Regional Summary
Bold Abroad, Broken at Home Western European governments are making their boldest moves to fill the American gap at the moment their domestic foundations look weakest. That is not a coincidence: external purpose is partly a substitute for internal coherence. But purpose without capacity produces announcements, not outcomes — and the distance between them has rarely looked wider. Germany makes the argument most clearly. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, told a Catholic audience in Würzburg he would not advise his children to live or work in the United States — the bluntest distancing from Washington by a sitting German chancellor since the war. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, was in Kyiv watching live drone operations and announcing a German-Ukrainian joint programme covering ranges from under 100km to 1,500km — a direct answer to Washington’s cancellation of the Tomahawk stationing plan agreed with the previous government. Germany has trained nearly 27,000 Ukrainian soldiers; Mr Pistorius said training will continue after a ceasefire as part of any European security guarantee. The ambition is real. A formal government report submitted to parliament this week called Russia Germany’s “greatest and most direct threat,” and Carsten Breuer, the inspector-general of the Bundeswehr (Germany’s armed forces), told the same Würzburg audience that Russia could be ready to fight the West by 2029. The drone programme is years from producing deployable systems; the Tomahawks would have been there by then. The domestic position is worse. INSA, a German pollster, placed the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 29%, its highest recorded federal figure, seven points ahead of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union combined. Kirill Dmitrijew, a Kremlin envoy and close associate of Vladimir Putin, then commented publicly on the result, calling the AfD “a hope for the Germans” — the first time a named senior Russian official has openly backed an AfD electoral result, a shift from covert meddling to open endorsement. The Kremlin understands the connection between Mr Pistorius’s ambitions and the AfD’s polling better than Berlin’s coalition partners appear to. The problem of governments unable to make decisions shows up most sharply in Italy and Britain. In Rome, Guido Crosetto, the defence minister, disclosed that he had written twice to the treasury demanding a response on €14.9 billion in EU defence financing — and received none. He went public rather than using normal channels, exposing what the coalition had managed quietly for months: Italy cannot afford to rearm within the fiscal limits Lega, its junior coalition partner, will accept. A cabinet council convened after an hour-long summit between Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, and her two deputies lasted seven minutes — long enough to renew existing military missions, not long enough to settle the question. Italy must confirm participation in the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme before the end of May or forfeit the money. In London, the resignation of Wes Streeting, the health secretary, on leadership grounds, an open succession race, and a separate meeting between the UAE foreign minister and Nigel Farage — widely read as treating him as a prime minister-in-waiting — consumed the attention that Keir Starmer, the prime minister, had set aside for his EU reset. Gilt yields rose to their highest since 1998. Spain’s week looked nothing like this. Madrid ran a 170-company business forum in Toronto led by the Economy Ministry, sent Yolanda Díaz, the deputy prime minister, to meet China’s vice president in Beijing, and secured NATO’s designation as host of its Cyber Range capability, with a €160 million contract for a cyber-operations platform and personnel tripling to 1,500 by 2030. Spain’s domestic politics are fractured — the People’s Party fell two seats short of an absolute majority in Andalusia and cannot govern the region without Vox. But the government is governing. France is where the domestic and external tensions converge most dangerously. Emmanuel Macron declared in Nairobi that France had been “overtaken in Africa” over 25 years by Turkey, China, and the United States — a frank admission of competitive defeat — and pledged a break from the patron-client model that defined French Africa policy for a generation. In a subsequent call, Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that France is ready to cooperate with Ukraine on anti-ballistic capabilities, a new domain beyond prior French commitments, though the operational details remain undefined. But Marine Le Pen stated she will run in 2027 even with a suspended sentence, narrowing the conditions under which Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s president, would be the party’s candidate and widening its path to power. A study by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation found 45% of French voters say they could vote for the National Rally. The left outside the National Rally has collapsed: a left primary has been abandoned, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is running alone, and a Mélenchon-versus-National Rally second round — once a worst-case scenario — is now the most likely 2027 outcome. Macron’s Africa declaration is the right diagnosis; his successor is unlikely to share the prescription. Germany’s military planners say Russia will be ready to fight by 2029. The drone programmes, training partnerships, and security commitments assembled this week are meant to deter that. The parties most likely to take power in Germany, France, and Britain before that deadline are precisely those that would unwind those commitments rather than complete them. Western Europe is building a security architecture against a 2029 deadline with governments that may not survive to see it tested.Country Summaries
Germany
At a Catholic convention in Würzburg this week, Friedrich Merz told an audience he would not advise his children to live or work in the United States — the most openly a sitting German chancellor has distanced himself from Washington since the war.
The remark followed the American president’s attack — calling Mr Merz someone who “knows nothing” — after Mr Merz had said Iran was “humiliating” Washington. Both sides called a Friday phone call “good” and cited agreement on Iran and Ukraine. But Richard Grenell, a senior US adviser, kept up his public attacks on Mr Merz after the call, suggesting the rift runs deeper than a single exchange.
The damage is spreading beyond Germany’s relationship with Washington. Three US officials confirmed to the Associated Press that 4,000 troops from the Army’s 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team were no longer heading to Poland — cancelled by Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, in a memo directing the Joint Chiefs of Staff to remove a brigade combat team from Europe. The Germany-specific presidential order triggered the decision, but it reached across the alliance: Don Bacon, a Republican congressman, reported Poland was “blindsided,” even as some US military equipment had already arrived in European ports. What began as friction between Berlin and Washington has become a European security problem.
