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Regional Summary

The Story Is Working. For Now. Governing across the Americas looks less like solving problems and more like managing the distance between the problem and the story told about it. That distance is closing. Mark Carney is the clearest case. External threats — an Alberta government referendum on separation scheduled for October, the Pentagon pausing a bilateral defence forum dating to 1940, a trade agreement review five weeks from deadline with formal talks yet to begin — are feeding his poll numbers. Abacus Data puts his Liberals 12 points ahead of the Conservatives, with 47% of Canadians saying the country is headed in the right direction, the highest reading since 2017. He leads even on cost of living, an issue his opponents had owned. Abacus frames him as a “stabilizing force against external threats.” But each crisis he is riding also binds him. Danielle Smith, Alberta’s premier, is asking whether Alberta should begin the legal process toward a separation vote — a vote on whether to hold a vote, which Ms Smith says she will vote against. Quebec’s three-way race tightens. Fourteen Liberal MPs from Quebec and British Columbia have warned in writing that concessions on pipelines and carbon pricing would compromise the government’s credibility. British Columbia’s premier told Mr Carney, before their meeting, that an energy deal with Ms Smith was “rewarding a separatist premier.” The story of a leader steadying Canada against external shocks is working in the polls. The underlying negotiations — on trade, pipelines, labour relations — have barely begun. Claudia Sheinbaum signed Mexico’s expanded trade deal with the European Union in the most explicit hedge against American tariffs yet attempted in the hemisphere. António Costa, the European Council president, called it “a true geopolitical statement.” The maths are less satisfying. The deal’s projected gain of $12 billion in annual EU-bound exports compares with roughly $930 billion in US-bound trade. The same week, Moody’s cut Mexico’s sovereign credit rating to the bottom rung of investment grade, citing persistent fiscal weakness and continued transfers to Pemex, the state oil company. The circular logic is precise: Mexico cannot improve its credit without fixing Pemex; it will not fix Pemex because Pemex is a political commitment; the EU deal’s projected gains would not touch the problem. Reuters reported that Ms Sheinbaum privately told Movement for National Regeneration (Morena) governors and lawmakers this month that officials tied to corruption must resign and face consequences. Publicly, she frames US pressure on cartels as a sovereignty violation, and a Morena-aligned legislature is writing that framing into constitutional law, including a provision to nullify elections on grounds of foreign interference. Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations open this week with the Moody’s downgrade fresh, the Falcon reservoir at 15.3% capacity, and a Sinaloa governor under US indictment for cartel ties. The gap between the sovereignty narrative and what is at stake in those talks is the whole risk. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and José Antonio Kast, Chile’s president, are each winning a political moment while their foundations shift. Datafolha’s first post-Vorcaro survey shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 40% to 31% in the first round; three weeks ago the gap was three points. But the right’s ceiling holds at roughly 43% whoever leads the ticket, and 88% of Mr Bolsonaro’s own voters want him to stay in the race — the movement has not broken, only the candidate. Lula is winning by default, and his net-negative government approval of 38% says so plainly. He has no candidate for Minas Gerais, Brazil’s second-largest electoral college; Petrobras is absorbing roughly a billion dollars in losses selling fuel below market prices; the overdue price increase has not come. Mr Kast moved fastest of the four — firing his security minister after 69 days, the earliest reshuffle in Chile’s modern democratic history — but the move did not lift his approval above 37%. His coalition handed him a written list of demands ahead of his June 1 annual address to congress. Codelco, the state copper company that generates roughly a fifth of government revenue, turns out to have falsified 26,875 tonnes of output across two divisions; his economy minister called it “out of control.” None of these leaders faces immediate collapse, and several will have good weeks ahead. The crises sustaining their narratives are the same ones requiring resolution — and resolution is harder than the story. Mr Carney’s “stabilizing force” image requires a CUSMA deal, a pipeline decision that satisfies neither British Columbia nor Alberta, and a labour reform that does not fracture the union base he needs to hold. Ms Sheinbaum enters formal trade talks with a freshly downgraded sovereign rating and a corruption crisis she can only address in private. Lula’s lead is borrowed from a scandal rather than earned from governance, and Petrobras’s deferred price shock will land eventually. Mr Kast’s second phase launches June 1 with coalition partners already presenting terms. The gap between the narrative and the governing has kept each of them afloat. It cannot widen indefinitely.

