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Regional Summary

The Decisive Drift Toward Security States When every government in a region puts war first, the question is no longer whether they take defence seriously but whether their politics can bear the weight. Volodymyr Zelensky replaced his chief of staff this week with his former spy chief, showing that Ukraine now treats peace talks as war by other means. Andriy Yermak, a political dealmaker, is out. Kyrylo Budanov is in. Mr Budanov’s opening position—that lasting security requires the dissolution of Russia as an empire—is not a diplomatic overture but a maximalist demand designed to anchor talks before they begin. The sequence of calls with Donald Trump, a planned Geneva meeting, a trilateral summit in Abu Dhabi, and Mr Zelensky’s media blitz all point to a country that has decided the next phase will be fought in conference rooms and television studios. The IMF’s approval of $8.1 billion in new financing suggests international institutions think Ukraine’s war economy deserves long-term backing, not just emergency relief. Poland offers the clearest case of how hard it becomes to sustain wartime discipline away from the front line. Karol Nawrocki, the president, is threatening to veto €43.7 billion in EU defence funding—the country’s largest-ever military modernisation package—over sovereignty concerns. Meanwhile, his own security services arrest a Belarusian spy targeting NATO infrastructure across three countries. Poland’s executive branch insists on maximum national defence while blocking the means to pay for it. The real driver is domestic: the government cannot override presidential vetoes, so every security question becomes a proxy fight between the ruling coalition and the opposition. Jarosław Kaczyński’s decision to haul his own former prime minister before an ethics committee for public dissent confirms that the Polish right is fracturing under the strain of being out of power in wartime, not uniting behind it. Andrej Babiš shows what happens when a new Czech government decides that fiscal discipline trumps alliance loyalty. He slashed €900 million from planned defence spending, dropping the budget to 2.1% of GDP—below the target his predecessor had set and well short of what Washington now expects. His government also stopped funding the Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine, a programme that had been one of Prague’s chief claims to relevance across the Atlantic. Mr Babiš’s coalition is expected to vote down lifting his parliamentary immunity in a fraud case. He treats the alliance as a menu from which to order selectively, keeping big-ticket items like F-35 contracts while trimming everything that lacks a domestic constituency. Whether Mr Trump’s Washington notices the gap between rhetoric and budgets will test how transactional the new American foreign policy really is. Finland and the Baltic states are resolving the same tension—between fiscal limits and security ambitions—through sheer effort of will. Alexander Stubb, the president, spent the week shuttling between Kyiv and Paris arguing that Ukraine can win, while at home his finance minister called new deficit projections “shocking” and demanded at least €10 billion in cuts over the next parliament. Estonia stumbled into a nuclear-weapons debate it did not intend to have, with the foreign minister floating the idea of hosting NATO warheads and the defence minister retreating within days—a revealing glimpse of how deterrence policy in small states can be made and unmade by a single interview. Lithuania is split between its foreign minister, who wants to join a US-led critical-minerals initiative to counter China, and its prime minister, who insists on waiting for Brussels. Each country is committed to security in principle but struggling with the machinery needed to deliver it. Romania’s ruling coalition is fraying over the budget even as drones from the Ukrainian war breach Romanian airspace and the air force scrambles jets in response. The Social Democrats threaten to leave government; the central bank warns that inflation may rise again in 2026; and the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians hovers in the background, ready to absorb disaffected voters. Yet Romania’s foreign-policy alignment with Washington has not wavered, and its military exercises with NATO allies continue on schedule. Every government from Tallinn to Bucharest has accepted that European security requires a permanent wartime footing, but almost none has a domestic politics capable of sustaining one without constant internal crisis. The constraint on eastern Europe’s defence is no longer willingness. It is governance.

