Regional Summary
The Diplomacy of Ducking Iranian missiles and drones struck Saudi and Emirati soil this week. Israel and Iran exchanged fire. Every government caught in the middle responded not by choosing sides but by strengthening its network of hedged relationships. Multi-alignment — the art of keeping options open with everyone — has become the scaffolding that holds middle powers upright, tested under live fire and still standing. Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, lobbied Donald Trump in several calls to strike Iran while Saudi statements called for diplomatic solutions. His double game makes sense: he wants American firepower without appearing to have summoned it, keeping his standing with Gulf neighbours and leaving room to re-engage Iran later. Drones shut the Ras Tanura refinery — which processes 550,000 barrels a day — despite billions in defence spending, highlighting his bind. Mr bin Salman cannot defend his kingdom alone, yet cannot afford to look like Washington’s client. So he plays both hands, a trick that works only as long as neither audience compares notes. The UAE closed its embassy in Tehran for the first time since independence — a step that would once have meant decisive rupture. Yet while Mohammed bin Zayed, the president, condemned the strikes, he convened Gulf partners rather than acting alone, and the country’s technology sector barely paused. G42 unveiled a sovereign financial cloud platform and semiconductor governance structure that won White House praise — projects that depend on American trust. The embassy closure was punishment enough to satisfy domestic anger without ruling out future re-engagement with Iran. The Emiratis slammed a door they know has a handle on both sides. Narendra Modi addressed the Israeli Knesset this week — a first for an Indian prime minister — as Iranian missiles fell on Israeli and Gulf targets. Yet his foreign minister called Tehran. Mr Modi chaired a security meeting to assess threats to Indian nationals, hosted Mark Carney, Canada’s former central bank governor, to repair a separate diplomatic breach, and oversaw military exercises rehearsing lessons from a recent border standoff. India will deepen defence ties with Israel, maintain energy links with Iran, mend relations with Canada and reduce dependence on American trade, treating each relationship as a separate ledger. The approach works until the ledgers collide — a risk that grows with every regional flare-up. Turkey turned the crisis into a showcase for its own importance. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan telephoned Gulf royals and the European Commission president; his foreign minister spoke to counterparts from at least eleven countries. At home, the government filed fresh charges against Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s imprisoned mayor, while advancing a Kurdish peace process designed to win votes for constitutional change — domestic moves that require a stable external environment. Mr Erdoğan needs to be seen as a mediator abroad because his domestic control depends on a region that does not force him to pick sides. The week exposed not the fragility of multi-alignment but its deepening roots. Each government absorbed a shock — missiles, diplomatic ruptures, regional escalation — and responded by strengthening, not abandoning, its network of balanced bets. The risk is not that this structure collapses under a single blow but that its success encourages greater brinkmanship from aggressors who calculate, correctly, that no coalition of fence-sitters will unite against them.Country Summaries
Saudi Arabia
Iran struck Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones this week, forcing the shutdown of a major refinery and exposing gaps in the kingdom’s air defenses despite years of military investment.
The attacks targeted oil infrastructure across the kingdom, including the Ras Tanura refinery, which processes 550,000 barrels per day. Iranian drones penetrated Saudi air defenses and forced the facility to close as a precaution, though only minor fires broke out. The successful strike on critical energy infrastructure showed that Saudi Arabia remains vulnerable to the same type of attack that hit the Abqaiq plant in 2019.
Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, called regional leaders including the emirs of Kuwait and Qatar to coordinate a response. Donald Trump offered full US support and condemned the strikes as violations that threatened regional stability. The coordinated response with Washington and Gulf partners confirmed that Saudi Arabia’s main security ties remain with the United States.
Yet the attacks also revealed how Saudi Arabia’s careful balancing act works. The Washington Post reported that Mr bin Salman privately urged Mr Trump to strike Iran in multiple phone calls, even as Riyadh publicly supported diplomatic solutions. The crown prince reportedly warned that Iran would become more dangerous without decisive American military action, while his brother Khalid bin Salman, the defence minister, carried similar messages to Washington.
This private-public split allows Saudi Arabia to keep juggling — accepting US security guarantees while avoiding the appearance of pushing for regional war. The Iranian strikes tested this approach severely, but the kingdom’s response suggests the strategy remains intact.
Beyond the crisis, Saudi Arabia continued its economic diversification. Saudi Aramco started production at the Jafurah gas field, the Middle East’s largest unconventional gas project, and opened the Tanajib gas plant. The project should increase gas production by 80% by 2030 and generate up to $15 billion in cash flow. The gas will meet domestic demand and free up more crude oil for export.
