Regional Summary
A Week of Convenient Boldness Governments across the Indo-Pacific acted boldly this week, but only where it cost them least. From Jakarta to Canberra, leaders showed strength abroad while cutting their plans at home. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president, is the clearest case. In one week he attended a peace summit in Washington, offered himself as a mediator between America, Israel and Iran, signed a semiconductor deal in London, and confirmed troops would deploy to Gaza. Yet he scrapped a 105,000-truck order from Indian manufacturers after domestic industry lobbied against it. The truck reversal was minor in dollar terms, but it exposed Mr Prabowo’s real constraints: not in the capitals he visited but at home, where even an ambitious president cannot be seen importing vehicles his own industrialists want to build. His mediation offer, by contrast, costs nothing until someone accepts it. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s president, showed the same pattern. His use of “mainland China”—language Taiwan’s independence camp has long avoided—was not conviction but tactics, timed to smooth a Trump-Xi summit. Mr Lai can afford the softer words because Taiwan’s real leverage keeps hardening: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s market cap crossed $2 trillion, and the company is speeding expansion at home rather than scattering its factories abroad. As long as Taiwan’s chip dominance grows at home, its president can murmur whatever formula Washington wants without weakening the island’s hand. Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister, pushed furthest, winning approval to export lethal weapons for the first time since 1945 and advancing intelligence reforms that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Yet even she hedged at home, naming dovish academics to the Bank of Japan’s board to keep money policy loose—a signal that her security revolution will be paid for by easy money rather than fiscal discipline. The mix is powerful but fragile: protests against constitutional revision, though modest, remind her that the public tolerance backing her plans is borrowed, not earned. Her gift-catalogue controversy was trivial, but it showed how quickly the old Liberal Democratic Party playbook of patronage can distract from real change. Lee Jae-myung, South Korea’s president, riding a 58% approval rating against a shattered opposition, faced the fewest constraints of any leader in the region—and used his freedom to grab judicial control at home while performing statesmanship abroad. He rammed his law targeting judicial misconduct through a 24-hour filibuster—the week’s clearest example of power used without diplomatic cost: no foreign partner will object to what looks like an anti-corruption measure, even as South Korean prosecutors see it as a leash. Mr Lee’s AI-generated video for Brazil and his Independence Day appeal to Pyongyang were exercises in image, not risk. Across five capitals, leaders spent the week building foreign-policy credentials—military exports, peace brokerage, alliance spending, diplomatic upgrades—while carefully avoiding the fights that would test whether their boldness is more than show. The region’s governments are growing more assertive on the world stage precisely because assertiveness abroad remains cheaper than reform at home. The danger is that one day the costs will all come due at once.Country Summaries
Indonesia
Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president, offered to fly to Tehran to mediate between the United States, Israel and Iran — even as Indonesia joins a US-led Board of Peace initiative.
Mr Prabowo toured Washington for the first Board of Peace summit, where he met Donald Trump, then visited the UK, Jordan and UAE. Back home, he offered to broker talks between Washington, Israel and Iran. The Indonesian Ulema Council urged the government to quit the Board of Peace in response.
Indonesia is also building tech skills through deals abroad. The country’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara signed a deal with UK chip designer Arm Limited to develop semiconductor technology and train 15,000 engineers. The government will create six chip designs for sectors from cars to quantum computing, using intellectual property that Indonesia will own. Mr Prabowo watched the signing during his UK visit.
But his government caved under pressure at home, scrapping an order for 105,000 trucks from India’s Tata Motors and Mahindra. The vehicles were meant for the president’s community programme.
The opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle boycotted government programmes, ordering members not to profit from his free meals scheme. The party also attacked the use of education funds to pay for the meals, though parliament — including party representatives — had approved the spending.
Social media users mocked Joko Widodo’s house in Solo, renaming it “Solo Wailing Wall” on Google Maps. Analysts called it political satire over the handover from the former president to Mr Prabowo.
The military keeps expanding its role despite opposition. Plans to send Indonesian troops to Gaza as part of an international force linked to the Board of Peace drew criticism from retired officers and civil society groups over constitutional concerns. But the Indonesian military confirmed the first 1,000 troops are preparing to reach Gaza by April.