Even as it quarrelled with Washington, Germany was pushing harder on the alternative it has been building since the US began pulling back. Boris Pistorius, the defense minister, made a surprise visit to Kyiv and command posts in Zaporizhzhia, watching live drone operations. He and Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced joint development and production of drones covering ranges from under 100km to 1,500km — approaching the deterrence range of the Tomahawk missiles Germany can no longer get from Washington. Germany has trained nearly 27,000 Ukrainian soldiers; Mr Pistorius confirmed training will continue after a ceasefire as part of European security guarantees. He called Russia’s peace rhetoric a “deception manoeuvre” and said Moscow was in a “phase of weakness.”
That judgment contrasts with Germany’s own military readiness. Washington has formally cancelled the Tomahawk stationing plan agreed with the Scholz government in 2024. The gap is wider than previously understood: the US had also planned to station SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles and hypersonic weapons, none of which will now arrive. Mr Pistorius acknowledged that an official purchase request submitted 18 months ago has gone unanswered, and admitted he does not hold “too much hope” given that US stockpiles have been depleted by the Iran war. A single unconfirmed report this week — from one low-tier source — suggested Berlin is exploring Turkish missiles as a substitute; no other source has confirmed it. Carsten Breuer, inspector general of the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, told the same Würzburg audience that Russia could be ready to fight the West by 2029. A formal government report submitted to the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, this week designated Russia Germany’s “greatest and most direct threat,” assessed Russian ballistic missiles as capable of striking “virtually all of Europe,” and noted that Russia’s 1.5-million-soldier buildup will be complete this year. The drone partnership with Ukraine is the clearest alternative path Germany has opened, but it is years from producing deployable systems. Germany’s weapons programmes will not close that gap by 2029.
The row with Washington is also doing damage at home — and the main political beneficiary is the force Moscow is now openly cheering. A poll by INSA, a German research firm, placed the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 29%, its highest recorded federal figure, seven points ahead of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), which fell to 22%, a four-year low. The combined CDU/CSU and Social Democratic Party (SPD) total is now 34%, not enough for a working majority. Markus Söder, the CSU leader and coalition partner, warned at Würzburg: “If now another democratic government fails, then we’re going down the Weimar path.” He called the AfD “the worst right-wing organisation in all of Europe.” Kirill Dmitrijew, a Kremlin envoy and confidant of Vladimir Putin, then commented on a post by Alice Weidel, the AfD leader, sharing the polling result and calling the party “a hope for the Germans” — the first time a named senior Russian official has openly backed an AfD electoral result, a shift from covert meddling to open endorsement. The SPD responded by calling the AfD “Putin’s Trojan horse on the continent.”
The AfD’s plans for power are no longer abstract. A leaked 94-page government programme for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern includes a “deportation police,” cultural policy rollbacks, and a plan to cut funding to North German Broadcasting, a regional service. In Saxony-Anhalt, the party’s top candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, confirmed that 150-200 government and administrative positions would be replaced after a win, to stop “current decision-makers blocking the government change from within.” Constitutional lawyers found the programme legal but barely workable. The CDU in Saxony-Anhalt is now openly discussing a minority government tolerated by the Left Party (Die Linke) — an arrangement that would have been politically impossible weeks ago — as the least bad way to keep the AfD from the premiership. The firewall is bending, but it is also adapting.
The coalition took another blow when Mr Merz was booed at the trade union confederation’s congress in Berlin — during passages on pension and health reform. Frank Werneke, head of the United Services Union (Ver.di), said Mr Merz had set up reform commissions “without any participation of the social partners,” a departure from the practice of every chancellor since Kohl. The government conceded a first Chancellery meeting with unions in June. Lars Klingbeil, the finance minister, and Bärbel Bas fared little better at the same event, showing the problem spans both governing parties, not just Mr Merz. The income tax cuts Mr Klingbeil promised “in weeks” at the coalition’s one-year mark have still not been published, leaving a hole in the coalition’s economic pitch to voters.
Germany is pursuing its external ambitions — Ukraine integration, drone co-development, training as a peace guarantee — more actively than at any point in this period. The domestic base for sustaining them has rarely looked weaker. The Kremlin, publicly celebrating the political force most likely to unwind those ambitions, understands the connection even if Berlin’s coalition partners have not yet fully reckoned with it.
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- 104th Catholic Congress in Würzburg draws Merz, Steinmeier and debate on democracy — Germany’s major Catholic convention ran five days in Würzburg, drawing 74,000 attendees and prominent political figures including Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the president (who opened the event and called for civic resilience), Friedrich Merz, the chancellor (who was met with climate-activist protests and hecklers), and Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the Bundeswehr (Germany’s armed forces), who warned Russia could be ready for war against the West by 2029. Mr Steinmeier also defended Pope Leo against the American president’s criticism at the event. Both Mr Merz and Mr Steinmeier used the platform for broader political messaging. (tagesschau.de)
- Merz government faces historic approval collapse — coalition stability and leadership questioned — Multiple polls showed Friedrich Merz’s approval rating at a historic low of 15%, with 81% rating his performance as poor; a YouGov survey showed only 16% satisfied with the coalition. Tensions within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) surfaced, with state premiers complaining that Mr Merz treats them like ‘department heads,’ and speculation about potential successor Hendrik Wüst intensified. A defeat in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house of parliament, on the relief premium further illustrated the government’s difficulty maintaining governing majorities.