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Country Summaries

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Canada flag Canada

A week after a court appeared to block Alberta’s separation referendum, Danielle Smith, Alberta’s premier, announced the provincial government would simply hold its own — scheduled for October 19. Ms Smith’s question asks Albertans whether the government should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate.” It is a vote on whether to hold a vote, not a declaration of independence. Ms Smith said she will personally vote No and supports Alberta remaining in Canada. Daniel Béland, a McGill political scientist, noted the framing lets swing voters “send a political message without taking the risk of leading the province to the point of no return” — the same logic that defined the Brexit referendum. A Yes result would trigger negotiations under the 1998 Supreme Court ruling; it would not enable unilateral secession. What it would do is force the federal government to respond formally, with all the political costs that entails. Ms Smith called the prior court ruling “a legal mistake by a single judge.” Mark Carney called Alberta “essential” and pointed to the recent energy deal. The announcement restores, in full, the October 2026 convergence window the desk had partly closed last week: an Alberta government referendum on pursuing separation on October 19; a Quebec provincial election that is now, following a 9-point surge by the Coalition Avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette, the new premier, a genuine three-way race (Parti Québécois (PQ) 30%, Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) 28%, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) 22%); and a Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review with roughly five weeks to the July 1 deadline and formal talks not yet launched. None of these is individually existential — sovereignty support in Quebec sits below 30%, Ms Smith personally opposes separation — but the machinery for a formal constitutional challenge is now in place on two fronts at once, with a trade deadline as backdrop. The crises appear to be helping Mr Carney. Abacus Data shows Liberal approval and Mr Carney’s personal ratings at new highs, with a 12-point national lead over Conservatives and 47% of Canadians saying the country is headed in the right direction — the highest since 2017. Liberals now lead Conservatives even on cost of living (45% to 32%), erasing the opposition’s most durable advantage. Abacus frames Mr Carney as a “stabilizing force against external threats.” The Alberta referendum and US pressure are, for now, feeding the story that drives his poll numbers. The US added two pressure signals this week. Elbridge Colby, the US under-secretary of defence, announced the Pentagon is “pausing” participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defence — a bilateral forum dating to 1940 — citing Canada’s failure to make “credible progress on its defence commitments” and linking the decision explicitly to Mr Carney’s Davos speech about diversifying alliances. Mr Carney said he “wouldn’t overplay the importance of this” and pledged to deepen ties with NATO partners and Ukraine. Separately, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) ordered streaming platforms including Netflix and Amazon Prime to contribute 15% of Canadian revenues to Canadian content funds, up from 5%. The US ambassador called the decision “making a bad situation worse.” Marc Miller, the culture minister, did not endorse it, saying it is “under review” — echoing the government’s earlier retreat on the digital services tax. With formal CUSMA talks not yet launched and the US and Mexico already meeting without Canada, each new friction point carries more weight. Mr Carney’s domestic coalition is also showing its first organised crack. Fourteen Liberal MPs from Quebec and BC sent a formal letter warning him that concessions on pipelines and carbon pricing would “seriously compromise” government credibility. Steven Guilbeault has spoken publicly; the others have not. The Bloc Québécois is trying to push them into the open, with Patrick Bonin, the environment critic, arguing Mr Carney “was not elected with a platform that is essentially the agenda of the oil and gas companies.” Fourteen of 174 is a manageable minority, and the government’s majority rules out any confidence risk, but the Bloc’s strategy — forcing Liberal MPs to choose between caucus solidarity and constituency voters before the summer recess — will constrain how far the energy pivot can advance. The pipeline dispute sharpened in Vancouver. Mr Carney warned David Eby, BC’s premier, that if development stalls in the province, Ottawa will “be spending more time elsewhere.” Mr Eby, before the meeting, called the Alberta energy deal “rewarding a separatist premier” and made clear he opposes an oil pipeline through northern BC, though he supports liquefied natural gas (LNG). No agreement was reached. Mr Carney dropped his prior language requiring BC’s agreement — a quiet retreat that may signal he intends to proceed under federal fast-tracking authority, which would invite litigation. The government also circulated a consultation paper on restricting the right to strike in federally regulated sectors — airlines, ports, railways, telecoms, and banking. Teamsters Canada called the proposed essential-services designations “effectively strike bans.” The consultation ran four weeks, extended by one to May 25. It is pre-legislative, but the government is signalling it will use its majority to restructure labour relations in the name of economic resilience — potentially fracturing the union support that underpins the Liberal base. April’s inflation data gave the Bank of Canada room to hold. Headline consumer-price inflation came in at 2.8%, below the 3.1% consensus. More important were the core measures: CPI-trim and CPI-median averaged 2.1%, a five-year low, with services inflation at 1.7%. Capital Economics found “core price pressures nowhere to be seen.” Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), KPMG and Rosenberg Research all forecast the Bank will hold at 2.25% through year-end, reducing the risk of a rate rise that had clouded the economic outlook in recent weeks. Largely drowned out by the Alberta story, Canada co-signed a nine-country statement — with Germany, Australia, France, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, the Netherlands, and the UK — calling Israeli settlements “unambiguously illegal under international law” and warning businesses of legal and reputational consequences. The statement goes further than Canada’s previous position on settlements. It aligns Ottawa more firmly with its European partners as it cultivates those relationships as a counterweight to Washington.
