Regional Summary
The Sovereignty Shuffle Governments across the Americas are loudly asserting independence from traditional patrons while quietly discovering that independence multiplies the number of masters they must serve. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum and José Antonio Kast all cast themselves as champions of sovereignty, yet each found that the pursuit of autonomy generates dependencies, internal fractures and awkward debts that no trade deal can settle. Mr Carney’s Asian tour illustrates the point. His $5.5 billion in agreements—uranium with India, free trade on the horizon, closer ties with Japan and Australia—aim to loosen Canada’s reliance on the United States. The ambition is sensible; the execution is already tangled. Even as he signed with New Delhi, Canadian intelligence confirmed that Indian agents are still meddling in Canadian politics, a problem the government claimed to have fixed. Worse, Mr Carney’s “regretful” endorsement of American-Israeli strikes on Iran provoked a caucus revolt that forced the foreign minister into a Friday damage-control session. A leader polling at 61 per cent approval and 49 per cent party support can absorb such blows, but the episode showed that diversifying from Washington does not free a prime minister from Washington’s wars—it merely adds new audiences to displease. In Brazil, the corrosion is financial rather than diplomatic but the logic is the same. Lula spent two years positioning himself as a developing-world statesman independent of Washington, yet this week the threat came from inside his own household. His son Lulinha’s R$19.5 billion in suspect transactions, and the revelation that the owner of the troubled Banco Master held private meetings with the president, dragged Lula into the kind of scandal he once promised to leave behind. A Datafolha poll showing him effectively tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical 2026 run-off suggests voters are already recalculating. Sovereignty rhetoric rings hollow when the sovereign’s family cannot explain its bank statements. Chile shows the costs of trying to please everyone. José Antonio Kast suspended all meetings with Gabriel Boric, the outgoing president, after a 22-minute row over a Chinese submarine-cable project—the first such breakdown since democracy returned in 1990. The quarrel is officially about transparency, but its roots lie in an impossible balancing act: Washington wants Chile to block Chinese infrastructure; Beijing offers investment Chile’s copper-dependent economy needs; and Mr Kast’s own Republican Party sent a delegation to discuss technology deals with Chinese state firms while their leader was denouncing the cable. The contradiction is not hypocrisy so much as inevitable. A middle-income country caught between great powers cannot choose sovereignty; it can only choose which dependency to advertise and which to hide. Mexico managed the juggling act most deftly, but only by keeping every ball low. Record foreign investment of $40.9 billion and an 11-year low in Pemex’s debt suggest that energy sovereignty and investor confidence can coexist—for now. Yet Mexico evacuated citizens from the Middle East with American help, hunted cartel leaders under American pressure, and criticised American foreign policy at the United Nations, all in the same week. Its ruling coalition, meanwhile, began cracking over electoral reform, with the Labour Party accusing Morena of becoming the very party it replaced. Even the most nimble performer eventually runs out of hands. The pursuit of independence does not reduce political risk but redistributes it inward. Every new trade partner, every alignment, every declaration of independence from an old patron creates a new constituency to manage at home—a caucus to placate, a family scandal to contain, a coalition ally to mollify, a transition to salvage. Sovereignty, in practice, is not freedom from dependence but the multiplication of it.Country Summaries
Canada
Mark Carney signed $5.5 billion in trade deals with Asian partners this week, but his attempt to balance alliance duties with independent judgment prompted a revolt in his own caucus over Iran.
The prime minister’s tour of Japan, India and Australia produced results: a $2.6 billion uranium deal with India, plans to reach $70 billion in trade by 2030, and a free-trade agreement due in December 2026. Mr Carney called the relationships “not merely renewal but expansion” as part of efforts to rely less on the United States. Yet even as he signed deals with India, Canada’s spies confirmed that India is still meddling in Canada — contradicting government claims that such activity had stopped.