Notes
Notes
Merz-Trump rift over Iran remark triggers US troop withdrawal, tariff threats, and eventual phone-call patch-up
May 10–17, 2026
Pistorius makes surprise Kyiv visit, announces joint drone development with Ukraine up to 1,500 km range
May 10–15, 2026
AfD hits record 29% in polling, seven points ahead of CDU/CSU, as warnings of 'Weimar conditions' spread
May 12–17, 2026
AfD's plans to take power in Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern alarm democratic institutions
May 12–17, 2026
Merz booed at DGB Trade Union Congress as welfare reform tensions with unions escalate
May 10–17, 2026
104th Katholikentag in Würzburg draws Merz, Steinmeier, and political debate over democracy
May 13–17, 2026
Merz government faces historic approval collapse — coalition stability and Merz's leadership questioned
May 15–17, 2026
United Kingdom
Wes Streeting’s resignation from Cabinet on Thursday was the moment Keir Starmer’s leadership crisis stopped being a question and became a countdown.
Streeting, the health secretary, quit citing “a vacuum where vision should be” and immediately announced a leadership bid — the first Cabinet minister to resign on leadership grounds in the Starmer era. Within hours, Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, declared his own candidacy, and Labour’s governing body approved him to stand in the Makerfield by-election, a seat vacated by a sitting MP to clear his path. Angela Rayner, whose earlier Cabinet resignation over a tax dispute has since been cleared, also emerged as a potential candidate. About 90 Labour MPs have called for Starmer to go. Starmer refused, warning a contest would “plunge the country into chaos.” The result is five weeks of governing limbo: until Burnham wins the by-election and enters Parliament, no formal contest under Labour’s rules can begin — leaving Starmer formally prime minister but the subject of a succession race.
Markets did not wait for the formal contest. Gilt yields rose to their highest since 1998 and the pound fell 1.3% against the dollar as investors priced in Westminster’s disarray and doubt about whether a successor would maintain fiscal discipline. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s chief executive, warned that the bank might reconsider its London office expansion if Starmer is ousted. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, pushed back with GDP data released the same week: first-quarter output expanded 0.6%, ahead of the 0.5% consensus forecast, with services, manufacturing, and construction all contributing. But economists warned the first quarter is probably the high point. The Iran war and political uncertainty, they said, are set to bring growth close to a standstill in the second half of the year.
Even as the party fractured, constitutional machinery kept moving. King Charles III delivered the State Opening of Parliament on May 13, reading out a 37-bill agenda that included a Tackling State Threats Bill, antisemitism measures, and a Steel Industry Nationalisation Bill. Buckingham Palace had privately asked No. 10 whether the ceremony should proceed given the prime minister’s position; the Palace’s answer was explicit: do not bring us into this. The ceremony went ahead, though David Lammy, the foreign secretary, handed the speech to Charles in a minor breach of protocol that several outlets noted. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, used the Commons debate to declare the prime minister’s authority “gone.”
The crisis has begun to warp Britain’s external relationships. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), came to London to discuss Iran’s attacks on UAE civilian sites — routine diplomacy given the conflict. Less routine was a separate meeting he held with Nigel Farage. Analysts described the encounter as the UAE treating Farage as a prime minister-in-waiting: the first concrete sign of a foreign government hedging against the current government’s possible fall. Meanwhile, an open-microphone moment at the King’s Trust gala added friction to the US relationship: Rod Stewart told King Charles he had put the American president “in his place” during the Washington state visit, calling him “that little ratbag.” Charles laughed it off, but the president’s aides reportedly reacted with fury.
The succession contest may also reopen questions many in the government had considered settled. During his leadership campaign, Streeting called Brexit “a catastrophic mistake” — language Bloomberg linked to a revived debate about rejoining the EU. If he or another pro-EU candidate were to succeed Starmer, the reset-within-Brexit framework that has shaped British diplomacy since the election could give way to something more disruptive. For now it is a campaign statement, not a policy shift. But it is the most significant potential break in Britain’s foreign policy this assessment has tracked.
One signal is loudest by its absence. Last week’s assessment identified a planned reset speech as the key test of whether Starmer could hold his party. No such speech changed the momentum: by Thursday the crisis had escalated to a Cabinet resignation. The EU work that Starmer’s “Europe at the heart of the reset” declaration was meant to accelerate — on trade, defence cooperation, and Ukraine loan arrangements — shows no movement this week. A prime minister fighting for survival has no capacity for bilateral diplomacy.