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Alberta announces fall referendum on separation, triggering national unity response from Carney, Poilievre, and others
May 19–24, 2026
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US suspends Permanent Joint Board on Defence with Canada, Carney downplays significance
May 18–21, 2026
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Carney to visit New York to pitch Canada as investment destination ahead of CUSMA review
May 24, 2026
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CRTC streaming content levy triggers US trade tensions and Poilievre attack on Carney
May 22–24, 2026
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Canada-US trade talks at impasse as CUSMA review approaches without Canada at table
May 20–22, 2026
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Liberal approval ratings and Carney poll numbers reach new highs
May 18–24, 2026
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Fourteen Liberal MPs warn Carney that Alberta pipeline deal risks environmental credibility
May 21–23, 2026
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Carney meets BC Premier Eby on pipeline, warns against delays in major project approvals
May 20, 2026
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Carney welcomes FIFA president to Ottawa, hoists World Cup trophy as Canada co-hosts 2026 tournament
May 24, 2026
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Carney government considering labour law changes including limits on right to strike
May 20–22, 2026
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Poilievre campaigns in BC on property rights following Indigenous land title ruling
May 21–23, 2026
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Poilievre loses chief of staff Ian Todd amid string of senior staff departures
May 19, 2026
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Conservative Party political analysis: path back to power uncertain as Liberals dominate polls
May 21–22, 2026
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Canadian inflation hits 2.8% in April; Bank of Canada expected to hold rates in June
May 19–22, 2026
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Industry Minister Joly announces \$76.2M federal investment in Tenaris steel plant in Sault Ste. Marie
May 21–23, 2026
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Quebec sovereignty movement OUI Québec releases civil society report calling for 'Quiet Revolution 2.0'
May 22–24, 2026
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Quebec election polls show three-way race as CAQ surges under new Premier Fréchette
May 19–22, 2026
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Joly promotes Canada's Arctic defence industrial strategy to northern businesses
May 20–21, 2026
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Carney breaks ground on Quebec graphite mine as part of critical minerals strategy
May 19–20, 2026
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Federal NDP elects Avi Lewis as leader, appoints Matthew Green as interim national director
May 19–23, 2026
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BC Conservative Party leadership vote underway amid late controversy over candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay
May 21–23, 2026

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Mexico flag Mexico

Mexico’s biggest trade deal in decades and its worst credit event of the Sheinbaum presidency arrived in the same week. They are the same story. Claudia Sheinbaum signed the EU-Mexico Modernised Global Agreement at the Palacio Nacional on May 22, alongside Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, and António Costa, the European Council president — the first Mexico-EU summit in more than a decade. The deal expands the 2000 accord to cover services, digital trade, government procurement, investment, and agricultural goods; Mexico’s economy ministry projects the country’s exports to the EU rising from $24 billion to $36 billion annually by 2030. Mr Costa called it “a true geopolitical statement” and “preparation for the challenges of our time.” Both governments made the subtext explicit: this is a hedge against US tariffs hitting Mexican automotive, steel, and aluminium exports. What that framing obscures is the maths. The projected $12 billion gain in EU-bound exports compares with roughly $930 billion in annual US-bound trade. Even if every projection holds, the deal barely shifts Mexico’s export concentration. That structure will not shift soon — and Moody’s said the same thing more bluntly. The ratings agency cut Mexico’s sovereign rating from Baa2 to Baa3, the bottom rung of investment grade, citing persistent fiscal weakness, rigid