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Regional Summary

Europe’s Governing Classes Are Losing Ground Faster Than They Can Rearm Governments across western Europe are racing to show strength abroad while their domestic support crumbles. From France’s nuclear grandstanding to Britain’s by-election humiliation, the gap between military ambition and political authority is widening — and no leader can close it. Emmanuel Macron offers the starkest case. He will stand at the Île Longue submarine base to declare France Europe’s nuclear guardian, a claim boosted by American unreliability under Donald Trump. Yet three-quarters of French voters disapprove of this president. His party was shut out of Washington’s planning when America and Israel struck Iran. He could not prevent Mr Trump’s ambassador from snubbing the French foreign ministry. France produced a thousand military drones in under a year — impressive for a medium power — but Mr Macron attacked the European Commission’s decision to implement the Mercosur trade deal as “unacceptable,” revealing a leader who wields vetoes more easily than influence. Marine Le Pen, meanwhile, is calmly arranging her succession with Jordan Bardella, as though she were already president with only a court verdict standing in her way. Britain’s Labour Party lost one of its safest seats to the Green Party while Reform UK pushed it into third place, less than a year after its supposed restoration to dominance. Keir Starmer vowed to fight on, but his government’s response to the Iran crisis — allowing defensive use of British bases while refusing offensive strikes — captured the broader posture: partial commitment dressed up as principle. David Lammy, the foreign secretary, plans to clear eighty thousand court cases with artificial intelligence and fewer jury trials. The plan looks ambitious on paper, yet it arrives alongside a royal scandal, a chancellor with nothing to announce, and a prime minister whose authority ebbs with each vote count. The Bank of England hints at rate cuts, but easier money cannot substitute for political credibility. Germany shows how institutional safeguards can collapse when most needed. A Cologne court blocked the domestic intelligence service from classifying the Alternative for Germany as a confirmed extremist organisation, handing the far right a propaganda victory even as its own members resign over nepotism scandals. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, visited Beijing to complain about an eighty billion euro trade deficit and flew to Washington to manage tariff threats, projecting diplomatic seriousness. But his defence minister admitted the German army is “absolutely undersized” and below a “survival threshold,” while a drone purchase worth 540 million euros drew controversy because of a Trump-linked investor. Germany is simultaneously too weak to deter and too entangled to decouple. Italy and Spain complete the picture. Iranian missiles struck a Kuwaiti base hosting three hundred Italian troops, the most direct threat to Italian forces in years, yet a leaked defence document conceded that Italy’s 170,000-strong military needs to nearly double — over eighteen years and seven billion euros. Giorgia Meloni’s coalition is fraying as her party drops to 28% and a breakaway movement led by Roberto Vannacci peels off voters from both governing partners. In Madrid, Yolanda Díaz’s decision not to lead the left alliance into 2027 leaves a vacuum in the governing coalition just as Santiago Abascal purges Vox into a disciplined vehicle for far-right advance across Spain’s south. Polling shows Vox displacing the Socialists as the second party in provinces the left once owned. Even Scandinavia, with its strong institutions and high public trust, cannot escape this drift. Sweden’s navy disabled a Russian drone threatening a French carrier in its waters — an impressive debut as a NATO member — but the centre-right coalition’s poll numbers are sliding, the Liberal Party risks falling below the parliamentary threshold, and the Sweden Democrats are deferring contentious migration pledges until after the next election. Norway raised its Ukraine aid to twelve billion kroner while calling American strikes on Iran illegal, a posture that advertises moral seriousness but also diplomatic isolation. European governments are spending more on defence, talking louder about sovereignty, and losing the voters whose consent makes any of it sustainable. Military budgets can be legislated; legitimacy cannot.