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- Starmer fights to survive Labour leadership crisis after catastrophic local election losses — Keir Starmer, the prime minister, faced the gravest threat to his premiership after Labour’s disastrous May 7 local and regional elections, with nearly 90 MPs calling for his resignation, four junior ministers resigning, and Wes Streeting, the health secretary, quitting and announcing a leadership bid. Starmer refused to step down, warning a contest would ‘plunge the country into chaos,’ while Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, secured a by-election path back to parliament and announced his own candidacy, sending gilt yields to their highest since 1998 and prompting international market concern. (cnn.com)
- Reform UK wins local elections; Farage faces parliamentary probe over £5 million undisclosed gift — Reform UK won the May 7 local elections, gaining around 1,400 council seats across England. The parliamentary standards watchdog launched an investigation into Nigel Farage for failing to declare a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne; Farage later described the money as ‘a reward for campaigning for Brexit.’ Elon Musk publicly accused Farage of lying about the incident. (reuters.com)
- Kemi Badenoch attacks Labour chaos and unexpectedly wins endorsement from Nicki Minaj — Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, used the King’s Speech debate and subsequent media appearances to attack Starmer’s government as ‘in office but not in power,’ while warning that Burnham’s fiscal plans would impose a ‘Burnham premium’ on mortgage costs. US rapper Nicki Minaj unexpectedly praised Badenoch on social media after watching Commons footage, comparing her to Margaret Thatcher, which Badenoch described as ‘very flattering.’ (nme.com)
- Far-right Tommy Robinson march and pro-Palestine demonstration draw tens of thousands to London with 11 arrests — Two major protests converged on London on May 16: Tommy Robinson’s ‘Unite the Kingdom’ rally and a pro-Palestine Nakba Day march. Around 4,000 police officers were deployed with armoured vehicles, dogs, and drones; 11 people were arrested. David Lammy, the deputy prime minister, condemned the far-right organisers as ‘spreading hatred and division’ and warned of swift action if violence occurred. (theguardian.com)
- Bank of England softens stablecoin regulatory framework after industry pushback — Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s deputy governor, signalled that the central bank was reconsidering its proposed stablecoin framework, including temporary ownership caps of £20,000 per individual and 40% reserve requirements, describing earlier proposals as potentially ‘overly conservative.’ The bank also signalled openness to sterling stablecoin issuers ahead of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regime coming into force, aiming to keep London competitive against US and European digital asset markets. (ft.com)
- King Charles visits Golders Green in solidarity with Jewish community after antisemitic attacks — King Charles III visited a Jewish community centre in the north London neighbourhood of Golders Green on May 14, meeting victims of a stabbing attack and members of the Shomrim emergency response service following an unprecedented wave of antisemitic violence in the UK. Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis and Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley accompanied the King. (nbcnews.com)
- Lammy backs Starmer and warns Labour against navel-gazing — David Lammy, the deputy prime minister and foreign secretary, repeatedly declared ‘full support’ for Starmer across the week, warning colleagues that internal ‘navel-gazing’ benefits Reform UK, while questioning whether any challenger had the numbers to mount a formal contest. One of Mr Lammy’s parliamentary aides, Melanie Ward, resigned from her position, adding to the pressure. (reuters.com)
- Bank of England monetary policy: rate-setters divided as Iran war energy shock clouds outlook — Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members gave conflicting signals on rate direction this week. Sarah Breeden, the deputy governor, said hikes were not needed in June or July; Catherine Mann, a hawkish committee member, warned a future shock could trigger gilt market instability as overseas investors replace domestic pension funds; Megan Greene, another MPC member, said it was worth waiting to assess the Iran war’s economic impact before backing hikes. The Bank’s governor had previously flagged a ‘very big energy shock’ from the conflict. (reuters.com)
- Lammy meets UAE foreign minister over Iran attacks on UAE; Farage also granted unusual diplomatic meeting — Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates’ deputy prime minister and foreign minister, met David Lammy, Britain’s deputy prime minister, in London to discuss Iran’s drone and missile attacks on civilian sites in the UAE. In an unusual diplomatic signal, the UAE minister separately met Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, with analysts noting this indicated the UAE treating Mr Farage as a ‘prime minister-in-waiting.’
Notes
Notes
Starmer fights to survive Labour leadership crisis after catastrophic local election losses
May 12–17, 2026
Reform UK wins local elections; Farage faces parliamentary probe over £5 million undisclosed gift
May 12–17, 2026
Kemi Badenoch attacks Labour chaos and unexpectedly wins endorsement from Nicki Minaj
May 11–17, 2026
King Charles delivers King's Speech at State Opening of Parliament amid Starmer leadership turmoil
May 13–15, 2026
Far-right Tommy Robinson march and pro-Palestine demonstration draw tens of thousands to London with 11 arrests
May 16–17, 2026
King Charles visits Golders Green in solidarity with Jewish community after antisemitic attacks
May 15–16, 2026
Rod Stewart praises King Charles for putting Trump 'in his place' at King's Trust 50th anniversary gala
May 11–17, 2026
Rachel Reeves highlights UK GDP growth while warning leadership contest risks economic recovery
May 14–15, 2026
Bank of England monetary policy: rate-setters divided as Iran war energy shock clouds outlook
May 11–14, 2026
Lammy meets UAE foreign minister over Iran attacks on UAE; Farage also granted unusual diplomatic meeting
Italy
Guido Crosetto, Italy’s defence minister, disclosed this week that he had written twice to the treasury demanding a decision on €14.9 billion in EU defence financing — and received no reply. He went public rather than using normal government channels, exposing what Italy’s coalition has spent months managing quietly: the arithmetic of rearming Italy does not work within the fiscal constraints Lega will accept.