Country Summaries


Ukraine flag Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelensky replaced his chief of staff with Ukraine’s former spy chief, putting Kyrylo Budanov in charge of the Presidential Office as the country prepares for peace talks with Russia and the United States. Mr Budanov, who ran military intelligence until his appointment this week, takes over from Andriy Yermak in Ukraine’s most powerful unelected position. The switch puts a security professional rather than a political fixer at the heart of government as Ukraine enters what Mr Budanov called a decisive moment in negotiations. He outlined Ukraine’s approach: Russia accepts American security guarantees for Ukraine, with deadlines for achieving peace. But he argued that lasting security requires the dissolution of Russia as an empire. The leadership change comes as Mr Zelensky increased diplomatic efforts with Donald Trump. The two men held a 30-minute call with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff participating. Mr Trump said he wanted to end the war as soon as possible; Mr Zelensky replied that only Mr Trump could make Vladimir Putin stop. They agreed on a sequence of talks: Ukrainian-American negotiations in Geneva, followed by a trilateral summit in Abu Dhabi in early March. Mr Zelensky also gave interviews to the BBC, CNN and Time on the war’s fourth anniversary. He claimed that Mr Putin had started a third world war and appealed to Mr Trump to visit Ukraine. He rejected territorial concessions, arguing they would only encourage Russia’s next move, and framed Ukraine’s fight as preventing global escalation. Even as it prepares for talks, Ukraine continues fighting. General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Air Assault Forces had retaken 400 square kilometres and eight settlements in the Oleksandrivka sector since late January. He said Russian losses this year had exceeded recruitment capacity, with 418,000 killed or wounded against 406,000 newly mobilised. Mykhailo Fedorov, the defence minister, set out a three-part strategy: achieving 95 per cent missile interception, stopping Russian advances across all fronts, and draining Russian oil revenues. The war economy remains stable. The IMF approved a new four-year programme worth $8.1 billion, with the first instalment of $1.5 billion due soon. Yuliia Svyrydenko, the deputy prime minister, also secured €100 million in EU energy aid and began planning for winter 2026-27. Anti-corruption efforts continued despite the leadership transition. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested the Air Force logistics commander and the head of its Zhytomyr regional office for corruption in a 1.4 billion hryvnia aircraft shelter project. The scheme involved kickbacks of 10-15 per cent and attempts to bribe military counterintelligence to stop the investigation.
Zelensky launches media offensive on war's fourth anniversary, claims Putin started 'World War III'
February 22–26, 2026
Budanov appointed as head of Presidential Office, outlines negotiation strategy and Russian empire dissolution
February 23 – March 01, 2026
Fedorov outlines Ukraine's three-point war strategy in first month as Defense Minister
February 22–27, 2026
Verkhovna Rada passes multiple laws on military service, social guarantees, and administrative reforms
February 23–26, 2026

Poland flag Poland

Karol Nawrocki, the president, is threatening to veto €43.7 billion in EU defense funding over sovereignty concerns, potentially derailing the country’s largest-ever defense modernization program. His chief international policy adviser said “everything is possible” about a veto of the SAFE program, though he stressed Mr Nawrocki is “not opposed” to defense investment itself. The threat comes as Poland’s political warfare intensifies. Unable to override presidential vetoes, the government is pursuing other ways to get its plans through. This week the Sejm passed a resolution declaring that judges to the National Council of the Judiciary should be chosen by the judicial community rather than parliament — a “Plan B” after Mr Nawrocki vetoed reform legislation. The vote was 237-199, with Law and Justice and Confederation opposing. Meanwhile, the opposition is fragmenting. Jarosław Kaczyński, the Law and Justice leader, referred Mateusz Morawiecki, the former prime minister, and two other senior figures to the party ethics committee for violating his ban on public disputes. The move follows growing splits between “moderates” and “hardliners” within the party, showing how far the right has shifted since losing power. Even parliamentary ethics have become weapons in the political fight. The Sejm Ethics Committee reprimanded Donald Tusk, the prime minister, for calling a Law and Justice MP “what a clown” during parliamentary proceedings. Law and Justice, Confederation, and PSL representatives supported the rebuke. Despite the political dysfunction, Poland’s security services remain active. The Internal Security Agency (ABW) arrested a Belarusian spy who had been targeting critical NATO infrastructure across Poland, Germany, and Lithuania. Separately, the agency detained the mayor of Częstochowa on corruption charges and disrupted attempts to smuggle drone equipment to Russia. Normal alliance behavior continues where domestic politics allows. When the United States and Israel struck Iran, Mr Tusk and Mr Nawrocki coordinated to ensure Polish citizens and embassy staff in Tehran were safe. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the defense minister, confirmed that Polish forces in Iraq and Lebanon were on high alert.