Country Summaries


France flag France

France is becoming Europe’s nuclear protector in the biggest shift since Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic. Emmanuel Macron, the president, will outline the country’s role in European nuclear defence in a speech on March 2nd at the Île Longue submarine base, following talks with Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, about nuclear cooperation. This follows doubts about American reliability under Donald Trump. France is clashing more with Washington. Charles Kushner, the US ambassador, refused to come to the Foreign Ministry after embassy comments about the death of far-right militant Quentin Deranque. France temporarily barred him from direct government access. When America and Israel struck Iran this week, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, they did not tell France or ask for help. Mr Macron called emergency defence councils and called for a UN Security Council meeting. Mr Macron faces a domestic crisis. His approval ratings hit a record low, with 77% of French citizens judging him negatively. Only 23% consider him a good president — a sustained slump since the June 2024 dissolution. The opposition is preparing for 2027. Marine Le Pen said she would not campaign for president if sentenced to wear an electronic bracelet. The July 7th appeal verdict will decide whether millions who want to vote for her can do so. She and Jordan Bardella made a rare joint appearance at the Agricultural Salon, showing unity as Mr Bardella emerges as her likely successor. France is building the military muscle to match its ambitions. The country’s forces produced 1,000 military drones in under a year at less than 1,000 euros each, adapting rapidly to lessons from Ukraine. On economics, France remains defensive. Mr Macron attacked Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to apply the EU-Mercosur trade agreement provisionally, calling it an “unacceptable unilateral choice.” Both the National Rally and France Unbowed filed censure motions against the government over its energy strategy, but both failed by wide margins.
Macron announces new budget minister in government personnel changes
February 22, 2026

United Kingdom flag United Kingdom

Labour collapsed to third place in one of its safest seats this week, as the Green Party won its first Westminster by-election and Prince Andrew was arrested on his 66th birthday. Hannah Spencer won Gorton and Denton with 14,980 votes, pushing Labour behind Reform UK. She overturned one of Labour’s biggest majorities since the war in a seat the party had held for nearly a century. Keir Starmer vowed to “keep on fighting” but his leadership is under pressure. The royal crisis deepened. Prince Andrew was arrested for suspected misconduct in public office over his Jeffrey Epstein ties. King Charles issued a statement supporting the investigation, but royal expert Andrew Lownie warned the monarchy faces collapse and called for Charles to abdicate. David Lammy, the justice secretary, announced reforms to tackle court pressures. Courts would use more artificial intelligence, cut jury trials for cases carrying under three years, and sit more days to clear an 80,000-case backlog. The Law Society warned that decisions “with serious consequences” must be made by humans, but Mr Lammy cited Margaret Thatcher’s reforms as precedent. Mr Starmer let Washington use British bases for defensive operations against Iran while refusing to back offensive strikes. Iran fired missiles at British bases in Cyprus, with strikes in Bahrain landing several hundred yards from 300 UK personnel. John Healey, the defence secretary, vowed to deploy British troops to Ukraine before year-end following a peace deal. AUKUS deepened as HMS Anson arrived for the first British submarine maintenance in Australia. Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, hinted at rate cuts as inflation nears the 2% target, while Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, prepared a Spring Statement with no major announcements despite pressure after her party’s by-election defeat.

Germany flag Germany

Germany

Germany pursues an independent foreign policy through diplomacy with major powers, even as domestic politics weaken the safeguards against extremism. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, visited China and showed continued engagement despite trade friction, while criticism of Donald Trump’s Russia policy shows Germany pulling further away from Washington. Military modernisation continues with major arms purchases despite tension over foreign investment. A court blocked the intelligence service from classifying the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as extremist, removing a key monitoring tool while corruption scandals continue to damage the party—contradictory trends that give the far-right legal standing while undermining its credibility. Domestic regime — significant The Cologne Administrative Court weakened Germany’s system for containing extremism this week when it blocked the intelligence service from classifying the AfD as “secured right-wing extremist.” The court found insufficient evidence despite acknowledging “strong suspicion” of anti-constitutional activities. AfD leadership celebrated this as a “great victory.” The ruling removes a key tool for monitoring a party that holds 151 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. It comes as the AfD faces its most serious corruption scandal yet. The Bundestag held a debate on AfD cronyism this week, revealing multiple cases of party members employing relatives of other AfD politicians. Martina Uhr, a Bundestag member, was forced to resign from the Lower Saxony delegation. The party faces calls for resignations and internal investigations. These contradictory trends create uncertainty about the overall impact on the AfD’s standing. The party suffers credibility damage from corruption but gains institutional legitimacy through legal victories. Alignment/Diplomatic — minor Mr Merz completed his first visit to China as chancellor, meeting President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on February 24-26. He criticised Germany’s €80 billion trade deficit with China as “unhealthy” and blamed Chinese overcapacity, while announcing an Airbus deal and asking Beijing to use its influence to end the Ukraine war. The visit shows continued engagement despite rivalry. Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, accused Mr Trump of “buddy-like” behaviour with Vladimir Putin around the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion. He warned that Mr Trump’s approach undermines Ukraine support and NATO solidarity. The criticism shows Germany pulling further away from American positions under the new administration. Security/Defence — minor The Bundestag budget committee approved buying kamikaze drones for €540 million from German firms Helsing and Stark Defence. The purchase faced criticism over an investment by Peter Thiel, a Trump associate, in Stark Defence. The committee imposed additional oversight requirements. The procurement continues military modernisation despite political friction over foreign investors. Economic/Tech — none No significant developments this week. The structural tension between fiscal orthodoxy and eurozone integration remains unchanged. Institutional — none No significant institutional developments this week. Germany’s approach to institutional innovation within existing EU frameworks remains as previously assessed.

