself as the key mediator in the Iran crisis. Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, conducted diplomacy with Iranian counterparts, insisting no serious US-Iran negotiations were under way but that Iran remained open to back-channel talks. He warned against plans to provoke Iranian civil war and said Turkey would stay out of regional escalation.
The crisis reached Turkish airspace twice when Iranian ballistic missiles crossed into the country and were intercepted by NATO systems. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called his Iranian counterpart to insist that airspace violations were unacceptable, though Iran denied the missiles were theirs. Mr Fidan met his Iranian counterpart for damage control.
Turkey’s coalition partner signalled limits to regional engagement. Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the nationalist MHP, declared that “Kurdish brothers will not engage in mercenary activities for any foreign power” and criticised plans to use Kurdish forces against Iran. The message was clear: Turkey would broker but not provide proxies.
Meanwhile, orthodox economic policies held firm despite regional pressure. The central bank kept interest rates at 37%, citing the geopolitical turmoil and its potential impact on inflation. Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister, acknowledged that energy price fluctuations might push the current account deficit above projections but insisted the shocks were temporary and Turkey’s macroeconomic foundations were sound.
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- Iran missile incidents prompt Turkish diplomatic response and NATO defence coordination — Iranian ballistic missiles crossed into Turkish airspace twice and were intercepted by NATO systems. Mr Erdoğan held phone calls with Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, with Iran denying the missiles were theirs while Turkey insisted airspace violations were unacceptable. (bloomberght.com)
- İmamoğlu’s corruption trial begins with courtroom tensions — The corruption trial of Mr İmamoğlu started with 402 defendants including 107 in detention. The trial featured heated exchanges between Mr İmamoğlu and the judge, with prosecutors seeking up to 2,352 years in prison for him. (nytimes.com)
- Fidan conducts intensive diplomacy on regional conflicts — Mr Fidan held multiple meetings and phone calls with counterparts from Iran, Germany, Bangladesh, Qatar, Azerbaijan and others, discussing regional tensions. He warned against civil war scenarios in Iran and emphasised Turkey’s diplomatic role in de-escalating conflicts. (sozcu.com.tr)
- AKP submits omnibus legislation including alcohol sales restrictions — The AKP submitted a bill to parliament covering agricultural land use, with amendments that include new restrictions on alcohol marketing and sales. The proposal also addresses forest cadastration issues and includes various land use regulations. (diken.com.tr)
- CHP operations in opposition municipalities continue with arrests and investigations — Law enforcement conducted operations at CHP-controlled municipalities including Mersin and Manavgat, with arrests for alleged corruption and bid-rigging. Operations continued the pattern of investigations targeting opposition-run local governments. (nefes.com.tr)
Notes
Notes
Iran missile incidents prompt Turkish diplomatic response and NATO defense coordination
February 15 – March 14, 2026
MHP leader Bahçeli warns against regional scenarios, defends Kurdish groups from foreign manipulation
March 10–14, 2026
Foreign Minister Fidan conducts intensive diplomacy on regional conflicts
February 22 – March 12, 2026
Finance Minister Şimşek addresses economic resilience amid energy price volatility
February 22 – March 12, 2026
CHP operations in opposition municipalities continue with arrests and investigations
March 11–12, 2026
Other
India
Narendra Modi called Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, for the first time since the war began, securing safe passage for two LPG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as energy shortages hit 330 million Indian households.
The call with Mr Pezeshkian came as the energy crisis deepened. LPG prices have jumped 60 rupees a cylinder, affecting 3 million businesses that use the fuel. Mr Modi’s government responded with emergency regulations, issuing the Natural Gas Supply Regulation Order 2026 to prioritise domestic gas supplies and allowing businesses to use alternative fuels like kerosene, biomass and coal. The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by the prime minister, met to address Indian community safety and energy disruption. The foreign ministry set up a control room for evacuation operations.
Even as it managed the crisis, India pushed ahead with infrastructure plans. Gautam Adani announced his group would invest ₹2 lakh crore annually over five years in renewable energy, transmission, airports and logistics. Mr Modi launched infrastructure projects worth ₹23,550 crore in Assam alone and unveiled another ₹18,680 crore in development projects in Kolkata.
The energy crisis sharpened domestic political battles. Mr Modi attacked Congress during campaign rallies as “puppets of anti-India forces” over their response to the Middle East conflict. Amit Shah announced the BJP would contest Punjab’s 2027 elections alone, ending speculation about reviving the alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal. In Parliament, the opposition moved a rare no-confidence motion against Om Birla, the Lok Sabha speaker, accusing him of partisan behaviour, but Parliament defeated the motion by voice vote after heated debate.