His foreign policy approach ran into more trouble over Iran. Mr Carney initially supported US-Israeli strikes on Iran “with regret,” provoking concern among Liberal MPs and forcing Anita Anand, the foreign minister, to brief the caucus on Friday. The government shifted from support to questioning the strikes’ legality. Liberal MP Will Greaves criticised the stance as violating international law.
The tension gave Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, a chance to propose an alternative. Speaking in London and Berlin on his first foreign trip as party leader, Mr Poilievre pitched a CANZUK trade alliance linking Canada with Britain, Australia and New Zealand, while promoting Canadian energy exports to Germany. He called it “free trade among free nations” — unlike Mr Carney’s Asia focus.
Despite the internal friction, the Liberals remain politically strong at home. Polls show the party at 49% support, its highest level in a decade, with leads of 8-14 points over the Conservatives. Mr Carney’s personal approval sits at 61%, strong even in Western provinces, while the Conservatives have stagnated around 35-37%. The prime minister called byelections for April 13 in three ridings; winning all three would give the Liberals a thin majority.
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- Quebec provincial politics shows tight race between PQ and Liberals — New Léger polling shows the Parti Québécois at 31% and Quebec Liberals at 30%, marking a significant recovery for the Liberals under Charles Milliard. Support for Quebec sovereignty has hit a historic low while the Coalition Avenir Québec trails in third place. (montreal.citynews.ca)
- Carney government shuffles deputy ministers in senior public service — Prime Minister Carney announced changes to senior government positions, including bringing back Glenn Purves from BlackRock as deputy minister of international trade and creating new roles as part of efforts to reshape the federal bureaucracy. (cbc.ca)
- Canada-US trade talks resume after Trump hiatus — For the first time since President Trump called off negotiations last October, Canada-US trade minister Dominic LeBlanc met with his White House counterpart, marking a potential thaw in bilateral trade relations. (cbc.ca)
- Carney government signs agreements with Musqueam First Nation over Vancouver area — The federal government signed the ‘šxʷq̓ʷal̕təl̕tən Rights Recognition Agreement’ with the Musqueam Indian Band, recognizing rights and title over most of Greater Vancouver, though details of the agreement remain largely undisclosed. (fraserinstitute.org)
Notes
Notes
Carney completes Indo-Pacific trade mission with deals in Japan, India, and Australia
February 06 – March 05, 2026
Liberal caucus tensions emerge over Carney's evolving position on US-Israeli strikes against Iran
February 06 – March 06, 2026
Liberal Party reaches highest polling levels in decade under Carney leadership
February 06 – March 05, 2026
Other
Brazil
Corruption investigators now target Lula’s family as his son faces charges for moving R$19.5 million in four years, while polls show Lula tied with Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 election.
Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, moved the money through businesses linked to fraud against Brazil’s social security system. André Mendonça, a Supreme Court justice, broke the family’s banking secrecy to allow the probe. Corruption charges have never before hit Lula’s family during his presidency.
The scandal widened when investigators found that Daniel Vorcaro, owner of the troubled Banco Master, held secret meetings with Lula. Messages show Mr Vorcaro called his talks with the president “excellent” while attacking Jair Bolsonaro, dragging the president into a financial scandal that shook Brazil’s banking sector.
Polls suggest the political damage is already done. Datafolha found Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed ex-president, tied with Lula in a 2026 runoff at 46% to 43%. The tie shows Bolsonarismo has kept its appeal despite the elder Bolsonaro’s imprisonment for trying to stage a coup.
Brazil’s armed forces recruited 1,467 women for military service for the first time, placing them across all three branches in 13 states. Petrobras posted annual profits of R$110.1 billion, boosted by oil prices that surged after war broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran. Brazil called for peace in the Middle East while Fernando Haddad, the finance minister, said the economic impact on Brazil should stay limited.