Presidential election date set for January 30, 2027 as Steinmeier palace renovation costs revealed
February 25–26, 2026
Iran crisis response: Wadephul rules out evacuation of stranded Germans from Middle East
March 01, 2026
Pistorius criticizes Trump's relationship with Putin on Ukraine war anniversary
February 24, 2026
CDU party congress in Stuttgart approves social media age limits and other policies
February 22, 2026
Merz meets Trump in Washington amid tensions over tariffs and Ukraine
February 27, 2026
Bundeswehr recruitment of minors reaches record high with over 3,000 17-year-olds
February 27, 2026

Italy flag Italy

Iranian missiles hit a Kuwaiti air base with more than 300 Italian troops this week, the most direct threat to Italian forces in years. The attack shows how Italy’s global military commitments expose it to conflicts it cannot control. No Italians were hurt when the missiles struck Al Salem base during Iran’s retaliation against US-Israeli attacks. But Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister, convened emergency meetings and prepared evacuation plans for 500 Italians in Iran. Antonio Tajani, the foreign minister, blamed Iran for provoking the attack, while Matteo Salvini endorsed the American action, saying “those who intervened did well.” The measured response alongside Mr Salvini’s hawkish stance followed Italy’s usual pattern: support allies while keeping the coalition together. The incident shows a deeper problem. Italy has 12,000 troops across 40 missions worldwide, but a leaked defence ministry document this week admitted that the country’s 170,000-strong armed forces are “absolutely undersized” and below the “survival threshold.” The ministry wants to add 100,000 soldiers by 2044, at a cost of up to €7 billion, nearly doubling personnel spending. The 18-year timeline shows Italy’s military challenge. External pressure is creating internal strain. Guido Crosetto, the defence minister, was stranded in Dubai with his family during the Iran crisis when flights were suspended. The Five Star Movement demanded his resignation, calling it an “institutional question” and evidence of government irrelevance. Mr Crosetto eventually returned on a military aircraft, paying triple the standard rate. The opposition questioned government competence during a security emergency. Coalition support continues to slide. New polling shows Fratelli d’Italia down to 28% and the Lega to just 6.1%, while Roberto Vannacci’s new party reached 3.6%. Mr Vannacci’s movement is drawing voters from both coalition parties, fragmenting the government’s right flank. Even the opposition Democratic Party fell to 20.7%, suggesting broader voter volatility. Yet institutions keep functioning. The constitutional referendum campaign is intensifying ahead of the March 22-23 vote on judicial reform, with polls showing 53.3% support for the government’s position. The competitive race shows democracy working normally despite the political pressure.
US-Israel attack Iran as Italian military personnel in Kuwait base hit by missiles
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Defense Minister Crosetto stranded in Dubai during Iran crisis sparks political controversy
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Political fallout continues over Rogoredo police shooting case as Salvini shifts positions
February 23–25, 2026

Spain flag Spain

Yolanda Díaz stepped back from leading Spain’s left alliance into the 2027 election, opening a leadership vacuum in the governing coalition just as the far right tightens its hold on the opposition. Ms Díaz, the second vice president, announced she would not stand as the left coalition’s candidate while remaining in government until the end of the legislature. Her decision creates succession questions for Sumar, the umbrella group she leads, and may allow Podemos to rejoin the alliance after being sidelined. Even as the left fragments, Santiago Abascal is tightening his control over Vox with purges. Mr Abascal forced out Javier Ortega Smith, the party’s Madrid spokesman, and José Ángel Antelo, its leader in Murcia, for defying his orders. Former leaders have criticised his “authoritarian leadership style,” but the purges leave Mr Abascal with near-total control of the party. The strategy appears to be working. Polling shows Vox displacing the governing Socialist Party as the second party in southern provinces including Almería, Málaga, Murcia and Alicante. The Socialists have lost 69 seats in regional parliaments since Pedro Sánchez struck deals with nationalist parties to stay in power, while the far-right party keeps gaining ground. The government declassified 153 documents about the failed 1981 coup attempt, revealing that six intelligence agents participated and later tried to cover it up. The armed forces face staff shortages, with personnel 13,000-23,000 below approved levels. Spanish banks reported strong profits, with BBVA handling €134 billion in sustainable business, up 44% from last year.
Pedro Sánchez denies cardiovascular health rumors after media reports spark political controversy
February 23–28, 2026

