Regional Summary
Gulf Crisis Shows Leaders Double Down Rather Than Pull Back Iran’s drone and missile barrage across the Gulf tested whether the region’s strongmen have built states tough enough to absorb a serious blow and keep building. They have — but staying strong means embracing the foreign patrons and military pacts these leaders spent years trying to escape. Saudi Arabia turned the shutdown of Ras Tanura, its largest oil refinery, into an opening. Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, worked the phones with half a dozen capitals, accepted Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president’s offer of drone expertise, and sent his defence minister to invoke the kingdom’s defence pact with Pakistan — all while Aramco launched the $100 billion Jafurah gas project on schedule. The message was that Vision 2030 does not pause for Iranian Shaheds. Yet Mr bin Salman’s diplomacy exposed the limits of Saudi self-sufficiency: the kingdom needed partners from Islamabad to Kyiv to plug holes in its air defences. And NEOM’s shift from a fantastical linear city to AI data centres shows the leadership is learning that strength demands commercial sense, not building dreams. The United Arab Emirates showed that war focuses a state’s energy rather than scattering it. Mohammed bin Zayed, the president, declared the country at war — the first such declaration in 54 years — while delivering a 93% interception rate against more than 1,400 Iranian projectiles, announcing a $16 billion Mubadala investment in Waymo, and brokering another prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Mr bin Zayed’s warning that the UAE was “no easy prey” broke with the federation’s usual caution, yet the real signal was domestic: public solidarity between Abu Dhabi and Dubai’s rulers showed a federation that closes ranks under threat rather than splitting apart. The danger is that success in a short bombardment breeds overconfidence about a longer one. India’s dilemma showed what happens when neutrality meets a war next door. An American submarine sank an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka, in waters New Delhi considers its own preserve, forcing Narendra Modi, the prime minister, into the sharpest foreign-policy choice of his tenure — one he had spent a decade avoiding. Unlike the Ukraine conflict, which he could manage with abstentions in New York, this crisis landed in his neighbourhood. The evacuation of 52,000 citizens, the emergency security-cabinet meeting, and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the foreign minister’s promise to brief parliament all pointed to a government struggling to keep its neutral stance while the neighbourhood caught fire. The simultaneous reset with Canada over trade and critical minerals showed Mr Modi still managing multiple relationships, but the pressures are heavier now. Turkey offered the opposite example: a government that uses foreign crises to settle domestic scores. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used the same week to put Istanbul’s mayor on trial alongside 401 co-defendants — a prosecution that could remove his likeliest electoral challenger — while positioning Ankara as the vital mediator between Washington, Tehran and Brussels. The central bank burned through an estimated $7-8 billion in reserves to defend the lira, yet the finance minister trumpeted Turkey’s new high-income status. The contrast was brazen but coherent: Mr Erdoğan treats crisis as cover, knowing that foreign leaders calling for his help in the Gulf are unlikely to press him on judicial independence in Istanbul. Authoritarians used the shock of Iranian aggression not to pull back but to push existing plans forward — military, economic and political — while using the emergency to deepen dependence on allies they had hoped to keep at arm’s length. Strength is not the same as independence. Each leader emerged from the week looking stronger at home and more entangled abroad, a combination that works until the next crisis demands a choice between the two.Country Summaries
Saudi Arabia
Iranian drone strikes shut down Saudi Aramco’s largest oil refinery this week, forcing the kingdom to close Ras Tanura after attacks breached air defences.
The strikes prompted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to reach out diplomatically, holding calls with leaders from Ukraine, Turkey, Britain, India and elsewhere to coordinate responses to Iran’s attacks. Volodymyr Zelensky offered Saudi Arabia Ukraine’s expertise in countering Iranian Shahed drones, telling the crown prince that “Ukrainians have been fighting against shahed drones for years now, and everyone recognises that no other country in the world has this kind of experience.” The kingdom also engaged China’s special Middle East envoy to discuss regional stability.