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- Prabowo completes international tour including Board of Peace summit and bilateral meetings — President Prabowo Subianto completed a multi-country tour to the US, UK, Jordan, and UAE, attending the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington and holding bilateral meetings including with President Trump. He returned to Indonesia on February 27 and held cabinet meetings to discuss outcomes. (mediaindonesia.com)
- Prabowo offers to mediate US-Israel-Iran conflict amid escalating tensions — President Prabowo offered Indonesia’s services to mediate conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran, stating readiness to travel to Tehran if parties agree. This follows escalating military tensions in the Middle East. MUI urged Indonesia to withdraw from the Board of Peace in response. (news.detik.com)
- Indonesian court sentences nine in major Pertamina corruption case — An Indonesian court sentenced nine people, including two former Pertamina unit CEOs, to prison terms ranging from 9-15 years in a major corruption case involving $17 billion in state losses. The case involved illegal oil imports, fuel terminal leasing, and mismanagement of oil products. (reuters.com)
- Bank Indonesia opens currency exchange service for Ramadan and Eid — Bank Indonesia launched the SERAMBI 2026 program for exchanging new currency notes ahead of Ramadan and Eid celebrations. The service operates through online booking via PINTAR BI platform, with quotas quickly filling up for Java region. Citizens can exchange up to Rp 5.3 million in new bills. (stekom.ac.id)
- Major banks bid for HSBC Indonesia retail assets — Several major Asian banks including DBS, OCBC, UOB, CIMB, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group are preparing bids for HSBC’s retail banking assets in Indonesia. The valuation is estimated above $200 million as global banks seek to expand in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. (bloomberg.com)
- Political party activities and internal governance issues — Various political party activities including Golkar addressing a governor’s expensive car purchase, internal party meetings and leadership discussions, and PDI-P criticism of government policies. Parties also engaged in discussions about the free meals program and political positioning. (liputan6.com)
- Various TNI military activities and personnel issues — Several military-related developments including TNI coordination meetings, cooperation discussions with neighbouring countries, personnel misconduct cases, and debates over military involvement in counter-terrorism operations. Also included updates on military peacekeeping operations and training. (news.detik.com)
Notes
Notes
Prabowo completes international tour including Board of Peace summit and bilateral meetings
February 22–27, 2026
Prabowo offers to mediate US-Israel-Iran conflict amid escalating tensions
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Danantara signs semiconductor partnership and announces other major deals
February 22 – March 01, 2026
Other
Taiwan
Lai Ching-te used the phrase “mainland China” repeatedly at a Lunar New Year event with Taiwan businesspeople, a shift from his usual references to “China”. Analysts say the change reflects American pressure before a Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31-April 2.
Washington wants Taiwan to avoid provocative rhetoric before the meeting. Mr Lai has kept Taiwan aligned with American crisis management, receiving briefings on the US-Iran conflict and instructing agencies to track developments and contact allies.
Even as Taiwan moderates its tone, its economic leverage is growing. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit a $2 trillion market capitalisation on strong demand for AI chips. The company is speeding up domestic expansion with up to ten facilities targeted for 2026 and drew $2.77 billion in foreign investment in a single day. The expansion reinforces Taiwan’s chip dominance at home rather than accelerating the overseas shift that could weaken the island’s strategic position.
Chinese military pressure continues. Taiwan detected 28 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft sorties with 22 crossing the median line into Taiwan’s air defence zone, along with five naval vessels operating around the island. The defence ministry monitored the activity. Mr Lai also announced that the National Security Bureau is forming a task force to fight Chinese attempts to manipulate Taiwan’s upcoming local elections.
Mr Lai hosted the first New Year tea gathering with heads of all five government branches, where he agreed to deliver a national affairs report to the Legislative Yuan in a question-and-answer format. The agreement points to cooperation despite the constitutional crisis. But tensions persist: Cho Jung-tai, the premier, ordered government agencies to stop providing information to a Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) legislator whose eligibility to serve is disputed over citizenship concerns.