Czech Republic flag Czech Republic

Andrej Babiš, the Czech prime minister, cut his country’s defense budget below NATO targets this week, slashing €900 million from planned military spending and drawing criticism from Washington and NATO allies. Mr Babiš announced the country will reduce its 2026 defense budget to 2.1% of GDP, down from the previous government’s planned 2.35%. Petr Macinka, the foreign minister, said the cuts were needed to correct previous government “frauds” and protect other priorities. US and NATO allies have expressed concern about the Czech Republic’s commitment to NATO targets. The budget cuts are part of a pullback from foreign commitments. The government has also stopped funding the Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine, though it continues to coordinate the programme. Petr Fiala, the former prime minister, warned this approach will displease Donald Trump and called the defense cuts “extremely irresponsible.” He argued the initiative “makes the Czech Republic look good abroad” and that Mr Babiš cannot encourage others to contribute while contributing nothing himself. Jaromír Zůna, the defence minister, insisted the cuts will not threaten army modernisation projects. The €900 million reduction cuts military investment significantly, though major procurement programmes like the F-35 fighters continue under existing contracts. Even as it pulls back from some commitments abroad, the government is protecting its leaders at home. Parliament will vote March 5th on whether to lift immunity for both Mr Babiš, who faces charges in the Stork Nest case, and Tomio Okamura, the parliamentary speaker, who faces incitement charges over pre-election posters. The coalition majority is expected to refuse, shielding both from prosecution during their terms. The changes extend to media access. Mr Okamura, leader of the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, received an invitation to appear on Czech TV’s main political talk show after a nine-year exclusion. The invitation follows criticism from the broadcaster’s board and could normalise far-right voices in mainstream discourse. Meanwhile, the state farm agency announced it will review whether Mr Babiš’s trust fund structure for his Agrofert empire complies with conflict rules.

Finland flag Finland

Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, is campaigning to convince Washington that Ukraine can win the war. He visited Kyiv on the war’s fourth anniversary and met Emmanuel Macron in Paris, arguing that America has willing allies in Europe. He told reporters that Vladimir Putin had “failed strategically.” Finland’s Foreign and Security Policy Committee discussed Ukraine support and NATO summit preparation at its February 27 meeting. Mr Stubb’s activism marks a shift from routine consultation to trying to shape how allies think about the war. Even as Finland projects confidence abroad, it faces fiscal crisis at home. Riikka Purra, the finance minister, called new deficit projections “shocking” — deficits averaging 14.9 billion euros annually through 2030. She said the next government will need at least 10 billion euros in cuts. The crisis forced unusual cooperation. Parliament agreed on a debt brake requiring 8-11 billion euros in budget cuts, though the Left Alliance opted out. This comes as Finland’s economy grew just 0.2% in 2025, modest by European standards. Despite the fiscal pressure, the government is digging in on austerity. Petteri Orpo, the prime minister, told parliament that “no government decisions can be reversed” and defended spending cuts against heated opposition attacks. Yet Mr Stubb remains popular — he received 8.3 out of 10 in approval ratings, with half of respondents giving him a perfect score. Finnish forces are conducting Cold Response 26, a 25,000-soldier Arctic exercise with Nordic and NATO allies, plus five local exercises involving 3,500 troops alongside American forces. Reservists are receiving updated equipment including personal drones and night vision devices.
Cross-party debt brake agreement targets 8-11 billion euro fiscal adjustment
February 25–27, 2026

Estonia flag Estonia

Estonia’s foreign minister said the country could host NATO nuclear weapons this week; his defense minister then backed away from the idea. Margus Tsahkna, the foreign minister, said Estonia would not oppose nuclear weapons if NATO decided to put them there. Russia threatened that “our nuclear weapons will be aimed at the territory of Estonia.” Hanno Pevkur, the defense minister, then pulled back from Mr Tsahkna’s comments, exposing disagreement on deterrence. Mr Tsahkna also spoke about conflicts beyond Europe. He argued that weakening Iran’s regime would strengthen European security and criticised Europe’s lack of information about US-Israeli military objectives while supporting their goals. The government launched its crisis website to help Estonian citizens in the Middle East. Mr Pevkur was on holiday in Dubai when Iran launched strikes against Israel and the UAE. Social media mocked a defense minister abroad during a regional crisis. Critics said this exposed intelligence gaps. Kristen Michal, the prime minister, spoke about tensions at home in his Independence Day speech, warning of “heightened value conflicts in 2026” and calling Estonia an “aggressively future-oriented country.” Opposition leaders called the speech divisive and fear-mongering.