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Other Stories
- PT faces internal divisions and strategic challenges ahead of 2026 elections across multiple states — The Workers’ Party (PT) is navigating complex alliance negotiations and candidate selections across Brazilian states for 2026 elections. Internal divisions emerged over federations with PSOL, while the party maps strategies for governorships and Senate races in key states. (folha.uol.com.br)
- Fernando Haddad signals acceptance of Lula’s request to run for São Paulo governor, testing ground against Tarcísio — Finance Minister Fernando Haddad increasingly indicates he will accept President Lula’s pressure to run for São Paulo governor in 2026, setting up a contest against incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas. Polls show Tarcísio leading but Haddad as a competitive challenger for PT. (folha.uol.com.br)
- Jair Bolsonaro’s family faces multiple legal challenges as ex-president remains imprisoned — Former President Bolsonaro remains in prison after STF unanimously denied house arrest requests, while son Flávio files police reports over death threats. The Military Public Ministry requests loss of military ranks for Bolsonaro and other officers convicted of coup attempt. (oglobo.globo.com)
- Iran war prompts diplomatic tensions and economic concerns as Brazil navigates Middle East crisis — War between US, Israel and Iran creates diplomatic challenges for Brazil, which calls for peace while monitoring potential economic impacts. Finance Minister Haddad says immediate effects on Brazilian economy should be limited, but government prepares for possible escalation scenarios. (agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br)
- Supreme Court faces internal tensions and external criticism amid high-profile cases — STF deals with various controversies including decisions on salary caps for public servants, competency disputes, and criticism over judicial powers. Justice Mendonça gains prominence in Master Bank and INSS fraud cases while court faces calls for ethics code. (noticias.stf.jus.br)
- Lula addresses domestic issues including gambling regulation and labor reforms while defending PIX system — President Lula announced measures against online gambling (‘tigrinho’), defended the PIX payment system against Trump’s criticism, and advocated for ending the 6x1 work schedule. He also made statements on various domestic policy issues during the week. (g1.globo.com)
- Central Bank of Bolivia launches app to verify banknotes after plane crash theft — Bolivia’s Central Bank launched a mobile app to verify Series B banknotes after thieves stole money from a crashed military plane carrying new currency. The BCB invalidated stolen bills while maintaining that legally obtained notes remain valid. (reduno.com.bo)
Notes
Notes
Lulinha scandal deepens as investigations reveal R\$19.5 million in financial movements and INSS fraud connections
March 3–7, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro gains ground against Lula in 2026 presidential race as multiple polls show tightening contest
March 2–7, 2026
Banco Master scandal expands with revelations of Vorcaro meetings with Lula and other high-ranking officials
March 3–5, 2026
Petrobras reports record profits amid oil price surge from Iran war, announces R\$8.1 billion in dividends
March 3–7, 2026
PT faces internal divisions and strategic challenges ahead of 2026 elections across multiple states
March 3–7, 2026
Fernando Haddad signals acceptance of Lula's request to run for São Paulo governor, testing ground against Tarcísio
March 2–7, 2026
Brazil incorporates nearly 1,500 women into voluntary military service for first time in Armed Forces history
March 2–3, 2026
Jair Bolsonaro's family faces multiple legal challenges as ex-president remains imprisoned
March 2–7, 2026
Supreme Court faces internal tensions and external criticism amid high-profile cases
March 2–7, 2026
Lula addresses domestic issues including gambling regulation and labor reforms while defending PIX system
March 4–7, 2026
Other
Mexico
Mexico works with the United States — it evacuated 321 Mexicans from the Middle East and continued hunting cartel leaders after El Mencho’s death — while criticising American foreign policy at the UN. Foreign investment hit a record $40.871 billion in 2025, and Pemex cut its debt to an 11-year low, showing Mexico can pursue energy sovereignty without scaring off investors. The ruling coalition is splitting over electoral reform. The Labour Party (PT) accuses the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) of becoming the old Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). But the parties still work together on other issues, passing the 40-hour work week and preparing for the 2027 elections.
