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Regional Summary

Nuclear Umbrellas, Paper Coalitions The countries arming fastest across central and northern Europe are the least able to keep their domestic politics together. Governments that stake everything on defence find they have little political capital left for anything else, while oppositions discover that a wartime atmosphere does not rally citizens behind their leaders. Finland offers the starkest case. The country made its most dramatic defence shift since joining NATO in 2023: a bill to scrap the decades-old ban on nuclear weapons crossing Finnish soil, a public drive to recruit Russian- and Chinese-speaking spies, and a 25,000-troop Arctic exercise. Yet the government making these moves is losing support. Twenty thousand demonstrators heckled Petteri Orpo, the prime minister, at a Women’s Day march, and his National Coalition Party has sunk to 17.9%, its lowest in five years. The opposition Social Democrats lead by seven points. A government projecting strength abroad is projecting weakness at home, and voters reject the security argument meant to justify austerity and alliance obligations. Poland’s version of the same tension is fiscal rather than electoral. Karol Nawrocki, the president, unveiled a plan to finance defence spending from the central bank’s gold reserves instead of European Union loans—a move that keeps Warsaw’s military upgrade on track while snubbing Brussels. The scheme is politically clever: it lets the right claim sovereignty and defence seriousness at once. But it also reveals how deeply the question of who pays for rearmament divides Polish politics. Jarosław Kaczyński’s decision to name Przemysław Czarnek, the hardliner, as his candidate for prime minister in 2027 confirms that the conservative flank is fragmenting rightward, not consolidating. Defence consensus exists in the abstract; the bill for it does not. In the Czech Republic, the cost is institutional rather than financial. Parliament voted to shield both Andrej Babiš, the former prime minister, and Tomio Okamura, the far-right leader, from prosecution, freezing fraud and hate-speech charges until at least 2029. The coalition’s unity on self-protection contrasted sharply with its disunity on foreign policy: Mr Babiš backed American strikes on Iran while Mr Okamura called them destabilising, and the prime minister shrugged that each man “speaks to his voters.” When Václav Moravec, the country’s most prominent political interviewer, quit Czech Television saying he could no longer guarantee editorial independence, the signal was plain. A government that cannot agree on its own foreign posture can still agree to insulate itself from the law, and the institutions meant to hold it accountable are buckling. Romania rounds out the pattern. The governing coalition—an awkward marriage of Social Democrats, Liberals, and the Save Romania Union—is edging toward collapse over the 2026 budget, even as the country takes delivery of more than a thousand Turkish armoured vehicles and Klaus Iohannis, the president, proposes expanding the Bucharest Nine to include Nordic allies. Mr Iohannis insists Romania needs no nuclear weapons of its own because NATO’s umbrella suffices, yet the coalition that would have to sustain defence spending cannot agree on how much to allocate to pensions. Estonia, whose defence minister took a Dubai holiday during the Iran strikes, polls at a combined 14.9% for its two governing parties—against nearly 75% for the opposition—yet secured a €100m South Korean ammunition factory in the same week. Across NATO’s eastern and northern members, democratic governments are achieving real military integration at a pace that would have seemed impossible five years ago: nuclear hosting, Arctic exercises, arms factories, drone-sharing with Gulf states. But each step demands political capital that these same governments do not possess, and voters are punishing them not for the defence agenda itself but for everything they neglect while pursuing it. Rearmament is winning the argument and losing the electorate. That gap is not a paradox to be admired; it is a vulnerability an adversary could exploit.