Lithuania flag Lithuania

Lithuania’s split over China policy turned concrete this week. Kęstutis Budrys, the foreign minister, wants Lithuania to join a US-led critical minerals initiative opposing Chinese dominance, but Inga Ruginienė, the prime minister, insists on waiting for the European Commission and acting with the EU. The split now shapes day-to-day decisions about US-EU positioning. Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former foreign minister, warned that Europe and America would notice any shift in Lithuania’s Taiwan policy, with Congressional delegations watching Lithuania’s China stance. The internal split has consequences for Lithuania’s place in the transatlantic alliance. Lithuania kept up security cooperation elsewhere. Ms Ruginienė joined her Latvian and Polish counterparts to sign a declaration on border security and hybrid threats. Separately, a US Army task force received Lithuanian military honours for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) training during their six-month deployment. Ignitis Group posted €546.1m in adjusted earnings, beating guidance, and agreed to sell 49% of its Vilnius plant to a Swiss fund for €120m. The state energy company also announced its first liquefied natural gas delivery to Ukraine’s Naftogaz. Law enforcement is investigating the financing of Nemunas Dawn, Ms Ruginienė’s coalition partner, after allegations of suspicious funding. The investigation puts more pressure on the government but does not threaten the coalition.
PM Ruginienė opposes US critical minerals initiative, favors EU approach
February 27, 2026
Ignitis Group reports strong 2025 results, sells stake in Vilnius plant
February 24–27, 2026

Latvia flag Latvia

Latvia’s leaders joined Nordic and Baltic allies in Kyiv to mark four years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, while at home the government approved more land for border defences. Evika Siliņa, the prime minister, travelled to Kyiv on February 24 with leaders from the Nordic-Baltic Eight to show support for Ukraine. Back in Riga, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the president, released a video calling for action against hybrid warfare. While Latvia commemorated the war abroad, it continued building defences at home. The defence ministry approved 717 land parcels covering 293 hectares for barriers on the eastern border. Andris Sprūds, the defence minister, said the first obstacles would be installed in March. Ms Siliņa also met Armin Papperger, boss of German defence contractor Rheinmetall, at the Munich Security Conference to thank him for investments in Latvia. Mr Rinkēvičs separately hosted Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s president, with both countries pledging to keep defence spending at 5% of GDP. Politics at home carried on as usual. Parliament fast-tracked changes to property law after a family case showed gaps in buyer protection. A new party announced it would contest October’s elections, criticising the government for avoiding hard decisions.
Siliņa and Rinkēvičs lead Latvia's commemoration of fourth anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine
February 23–25, 2026
Siliņa advocates for EU support to eastern border regions during Brussels visit
February 26, 2026
Government approves additional 293 hectares for anti-mobility infrastructure on eastern border
February 24, 2026
MP Jeļena Kļaviņa fined for insufficient state language skills
February 26, 2026
President Rinkēvičs supports rehabilitation of Soviet-era psychiatric repression victims
February 23, 2026
Czech President Pavel to visit Latvia in March
February 25, 2026
New party 'Development of Latvia' to compete in parliamentary elections
February 28, 2026
Siliņa discusses Rheinmetall investment at Munich Security Conference
February 26, 2026
Foreign Minister Braže emphasizes need for more agile NATO capabilities
February 27, 2026
Latvian Police assist in shutting down fraud network in Ukraine
February 23, 2026
Suspended judge continues working as judicial assistant despite fraud conviction
February 26, 2026

Romania flag Romania

Romania

Romania’s ruling coalition is falling apart. The Social Democrats are fighting among themselves while threatening to bring down the government over the budget, even as the country keeps its Western ties and military buildup. The crisis started inside the Social Democratic Party itself. Constantin Toma, mayor of Buzău, attacked Marcel Ciolacu, the former prime minister, asking: “Did you or didn’t you make a 9.3% deficit?” Mr Toma defended Adin Bolojan, the Liberal prime minister, against his own party’s attacks and warned that the Social Democrats’ fighting was losing voters to the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). He later made up with Mr Ciolacu, but the damage was done — local leaders were breaking ranks. The bigger threat came from Sorin Grindeanu, the Social Democrats’ leader. He said his party might quit government and threatened to block the budget unless they get what they want. The Liberals hit back, telling the Social Democrats to decide whether they were governing or in opposition. Both sides are now dug in, with the coalition’s survival hanging on budget talks. Romania’s central bank delivered more bad news, warning that inflation could rise again in 2026 because of commodity prices and other pressures. The bank kept interest rates at 6.5% and said the country needed to shift from growth based on spending to growth based on investment. The warning confirmed that Romania’s fiscal problems are far from over. Despite the domestic chaos, Romania’s foreign policy has not shifted. The country remains firmly aligned with the West, with Klaus Iohannis, the president, working closely with the Trump administration and expanding security cooperation with the FBI. The military continues its modernisation program with NATO and American help, carrying out routine exercises on the alliance’s eastern flank. Romania’s institutions are still working, as shown when the Constitutional Court approved pension cuts for magistrates. But the government’s survival now depends on whether the Social Democrats decide to stay or go.