The money is Italy’s allocation from the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, which offers below-market loans for already-planned procurements over 2026-2030. Italy must confirm participation before the end of May or forfeit access. Giancarlo Giorgetti, the economy minister and Lega’s senior figure in cabinet, has called SAFE “just a loan — not zero cost” and says energy spending is the priority. A summit among Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, and her two deputies, Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini, ran for an hour before a cabinet council that lasted seven minutes — long enough to renew existing military missions, not long enough to resolve the SAFE question. One reading is that Mr Crosetto acted alone, venting frustration at Mr Giorgetti’s silence. The more calculating interpretation — that Ms Meloni tacitly approved the move to pressure Mr Giorgetti into a decision — will not be settled until the deadline passes.
Ms Meloni escalated on a separate front at the same time. She wrote to Ursula von der Leyen demanding that the National Escape Clause — the fiscal rule exemption already granted for defence spending — be extended to cover energy crisis spending, without changing the maximum deviation limits already in place. The letter conditioned Italy’s SAFE participation on receiving the exemption: “it would be very difficult,” she wrote, “for the Government to explain to public opinion a possible recourse to the SAFE programme” without it. The EU Commission rejected the request the same day. Lega figures greeted the letter warmly — a clear sign of its real audience.
The SAFE standoff and the von der Leyen letter show Italy’s defence-fiscal bind in the open for the first time. The defence ministry wants to rearm; the economy ministry will not release the financing; and the prime minister is demanding that Brussels relax its fiscal rules on energy, because pension and welfare commitments leave no other room to manoeuvre.
The Hormuz front moved less this week, and in a more controlled direction. Mr Crosetto and Mr Tajani jointly briefed parliamentary committees on May 13, confirming that two minesweepers are repositioning toward Djibouti and the Suez area — within existing mission mandates, not as a new Hormuz deployment. Any formal commitment would require a ceasefire, a legal framework, and a parliamentary vote. Mr Crosetto separately defended Italy’s refusal to allow a US aircraft to land at Sigonella — now entered into the parliamentary record as official government policy, not an improvised rebuff. That hardening limits how easily any future concession to Washington could be dressed up as routine course correction.
At home, a car attack in Modena added a stress the coalition was least equipped to absorb: the kind that gives Mr Salvini an opening. Salim El Koudri, a 31-year-old Italian-born citizen of Moroccan origin, drove at high speed through the city centre on May 16, injuring eight people — four critically, two losing legs. Mr El Koudri had been known to mental health services since 2022; Matteo Piantedosi, the interior minister, attributed the attack to psychiatric distress, and investigators confirmed no links to extremism. Mr Salvini called Mr El Koudri a “criminal of the second generation” and demanded stricter citizenship policy. Mr Tajani’s response was blunt: “The man from Modena is Italian.” Sergio Mattarella, Italy’s president, and Ms Meloni visited the injured together at two hospitals the following day — a carefully managed unity display. Among those who helped subdue Mr El Koudri were Egyptian nationals; Mr Tajani proposed a civilian bravery medal for all of them.
This is the third time the two deputy prime ministers have clashed visibly on migration and security. The pattern is consistent enough to read as deliberate: Mr Salvini escalates, Mr Tajani corrects, Ms Meloni holds studied ambiguity. Ms Meloni cancelled a scheduled meeting with Cyprus to attend the Modena hospitals — a defensible call given the severity of the attack, but one that shows the cost of governing under this kind of pressure: diplomatic commitments are now the first thing cut when a domestic crisis demands attention.
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- Modena car-ramming and stabbing attack triggers national response and coalition row over immigration — On May 16, Salim El Koudri, a 31-year-old Italian-born citizen of Moroccan origin, drove his car into a crowd in central Modena, injuring eight people (four critically, two requiring amputations), then stabbed a bystander before being subdued by civilians. Mr Mattarella and Ms Meloni visited hospital victims together on May 17, cancelling other engagements; Mr Tajani proposed a civilian bravery medal for civilian responders; Mr Salvini immediately called for stricter immigration and citizenship policy, triggering a public clash with Mr Tajani, who corrected him noting El Koudri was an Italian citizen. Interior minister Piantedosi attributed the attack to psychiatric distress. Thousands gathered in Piazza Grande in a spontaneous solidarity vigil. (bbc.com)
- Italy moves two minesweepers toward Hormuz, Tajani and Crosetto brief parliament: no new mission without ceasefire — Mr Tajani and Mr Crosetto jointly briefed the combined foreign affairs and defence committees of both chambers on May 13, clarifying that Italy is repositioning two minesweepers (Crotone and Rimini) toward Djibouti and the Suez area as a precautionary measure within existing missions, not as a new Hormuz operation. Any formal military deployment would require a full ceasefire, a legal framework, and parliamentary authorisation. Mr Crosetto also defended Italy’s decision to deny landing to a US aircraft at Sigonella in a separate parliamentary hearing.