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- Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai wins fraud appeal in rare legal victory — Hong Kong’s Court of Appeal overturned pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai’s fraud conviction and prison sentence, in a surprise legal decision. The 78-year-old remains detained on separate national security charges. (bbc.com)
- Opposition parties coordinate on local elections and defense budget proposals — The Kuomintang (KMT) announced it will reveal mayoral candidates for New Taipei, Yilan and Chiayi on March 11, then begin cooperation talks with the Taiwan People’s Party. The KMT also plans to propose its own version of the special defence budget and legislative oversight for chip technology exports. (taipeitimes.com)
Notes
Notes
President Lai responds to US-Iran strikes with security briefings and regional monitoring
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Premier Cho orders information restrictions for China-born TPP legislator pending eligibility review
February 25–26, 2026
Opposition parties coordinate on local elections and defense budget proposals
February 22 – March 01, 2026
NSB forms task force to prevent foreign election interference ahead of local elections
February 24, 2026
Other
Japan
Japan approved exports of lethal weapons for the first time since the Second World War, as the governing Liberal Democratic Party voted to scrap restrictions that had limited military exports to non-lethal items like radios and trucks. The LDP now wants to sell fighter jets and destroyers to countries with defence agreements.
The LDP also approved a broader security overhaul: plans to upgrade Japan’s intelligence bureau, force foreign agents to register with the government, and ban personal electronics from government buildings. The proposals will go to Sanae Takaichi next month, giving her the tools to push Japan further from its post-war pacifist identity.
Even as she advanced these security changes, Ms Takaichi faced the first serious political test of her tenure. Opposition parties accused her of corruption after she gave ¥30,000 gift catalogues to 315 LDP lawmakers after her election victory. The move recalled the slush fund scandals that damaged previous LDP leaders, but Ms Takaichi dismissed the criticism, saying the gifts were legal and paid for with party funds. The controversy has not dented her approval ratings.
Ms Takaichi also moved to strengthen her governing coalition. The Japan Innovation Party agreed to put one of its members in her cabinet during an upcoming reshuffle. The move gives her extra support in parliament even though the LDP already has a majority, and could help when she tries to change the constitution.
She continued reshaping economic policy through personnel choices, nominating two pro-stimulus academics to the Bank of Japan’s board. The appointments weakened the yen and boosted stock prices, signals that investors expect easier monetary policy to support her spending plans. Large protests in Tokyo against her constitutional revision efforts showed opposition, but the demonstrations appeared smaller than past protests and did not slow her legislative agenda.
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- LDP approves proposal to ease restrictions on lethal weapons exports — The ruling LDP approved a proposal to remove restrictions limiting defence equipment transfers to non-lethal categories. The change would allow exports of fighter jets and destroyers to countries with defence cooperation agreements, marking a major shift in Japan’s defence export policy. (www3.nhk.or.jp)
- PM Takaichi opposes changes to male-only imperial succession rules — Prime Minister Takaichi stated her opposition to changing Japan’s male-only imperial succession system during Diet proceedings. Her comments addressed ongoing debate about allowing female succession, with Emperor Naruhito having only one daughter, Princess Aiko. (japantimes.co.jp)
- Imperial family to visit Tohoku region on disaster anniversary — Emperor Naruhito, Empress Masako, and Princess Aiko will visit three Tohoku prefectures in March and April 2026 to mark 15 years since the Great East Japan Earthquake. The visits will focus on reconstruction progress and meeting with disaster-affected residents. (japantimes.co.jp)
- LDP proposes mandatory reporting requirements for foreign agents — The LDP drafted recommendations for examining whether existing laws are sufficient to detect foreign intelligence activities and considering new legislation requiring foreign agents to register. The proposal is part of broader counter-intelligence efforts. (japantimes.co.jp)
- Keidanren postpones private meeting with activist investor Elliott — Japan’s largest business lobby Keidanren postponed a scheduled private meeting with activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management, citing ‘various reasons.’ The meeting was planned amid Elliott’s campaigns targeting Japanese companies including Toyota. (marketscreener.com)
Notes
Notes
Other
South Korea
Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating hit 58.2% for the fourth consecutive week while his opposition collapsed to a record-low 17%. The gap gives him a free hand to push through changes to the courts and expand South Korea’s diplomatic ties.