spending, and continued state transfers to Pemex. The downgrade triggered cascading cuts for the state electricity utility (CFE) and eight major commercial and development banks: BBVA México, Banorte, Santander, Banamex, the National Foreign Trade Bank (Bancomext), and Nacional Financiera (Nafin). Moody’s preserved Pemex’s B1 rating only on the assumption that the government would keep subsidising it — the same transfers Moody’s cited as the reason the sovereign cannot be rated higher. Mexico cannot fix its credit without fixing Pemex; it will not fix Pemex because Pemex is a political commitment. The EU deal’s projected gains would not touch the problem. Reuters reported this week — confirmed by two party sources — that Ms Sheinbaum privately told governors from the Movement for National Regeneration (Morena) at a National Palace meeting on May 15, and Morena lawmakers on May 7, that officials tied to corruption must resign and face consequences. “We must guarantee the future of Morena,” she reportedly said. Neither the presidency nor the party responded to Reuters. The private message diverges sharply from her public posture, which frames US pressure as a sovereignty violation. Party sources also told Reuters there is growing internal fear that Washington could designate Morena itself as a Foreign Terrorist Organization under the material support framework already applied to six Mexican cartels — a risk Ms Sheinbaum publicly dismisses. The Rocha crisis also exposed a cabinet failure. Omar García Harfuch, the security minister, initially confirmed that Rubén Rocha Moya, the Sinaloa governor on leave and under US indictment for cartel ties, held a federal National Guard protection detail. Both he and Ms Sheinbaum then denied it. The contradiction is documented across multiple outlets. Whether the original statement reflected genuine confusion inside the security apparatus or deliberate deception remains unresolved; it will be used regardless. On two other fronts the government moved with more assurance. The attorney general’s office summoned María Eugenia “Maru” Campos, the Chihuahua governor, and former state prosecutor César Jáuregui to testify on May 27 about a Sierra Tarahumara operation in which CIA agents worked without federal knowledge. Jorge Romero, the leader of the National Action Party (PAN), called it political persecution — a PAN governor summoned for taking part in a narco-lab raid while a Morena governor under US indictment faces no federal investigation. Ms Sheinbaum called it routine procedure. The gap between those two descriptions is the whole argument. Markwayne Mullin, the US homeland security secretary, met Ms Sheinbaum for the first time since taking office in March, with Mexico’s full security cabinet present: Mr García Harfuch, the defence and navy ministries, Rosa Icela Rodríguez of the interior ministry, and foreign ministry representation. Ms Sheinbaum said the US “accepted” that foreign agents cannot operate on Mexican soil and that there is “no subordination.” Both sides agreed to a follow-on meeting in June. Mr Mullin’s public language — “iron fist against narcoterrorism” — differed from the official communiqués, but the monthly coordination schedule was confirmed. The working doctrine is: cooperate in practice, defend sovereignty in public. Congress is moving to write that sovereignty narrative into law. The Permanent Commission voted 26-10 to open an extraordinary session on May 26. The agenda includes deepening the 2024 judicial reform, new candidate vetting rules, and — most consequentially — a constitutional basis for nullifying elections on grounds of foreign interference. That last provision turns the Rocha controversy from a political crisis into a legal instrument: a Morena-aligned legislature and judiciary could, in principle, invoke it against any future election result. The session also delays the next judicial election to June 2028. Ms Sheinbaum will deliver her second-year accountability report on May 31, broadcast simultaneously to public squares in all 32 states — replacing the Zócalo mass rallies her predecessor favoured with a distributed format. In Tabasco this week, previewing the event, she described Mexico as “nobody’s colony” and attacked TV Azteca as “the most dishonest television network.” The foreign interference framing is already set. Formal negotiations under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement begin the same week, with the Moody’s downgrade fresh, reservoir levels at Amistad at 19.3% capacity and Falcon at 15.3%, and the Rocha indictment still live. Twenty-five days before Guadalajara’s first World Cup group-stage match, no public security framework for the games has been confirmed — a planning gap that has become an operational one.