Notes
Notes
Modena car-ramming and stabbing attack triggers national response and coalition row over immigration
May 16–17, 2026
Meloni writes to von der Leyen demanding EU Stability Pact energy exemption alongside defense carve-out
May 17, 2026
Crosetto publicly presses Giorgetti on SAFE defense funds as government faces end-of-May deadline
May 11–17, 2026
Italy moves two minesweepers toward Hormuz, Tajani and Crosetto brief parliament: no new mission without ceasefire
May 13, 2026
Spain
The People’s Party (PP) fell two seats short of an absolute majority in Andalusia on May 17, and the arithmetic was stark: Juanma Moreno cannot govern Spain’s most reliably conservative region without Vox, and neither can Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the party’s national leader, govern Spain.
The result — PP at 53 seats, Vox at 15, absolute majority requiring 55 in a 109-seat parliament — demolished the notion that PP could govern without the far right. Santiago Abascal, Vox’s leader, wasted no time declaring his party “ready to make itself felt” and calling on Mr Moreno to “attend to voters.” How much Mr Moreno pays Vox to form a government in Seville will set the price nationally. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) fared no better: 28 seats on 22.7% of the vote — the party’s worst result in Andalusia in both seats and share. María Jesús Montero, the regional candidate Pedro Sánchez, the prime minister, had deployed as his standard-bearer, will struggle to recover. Mr Sánchez pledged to continue governing until the 2027 general election, invoking his recovery from an earlier Andalusian rout in 2022. The constructive no-confidence rule protects him: there is no viable candidate to unseat him.
The more disruptive result belonged to Forward Andalusia. José Ignacio García, a 38-year-old teacher and psychologist running a party deliberately separate from the Sumar–United Left–Podemos bloc, quadrupled his seats from 2 to 8, outpolling the Sumar-aligned list by over 130,000 votes. Mr García declared that his party had “removed PP’s absolute majority” and had no interest in joining a Socialist government. The party announced plans to contest general elections — a new fracture on the left, rooted in the regions and now pointing toward Madrid. Yolanda Díaz, the deputy prime minister, was in Beijing for a Chinese government trade summit as the results came in. Her absence from Spain on the night her coalition was eclipsed on its own ground drew little sympathy. Sumar’s crisis deepens.
While the domestic results settled, Spain was having its busiest diplomatic week in months. King Felipe VI’s state visit to Canada (May 19–21) was planned with unusual care: the Economy Ministry, not the Foreign Ministry, leads the delegation — a signal that this is economic statecraft, not protocol. The programme includes a 170-company business forum at Toronto’s MaRS Discovery District, a bilateral AI cooperation agreement linking Indra, Multiverse Computing, and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center to Canadian AI policy, and meetings in Ottawa with Mary Simon, the governor-general. The trade base of around €7 billion sits well below what Spanish companies already embedded in Canada — Ferrovial, Acciona, Indra, Grifols — represent. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, is pushing to diversify away from the United States, and that is the opening Spain is exploiting; Madrid is presenting itself as a preferred partner for states seeking exactly that.
Ms Díaz’s Beijing visit extended the same logic in a different direction. She met Han Zheng, China’s vice president, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, along with senior labour and trade officials, and addressed a summit organised by China’s Council for the Promotion of International Trade. She also met Xi Guohua, president of CITIC Group — China’s largest state-owned investment conglomerate, with assets exceeding $1 trillion. The visit continued Spain’s deliberate policy of close engagement with China regardless of domestic electoral timing. Mr Sánchez, meanwhile, travelled to Geneva to address the World Health Organisation (WHO) World Health Assembly, building on a meeting with Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director-general, the previous week. José Manuel Albares, the foreign minister, held meetings with his Kuwaiti and Egyptian counterparts in Madrid and closed an EU–Mercosur implementation seminar in Barcelona — two more threads in Spain’s effort to present itself as the EU’s preferred bridge to the Arab world and Latin America alike.
On defence, King Felipe VI’s visit to the Joint Cyberspace Command at the Retamares base on May 14 gave the clearest picture yet of what Spain’s NATO contribution looks like in practice. NATO has designated Spain as the host nation for the alliance’s Cyber Range capability — a 10,000 m² simulation and training facility for 250 analysts — funded partly by €106 million from NATO’s own supply agency. A separate €160 million contract for a cyber-operations platform has gone to Indra. Personnel will triple from 500 to 1,500 by 2030. This is burden-sharing in a domain where Spain’s investment avoids the anti-militarist political constraints that block straightforward spending increases. Margarita Robles, the defence minister, attended four sessions of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in its defence format in Brussels that week — covering Ukraine, the European security strategy, and the Middle East — before appearing before the Congress Defence Committee to account for her participation.
US–Spain relations stayed on a quiet plateau. No repair gestures, no new escalation: both sides are managing the confrontation over base access rather than resolving it.
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Other Stories
- King Felipe VI holds multiple royal audiences and cultural events including Heritage Cities and school contest — In the week of May 11–18, King Felipe VI held a series of institutional audiences: receiving winners of the ‘What is a king to you?’ (¿Qué es un rey para ti?) school contest at El Pardo (with notable remarks on diversity), hosting mayors from the UNESCO World Heritage Cities group on the occasion of International Heritage Day, presenting Codespa NGO prizes on poverty reduction, and sanctioning a fourth constitutional reform extending Senate representation to Formentera. (rtve.es)
- King emeritus Juan Carlos I shows notable physical decline during Sanxenxo sailing visit — Juan Carlos I made his second visit of 2026 to Sanxenxo (Galicia) May 13–17 for a sailing regatta, but observers noted a marked deterioration in his physical condition, with the 88-year-old requiring assistance from two people to leave his aircraft. Family members including Infanta Elena and granddaughter Victoria Federica visited him during his stay.