The People Power Party’s collapse deepened this week. Internal splits over ties to Yoon Suk-yeol, the convicted former president, drove the party’s approval 28 percentage points behind Mr Lee’s Democratic Party. While the opposition mounted a 24-hour filibuster, Mr Lee’s coalition forced through a bill that makes it a crime for judges and prosecutors to deliberately misapply the law, with penalties of up to 10 years in prison. The opposition called it a “malicious law” that undermines the courts, but Mr Lee’s legislative majority pushed it through.
Mr Lee used his stronger position to expand South Korea’s diplomatic ties. He upgraded relations with Brazil to a strategic partnership, focusing on critical minerals and technology, and posted an AI-generated video highlighting his shared factory-worker background with Lula. He then left for state visits to Singapore and the Philippines, seeking partnerships on artificial intelligence, renewable energy and defence. In his March 1 Independence Day speech, Mr Lee cast himself as a regional peacemaker, urging North Korea to return to talks with Washington while promising closer ties with Japan.
On the economy, Mr Lee changed little. The Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting while introducing a new system for signaling future rate moves. Mr Lee showed his commitment to housing policy by listing his Bundang apartment for 2.9 billion won, below market value, while urging owners of multiple homes to sell before capital gains tax breaks end in May.
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- Lee Jae-myung joins TikTok as part of expanded social media strategy — Lee Jae-myung launched an official TikTok account on February 28, expanding his social media presence beyond traditional platforms. The move is part of his efforts to communicate directly with the public, continuing his strategy of governing through social media engagement that began during his mayoral days. (koreatimes.co.kr)
- Yoon Suk-yeol appeals life sentence for insurrection — Yoon Suk-yeol, the former president, appealed his life sentence for leading an insurrection related to his December 2024 martial law declaration. Both Mr Yoon’s defence team and the special counsel have filed appeals of the February 19 ruling, with his lawyers citing ‘factual errors and legal misunderstandings’ in the initial verdict. (apnews.com)
- Samsung unveils Galaxy S26 series with AI features and privacy display technology — Samsung Electronics announced the Galaxy S26 series at Galaxy Unpacked 2026 in San Francisco on February 25, featuring advanced AI capabilities and introducing the world’s first built-in Privacy Display for mobile phones. The series includes the S26, S26 Plus, and S26 Ultra models with enhanced camera systems and intuitive AI experiences. (news.samsung.com)
- Lee Jae-myung orders forced sales of unfarmed land to curb speculation — Lee Jae-myung directed a comprehensive review and possible forced sale orders for uncultivated farmland, citing constitutional mandates for farmer ownership. The move faces criticism from the opposition as ‘communist-style policy,’ but Mr Lee defended it by referencing historical precedents from Syngman Rhee’s presidency. (chosun.com)
- Incheon Airport chief resigns after heated clash with Lee Jae-myung — Lee Hak-jae, president of Incheon International Airport Corporation, resigned on February 23, two months after a heated exchange with Lee Jae-myung. The resignation comes four months before the end of his term, with Lee Hak-jae having been appointed during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. (thestar.com.my)
Notes
Notes
Lee Jae-myung hosts Brazilian President Lula for state visit and strategic partnership agreement
February 23–25, 2026
Lee Jae-myung begins state visits to Singapore and Philippines for AI and energy cooperation
February 27 – March 01, 2026
Lee Jae-myung calls for North Korea dialogue and improved Japan ties in March 1 Independence Day speech
February 26 – March 01, 2026
Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.5% and introduces new forward guidance system
February 23 – March 01, 2026
Lee Jae-myung sells personal apartment below market value as housing policy gesture
February 27–28, 2026
Lee Jae-myung's approval rating rises to 58.2% amid stock rally and housing measures
February 23–27, 2026
People Power Party approval plunges to 17% amid internal conflicts over Yoon ties
February 27–28, 2026
Samsung unveils Galaxy S26 series with AI features and privacy display technology
February 25–27, 2026
US and South Korea announce March joint military exercises amid North Korea tensions
February 25–28, 2026
Democratic Party pushes through controversial judicial reform bills despite opposition
February 23–26, 2026
Other
Australia
Australia backed American and Israeli strikes on Iran this week, its most significant Middle East military stance since Iraq. Anthony Albanese, the prime minister, said Iran’s regime was “without legitimacy” and cited Iranian attacks on Australian soil, including the firebombing of a Melbourne synagogue. Australia did not take part but backed stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
The backing shows Australia moving from diplomatic commentary to supporting military action against a country. Even as Mr Albanese aligned with American operations in the Middle East, his government strengthened the US alliance through AUKUS. Australia committed $310 million for nuclear submarine reactor components, bringing total AUKUS spending past $4 billion as the first British nuclear submarine completed maintenance in Australia.