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Other Stories
- Death of CJNG leader ‘El Mencho’ in military operation prompts security response in Jalisco — Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ‘El Mencho’, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was killed in a military operation in Tapalpa. Security Secretary García Harfuch confirmed the operation and subsequent security deployment during funeral proceedings to prevent disturbances. (elfinanciero.com.mx)
- SEDENA and SEMAR recognize women’s contributions in armed forces during International Women’s Day — On International Women’s Day, the National Defence Secretariat (SEDENA) and the Naval Secretariat (SEMAR) highlighted the growing participation of women in the Mexican Armed Forces. SEDENA reported over 42,600 women in service, while SEMAR noted 22,000 women representing 25% of naval personnel. (eluniversal.com.mx)
- Banxico maintains accommodative monetary policy stance amid geopolitical tensions — Bank of Mexico officials said they could continue cutting interest rates despite a recent inflation rise, while analysts see potential for resuming monetary easing unless Middle East geopolitical events worsen and push up inflation. (eleconomista.com.mx)
Notes
Notes
Sheinbaum's electoral reform faces resistance from PT and PVEM allies as congressional process begins
March 4–8, 2026
Death of CJNG leader 'El Mencho' in military operation prompts security response in Jalisco
March 5–8, 2026
Foreign Minister coordinates Mexican response to Middle East crisis, evacuates nationals
March 2–5, 2026
Pemex reports debt reduction and financial recovery as oil prices surge amid Middle East crisis
March 2–6, 2026
Morena holds national council to prepare for 2027 elections, rejects Trump comments on Mexico
March 7–8, 2026
CFE reports financial improvements and announces new power plant projects with private investment
March 2–8, 2026
Sheinbaum criticizes UN effectiveness amid Middle East crisis, calls for diplomatic solutions
March 02, 2026
SEDENA and SEMAR recognize women's contributions in armed forces during International Women's Day
March 08, 2026
Sheinbaum publishes 40-hour work week reform and reduces working hours constitutionally
March 2–4, 2026
Other
Chile
Chile’s presidential transition collapsed this week when José Antonio Kast suspended all meetings with Gabriel Boric after a 22-minute confrontation over the Chinese submarine cable project — the first breakdown in handover procedures since the country returned to democracy in 1990.
Mr Kast demanded that Mr Boric retract statements about informing him of the Chinese cable project. When the president refused, the president-elect walked out and suspended all meetings until March 8. The breakdown shows how the submarine cable controversy has split not just Chile’s foreign relations but its domestic institutions.
The crisis exposed contradictions within Mr Kast’s own coalition. Ruth Hurtado, secretary-general of his Republican Party, led a delegation to China to discuss technology investments with state-backed companies — the kind of engagement that prompted Washington’s pressure. Mr Kast’s office criticized the timing, showing his closest allies cannot agree on China policy.
The Socialist Party warned of “consequences” if Mr Kast’s government does not support Michelle Bachelet’s candidacy for UN Secretary-General. Right-wing parties called this “political blackmail.”
Yet Chile’s institutions kept working through the turmoil. A Santiago court sentenced Carabineros Captain Pablo Andrés Carvajal Díaz to seven years in prison for shooting and blinding a protester during the 2019 unrest — a rare successful prosecution that shows judicial independence persists. The World Health Organization verified Chile as the first country in the Americas to eliminate leprosy, after decades of public health work.
Mr Kast also made economic appointments, using three of his 12 “silver bullet” positions to bypass civil service rules and install Jorge Trujillo at the tax service, David Oddó at the labor directorate, and Frank Sauerbaum at the migration service. Meanwhile, state copper giant CODELCO signed a deal with Microsoft to explore artificial intelligence applications in mining operations, showing it can still strike international deals despite money troubles.
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Other Stories
- Palestino eliminates Universidad de Chile from Copa Sudamericana — Palestino defeated Universidad de Chile 2-1 in a dramatic finish at Estadio Nacional to advance to the Copa Sudamericana group stage. The match featured two goals in the final minutes, eliminating U. de Chile from international competition for 2026. (elcomercio.pe)
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