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Regional Summary

The Week the Indo-Pacific Discovered It Was Already at War The Middle East conflict that erupted this week between America, Israel and Iran did not stay in the Middle East. Across the Indo-Pacific, governments that had spent years hedging between great powers found themselves forced into choices. On military posture, monetary policy, energy security and diplomatic alignment, the week’s events showed how thin the line between peacetime partnership and wartime commitment had become. Australia faces the starkest predicament. Three Royal Australian Navy submariners were aboard the American vessel that sank an Iranian frigate and killed 87 crew. Anthony Albanese, the prime minister, insisted they took no offensive action, a distinction that matters legally but not strategically: Iranian drones then struck Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai, where Australian forces are stationed, the first time Tehran has targeted Australians. Penny Wong, the foreign minister, proposed expanding military support to Gulf states while ruling out ground combat — a balance that assumes adversaries will respect fine print. Meanwhile, Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank governor, said a rate rise was now possible because oil-price spikes from the war were feeding inflation. AUKUS, sold to Australians as a submarine programme for deterring China, has delivered them into a shooting conflict with Iran. Japan’s response has been more deliberate but no less consequential. Sanae Takaichi, the prime minister, refused to offer a legal assessment of American-Israeli strikes, citing insufficient information — diplomatic code for wanting to say nothing before meeting Donald Trump on March 19. Yet her government moved fast on policy, submitting proposals to abolish the five export-control categories that have constrained Japan’s defence industry, and activating evacuation preparations for nationals across four Gulf states. Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan governor, warned that Middle East turmoil could delay further rate rises. Japan is not choosing sides; it is choosing capability, trusting that an expanded arms industry and a deepened alliance network — including a new strategic partnership with Canada — will keep options open regardless of which crisis comes next. South Korea’s exposure is more economic than military, but no less sharp. The KOSPI suffered its worst single-day crash in history, plunging over 12% as oil fears hammered Samsung and SK Hynix. The won breached 1,500 per dollar before the Bank of Korea intervened. The swift partial recovery suggests the sell-off reflected energy anxiety rather than structural rot, yet it showed how dependent Asia’s fourth-largest economy remains on stable Gulf oil flows. Lee Jae-myung, the president, riding a 65% approval rating after state visits to Singapore and the Philippines, has the political capital to absorb the shock — for now. His opponents in the People Power Party chose this moment to rally against his judicial reforms rather than unite behind him, a sign that South Korea’s domestic polarisation may prove harder to manage than any external threat. Taiwan and Indonesia, meanwhile, reveal how a distant war reshapes even those countries not on the front line. Cho Jung-tai’s visit to Tokyo — the first by a Taiwanese president since 1972 — was planned before the Iran crisis, but it landed in a world where Japan is loosening arms controls and deepening security ties: context that made a baseball game look like a strategic signal. At home, Mr Cho’s refusal to countersign opposition legislation and the stalemate over defence spending show an island whose institutional paralysis persists even as the security environment darkens. In Jakarta, Prabowo Subianto, the president, seized the moment to offer Indonesia as a mediator, consulting two former presidents before making the bid. The ambition is grand; the vulnerability is concrete. Two Pertamina tankers remained stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, a reminder that Indonesia’s energy lifeline runs through the war zone it aspires to pacify. Every government in the Indo-Pacific treated its American alliance, its trade dependencies and its diplomatic hedging as separate policies. This week proved they are not. A war in the Persian Gulf instantly became a monetary-policy problem in Sydney, a stock-market crisis in Seoul, a constitutional argument in Taipei and a stranded-tanker headache in Jakarta. The region’s leaders are not choosing whether to be involved; they are discovering they already are.