Both parties face domestic troubles. The Coalition under Angus Taylor, the opposition leader, remains stuck at 18-21% in polling, with One Nation ahead at 25-28%. The Liberal Party buried its election review to protect Mr Taylor and former leader Peter Dutton. Critics attacked Mr Albanese after he called child abuse survivor Grace Tame “difficult,” with Ms Tame rejecting his apology as “patronising.”
Big economic decisions continue. Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank governor, signalled more rate hikes may be needed, keeping Australia as the first major economy to tighten policy after the pandemic.
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Other Stories
- Albanese evacuated from Lodge after bomb threats linked to Shen Yun performances — Anthony Albanese was evacuated from his official residence for several hours on February 24 after receiving bomb threats connected to opposition to Shen Yun, a Chinese dance troupe banned in China and linked to Falun Gong. The threats were emailed in Chinese demanding cancellation of upcoming Australian performances. (theguardian.com)
- Angus Taylor rises to Liberal leadership, faces early polling challenges — Angus Taylor became Liberal Party leader after toppling Sussan Ley in a spill motion, but early polls show he has not boosted Coalition support while One Nation surges. Mr Taylor faces pressure over election review suppression and policy positioning. (abc.net.au)
- Penny Wong leads Australia’s diplomatic response to Iran crisis — Penny Wong, the foreign minister, confirmed Australia did not take part in US-Israeli strikes on Iran but backs preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons. She also warned Australians against travel to the Middle East and moved a censure motion against Pauline Hanson over anti-Muslim comments. (theguardian.com)
- ASIO begins process to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir under new hate laws — Tony Burke, the home affairs minister, revealed ASIO has advised that Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir meets the threshold to be banned under new hate group legislation established after the Bondi attack, with the listing process now underway. (abc.net.au)
- ADF deputy chief warns military has become ‘detached’ from reality of war — Major General Chris Smith delivered a scathing critique of the Australian Defence Force, warning that ‘managerial and advertising logic’ has polluted the military and that the ADF has become detached from the violent nature of warfare. (abc.net.au)
- Western Australian man arrested over alleged terror plot targeting mosques — Mr Albanese called the arrest of a Western Australian man over an alleged terror plot targeting mosques, police and parliament ‘deeply shocking’, with reports the plan specifically targeted the Muslim community. (reuters.com)
- Albanese government advances gas reservation scheme for Northern Territory — The Albanese government is set to capture the Ichthys LNG project near Darwin under its domestic gas reservation scheme, nearly two decades after Japanese backers moved the project to the Northern Territory to escape similar Western Australian policies. (afr.com)
- Labor caucus unity maintained at cost of left-wing dissent on foreign policy — Analysis reveals how the Albanese government maintains caucus discipline through factional management, with left-wing MPs largely staying quiet on issues like the ISIS families situation despite potential opposition to government policy. (abc.net.au)
- Liberal Party executive agrees to bury 2025 election review permanently — The Liberal Party federal executive decided to permanently shelve the Pru Goward and Nick Minchin review of the party’s catastrophic 2025 election defeat, protecting current leader Angus Taylor and former leader Peter Dutton from potentially damaging findings. (theguardian.com)
Notes
Notes
Albanese evacuated from Lodge after bomb threats linked to Shen Yun performances
February 24–25, 2026
Albanese faces backlash for calling Grace Tame 'difficult' in rapid-fire interview
February 25–27, 2026
Albanese backs US-Israel strikes on Iran, calls regime 'without legitimacy'
February 27 – March 01, 2026
Angus Taylor rises to Liberal leadership, faces early polling challenges
February 22 – March 01, 2026
RBA maintains hawkish stance as inflation data shows persistent price pressures
February 22–27, 2026
AUKUS submarine program advances with UK reactor parts purchase and submarine visit
February 22 – March 01, 2026
Coalition proposes criminalizing assistance to ISIS-linked Australians seeking return
February 22–28, 2026
Other