The Public Investment Fund also injected another $267 million into LIV Golf, bringing total investment to $5.3 billion since 2021. The fund spends about $100 million per month on the golf league and could exceed $6 billion by year-end. The continued investment shows Saudi commitment to sports and entertainment as part of Vision 2030, despite fiscal pressures elsewhere.
At home, life went on. King Salman marked Saudi Founding Day with celebrations across the kingdom, saying the state was founded on justice and unification. Regional leaders sent congratulations highlighting Saudi Arabia’s global standing, and the events drew locals, residents, and tourists.
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- Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Saudi Arabia and Gulf states following US-Israeli attacks — Iran struck Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with missiles and drones in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Saudi Arabia confirmed attacks on Riyadh and eastern regions, with MBS conducting urgent phone calls with regional leaders and Trump offering US support. (english.alarabiya.net)
- Saudi Aramco halts LPG exports from Juaymah terminal after infrastructure damage — Saudi Aramco suspended LPG exports from its Juaymah facility after structural damage to the delivery system carrying propane and butane. The company declared force majeure on shipments, with deliveries cancelled for several weeks starting February 23. (thenationalnews.com)
- King Salman celebrates Saudi Founding Day with emphasis on justice and unification — King Salman praised Saudi Arabia’s history and achievements during Founding Day celebrations on February 22, emphasising that the kingdom was founded on justice and unification under one banner. The celebration received congratulations from regional leaders including King Mohammed VI of Morocco. (arabnews.com)
- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets Egyptian President Sisi during Ramadan visit — Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi for talks in Jeddah during a fraternal visit. They discussed bilateral relations, regional developments, and the President congratulated the Crown Prince on Saudi Founding Day, with meetings focusing on strengthening strategic alliance. (egyptianstreets.com)
- NEOM project faces scaling back amid budget constraints — Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megaproject faces significant scaling back, with the 2029 Asian Winter Games at Trojena cancelled and timelines stretched. Reports indicate the ambitious $500 billion project is being reviewed amid tighter fiscal conditions, with some sub-projects suspended or modified. (houseofsaud.com)
- Saudi Arabia announces $347 million financial support package for Yemen — Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman announced new financial support worth $347 million to Yemen for government employee salaries and budget relief. The aid reflects ongoing Saudi support to the Yemeni economy during the country’s challenging circumstances. (english.aawsat.com)
- Saudi Arabia reports widened budget deficit in Q4 2025 — Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit increased to 94.85 billion riyals ($25.28 billion) in Q4 2025, up from 88.5 billion riyals in the previous quarter. The widening deficit reflects continued expansionary fiscal policy to support Vision 2030 economic diversification amid oil price volatility. (reuters.com)
Notes
Notes
Iran launches retaliatory strikes against Saudi Arabia and Gulf states following US-Israeli attacks
February 27 – March 01, 2026
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately urged Trump to strike Iran, Washington Post reports
March 01, 2026
Saudi Aramco launches Jafurah shale gas project and starts production at Tanajib gas plant
February 26 – March 01, 2026
Saudi Aramco halts LPG exports from Juaymah terminal after infrastructure damage
February 25–26, 2026
Saudi PIF injects additional \$267 million into LIV Golf, total investment reaches \$5.3 billion
February 22–23, 2026
King Salman celebrates Saudi Founding Day with emphasis on justice and unification
February 22–24, 2026
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets Egyptian President Sisi during Ramadan visit
February 24, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
Iran fired more than 700 missiles and drones at the UAE over 48 hours this week, killing three people and forcing Abu Dhabi to shut its embassy in Tehran for the first time since independence.
The attacks on February 28 and March 1 targeted military bases and civilian areas including Saadiyat Island and Khalifa City. UAE air defences shot down 327 of the 706 projectiles — 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones — but 58 people were wounded and three died. Iran also launched what UAE officials described as massive AI-powered cyber attacks on government systems, which the UAE foiled.
The assault ended a rapprochement central to the UAE’s multi-alignment strategy. Mohammed bin Zayed, the president, closed the embassy and condemned the attacks as violations of sovereignty. But he also reached for his regional partners. Mr bin Zayed held phone calls with Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, and other Gulf leaders to coordinate a response. The Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency meeting condemning the strikes.
Saudi-UAE relations have been strained since December over proxy warfare in Yemen, but facing direct Iranian fire, both leaders stressed regional security cooperation. Gulf solidarity overrode bilateral tensions when the threat became existential.
Even as missiles fell, the UAE’s technological ambitions advanced. The Central Bank partnered with G42 to launch what it calls the world’s first sovereign financial cloud platform, a secure infrastructure with AI integration for the country’s financial sector. G42 also announced it had begun recruiting artificial intelligence agents for business roles and unveiled a framework to govern US-origin semiconductors. A White House official praised G42’s chip security approach as a model for others.