Country Summaries


Australia flag Australia

Three Royal Australian Navy submariners were aboard the American submarine that sank an Iranian frigate and killed 87 crew this week. Anthony Albanese confirmed the Australians were on the vessel as part of AUKUS training, though he said they “participated in no offensive action.” Australia is now part of American military operations. Iranian drones struck back at Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai, where 70-80 Australian Defence Force personnel run the country’s Middle East headquarters. All were safe, but the attack was the first time Iranian forces had targeted Australians in retaliation for operations Australia supports. Penny Wong, the foreign minister, said Australia might expand its role further, offering military support to Gulf nations facing Iranian strikes while ruling out ground combat. The Iran conflict reached into domestic policy. Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank governor, said the March interest rate meeting was “live” for a potential hike because oil price spikes from the Middle East war were affecting inflation. Markets repriced the odds of a rate rise from near zero to above 25%. The crisis is testing Australia’s political consensus as the opposition fragments. A secret Liberal Party review of the 2025 election campaign leaked this week, describing it as the “worst ever.” The 64-page document called former leader Peter Dutton “grim and introverted” and “unattractive to women,” revealing a “chaotic” campaign with a “broken” relationship between leadership and party organisation. Angus Taylor, the new opposition leader, stirred his own controversies. He called the 23 Australian children stranded in Syrian detention camps “ISIS sympathisers,” including what he termed “so-called children,” drawing criticism for attacking children in political rhetoric. Chinese military harassment of Australian forces continued. An Australian Defence Force helicopter had to take evasive action in the Yellow Sea after a Chinese helicopter moved dangerously close during UN sanctions enforcement. China accused Australia of “distorting facts.”
Australia supports US-Israeli strikes on Iran as conflict spreads across Middle East
March 2–8, 2026
Albanese defends living standards record in heated parliamentary exchange
March 05, 2026
Labor MP calls for Islamophobia to be added to Bondi royal commission scope
March 05, 2026
Other

Taiwan flag Taiwan

Cho Jung-tai, Taiwan’s premier, became the first leader to visit Japan since diplomatic ties were severed in 1972, attending a World Baseball Classic game in Tokyo despite Chinese protests. The visit broke a 54-year taboo. Japan called it private and agreed not to disclose details, but the symbolism was clear — the highest-level contact between the two governments since they cut relations. Beijing protested, but Mr Cho went anyway, showing how far Taiwan-Japan relations have shifted. Even as he made diplomatic history abroad, Mr Cho faced confrontation at home. He refused to countersign three legal amendments passed by Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature, saying they violated the constitution. The opposition responded by moving to condemn the premier, deepening the island’s institutional crisis. That crisis has paralyzed defense spending for months, but this week brought the first breakthrough. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) proposed its own defense budget of NT$380 billion, far below the ruling party’s NT$1.25 trillion plan, but all three competing proposals went to committee review. Wellington Koo, the defense minister, rejected the KMT figure as insufficient. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) announced plans to hire 8,000 workers this year at an average salary of NT$2.2 million, aiming to complete a new factory in Tainan by 2028. The expansion reinforces Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance through domestic investment rather than the overseas expansion that has worried officials. The trade relationship with America is now uncertain. The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs as unconstitutional, leaving Taiwan’s trade agreement unclear. Mr Cho told legislators Taiwan is waiting to hear from Washington about what happens next. The opposition parties are joining forces more formally. The KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) announced a joint policy platform for November’s local elections, turning their cooperation on the constitutional crisis into a broader political alliance.
KMT proposes alternative defense budget, sparking legislative battle over arms procurement
March 2–6, 2026