Country Summaries


Finland flag Finland

Finland announced it will lift its ban on nuclear weapons, letting NATO allies bring nuclear arms onto Finnish soil. Antti Häkkänen, the defence minister, said the government will introduce a bill to scrap the 1980s prohibition and allow the import and transit of nuclear weapons for the alliance. The move marks the biggest change in Finnish defence policy since the country joined NATO in 2023. Finland has been nuclear-free for decades, but Mr Häkkänen said the ban no longer works with alliance membership. The government will need to change criminal law and nuclear energy law, though Finland will not seek nuclear weapons on its territory. Finland is also expanding its spy network. The security police launched their first public recruitment drive for intelligence officers who speak Russian and Chinese. The Finnish Security Intelligence Service said it needs officers to gather intelligence from human sources at home and abroad. Finland hosted 7,500 troops in a major NATO exercise across the Nordic region. The Cold Response 26 drill brought 25,000 soldiers from 14 countries to test Arctic warfare and Finland’s ability to support allied forces. Alexander Stubb, the president, made a four-day state visit to India. He met Narendra Modi and other senior officials, spoke at the Raisina Dialogue, and pushed for Indian membership of the UN Security Council. The talks covered trade, the Ukraine war, and India’s global role. At home, the government faces political pressure despite its strong parliamentary majority. Petteri Orpo, the prime minister, was booed and heckled at a Women’s Day march in Helsinki attended by up to 20,000 people. Mr Orpo was addressing domestic violence policies when demonstrators interrupted his speech. The hostile reception showed public anger. The latest Yle poll shows Mr Orpo’s National Coalition Party has fallen to 17.9% support, its lowest level in five years. The opposition Social Democrats lead with 25%, opening a 7.1-point gap. The government weighed economic threats from the Middle East conflict. Mr Orpo said the impact on Finland would be small if the fighting stayed short but significant if it escalated or dragged on. The main concerns are energy prices and disrupted supply chains.

Estonia flag Estonia

Estonia’s defence minister was caught vacationing in Dubai when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, forcing him to flee overland to Oman as his government’s polling collapsed to record lows. Hanno Pevkur, the defence minister, was on holiday with his family when the attacks began on February 28. Mr Pevkur faced extra costs getting home and criticism for his bad timing, though polling shows he remains the most trusted minister despite the embarrassment. The mishap came as Estonia’s governing coalition hit new lows. The Reform Party dropped to fifth place with 12.9%, losing 2.3 percentage points in four weeks and now nearly tied with the far-right Conservative People’s Party (EKRE). The coalition parties — Reform and Estonia 200 — poll at just 14.9% combined against 74.7% for the opposition. Yet even as the government struggled domestically, Estonia stepped up its rhetoric abroad. Margus Tsahkna, the foreign minister, said that among Vladimir Putin’s allies who haven’t been “killed or imprisoned,” North Korea remains, “let’s say China too; maybe a few others.” He later clarified he was not calling for Chinese regime change but highlighting Mr Putin’s shrinking alliance base. Estonia also provided support for the attacks, authorising evacuation of 3,000 citizens and backing American and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear capabilities. The government secured one win through defence cooperation. South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace announced a €100 million investment including an ammunition factory producing over 300,000 rounds annually, maintenance facilities, and research partnerships with Estonian companies. The investment follows Estonia’s procurement of Chunmoo rocket launchers and potential naval cooperation.

Czech Republic flag Czech Republic

Czech democracy faced a blow this week as parliament voted to shield both Andrej Babiš, the prime minister, and Tomio Okamura, the parliament speaker, from prosecution, while Václav Moravec, a television journalist, quit after 21 years saying he could no longer guarantee editorial independence. Parliament refused 104-81 to lift immunity for Mr Babiš, who faces EU subsidy fraud charges, and for Mr Okamura, who faces charges over racist campaign posters. All coalition members voted to protect their leaders. The votes freeze both prosecutions until at least 2029, when their parliamentary terms expire. Mr Moravec’s departure from Czech Television was unexpected. He announced he could no longer guarantee editorial independence after being forced to host Mr Okamura for the first time since 2017. His exit shows that public media faces pressure beyond routine political meddling. The coalition splits on foreign policy. When the United States and Israel struck Iran, Mr Babiš backed the allied actions while Mr Okamura called the attacks destabilising. The prime minister said the government would not seek a unified position, noting that Mr Okamura “speaks to his voters.” Petr Pavel, the president, pushed back in his first parliamentary address since taking office in March 2023, defending Czech membership in the EU and NATO and urging higher defence spending. Defence spending is creating friction. Nicholas Merrick, the US ambassador, warned that Czech budget cuts could leave the country among NATO’s lowest spenders. The 2026 budget cuts core military funding despite NATO commitments to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. Yet operational cooperation continues — the Czech Republic deployed UH-1Y Venom helicopters to Poland for the first time to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. Czech economic performance held steady. Inflation slowed to 1.4% in February, below the 1.6% median estimate, and 2025 GDP growth was confirmed at 2.6%. The central bank’s independence and market confidence stay separate from the political turmoil.
Okamura returns to Czech TV debate show after 9 years; Moravec announces departure
March 2–5, 2026