The UAE also pushed ahead with long-term plans. Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, the vice president, kept to his normal schedule, hosting Ramadan iftar banquets with government officials and judiciary representatives at the Emirates Palace Hotel.
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- Abdullah bin Zayed conducts working visit to Washington, meets senior US officials — UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed concluded a working visit to Washington February 23-27, holding bilateral meetings with US Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum, and other senior officials. Discussions covered strengthening UAE-US strategic ties and regional developments. (mofa.gov.ae)
- ADNOC maintains operations and increases oil supply amid regional tensions — Abu Dhabi National Oil Company confirmed operations continue without interruption despite Iranian attacks and regional tensions. ADNOC offered additional Murban crude volumes to partners ahead of OPEC+ meeting as oil markets responded to Middle East developments. (reuters.com)
Notes
Notes
Iran launches major missile and drone assault on UAE in response to US-Israeli strikes, killing 3
February 28 – March 01, 2026
UAE coordinates regional response with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states following Iranian attacks
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Abdullah bin Zayed conducts working visit to Washington, meets senior US officials
February 23–27, 2026
ADNOC maintains operations and increases oil supply amid regional tensions
February 25 – March 01, 2026
UAE Central Bank launches world's first sovereign financial cloud platform with G42
February 22–25, 2026
G42 announces recruitment of AI agents and new framework for US chip deployments
February 23–27, 2026
Sheikh Mansour hosts Ramadan iftar events with government officials and judiciary
February 22–27, 2026
Other
India
Narendra Modi became the first Indian prime minister to address the Israeli Knesset, raising ties to a ‘Special Strategic Partnership’ even as Iran and Israel traded missile strikes across the region.
Mr Modi’s two-day visit to Israel drew criticism for his silence on Gaza, but it marked deeper ties. He received the Speaker’s Medal and signed new defence cooperation agreements. The timing was bold: Iranian missiles had just hit Israeli and Gulf targets, yet Mr Modi pressed ahead with the visit while his foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, worked the phones with both Tehran and Jerusalem.
India’s response to the Iran-Israel escalation showed its balancing act. Mr Modi called both Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and the UAE president, while Mr Jaishankar spoke to his Iranian and Israeli counterparts. On March 1, Mr Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to assess the crisis and the safety of Indian nationals abroad. Ajit Doval, the national security adviser, and the service chiefs attended.
Even as India navigated Middle Eastern tensions, it was repairing damage closer to home. Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, visited New Delhi on February 28 for talks with Mr Modi, marking an improvement in ties after the diplomatic crisis over alleged Indian involvement in Khalistan activities. Mr Doval had earlier visited Ottawa, and both countries now want to reduce their dependence on US trade.
India’s military kept up its post-Sindoor modernisation. The air force conducted Exercise Vayu Shakti at Pokhran, with Droupadi Murmu, the president, watching simulated strikes that recreated elements of Operation Sindoor missions. The army held joint exercises with US and Japanese forces, while the government announced plans to expand military infrastructure in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
At home, opposition politics heated up. Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP chief, held a press conference after being cleared in the Delhi excise case, calling it the ‘biggest political conspiracy of independent India’ by Mr Modi and Amit Shah, the home minister. He claimed the case was fabricated to crush his party and announced his comeback, declaring that ‘Modi is corrupt’ and the ‘countdown for BJP’s downfall has begun.’ Meanwhile, the BJP launched its ‘Paribartan Yatra’ campaign for West Bengal’s assembly elections, aiming to cover 5,000 kilometres and reach 1.5 crore voters to challenge the ruling Trinamool Congress.
On the economy, the Reserve Bank of India held firm against industry pressure. Sanjay Malhotra, the governor, confirmed the central bank would not revise new lending rules for proprietary traders and brokers, which require 100% eligible collateral backing and ban financing for proprietary trading. The measures aim to cool India’s derivatives market, where retail investors have suffered heavy losses. Meanwhile, Gautam Adani reviewed projects worth more than Rs 40,000 crore in Jharkhand and Bihar, but his group faced continued international scrutiny. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund excluded Adani Green from its portfolio, and the US imposed 126% tariffs on Adani solar firms over their refusal to cooperate with a subsidy investigation.