Notes
Notes
PP wins Andalusia regional election but loses absolute majority; PSOE records historic worst result, Vox becomes kingmaker
May 11–18, 2026
King Felipe VI undertakes state visit to Canada amid Trump-era geopolitical realignment
May 13–18, 2026
Felipe VI visits Joint Cyberspace Command, backing expansion to 1,500 personnel by 2030
May 14, 2026
King Felipe VI holds multiple royal audiences and cultural events including Heritage Cities and school contest
May 11–17, 2026
King emeritus Juan Carlos I shows notable physical decline during Sanxenxo sailing visit
May 16–17, 2026
France
Marine Le Pen told RTL on May 13 that she will run in 2027 even if convicted with a suspended sentence — turning what had seemed a simple two-way choice ahead of the July 7 appeals court verdict into three possible outcomes.
If the court upholds the original conviction and five-year office ban, Jordan Bardella becomes the presumptive National Rally (RN) candidate. If it converts the sentence to a suspended form while removing the ban, Le Pen runs. If she is acquitted, she runs. The conditions under which Mr Bardella would be the candidate are narrower than analysts had assumed, and Le Pen’s statement signals that her legal team believes the partial outcome is viable. Le Figaro independently corroborated the RTL interview.
A Jean-Jaurès Foundation and Ipsos study that week found that 45% of French voters say they could vote for the RN — not a projected vote share but a measure of how completely the party has entered the mainstream. The study breaks the party’s potential electorate into four families: “libéraux identitaires” (identity-focused economic liberals, 34%), “France oubliée” (peri-urban and rural economic grievance, 21%), a sliding centre-right protest bloc, and a hardline far-right fringe. The coalition holds together on anti-immigration and anti-establishment sentiment alone; beyond that, its members want incompatible things.
Meanwhile the non-RN left finished collapsing. Yannick Jadot, the Green senator who had tried to organise a left primary outside France Unbowed (LFI), declared on May 17 that “even among the Greens, as at the Socialist Party, everyone has abandoned the idea.” Mr Jadot named Raphaël Glucksmann as the likely candidate from whatever remains of the initiative. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is running his own “new France” campaign independently, will contest regardless. François Ruffin has threatened to run alone if no primary materialises. With the left splintered three ways, a Mélenchon-versus-RN second round in 2027 — once treated as a worst-case scenario — is now the most likely result.
That electoral trajectory unfolded against a president visibly losing the final year of his mandate. Emmanuel Macron’s nomination of his former Élysée secretary-general, Emmanuel Moulin, to head the Banque de France drew accusations of “recasage”: placing loyalists in state posts before the term ends. Bank staff had prepared briefing notes for Mr Moulin ahead of his parliamentary hearing, adding a procedural impropriety charge to the political one. Roland Lescure, the economy minister, insisted the nomination was “anything but a recasage,” but both LFI and the RN announced they would vote against it, putting parliamentary confirmation in doubt. Le JDD called it “the week where everything unravels.” A figure cited in a single Le JDD article — unemployment at 8.1% in the first quarter of 2026, which would be the highest since Mr Macron’s first term — has not yet been independently corroborated, but if confirmed it would destroy the “full employment” claim that remained his last defensible legacy.
Abroad, Mr Macron pushed on. At the Africa Forward 2026 summit in Nairobi, co-hosted with William Ruto, Kenya’s president, he stated plainly that France had been “overtaken in Africa” over 25 years by Turkey, China, and the United States, attributing the failure to French companies and administrations that assumed historical ties would substitute for competitiveness. A €23 billion investment pledge accompanied a call for a “conceptual revolution” away from patron-client logic. He also stopped in Addis Ababa to meet Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister. The declaration formalised what France’s Africa posture had implied for months: the Françafrique model is dead, replaced by a presidential acknowledgement of competitive defeat. The reception was not triumphant — a BFM TV camera caught Mr Macron visibly irritated by a noisy audience, and one ally told Le JDD that “on form and substance, this trip was a failure.” On Ukraine, Mr Macron condemned Russia’s largest drone and missile strike in four years and, in a subsequent call, Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that France is “ready to cooperate” on anti-ballistic capabilities — a new domain beyond prior French commitments.
One intelligence story sharpened an existing tension. French agencies are investigating whether BlackCore, an Israeli firm, ran a disinformation campaign — including fake websites — targeting three LFI candidates in Marseille, Toulouse, and Roubaix ahead of March local elections. Israel’s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of BlackCore. The investigation rests on a Reuters exclusive and remains uncorroborated, but the implication is pointed: an active French counter-intelligence operation against an Israeli-linked actor would complicate the France-Israel intelligence relationship at a moment when France’s recognition of Palestinian statehood at the UN has already provoked Israeli threats to restrict intelligence sharing.