Even as Mr bin Salman reached out diplomatically, Saudi Arabia activated its defence partnerships. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the defence minister, met with Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir to discuss “the measures needed to halt” Iranian attacks under their Strategic Defence Agreement. The prince warned Iran to “exercise wisdom and avoid miscalculation,” suggesting potential military coordination under the nuclear-ambiguous defence pact.
Despite the security pressure, Saudi Arabia continued its infrastructure projects. Aramco began production at its Jafurah gas development, a $100 billion project that will increase the kingdom’s gas production capacity by 80% by 2030. The Tanajib Gas Plant began operations as one of the world’s largest gas processing facilities, advancing Vision 2030’s energy diversification goals.
The crisis also confirmed changes to the kingdom’s mega-projects. Reports show NEOM is scaling back its flagship project The Line from its original 170-kilometre plan to focus on AI data centres and digital infrastructure rather than the planned linear city for nine million residents. This continues the pattern of shifting from fantastical to commercially viable projects.
King Salman ordered accommodation for 2,500 stranded Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) citizens, allocating hotel rooms in Makkah as travel disruptions affected the region. The directive showed normal government operations continued despite the crisis, with routine administration functioning amid external pressures.
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- Iranian missile and drone attacks target Saudi Arabia amid regional war escalation — Iran launched sustained missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting government facilities, oil infrastructure, and the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. Saudi defence forces intercepted multiple attacks while the kingdom engaged in diplomatic outreach warning Iran to cease hostilities. (aljazeera.com)
- BlackRock’s GIP sells Naturgy stake and acquires AES Corp in major infrastructure deals — BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) completed its exit from Spanish utility Naturgy by selling its 11.4% stake for 2.8 billion euros, while simultaneously announcing the acquisition of US power company AES Corp for $33.4 billion in a consortium deal. (reuters.com)
Notes
Notes
Iranian attacks shut down Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, disrupt oil operations
March 2–8, 2026
Saudi Defense Minister meets Pakistani Army chief to discuss Iran attacks and defense cooperation
March 7–8, 2026
BlackRock's GIP sells Naturgy stake and acquires AES Corp in major infrastructure deals
March 2–3, 2026
Other
United Arab Emirates
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE president, declared the UAE is in a “time of war” for the first time in the country’s history as Iran unleashed more than 1,400 missiles and drones against the UAE.
The attacks are the largest assault on the UAE since its founding. On March 8 alone, UAE air defences intercepted 16 ballistic missiles and 113 drones. Since the Iranian campaign began, the country has destroyed 221 of 238 ballistic missiles fired at it, intercepted 1,342 of 1,422 drones, and shot down all eight cruise missiles. The bombardment has killed four people and wounded 112, but the UAE’s “Little Sparta” air defences are holding — with a 93% interception rate even as Iran tests their limits.
Mr bin Zayed, known as MBZ, visited the wounded in hospital and told them they were “among their family in the UAE.” He warned Iran that the UAE was “no easy prey” with “thick skin and bitter flesh,” but would emerge stronger from the crisis. This broke with the UAE’s usual diplomatic restraint.
The UAE has rallied international support in response. Abdullah bin Zayed, the foreign minister, held urgent talks with counterparts from Morocco, Senegal and Peru, joined a virtual EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting, and visited Austria to coordinate the international response. Abu Dhabi aims to build a coalition against Iranian aggression and strengthen the UAE’s alignment with Western partners.
Even as missiles flew, the UAE continued its diplomacy. The country mediated another prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine — 400 captives in total, 200 from each side — bringing the UAE’s tally to 5,355 exchanges across 19 mediation efforts. Abu Dhabi can maintain its role as neutral mediator while under direct attack.
Business adapted but continued. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) activated crisis protocols and is managing output while using export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil flowing to customers. Mubadala, the sovereign wealth fund, joined a $16 billion funding round for Waymo, the autonomous vehicle company. Major investments continue despite the crisis.