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- Shah launches Bharat Taxi service as cooperative alternative — Amit Shah, the home minister, launched Bharat Taxi service Feb 23, allowing drivers to become co-owners by paying Rs 500. The cooperative model promises 80% profit share to drivers and aims to challenge existing ride aggregators. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Notes
Notes
Home Minister Shah conducts security review in Bihar, targets infiltration ahead of Bengal polls
February 26–28, 2026
India responds to Iran-Israel escalation with diplomatic outreach, CCS meeting
February 28 – March 01, 2026
Kejriwal launches attack on Modi and Shah after court clearance in excise case
February 27 – March 01, 2026
Other
Turkey
Istanbul prosecutors filed fresh charges against Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor, this week, adding vehicle misuse claims to the espionage case that has kept him in prison since January.
The new charges seek up to two years for allegedly using his company’s car as an official vehicle during his earlier tenure as Beylikdüzü mayor. Özgür Özel, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader, revealed the new case as prosecutors dropped one previous charge for “insulting” officials after an advance payment. The growing charges follow what opposition figures call the Demirtaş template — layering cases across different jurisdictions to ensure constant detention regardless of individual outcomes.
While eliminating electoral threats through the courts, the government is advancing the Kurdish peace process to secure votes for constitutional changes. The Democratic Equality and Peace Party (DEM) announced plans to restructure itself as part of the “Terror-free Turkey” process, changing its name to include “Democratic Republic” terminology and closing affiliated organisations like the DTK and DBP under a single umbrella. Devlet Bahçeli, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader, raised questions about closing Abdullah Öcalan’s status gap and called for dismissed mayors to return to their positions. Parliament’s Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission approved its report, moving the process to the implementation phase.
Turkey also acted as a regional broker during the Iran crisis. After joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, the emir of Kuwait, and Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission president, to push for diplomacy. Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, held calls with counterparts from seven countries — Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Egypt and Indonesia — plus additional conversations with officials from the UAE, Spain, Hungary and the EU’s foreign policy chief.
Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister, defended his stabilisation programme against internal critics, highlighting Turkey’s lowest inflation in 50 months. He said the government had taken “tax-like measures” against hot money inflows while the central bank announced new Turkish lira-settled forward foreign exchange sales and temporarily suspended one-week repo auctions.
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- Erdoğan celebrates 72nd birthday amid domestic and international congratulations — President Erdoğan turned 72 on February 26, receiving birthday wishes from world leaders, domestic politicians, and organizations. The occasion included special songs, videos, and gifts from coalition partner Bahçeli featuring Islamic world map imagery. (dailysabah.com)
- MHP leader Bahçeli supports Ramadan circular, attacks secularism declaration signatories — MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli strongly endorsed the Education Ministry’s controversial Ramadan activities circular for schools, while harshly criticizing the 168 intellectuals who signed a secularism declaration. Bahçeli said ‘if believing in Allah is being reactionary, then we are proudly reactionary.’ (haber7.com)
- Öcalan issues new message on anniversary of PKK disarmament call — DEM Party read a new message from PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on the first anniversary of his February 27, 2025 call for the organization’s dissolution. The message declared the end of the ‘violence-based era’ and called for transition to ‘positive construction phase.’ (haberturk.com)
- Foreign Minister Fidan conducts intensive diplomacy on Iran crisis — Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held phone conversations with counterparts from seven countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Egypt, Indonesia) following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Additional calls were made to UAE, Spain, Hungary, and EU foreign policy chief Kallas. (aa.com.tr)
- Central Bank announces new FX and monetary policy measures — TCMB announced it will begin Turkish Lira-settled forward FX sales operations to support healthy FX market functioning and limit volatility. The bank also temporarily suspended 1-week repo auctions and published new methodology for measuring core inflation trends. (bloomberght.com)
- CHP continues opposition rallies and parliamentary activities — CHP held the 93rd ‘Standing by People’s Will’ rally in Burdur, while continuing parliamentary opposition work. The party’s Bakırköy regional rally attracted thousands. CHP leader Özel announced a new roadmap to be revealed March 2 and faced investigation for his Burdur speech criticizing judiciary. (halktv.com.tr)
- Parliamentary commission report advances Terror-free Turkey process — The Parliamentary Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission’s report was accepted, moving the ‘Terror-free Turkey’ process to the legal implementation phase. Parliament Speaker Kurtulmuş met with party leaders to discuss next steps in what he called crossing a ‘vital threshold.’ (dailysabah.com)
- Football betting corruption investigation leads to arrest demands — Prosecutors prepared indictments seeking 4-13 years imprisonment for 34 suspects including Galatasaray’s Metehan Baltacı and Fenerbahçe’s Mert Hakan Yandaş in the football betting investigation. MHP leader Bahçeli praised TFF President Hacıosmanoğlu’s role in the investigation. (nefes.com.tr)
Notes
Notes
MHP leader Bahçeli supports Ramadan circular, attacks secularism declaration signatories
February 24, 2026
Other