At home, petrol prices reached their highest level since the Iran war began in February, with SP95 unleaded passing €2 per litre. Sébastien Lecornu, the prime minister, confirmed in the National Assembly that fuel consumption had dropped roughly 30%, collapsing the tax revenues the government had quietly counted on — a double bind in which the state loses income while facing pressure to spend on relief. The government delayed a fuel aid package it had promised for this week; new measures are now expected on May 21.
Other Stories
Other Stories
- Hantavirus crisis: Lecornu takes charge of government response as French patient remains in intensive care — A French passenger from the MV Hondius cruise ship tested positive for Andes hantavirus and was placed in intensive care at Paris’s Bichat hospital. Sébastien Lecornu, the prime minister, led daily interministerial meetings, ordered mandatory hospital quarantine for all contact cases without exception, and called for tighter EU-Schengen protocol coordination; France’s Pasteur Institute confirmed the virus matches known South American strains. The health minister, Rist, was also highly visible in communications, though final decisions flowed from the prime minister’s office. (lemonde.fr)
- Mbappé anti-RN comments in Vanity Fair trigger extended political clash with Bardella and Le Pen — France football captain Kylian Mbappé told Vanity Fair he fears the consequences of an RN victory in 2027, provoking sharp responses from Jordan Bardella, the RN’s president (who mocked Mbappé’s football record), and Marine Le Pen (who said Mbappé’s opposition “reassures” her). The exchange generated days of political commentary and drew reactions from coach Deschamps, government ministers, and foreign press. (franceinfo.fr)
- Fuel prices at record high due to Middle East war as Lecornu delays then schedules new aid package for June — Petrol prices in France reached their highest level since the start of the Iran war on 27 February, exceeding €2 per litre for SP95 unleaded; fiscal revenues from fuel fell sharply as consumption dropped roughly 30%, undermining a “windfall” narrative. Sébastien Lecornu, the prime minister, announced he would present a new support package for heavy drivers and affected sectors on Thursday 21 May, after weeks of criticism for slow action. (leparisien.fr)
- Book ‘Un couple (presque) parfait’ reignites Macron marital rumours; Élysée denies — A new book by Florian Tardif, a Paris Match journalist, claimed that Brigitte Macron’s filmed slap of the president during their 2025 Vietnam visit was triggered by a jealous quarrel over messages Emmanuel Macron allegedly exchanged with Franco-Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani. Both Brigitte Macron’s entourage and the Élysée denied the account; the book drove days of tabloid and political media coverage. (lepoint.fr)
- Macron’s Africa Forward summit in Nairobi yields €23bn investment pledge but raises questions on France’s retreat — Emmanuel Macron attended the Africa Forward 2026 summit in Nairobi (11–12 May) co-hosted with William Ruto, Kenya’s president, pledging €23 billion in development commitments and acknowledging France had been “overtaken” by Turkey, China and the United States on the continent. The visit included a stop in Ethiopia to meet Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister, and prompted commentary on whether France’s “Françafrique” model can be reformed. (jeuneafrique.com)
- Macron end-of-mandate legacy coverage intensifies one year from handover — With exactly one year before his mandate expires on 13 May 2027, multiple French media ran long-form assessments of Emmanuel Macron’s record. Le JDD described “a week where everything unravels,” Le Figaro warned of “a final high-risk year,” and former ministers from his own camp publicly criticised his governance style. Mr Macron maintained ambiguity about his post-2027 plans. (lejdd.fr)
- Macron pledges French anti-ballistic cooperation with Ukraine following major Russian missile strike — Emmanuel Macron condemned a major Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine (described as the largest in four years) as proof that Russia “does not know how to end its war of aggression.” Zelensky subsequently confirmed France is “ready to cooperate” on anti-ballistic capabilities, following a phone call with Mr Macron. (lemonde.fr)
- Cruise ship Ambition quarantined in Bordeaux over norovirus outbreak; asymptomatic passengers later allowed to disembark — A cruise ship carrying over 1,700 mostly British and Irish passengers was confined in Bordeaux port after approximately 50 passengers developed gastroenteritis symptoms; one 92-year-old British passenger died of cardiac arrest before arrival. French authorities confirmed the cause as a viral gastrointestinal infection and allowed asymptomatic passengers to leave once testing
Notes
Notes
Hantavirus crisis: Lecornu takes charge of government response as French patient remains in intensive care
May 11–17, 2026
Macron nominee for Banque de France governorship faces cronyism accusations ahead of parliamentary hearing
May 11–17, 2026
Mbappé anti-RN comments in Vanity Fair trigger extended political clash with Bardella and Le Pen
May 12–16, 2026
Fuel prices at record high due to Middle East war as Lecornu delays then schedules new aid package for June
May 11–17, 2026
RN and 2027 presidential campaign: Le Pen's candidacy status, Bardella preparations, electorate expansion
May 11–17, 2026
2027 left-wing presidential race: primaire collapse as Mélenchon, Ruffin, Glucksmann jockey for position
May 12–17, 2026
Macron's Africa Forward summit in Nairobi yields €23bn investment pledge but raises questions on France's retreat
May 11–17, 2026
Macron pledges French anti-ballistic cooperation with Ukraine following major Russian missile strike
May 14–16, 2026
French intelligence probes Israeli firm BlackCore for alleged electoral interference against LFI candidates
May 12–15, 2026