Japan flag Japan

Japan advanced plans to loosen its arms export rules this week, building on last month’s approval of lethal weapons exports while avoiding taking sides in the Iran conflict. The ruling coalition submitted proposals to abolish the five categories that limit defence sales, allowing Japan to export both defensive equipment and weapons with offensive capabilities. The move extends the expansion of Japan’s defence industry that began with February’s decision to allow lethal weapons exports. Meanwhile, the government activated Self-Defence Forces evacuation preparations for Japanese nationals in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, demonstrating the practical side of Japan’s expanded security role. On Iran, Sanae Takaichi chose her words carefully. The prime minister refused to give a legal assessment of American-Israeli strikes, citing too little information, but announced plans for “frank discussion” with Donald Trump when they meet on March 19. The approach shows Japan’s strategy of avoiding taking sides while maintaining alliance ties. While managing the Middle East crisis, Japan expanded its alliance network in other directions. Ms Takaichi and Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, agreed to upgrade their countries’ relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership status, signing the first joint statement to define cooperation across defence, energy and critical minerals. The move continues Japan’s diversification beyond its core alliance with the United States. The Iran conflict is already shaping Japan’s economic policy. Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan governor, warned that the Middle East turmoil could affect Japan through rising oil prices and financial market volatility, and urged caution about further interest rate increases. The central bank’s coordination with Ms Takaichi’s fiscal expansion agenda continues, now factoring in external risks. Japanese companies are responding to the prime minister’s investment push — the country’s biggest companies increased capital spending 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Ms Takaichi’s political management stayed steady. When someone created a cryptocurrency called “Sanae Token” using her name and likeness, she quickly disavowed any involvement and warned the public to be careful. The Financial Services Agency opened an investigation, and the creators announced the token would be renamed. The Liberal Democratic Party also showed flexibility, withdrawing a proposal for Saturday budget deliberations just one day after floating the idea when opposition parties complained about weekend parliamentary debates.

South Korea flag South Korea

South Korea

Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating hit 65%, matching his post-inauguration peak, as South Korea’s stock market had its worst crash ever before recovering. A Gallup poll put Mr Lee’s support at 65%, up from 64% in late February, with approval above 60% in most regions except conservative areas. Voters in their 40s and 50s backed him most strongly. The rise came as Mr Lee completed his first foreign trips as president, visiting Singapore and the Philippines to sign trade, energy, AI and defence agreements. In Singapore he held business forums and met officials; in the Philippines he reunited with a Filipino worker whose factory injury case he had won as a lawyer in 1992. As Mr Lee’s position strengthened, his opponents fought back against his judicial reforms. The People Power Party, the main opposition, staged rallies where 80 lawmakers protested three bills that the National Assembly had passed. They called the measures a threat to judicial independence and demanded that Mr Lee veto them. The protests show the division over his plans to reshape the country’s institutions. The KOSPI index plunged more than 12% on March 4 — its worst single-day drop ever — as Middle East war fears drove up oil prices and hammered Samsung and SK Hynix. The won weakened past 1,500 per dollar before the Bank of Korea activated emergency monitoring and the finance minister reassured markets about adequate reserves. The index then began recovering, suggesting the sell-off reflected external energy worries rather than problems with South Korea’s fundamentals. Mr Lee used his March 1 Independence Movement speech to signal continued outreach to North Korea. He pledged to respect the North’s political system, reject “absorption unification,” and called for Pyongyang to return to talks. The approach maintains his engagement strategy despite North Korea’s continued rebuffs. Alliance exercises with the United States went ahead as planned despite Washington’s Middle East commitments. The annual Freedom Shield exercise will run March 9-19, with military leaders stressing its importance for regional security.
Lee completes first presidential state visits to Singapore and Philippines President Lee conducted his first foreign state visits as president, traveling to Singapore (March 1-3) and Philippines (March 3-4) to strengthen bilateral ties, upgrade trade agreements, and expand cooperation in AI, nuclear energy, and defense. The visits included ceremonial events, business forums, and personal meetings including a reunion with a Filipino worker Lee helped as a lawyer in 1992. Sources: Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Korea TimesKorean stock market suffers historic crash before recovering amid Middle East crisis South Korea’s KOSPI index experienced its worst single-day drop in history, falling over 12% on March 4 and triggering circuit breakers, due to Middle East war concerns and rising oil prices. The crash wiped out gains from the previous year’s AI-driven rally, particularly affecting Samsung and SK Hynix, before showing signs of recovery. Sources: CNBC, Reuters, Yonhap News AgencyFormer President Yoon Suk-yeol begins appeals court proceedings for obstruction charges Former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s appellate trial began for obstruction of justice and other charges stemming from his failed martial law attempt. The Seoul High Court is hearing appeals from both Yoon’s team, seeking acquittal, and prosecutors, who want a harsher sentence than the initial five-year term.Bank of Korea responds to market volatility and currency weakness amid Middle East crisis The Bank of Korea activated emergency monitoring systems and issued statements about market stability as the Korean won weakened significantly and bond yields fluctuated due to Middle East tensions. The central bank is weighing policy responses while inflation remains near the 2% target. Sources: Korea Times, BloombergSamsung showcases Galaxy S26 series and AI developments at Mobile World Congress Samsung unveiled its Galaxy S26 lineup at Mobile World Congress 2026, with the S26 Ultra winning ‘Best in Show.’ The company also revealed details about upcoming AI smart glasses and expanded Galaxy AI ecosystem features, while maintaining its position as the world’s number one TV brand for 20 consecutive years.President Lee announces cabinet appointments and regulatory reform initiatives President Lee Jae-myung appointed Park Hong-keun as the inaugural Minister of the newly created Budget Ministry and named three vice chairpersons to the Presidential Regulatory Rationalization Committee, including Samsung veteran Nam Gung-beom and KAIST professor Lee Byung-tae, signaling administrative reforms.Korean entertainment industry sees mixed developments in dramas and celebrity comebacks Various developments in Korean entertainment including the finale of ‘Undercover Miss Hong’ reaching 15.6% viewership, speculation about Kim Soo-hyun’s potential return with ‘Knock-Off’ on Disney+, and new drama launches including ‘The Practical Guide to Love.’ The industry continues to expand globally while dealing with various controversies.Middle East crisis raises energy security concerns and defense cooperation questions for South Korea The escalating Middle East conflict has prompted discussions in South Korea about energy security, potential Self-Defense Force cooperation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on South Korea’s oil and LNG supplies. The crisis has also affected global supply chains and defense planning.