The crisis has strengthened unity among leaders at home. Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai’s ruler, published a poem praising MBZ’s leadership during the crisis, calling him a “pillar of strength” and invoking the late Sheikh Zayed’s legacy of graduating “lions.” The display of unity between the UAE’s two most powerful leaders shows the federation holding together during the country’s worst external threat.
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- UAE under sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks amid US-Israel-Iran war — Iran has launched over 1,400 missiles and drones at the UAE since late February 2026, as part of retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. UAE air defences have intercepted the vast majority, with some casualties reported from impacts and interceptions. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- UAE Central Bank affirms financial sector stability amid regional crisis — Khaled Mohamed Balama, governor of the Central Bank of the UAE, stated that the UAE’s banking and financial sector continues to demonstrate resilience and stability during the regional conflict. Banks, financial institutions and insurance companies are operating normally without disruptions. (english.news.cn)
- UAE leaders commemorate Zayed Humanitarian Day amid regional crisis — UAE leaders paid tribute to the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan on Zayed Humanitarian Day, reaffirming commitment to his humanitarian legacy. Events included sessions exploring Sheikh Zayed’s vision for cooperation and global humanitarian work, with Mr bin Zayed emphasising how Zayed’s values guide the nation during challenging times. (biztoday.news)
Notes
Notes
UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed visits injured patients and declares nation in 'time of war'
March 07, 2026
ADNOC adjusts oil production and operations amid regional conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
March 4–7, 2026
UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed conducts diplomatic outreach on regional crisis
March 5–8, 2026
Other
India
A US submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka this week while another Iranian vessel docked at an Indian port, forcing New Delhi into its sharpest test yet of staying friendly with everyone.
The submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, killing dozens, just as India allowed the Iranian ship IRIS Lavan to dock at Kochi. The clash happened near Sri Lanka — in waters India sees as its own — creating pressure unlike anything since the Ukraine war began. Narendra Modi, the prime minister, called an urgent meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to manage what one official called the worst crisis since independence.
The incident shows how India’s juggling act is getting harder. During the Ukraine conflict, Mr Modi could abstain from distant votes at the UN. Now he must handle American military action and Iranian diplomatic requests in waters India considers its domain. The government evacuated over 52,000 Indians from the region as airspace closures and flight disruptions spread.
Even as this crisis unfolded, Mr Modi was trying to repair another relationship. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, visited Delhi to rebuild ties after the Khalistan crisis nearly wrecked relations last year. The two countries said they would finish a trade deal by the end of 2026 and struck agreements on critical minerals and semiconductors. Government sources called it a renewed partnership.
The opposition attacked Mr Modi’s foreign policy during the crisis. Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress president, called him Trump’s “slave” and attacked India’s silence on the Iranian supreme leader’s assassination. Rahul Gandhi questioned India’s foreign policy consistency, focusing on American influence over oil purchases and Middle East positioning.
The government launched crisis procedures. S. Jaishankar, the external affairs minister, will brief Parliament on the West Asia situation when the Budget Session resumes. The External Affairs Ministry set up a control room to manage the regional crisis. Meanwhile, Mr Modi opened India’s first ring metro system in Delhi, a 33,500 crore rupee infrastructure project that extended the Pink Line to over 71 kilometres.