Ukraine flag Ukraine

Ukraine offered drone expertise to Middle East partners this week, reversing its usual role as recipient. Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, announced that Ukrainian specialists are working with Gulf states and the US to counter Iranian Shahed attacks, proposing to exchange drone interceptors for Patriot missiles. But Ukraine’s relations within Europe soured. Hungarian authorities detained seven employees of Ukraine’s Oschadbank who were transporting $80 million and 9kg of gold. Andrii Sybiha, the foreign minister, accused Hungary of “hostage-taking and theft.” The employees were released after diplomats intervened, but the incident worsened tensions over the Druzhba pipeline and EU funding disputes. Ukrainian forces continued making territorial gains. General Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief, said they captured more territory in February than Russia occupied, reporting 92,850 Russian casualties over three winter months. These were Ukraine’s first territorial gains since the Kursk operation in 2024. The economy remained stable through international support. Yulia Svyrydenko, the prime minister, announced Ukraine had received $1.5 billion as the first part of its new IMF programme, alongside resilience plans worth 215 billion hryvnias.
Ukraine offers drone expertise to Middle East partners amid Iranian attacks
March 1–7, 2026
Hungary detains Ukrainian bank employees with cash convoy, later releases them
March 06, 2026

Poland flag Poland

Karol Nawrocki, the president, unveiled a plan to fund defence spending with the central bank’s gold reserves rather than EU loans, forcing a choice between national sovereignty and European integration on Warsaw’s top priority. Mr Nawrocki and Adam Glapiński, the central bank governor, announced their “Polish SAFE 0%” programme as an alternative to the EU’s planned defence funding. The proposal would use the National Bank of Poland’s profits and gold reserves—over 700 tons—to finance 185bn złoty for defence spending. Mr Glapiński called it superior to “European SAFE with those burdens.” The proposal keeps Poland’s defence upgrade on track while severing financial ties to Brussels. Even as Mr Nawrocki pursued this sovereignty play, he worked smoothly with the government on crisis response. When Iran’s missile strikes prompted mass evacuations from the Middle East, Donald Tusk, the prime minister, ordered military aircraft to bring Poles home, and Mr Nawrocki approved the use of the Polish Military Contingent. Over 7,000 Poles were evacuated. The cooperation showed that the alliance still works despite domestic tensions. Those tensions are hardening on the political right. Jarosław Kaczyński, who leads the opposition Law and Justice party, named Przemysław Czarnek as his candidate for prime minister in 2027 elections. Mr Czarnek, a former education minister known for hardline Catholic positions and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, signals that PiS is competing with the far-right Confederation party rather than moving toward the centre. The choice confirms Poland’s conservative landscape is fragmenting rightward, not healing toward the middle.

Lithuania flag Lithuania

Gitanas Nausėda, Lithuania’s president, told the United States it could use Lithuanian territory for military operations against Iran. Mr Nausėda and Raimundas Vaikšnoras, the armed forces commander, said Lithuania would consider letting American forces use the country for logistics and aircraft staging, with the president calling Lithuania a ‘faithful and responsible ally.’ Even as it offers support for American operations, Lithuania is building its own defences. The country will receive its first high-mobility rocket artillery battery, Norwegian surface-to-air missiles, and Giraffe radars in 2026, the defence minister confirmed. The government also designated Leopard 2A8 tank assembly as a strategic project, while intelligence services warned of Russian military buildup near NATO borders. The central bank announced a payment strategy through 2030 and revoked Paytend Europe’s licence for money laundering violations. State energy company Ignitis delivered American liquefied natural gas to Ukraine through the Klaipėda terminal but faces financing challenges for offshore wind projects. Ingrida Šimonytė, the prime minister, faced criticism for using state funds for a family Vatican visit. Ms Šimonytė also refused to comment on financing issues affecting her coalition partner, the Dawn of Nemunas party, saying she cannot express personal opinions as prime minister. The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party faces divisions over the coalition, with Vilija Blinkevičiūtė declining to run for party leadership.
Prime Minister Ruginienė's Vatican visit with family sparks controversy over state funding
February 08 – March 05, 2026