Indonesia flag Indonesia

Prabowo Subianto, the president, offered Indonesia as a mediator in the Iran-US conflict this week, breaking with the country’s traditionally cautious diplomacy. He promised to withdraw from Donald Trump’s Board of Peace if it fails to benefit Palestinians, sparking domestic debate about his foreign policy and ties with Washington. Mr Prabowo had planned the mediation bid. He had sent a condolence letter to Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, sent before the planned funeral ceremony in Mashhad. Pakistan and the UAE backed Indonesia’s mediation offer, giving Mr Prabowo the regional support he needs to position himself as a broker between rival powers. The president spent three and a half hours consulting Mr Widodo and Mr Yudhoyono, both former presidents, along with former vice presidents and foreign ministers, on the Middle East crisis and Board of Peace membership. The meeting showed Mr Prabowo prefers to consult widely before making big foreign policy moves. Indonesia responded through standard procedures. Agus Subiyanto, commander of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), placed all military units on Alert Level 1 for potential evacuations of Indonesian nationals and patrols at strategic sites. Two Pertamina tankers remained stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the foreign ministry to negotiate with Iran for safe passage. The mega-coalition faced its usual problems. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) arrested Fadia Arafiq, a Golkar regent from Pekalongan, in a corruption case. Her claim that she did not understand government procedures prompted criticism from party colleagues, showing the limits of political protection for lower-level officials even as the coalition maintains overall stability.
Prabowo offers to mediate Iran-US conflict amid domestic criticism of Board of Peace membership
March 2–7, 2026
Banking sector prepares for Ramadan with money exchange services and holiday operations
March 3–8, 2026
Danantara announces waste-to-energy partnerships and SOE governance reforms
March 3–9, 2026