Norway flag Norway

Norway increased its military support for Ukraine to 12 billion kroner while condemning American and Israeli attacks on Iran as illegal — moves that put Oslo at odds with key allies. Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister, announced the drone and unmanned systems package during a visit to Kyiv on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, signing a partnership agreement with Volodymyr Zelensky. The trip included stops at Ukrainian training camps in Poland. Yet even as Mr Støre increased Norway’s support for Ukraine, Espen Barth Eide, the foreign minister, criticised the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, saying they were not justified as preemptive action and warning of escalation to a wider Middle East war. The government responded similarly at home, adjusting policy under pressure. Jens Stoltenberg, the finance minister, raised the wealth tax threshold from 10 million to 14 million kroner following widespread criticism of the housing wealth tax model. Parliament also agreed to investigate a lobby register for the first time in 25 years, with the Labour Party and Conservative Party switching positions after the Epstein scandal revelations. Only the Progress Party remains opposed to the measures. Parliamentary oversight of the Epstein affair continues, with the control committee receiving responses from Mr Støre and Mr Barth Eide but planning further hearings on unanswered questions. The scandal appears to have triggered other reforms — the lobby register proposal had been championed by the Liberal Party for decades without success. Norway’s institutions did well elsewhere. The Government Pension Fund Global posted a record $248 billion profit with a 15.1% return, with US tech stocks and AI investments leading the gains. The fund, now worth $2.2 trillion, has introduced AI-based screening for environmental and governance risks. Equinor is selling several Angolan oil fields to focus on growth in Brazil and the United States. Meanwhile, 25,000 Norwegian and allied soldiers began the Cold Response 2026 exercise, a major NATO training operation in the Arctic that runs until March 19.
Støre visits Kyiv on invasion anniversary, announces 12 billion NOK drone support package
February 22–28, 2026
King Harald hospitalized in Spain with infection, discharged after treatment
February 23–27, 2026

Sweden flag Sweden

Sweden used technical equipment to disable a Russian drone that approached a French aircraft carrier visiting Malmö, marking the country’s first documented operational response to Russian provocation since joining NATO. The naval vessel HMS Rapp intercepted the drone launched from the Russian intelligence ship Zhigulevsk as it neared the Charles de Gaulle. Pål Jonson, the defence minister, confirmed technical data showed Russian origin, while Ulf Kristersson, the prime minister, called it “Russian behaviour we recognise from other places” and “very difficult to see as coincidence.” The incident showed Sweden moving beyond routine alliance business to active joint operations with allied forces. Even as his navy was countering Russian probes, Mr Kristersson was showing Sweden’s alliance credentials elsewhere. He travelled to Kiev on February 24 for the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, meeting Volodymyr Zelensky and joining Nordic-Baltic leaders in the ceremony. Sweden is now the third-largest military donor to Ukraine, and Mr Kristersson said the country needed “more of everything” to make the war cost Russia “too much in money and lives.” He also criticised Hungary for blocking EU aid. When US-Israeli strikes hit Iran, Mr Kristersson convened the National Security Council while Maria Malmer Stenergard, the foreign minister, said Sweden supported the Iranian people against a regime that threatens “even Sweden” through criminal organisations. But at home, the Tidö coalition — the four-party right-wing government — faces pressure ahead of the September 2026 election. The coalition continues to disagree over revoking permanent residence permits, with Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, suggesting delays until after the election while maintaining controversial rhetoric. Mr Kristersson defended the government’s migration policy changes amid criticism over “teenage deportations,” showing tensions in the coalition over its defining policy area. Polls show close competition between Mr Kristersson and Magdalena Andersson, the Social Democratic opposition leader, for voter confidence, with Mr Kristersson’s Moderate Party around 17% — its second-worst showing since 2018. Separate polls show the Liberal Party risks falling below the parliamentary threshold, threatening the right bloc’s viability. The Wallenberg family is reportedly leading a consortium to secure 10 billion kronor in new capital for struggling steel company Stegra, with sources calling the family’s contacts with both investors and the state crucial for the rescue effort. The move shows the central role of the Wallenberg business empire in Swedish industrial policy during crisis periods.
Russian drone intercepted near French aircraft carrier in Malmö
February 26 – March 01, 2026
Ebba Andersson wins historic Olympic gold in cross-country skiing
February 22–24, 2026