Latvia flag Latvia

Latvia backed American and Israeli strikes against Iran this week, calling them “understandable” given Iran’s support for terrorist groups—a sign that Riga’s Western alignment extends beyond its neighbourhood. Edgars Rinkēvičs, the president, called the action justified, while Andris Sprūds, the defence minister, worried about regional security risks and NATO’s Article 5 obligations. Latvia confirmed that its 2,000 citizens in the UAE were safe. Even as it supports Western operations abroad, Latvia is building its own defences. Mr Rinkēvičs inspected the border with Russia in Alūksne and Balvi, saying that surveillance must cover the frontier by the end of 2026. The visit, accompanied by military commanders and border guards, showed the deployment of anti-mobility barriers and radar systems—part of the Baltic Defence Line. The government is also creating economic defences. New amendments to the Credit Institutions Law created a banking licence requiring just €1 million in capital, compared with €5 million for traditional banks. The system allows deposit-taking, lending, and payment services across the EU. Industry sources say three to four firms have already expressed interest, with 70 people attending a fintech discussion hosted by BDO Latvia. But Evika Siliņa, the prime minister, faces mixed results at home. Her annual report showed that 51.4% of National Development Plan targets had been achieved or were progressing, though only a third of residents approve of her government. The coalition remains split on trade restrictions, with the Progressives pushing to cut all trade with aggressor states while partners resist. Despite these tensions, Latvia’s strategic posture remains fixed: maximum Western integration, zero hedging toward alternative powers.
KNAB orders National Alliance to repay misused state funds
March 04, 2026

Romania flag Romania

Romania sticks with its Western allies, buys new weapons and weathers financial trouble, but the governing coalition is collapsing. The Social Democrats have moved from budget threats to formal talks about leaving the government, putting Marcel Ciolacu’s administration at risk of collapse.

Domestic Politics

Significant movement — Coalition crisis deepens as PSD considers exit The coalition that has governed Romania since 2021 faces its biggest crisis. The Social Democrats are holding party talks about whether to stay in government with the Liberals and Save Romania Union. Mr Ciolacu’s party wants higher social spending in the 2026 budget and has threatened to block its passage and quit the coalition if those demands are ignored. The Liberals accused the Social Democrats of “discussing breaking up the coalition during an international crisis,” referring to the Middle East conflict. But the budget session this week grew tense, with the Social Democrats threatening to block the budget and leave government unless their social spending demands are included. Documents also surfaced showing that Radu Miruță, the defence minister, signed a Social Democrat membership form in 2005 as a student. The Save Romania Union had repeatedly denied he was ever a member. Mr Miruță said he signed only to get free trips to the seaside sponsored by the party.

Diplomatic Alignment

Minor movement — Western ties remain strong Romania’s Western alignment remains complete. Klaus Iohannis, the president, and Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s president-elect, announced plans to invite Nordic countries to join the Bucharest 9 format, expanding the eastern European NATO group to 11 or 12 members at a summit planned for May. The far-right AUR party’s international activities continue outside official policy. George Simion attended an “Alliance of Sovereign Nations” conference in Washington alongside European far-right leaders. But analysts note Mr Simion’s reduced visibility at home and suggest that Dan Dungaciu, his deputy, may be gaining influence within AUR. Mr Dungaciu brings academic credentials and conservative international connections that could moderate the party’s image.

Security and Defence

Minor movement — Military upgrade continues Romania confirmed that NATO’s nuclear weapons protect it when the Middle East conflict raised questions about alliance security. Mr Iohannis said Romania needs no nuclear weapons of its own because NATO’s nuclear umbrella protects it. The army started moving the first batch of Turkish-made Otokar COBRA II armoured vehicles from maintenance centres to operational units. The vehicles are part of a 1,059-vehicle purchase programme that represents Romania’s biggest military upgrade in decades.

Economic Management

Minor movement — Central bank handles external shock The National Bank of Romania kept the leu stable during market trouble from the Middle East conflict. The euro fell to 5.0959 lei while gold prices rose to new highs worldwide. Analysts warned that the external crisis could make it harder for the central bank to control inflation, but the bank’s response showed it could still manage currency stability.
Coalition crisis over 2026 budget as PSD threatens to leave government
March 2–6, 2026
Romania proposes expanding Bucharest 9 format to include Nordic countries
March 05, 2026