India’s institutions carried on as usual, with the Election Commission announcing assembly election dates for West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
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- Modi launches infrastructure projects, attacks Congress during campaign rallies across multiple states — Mr Modi launched infrastructure projects worth ₹23,550 crore in Assam’s Silchar, unveiled ₹18,680 crore in development projects in Kolkata, and virtually inaugurated ₹4,570 crore in projects in Kokrajhar. At rallies, he attacked Congress as ‘puppets of anti-India forces’ over their response to the Middle East crisis. (indiatoday.in)
- Parliament rejects no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla after heated debate — Opposition MPs moved a rare no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, accusing him of partisan behaviour. After two days of heated parliamentary debate with Amit Shah defending the Speaker, the motion was defeated by voice vote. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- Election Commission announces assembly poll dates for West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala — The Election Commission announced assembly election dates for four states and one union territory. West Bengal will have elections in two phases in April-May. Political parties across the spectrum welcomed the announcement and began intensifying campaign preparations. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- Adani Total Gas shares surge 40% amid natural gas supply crisis and government regulation — Adani Total Gas shares jumped nearly 40% over several trading sessions after the government issued the Natural Gas Supply Regulation Order 2026 to prioritise domestic gas supplies amid Middle East conflict disruptions. Adani Group also announced plans for ₹2 lakh crore annual infrastructure investments. (bloomberg.com)
- RBI announces Assistant recruitment for 650 posts, launches various financial initiatives — The Reserve Bank of India announced recruitment for 650 Assistant posts with applications closing March 10. RBI also opened an edit window for corrections and launched various other financial sector initiatives including new FCNR strategies to attract dollar inflows and payment aggregator licences. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Notes
Notes
Modi and Jaishankar intensify Iran diplomacy amid West Asia conflict, secure energy transit
March 13–15, 2026
Modi launches infrastructure projects, attacks Congress during campaign rallies across multiple states
March 14, 2026
Amit Shah declares BJP will contest 2027 Punjab polls independently, launches healthcare projects in Assam
March 14–15, 2026
Parliament rejects no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla after heated debate
March 10–15, 2026
Election Commission announces assembly poll dates for West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala
March 15, 2026
RBI announces Assistant recruitment for 650 posts, launches various financial initiatives
March 10–14, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
Iran hit the UAE’s biggest oil refinery this week, forcing it to shut down, but the Emirates secured military help from Australia and rallied diplomatic support across three continents.
A drone attack on ADNOC’s Ruwais complex — which refines 922,000 barrels a day — caused a fire and forced the facility to close. No one was hurt, but the strike marked an escalation. Iran had been hitting military and symbolic targets; now it was going after economic foundations. The complex is not just a refinery but the hub for UAE chemical, fertiliser and industrial gas plants.
The UAE moved quickly to build international support. Mohammed bin Zayed, the president, asked Australia for help, and Canberra agreed to send 85 military personnel, an E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and air-to-air missiles. Australia said the deployment would protect its 24,000 expats in the Emirates and help regional partners defend against Iranian attacks.
Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister, worked the phones. He called officials in Tanzania, Canada, Egypt, Bahrain, Greece, Serbia, Britain and other countries to build condemnation of the Iranian attacks. The calls focused on what he called the “grave consequences” for regional security and backed the UAE’s right to defend itself under international law.
Even as it fought back, the UAE kept doing business. ADIA, the sovereign wealth fund, joined French firm Ardian to launch a real estate investment platform. The Central Bank won an international award for using artificial intelligence to spot financial risks early. Both moves suggested confidence that the country could weather the crisis.
At home, the government tightened its grip on information. The attorney-general ordered the arrest of 25 people for spreading misleading content about the country’s defence measures and cheering on military attacks. Some had posted real footage of the Iranian strikes but added commentary to stir up anxiety. Others had created fake content using AI. A third group had praised Iran’s leaders and military actions.
The regime also tried to project calm. On Emirati Children’s Day, the president told families and teachers to reassure children they were “safe, protected, and live in a country where they can grow up full of confidence.” The message served two purposes: crisis leadership and public reassurance.
The week also brought tragedy unrelated to the Iranian attacks. Two UAE military personnel died when their helicopter crashed after a technical malfunction. Senior officials, including the foreign minister, visited their families, and the government held full military funerals.
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- Iran launches sustained missile and drone attacks on UAE as regional war escalates — Iran has conducted sustained attacks on the UAE using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones since late February, targeting civilian and military infrastructure. UAE air defenses have intercepted most projectiles but some have caused casualties and damage to key facilities including Dubai International Airport and oil infrastructure. (thedispatch.com)
- G42’s China ties and Trump crypto connections raise security concerns — Emirati AI firm G42’s connections to China raised alarms during the Biden administration, and the company is now linked to Trump’s crypto company World Liberty Financial through board appointments. The ties involve national security adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed and highlight complex geopolitical relationships amid technology partnerships. (thedispatch.com)
Notes
Notes
Iran launches sustained missile and drone attacks on UAE as regional war escalates
February 14 – March 15, 2026
Two UAE Armed Forces members killed in helicopter crash due to technical malfunction
March 9–11, 2026
Australia deploys military surveillance aircraft and missiles to UAE for defensive support
March 9–10, 2026
UAE Central Bank wins 'Risk Manager of the Year 2026' award for AI risk management
March 10–15, 2026
Other