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Mexico and EU sign long-stalled Global Modernization Agreement at summit in Mexico City
May 22–24, 2026
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Sheinbaum meets DHS Secretary Mullin, pledges bilateral security cooperation 'without subordination'
May 22–24, 2026
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Sinaloa officials face US indictments and Interpol warrants; Sheinbaum tells Morena to resign if corrupt
May 18–24, 2026
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FGR summons Chihuahua governor Maru Campos over CIA agents operating without federal knowledge; PAN cries persecution
May 19–24, 2026
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Sheinbaum announces nationwide May 31 accountability report during Tabasco tour
May 23–24, 2026
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Moody's downgrades Mexico sovereign debt to Baa3; CFE and eight banks follow in cascade
May 20–22, 2026

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Brazil flag Brazil

The first post-scandal polls confirm what Lula’s camp had hoped: the Vorcaro affair broke Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy. What they reveal beyond that is less comfortable. Datafolha’s May 20–22 survey of 2,004 voters — the first conducted entirely after the audio recordings that detonated the scandal — shows Lula leading in the first round 40% to 31%, a 9-point gap that had been only 3 points before. The second round stands at 47% to 43%. AtlasIntel, surveying over 5,000 respondents a week earlier, found a similar picture. The shift is real. But Lula’s government approval remains net negative — 38% rate it negatively — confirming that he is winning by default rather than by merit. That distinction matters most in the second round. Datafolha also tested Michelle Bolsonaro as a potential replacement and found her trailing Lula 48% to 43% — nearly identical to Flávio’s numbers. The right’s ceiling appears to be about 43%, whoever leads the ticket. Meanwhile, 88% of Flávio’s own voters want him to stay in the race. The scandal has not broken the movement; it has broken the candidate. Veja reported that his communications director, known as Marcelão, was fired amid shouting, table-pounding, and finger-pointing. Duda Lima, the Liberal Party (PL) campaign strategist, explained why he would not manage the campaign. Financial market figures are calling Flávio “toxic.” He has been wearing a bulletproof vest and limiting public appearances, while travelling to São Paulo to shore up business support. Reuters reported Flávio was expected to fly to Washington on May 25, ahead of a possible White House meeting the following week; his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has lived in the United States since last year, arranged the invitation. The Lula government will not seek to block the visit, but senior officials told BBC Brasil they will watch whatever signals the American president sends before deciding how to respond. A Lula official called the trip a bid to shift attention from the scandal. Eduardo drew separate attention: he reportedly called US law enforcement on an Intercept Brasil journalist near his Texas home — a striking move, given that the Intercept’s reporting on the Vorcaro affair triggered the campaign crisis. Lula’s own position is also under pressure. The Workers’ Party (PT) confirmed that Rodrigo Pacheco, its preferred candidate for the governorship of Minas Gerais — Brazil’s second-largest electoral college — will not run, forcing the party to restart its search. Names under discussion include Alexandre Kalil, Josué Gomes da Silva, and Gabriel Azevedo. In São Paulo, the country’s largest electoral college, Tarcísio de Freitas, the state’s governor, leads Fernando Haddad 47% to 33% in polls, with coalition partners pressing for clarity on Haddad’s ticket. Lula hinted that Haddad might be destined for a “higher leap” without specifying what he meant. In Rio, Lula attacked at an Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) event on May 23, telling Ricardo Couto, the state’s interim governor, to “work to arrest the thieves and militiamen who governed this state and the deputies who are part of an organized militia.” The state assembly, controlled by Douglas Ruas — a Bolsonaro ally who chairs it and is being discussed as the family’s candidate for the October governor’s race — fired back with an institutional note calling it “unacceptable to generalize or criminalize” its members. Lula gained a campaign line and a legislative enemy at a stroke. In the courts, the national public defender’s office told the Supreme Court that Justice Alexandre de Moraes cannot preside over the case against Eduardo Bolsonaro — a recusal challenge that could reshape the January 8 proceedings if accepted. Separately, Justice Luiz Fux voted to maintain the detention of Vorcaro’s father and cousin, while the Federal Police asked the court to return Vorcaro himself to federal prison. One risk is building quietly. Petrobras has been absorbing roughly a billion dollars in losses selling gasoline below market prices, and an increase of more than 15% had been expected. No announcement came this week, or the week before. The timing coincides neatly with the peak of Vorcaro coverage. Whether the government is managing the calendar or has decided to extend the subsidy, every additional week of delay deepens Petrobras’s losses and makes the eventual price shock harder to absorb politically.