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- Amit Shah sets March 31 deadline to eliminate Naxalism, launches development projects — Amit Shah, the union home minister, reiterated government’s commitment to end Naxalism by March 31, 2026, while inaugurating development projects worth thousands of crores across multiple states. Mr Shah praised security forces for anti-Maoist operations and outlined plans for infrastructure development. (thehindu.com)
- Opposition moves no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla — Opposition parties including Congress have submitted a notice seeking removal of Om Birla, the Lok Sabha speaker, accusing him of partisan conduct. The motion is scheduled for debate on March 9, with both BJP and Congress issuing whips to ensure member attendance. (indiatoday.in)
- Nitish Kumar to resign as Bihar Chief Minister for Rajya Sabha move — Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s chief minister, is set to step down to move to Rajya Sabha, paving the way for Modi’s BJP to potentially gain greater control in the politically crucial state. The move represents a significant political realignment in the Hindi heartland. (bloomberg.com)
- Amit Shah grants citizenship to 162 refugees under CAA in Uttarakhand — Amit Shah, the home minister, distributed citizenship certificates to 162 refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan during a Uttarakhand government event marking four years of the Dhami administration. Mr Shah defended the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and outlined government achievements. (tribuneindia.com)
- RBI announces multiple recruitment drives and policy changes — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released notifications for Assistant recruitment (650 posts) and other positions while proposing new guidelines for digital fraud compensation. The central bank also reported widening current account deficit and took measures to support the rupee. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
- BJP releases candidate list for Rajya Sabha elections including party president — The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) announced its first list of candidates for Rajya Sabha elections scheduled for March 16, including Nitin Nabin, the national party president, from Bihar. The party nominated candidates across multiple states as part of the biennial elections. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Notes
Notes
US submarine sinks Iranian warship in Indian Ocean as Iran war reaches India's sphere
March 4–5, 2026
Amit Shah sets March 31 deadline to eliminate Naxalism, launches development projects
March 6–8, 2026
Other
Turkey
Turkey launched one of its largest corruption prosecutions this week, putting 402 defendants on trial including Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, who faces up to 2,430 years in prison on charges of running a criminal organisation. The trial escalates Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s use of the courts to eliminate electoral threats.
Even as the regime tightens its grip through the judiciary, it is reshaping the Kurdish political landscape. The pro-Kurdish Democratic Equality and Peace Party (DEM) may change its name at this year’s congress, with officials suggesting “Democratic Republic Party” or “Democratic People’s Party” as options. The move contradicts previous denials and points to internal restructuring linked to the peace process.
Mr Erdoğan positioned Turkey as the indispensable regional broker during the Iran crisis. He held phone calls with Donald Trump, the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, emphasising Turkey’s readiness to support peace efforts. The diplomacy came after Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Turkish airspace that NATO air defence systems intercepted.
The central bank defended the currency as regional tensions roiled markets. It sold an estimated $7-8 billion in foreign exchange and tightened liquidity conditions to maintain stability. Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister, announced that Turkey’s economy grew 3.6% in 2025, pushing per capita income to $18,040 and qualifying the country for high-income status for the first time.
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- İstanbul Mayor İmamoğlu corruption trial begins amid political tensions — The high-profile corruption trial of jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu begins March 9, with 402 defendants facing charges in what prosecutors call one of Turkey’s largest corruption cases. Mr İmamoğlu, who is the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) presidential candidate, faces up to 2,430 years in prison. (reuters.com)
- Foreign Minister Fidan outlines Turkey’s diplomatic strategy on Iran crisis — Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, gave extensive interviews about Turkey’s efforts to mediate the Iran crisis, warning that the conflict could lead to regime change and outlining potential scenarios. He emphasised Turkey’s role in trying to prevent regional war escalation. (haber7.com)
- MHP leader Bahçeli issues strong statements on Iran crisis and domestic politics — Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), condemned US-Israel attacks on Iran as violations of international law, warned of potential World War III escalation, and discussed the ongoing ‘Terror-Free Turkey’ process. He also made statements about regional stability and internal unity. (sozcu.com.tr)
- Finance Minister Şimşek announces economic growth and policy measures — Mehmet Şimşek, the finance minister, announced Turkey’s economy grew 3.6% in 2025, with per capita income reaching $18,040, qualifying Turkey for high-income country status. He also outlined measures to address inflation and oil price impacts from regional tensions. (yaylahaber.com.tr)
- Erdoğan announces high-level government appointments across 16 ministries — Mr Erdoğan signed decisions for numerous appointments and dismissals across 16 ministries including Education, Culture and Tourism, Agriculture and Forestry, published in the Official Gazette. The appointments include senior bureaucratic positions across various government institutions. (cumhuriyet.com.tr)
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