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Flávio Bolsonaro campaign in freefall after Dark Horse/Vorcaro audio revelations
May 21–24, 2026
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Datafolha shows Lula widening 2026 presidential lead as Flávio loses ground after scandal
May 19–24, 2026
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Lula's Rio visit triggers political controversy after remarks branding ALERJ legislators 'milicianos'
May 23–24, 2026
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PT scrambles to assemble 2026 state electoral coalitions after Rodrigo Pacheco declines Minas Gerais candidacy
May 18–24, 2026
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Fernando Haddad builds São Paulo gubernatorial campaign amid Tarcísio polling lead and ticket uncertainty
May 18–24, 2026

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Chile flag Chile

Chile’s president fired his security minister after 69 days — the earliest cabinet reshuffle in modern democratic history — while the state copper company’s production scandal deepened into a crisis that his own economy minister called “out of control.” Trinidad Steinert, a prosecutor by training with no security management experience, fell after a disastrous appearance before congress on May 12, where congress twice refused her permission to use a PowerPoint and she read her answers from notes. José Antonio Kast replaced her with Martín Arrau and handed Claudio Alvarado, already interior minister, the security portfolio as well. An insider account in La Tercera revealed that Mr Kast initially resisted the change — the appointments had been his own — but his inner circle, including Mr Alvarado, Alejandro Irarrázaval, Cristián Valenzuela, and Pía Adriasola, the first lady, pushed him to act ahead of the June 1 Cuenta Pública, the president’s annual address to congress. One outlet summarised the result plainly: “Kast presses on without the parties.” The political cost is mounting. Approval sits at 32–37%, depending on the poll, with 49% disapproving and 57% saying Mr Kast has not met expectations on security — the issue he ran and won on. Even the 72% who endorsed the reshuffle did not lift his numbers: undecided voters keep breaking against him rather than for him. Coalition friction has turned formal. Evelyn Matthei’s public criticism of the original Steinert appointment drew a rebuke from her own party, the Liberty and Development Party, which did not want an ally attacking the government in public. More unusually, the governing coalition handed Mr Kast a written list of demands ahead of his annual address. When a government’s own allies make formal demands after less than three months in office, the strain is real. At the same time, Codelco — the state copper company that generates roughly a fifth of government revenue — is in open crisis. What began last week as an apparent overstatement of roughly 20,000 tonnes at one division has grown: auditors confirmed the fraud ran across two divisions, Chuquicamata and Ministro Hales, totalling approximately 26,875 tonnes of output that was never produced. The board fired one senior executive, referred others to prosecutors, and hired KPMG for an independent audit. It then ordered more than 6,000 workers and managers to return performance bonuses totalling US$14.3 million — bonuses paid against targets that were artificially met. Unions declared a state of alert and threatened work stoppages. Daniel Mas, the economy minister, said the situation was “unacceptable” and that “Codelco is out of control.” Bernardo Fontaine, the incoming board chair, named the KPMG audit as his first act. Mr Mas’s declaration may partly reflect a deliberate political strategy — loading blame onto the outgoing board’s tenure to insulate Mr Kast ahead of the annual address — but the disruption risk at the world’s largest copper producer is real regardless of motive. Iván Arostíca, a former president of Chile’s Constitutional Tribunal and a gun collector, shot and killed an alleged burglar who broke into his home in Santiago. Opposition politicians seized on the incident as evidence that citizens are arming themselves because the government has no concrete security plan — the same argument that drove Ms Steinert’s removal. The incident did not change the security picture, but it reinforced the week’s central story: that Mr Kast is in trouble on the issue he was elected to fix. One commitment made abroad has quietly lapsed. After a May 10 meeting with Isaac Herzog, Israel’s president, Mr Kast said he would announce the appointment of an ambassador to Tel Aviv “within weeks.” Two weeks later, no announcement has come. That commitment had been the clearest signal of a shift in Chile’s diplomatic posture under Mr Kast; failing to deliver weakens the case that it represented a durable change rather than a gesture for domestic consumption. Efforts to restore consular ties with Venezuela have produced nothing for five weeks. The June 1 annual address is the most consequential moment the administration has yet faced. The government is billing it as the launch of a “second phase.” Whether it amounts to a genuine new start will depend on what Mr Kast delivers — and whether the coalition members who have already handed him a list of demands find it sufficient.
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Kast's first cabinet reshuffle at 69 days triggers approval drop, broad opposition criticism, and coalition friction
May 19–24, 2026
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Codelco production overstatement scandal: executive fired, 6,000 workers ordered to return \$14.3M in bonuses, criminal referral filed
May 20–24, 2026